Framing The World, CXVI Edition

Framing The World, CXVI Edition

In the new issue of Framing we describe the escalation of hostility between Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip, and the State of Israel. Looking at the African continent, however, we analyze the new clashes in Mali between the army and the Azawad separatist groups. On the European front, however, we report the meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council in Kiev regarding the new developments in European support for Ukraine. All this and more in the 116th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Israel, Khaled El Qaisi released from prison but not free. On October 1st, the Israeli court in Rishon LeTzion ruled the release of Khaled El Qaisi, a 27-year-old Palestinian-Italian student. However, he was ordered to stay in the country for seven days and hand over his passport to the authorities. El Quasi, who is currently staying with relatives in Bethlehem, had been arrested by Israel on August 31st and detained for a month without any charges or trial. On October 8th, El Quasi will have to appear before the courts for the sixth time in the hope for his return to Italy. His dual citizenship has prevented him from being tried by a military court, as is usually the case for Palestinians arrested for security reasons.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Jailed Iranian activist awarded Nobel Peace Prize 2023. The 2023 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Iranian activist Narges Mohammadi, vice president of the Centre for the Defence of Human Rights, who has been imprisoned in Iran since 2016. The prize was awarded for her fight against the oppression of women in Iran and her advocacy for human rights and freedom. The Nobel Committee highlighted the courage of Mohammadi, who has been arrested and convicted numerous times, accumulating a sentence of 31 years in prison and 154 lashes. Mohammadi's family, the UN and international leaders greeted the news with joy, while the activist's brother expressed concern for her future in prison and hoped the award would help make Iran a safer place for activists.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Tunisia, Appeal to the International Criminal Court to Investigate Human Rights Violations. The children of four opposition figures detained in Tunisia have called on the International Criminal Court (ICC) to initiate an investigation into alleged human rights violations and political persecution by the government of President Kaïs Saïed. The complaint, sent to The Hague, accuses the government of abuses against political opponents, migrants, judges, trade unions, journalists, and civil society. With at least 41 dissidents recently arrested, this appeal raises serious concerns about the human rights situation in a country that was once considered a democracy emerging from the Arab Spring.

(Sofia Ena)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

EU, inflation falling again. Inflation in the Eurozone fell in September from 5.2 % to 4.3 %, which was lower than expected and fell to the lowest since October 2021. This was mainly due to lower energy costs, but core inflation-which does not take into account energy and food costs-also fell more than expected. Inflation definitely seems to be falling, but not across the entire region: while prices in Germany have weakened significantly, inflation in Spain has rebounded above 3%. For investors, it is to be hoped that the latest data will encourage the European Central Bank (ECB) to stop its long series of interest rate hikes at its meeting later this month. Although inflation is heading in the right direction, it is still more than double the ECB's 2 %target, so the central bank may have to remain aggressive in its monetary policy decisions.

US, new upside surprise. The U.S. added 336,000 new jobs in September, far more than the 170,000 expected and also above August's revised figure of 227,000, reigniting the bond decline that has engulfed global markets in the past two weeks (yields are now at 16-year highs) and fueling investor anxieties that interest rates will remain higher for much longer. The data also showed an unemployment rate of 3.8 %, in line with August and slightly above expectations of 3.7%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2 % monthly, the same as in August but lower than expectations of +0.3%. On this basis the Fed will meet at the end of the month to assess whether its mission to contain inflation is succeeding or whether rates, already at 22-year highs, will have to rise further.

Oil, prices collapse. The recent rally in crude oil-which had lifted the U.S. benchmark above $95 a barrel in late September thanks to robust global demand and the decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend production cuts-fueled speculation that the price would soon break through the $100 level again and forecasts that it was heading toward $150. The situation did not last long, and investors were surprised to see Brent, the global benchmark, fall $5.11 per barrel, or 5.6 %, to $85.81 per barrel, in a single day (the largest one-day drop since August 2022). The WTI equally fell 5.6 % to $84.22, and 13.5 % in just six days. According to analysts, rising interest rates may reduce growth prospects in the short term and negatively impact oil demand, as already seen by the 6.5 million barrel increase in U.S. gasoline inventories in the last week.

