Framing The World, CXX Edition

Framing The World, CXX Edition

In the latest issue of Framing we cover COP28 in Dubai. In addition to highlighting governments' (in)actions regarding the climate crisis, it is the privileged space for international and Middle Eastern diplomacy to discuss the war between Gaza and Israel. All this and much more in the 120th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Kazakhstan, peaceful political activist Marat Zhylynbaev arrested. On 30 November, a court in Astana sentenced Kazakhstani activist and well-known athlete Marat Zhylynbaev to seven years in prison on charges of taking part in the activities of the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK), an unregistered political opposition movement that has been designated - without credible evidence - as an "extremist organisation" since 2018. Zhylanbaev, who has already been arrested on numerous occasions for participating in peaceful demonstrations, has been accused of funding extremist activities and "receiving instructions" from "extremists" based abroad who sought to violently subvert Kazakhstan's "constitutional order". Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International urged the Kazakhstani authorities to immediately release Zhylynbaev and end reprisals against their critics.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Lebanon, proposed media law threatens freedom of expression. The Lebanese Parliament’s Administration and Justice Committee is about to conclude discussions on a new media law that would toughen the penalties already enshrined in the existing 1962 law on publications. The new bill, in addition to increasing prison sentences and fines for insults and defamation, would introduce new penalties such as imprisonment from six months to two years and/or fines for defamation targeting the Lebanese president and prison sentences of up to three years for insulting 'recognised religions'. The Coalition to Defend Freedom of Expression in Lebanon strongly criticised the new proposal, stating that, if approved, it would “severely curtail freedom of expression and press freedom in Lebanon and undermine crucial human rights safeguards”.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Russia, Supreme Court Designates LGBT Movements as Extremist. Russia's Supreme Court, in a closed hearing, has declared the "international LGBT movement" an "extremist organization," a ruling that poses a severe threat to all forms of LGBT rights activism in the country, according to Human Rights Watch. The decision, favoring the Justice Ministry's lawsuit accusing the "LGBT movement" of inciting social and religious discord, raises serious concerns about the persecution of LGBT individuals. Urgent calls have been made for Russian authorities to cease this alarming persecution, and international support is urged to protect those facing extreme risks and persecution in Russia.

(Sofia Ena)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND FINANCE

Binance, a plea deal. After years of investigation, Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency broker, has agreed to plead guilty to several criminal charges, including failing to take basic measures against money laundering, thereby enabling criminal, terrorist, and hacker groups to launder the proceeds of illicit activities. Treasury Secretary Yellen said the company has