London-Paris, who is bigger? Less than a year after losing the title of Europe's largest stock market to Paris, London is on the verge of regaining it. According to Bloomberg, the combined market capitalization of the British listings is $2.90 trillion, compared to Paris' $2.93 trillion. There are two factors favorable to London. First, the British market is heavily weighted to energy stocks, which have taken advantage of the 30% rally in oil over the past three months. Second, inflation is cooling, which could allow the Bank of England to end its 22-month cycle of monetary policy tightening, which in turn would weaken the pound against the dollar, an advantage for an index rich in exporters' stocks. This picture contrasts with Paris, which is under pressure from China's economic slowdown. LVMH, L'Oreal, Hermes International, and Kering account for nearly one-fifth of the CAC 40 index and led the rally at the beginning of the year but have now fallen from their highs because of slowing demand for luxury goods in both China and Europe.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Zimbabwe: cholera epidemic forces government to undertake restrictive measures. Zimbabwe is grappling with a cholera outbreak, with over 100 suspected deaths and more than 5,000 potential cases since the end of the previous month. In response, the government has implemented measures to curb the spread, including restrictions on gatherings in affected regions. The Ministry of Health confirmed 30 deaths from cholera and 905 confirmed cases, with an additional 4,609 suspected cases. The disease is prevalent in overcrowded refugee camps in Zimbabwe, characterized by poor hygiene, high malnutrition rates, and frequent population movements with Somalia. 22 of the 33 countries affected by the current polio epidemic are in African regions monitored by the WHO. The epicenter of the outbreak is Buhera, a southeastern district, but cases have spread to 41 districts, including the capital, Harare.

Nigeria: President Tinubu announces new measures to counter inflation Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has announced a temporary increase in the minimum wage for the lowest-paid workers and cheaper public transport to offset the impact of his recent economic reforms. Just two days ago, the country's two main trade unions planned an "unlimited" strike to protest the rising cost of living, especially transportation. Prices have risen after Tinubu, who took office in May, ended old fuel subsidies and liberalized the naira, the national currency, leading to a significant devaluation. The government claims these reforms are essential to boost Africa's largest economy. While investors have praised the changes, Nigerians have faced tripled gasoline prices and soaring inflation, which has risen to 25%. "Reforms can be painful, but they are what greatness and the future demand," the president said on the 63rd anniversary of the country's independence.

Mali: new clashes erupted in the north between army and rebels. New clashes erupted between the Malian army and armed groups in Bamba, northern Mali, a city that separatist rebels claim to have taken control of. The army reported "intense fighting" against "terrorists" in the early hours on social media, while the rebels stated they had taken control of the area. This message was published on behalf of the Permanent Strategic Framework, effectively dominated by the Coordination of Azawad Movements (Cma), an alliance led by Tuareg separatist groups. Both sides provided no further details. The armed forces were previously targeted on September 7 in Bamba by the Group to Support Islam and Muslims (Gsim or Jnim in Arabic), affiliated with al Qaeda. Since late August, northern Mali has witnessed increased rebel fighting and jihadist attacks, coinciding with the UN mission's withdrawal, prompted by the 2020 junta takeover.

South Sudan: Salva Kiir met Putin to discuss closer ties in energy and trade. South Sudan's President Salva Kiir met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss expanding their bilateral relationship, especially in energy, trade, and oil sectors. The two leaders also addressed political and security issues in South Sudan, which is gearing up for its inaugural presidential election in December 2024. Putin emphasized the role of Russian companies in developing oil refineries in South Sudan, highlighting the ongoing project by Russia's Safinat Group in the Unity state. This meeting comes as global powers seek African nations' support concerning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. South Sudan seeks the removal of arms embargoes, and Russia, a UN Security Council member, could assist. Kiir emphasized the importance of strong allies like Russia for South Sudan's progress.

Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

United States: FBI warns against India. Following the brutal murder involving Sikh representative Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada this June, the FBI has alerted some American citizens, prominent figures within the Sikh community, about the dangerous situation they may have to face. The accusation made by the Canadian Prime Minister against the Indian government has indeed received support from American intelligence services, prompting them to take immediate action to protect their citizens. The FBI, in accordance with the "duty of warn" principle, is obligated to notify American citizens when their lives are in danger. For this reason, Pritpal Singh, coordinator of the American Sikh Caucus Committee, has confirmed to The Guardian that he had been contacted by the FBI and he described the Indian government's actions as an act of "transnational repression." Subsequently, American intelligence services also contacted New York-based journalist Amarjit Singh, who stated that he decided to go public only after the accusations made by Trudeau.

United States: Azerbaijan concerns the US and Russia. A few days before the Azerbaijani military offensive against the Armenian ethnicity, officials from the United States and the European Union met with their Russian counterparts in Turkey in an attempt to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. The meeting took place on September 17th in Istanbul with the aim of convincing Azerbaijan to allow humanitarian aid to reach the area. The meeting marked a rare contact between Moscow and Washington on international security issues since the beginning of the war and, even if no official statements have been released, an anonymous American official confirmed the importance of communicating directly with the Kremlin, as the Russian government maintains a strong influence in the geographical area.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Argentina, Milei leads the polls for the presidential elections on 22 October. Ahead of the first round of the elections to elect a president in Argentina, far-right candidate Javier Milei is enjoying a fair amount of success among the population, and many predictions have him as the favourite. In a country harassed by the economic crisis and tired of incapable governments, trust in the leader of the 'Freedom advances' party is around 35%. His promises to fight organised crime and to restore public finances may have worked in his favour in terms of popular approval; his ban on abortion and his opposition to sex education in schools have tapped into the sensibilities of conservative voters.

(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)

Chile, work continues on the new Constitution. On Wednesday, 4 October, the Constitutional Council approved a draft text of the new Chilean Constitution. Before the popular referendum in December, the text will undergo further changes and corrections. According to experts, the new version will have a strongly conservative structure and will be in continuity with the previous one, which was issued by dictator Augusto Pinochet in 1980. A reform of the Constitution has been debated in the country for some years: the current executive led by progressive leader Gabriel Boric promoted its rewriting, but last September the final text failed to pass popular approval and the project foundered. Now the committee is leaning by composition to the right and there is a risk that the new Constitution will contain rules such as reducing the right to strike and restricting the right to abortion.

(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)

Alessandro Dowlatshahi

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Pakistan, Threat of Expulsion for Unregistered Afghan Refugees. On October 3, 2023, Pakistan's Interior Minister, Sarfraz Bugti, introduced a package of stringent measures targeting "irregular migrants," including many Afghan citizens. This decision particularly affects those who lack the necessary registration documents for their legal stay in the country. According to estimates from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there are over 3.7 million Afghans residing in Pakistan, but only 1.4 million of them are officially registered.

(Sofia Ena)

Sofia Ena

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

EU Nears Formal Negotiations with Ukraine for Accession. The European Union is poised to commence formal negotiations with Ukraine regarding its prospective membership in the bloc. A formal announcement is anticipated to come as early as December, according to three informed diplomats. Leaders within the EU are gearing up to authorize Kyiv to initiate official discussions on joining the 27-member alliance before the year's end. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen underscored Ukraine's significance in this expansion initiative during her recent address to the Parliament. She asserted that Ukraine's destiny lay within the European Union.In November, the European Commission is scheduled to release a "progress report" assessing the extent to which Ukraine and other aspiring members are adhering to the EU's criteria for admission, as revealed by an EU official.

(Sofia Ena)

EU, Meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council in Kiev. During the first days of October, the Foreign Ministers of the European Union Member States, along with High Representative Josep Borrell, gathered in Kiev for an unprecedented meeting outside the EU borders. In an informal session, the Foreign Affairs Council discussed military support for Ukraine, the commitment to a just peace based on the ten conditions proposed by Zelensky, and Ukraine's accession process to the European Union. Additionally, Borrell announced a proposal for a new financial allocation of approximately 5 billion euros to strengthen the European instrument for peace, which will be decided within the framework of the 2021-2027 budget review. This fund will also aim to support the provision of arms to Kiev, thus contributing to Ukraine's efforts to ensure its security and regional stability

(Sofia Ena)

European Political Community, summit in Granada. After the first meeting in Prague in October 2022 and the second in Chisinau in June, 44 heads of state and government from all over Europe (the EU countries and most of the neighbouring countries, excluding Russia and Belarus) gathered in Granada on 5 October for the third European Political Community summit. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not attend and his Azerbaijani counterpart and ally Ilham Aliev denounced a pro-Armenian atmosphere to justify his absence.
This third meeting had been presented as an opportunity to broker peace between warring Armenia and Azerbaijan, defuse tensions in the Balkans and hold a strategic conversation on the security of the continent. However, in the absence of the key players and in the presence of disagreements, there was no progress on tensions and conflicts in the region.
The fourth meeting of the European Political Community will be held in the UK next spring.

(Bianca Franzini)

Spain, consultations to form a government restarted. On 4 October, Socialist Party leader and outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez began consultations to form the new government. The task was given to Sánchez by King Felipe VI after the Popular Party leader Alberto Nuñez Feijóo had failed to gain the confidence of parliament. The outgoing prime minister began consultations by meeting Yolanda Díaz, the leader of the leftist Sumar coalition. Sánchez aims to form an executive by the end of October; the position of the Catalan Independents will be decisive for the formation of the new government.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, Brussels release $172 Billion from EU for Post-Pandemic Recovery: Spain has received EU approval to receive a total of $172 billion for post-pandemic recovery. Of this, 73.2 billion is in the form of grants, with a further 8.1 billion to follow after a recalculation, as well as 2.74 billion to deal with increases in energy prices caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The European Commission cleared USD 87.4 billion in loans, allowing Spain to request up to USD 15.7 billion by 2023. Spain made 52 changes to its recovery plan, including the abandonment of the 'pay-as-you-go' system for motorways in favour of strengthening rail freight transport. These changes are necessary to achieve a fourth disbursement of subsidies worth USD 10.5 billion by 2023.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Bianca Franzini, Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Serbia, Serbian court releases Kosovo Serb politician accused in monastery shooting: The Serbian High Court released Milan Radoicic, a Kosovo Serb politician accused of illegal firearms trafficking and involvement in a deadly shootout with Kosovo police. The court rejected the High Prosecutor's Office's request for custody, but imposed restrictions on Radoicic, forbidding him to leave his place of residence and Serbia without court approval, as well as to travel to Kosovo. He has to report to a police station every 1st and 15th of the month, and his passport has been confiscated. Tensions between Belgrade and Pristina rose following an armed clash in a Serbian monastery in northern Kosovo. Radoicic, deputy chairman of the dominant Serbian party in that region, admitted to involvement. The situation has raised international concerns about stability in Kosovo, with its Albanian majority declaring independence in 2008.

Slovakia, Populist Ex-Prime Minister Wins Slovak Parliamentary Election with Pro-Russian Message: Former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and his left-wing party, Smer (Direction), have won Slovakia's early parliamentary elections, garnering 23.3% of the vote according to the almost complete results. During the election campaign, Fico adopted a pro-Russian and anti-American message, criticising the EU and NATO and rejecting further military aid to Ukraine. He advocated good relations with Russia. However, the liberal Progresivne Slovensko party led in the exit polls. Michal Simecka of the Slovak Progressive Party promised to continue aid to Ukraine and called on Slovaks to 'elect the future' by ridding the country of the 'past' represented by Fico's terms as prime minister. These parliamentary elections mark the ninth vote in the country, which has been independent of the Czech Republic since 1993.

Francesca Pasqualino

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Saudi Arabia, Tajani visits Riyadh to strengthen bilateral relations. The Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani visited the Saudi kingdom between 4 and 5 October with the aim of strengthening political and diplomatic relations. Saudi Arabia, together with the other Gulf countries, is defined as a strategic partner for Italy due to the renewable energy potential it will have available in the coming years. The NEOM project, i.e. the construction of the carbon neutral and zero energy smart city, is an emblematic example. The meeting with the Saudi trade minister Majed Abdallah Alkassabi was defined as particularly fruitful: the development of the kingdom according to the points of Vision 2030 will attract more and more foreign investments, no longer in the hydrocarbon sector, but in renewables, in healthcare digitalisation and in construction sector. Therefore, Italian investors are welcome, as is the idea of making Italy a renewable energy hub that acts as a connection point between the Gulf and Europe. The challenges and uncertainties are still numerous, but the partnerships between Eni and Saudi Aramco and ACWA Power go in this direction.

(Sara Oldani)

Israel, Hamas War: On Saturday morning, the Hamas terrorist faction launched a surprise attack on Israel. In addition to a barrage of rockets, it launched a ground offensive that led to the occupation of several settlements in the vicinity of the Gaza Strip. The first hours of the attack saw a slow and uncoordinated reaction by the Israel Defence Forces. The dead numbered several hundred and the wounded more than a thousand. The government declared a state of war and on Saturday evening promised a decisive response against the terrorist group that dominates the Gaza Strip. This is the biggest failure of intelligence prevention since the Yom Kippur war. Hamas is thus attempting to derail the appeasement process between Israel and some Arab countries, including the Saudi monarchy in particular.

(Michele Magistretti)

Michele Magistretti, Sara Oldani and Francesco Lorenzini

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Venezuela, international arrest warrant for Guaidó. The Venezuelan prosecutor's office has issued an arrest warrant for Juan Guaidó, the main opponent of Nicolás Maduro in exile in the USA, accusing him of embezzling funds belonging to PDVSA, the state oil company. Attorney General Tarek William Saab announced his intention to appeal to Interpol to issue a red notice, which is a request to the authorities of a country to locate, arrest and extradite a criminal or suspected criminal. In April, Guaidó had left Venezuela, denouncing the intensification of threats by the Maduro regime. After taking refuge in Colombia, following the expulsion decided by the Petro government, Guaidó was granted political asylum in the United States.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

United States, agreement with Maduro to repatriate thousands of Venezuelan migrants. The United States announced the resumption of deportations of Venezuelan migrants, marking a turnaround in migration policies from previous years. This decision is the result of the agreement reached with the Maduro regime, and in itself represents a radical change from the policies of the Trump administration, which had broken off diplomatic relations with Caracas by establishing a total embargo. The economic crisis that resulted from the latter led to a massive exodus of Venezuelan migrants to the United States, but the absence of diplomatic relations had complicated the expulsion of those who had entered illegally. However, the need for access to alternative sources of oil, in the face of rising fuel prices linked to the conflict in Ukraine, ultimately led the Biden administration to review relations with Venezuela.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Davide Shahhosseini and Francesco Lorenzini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa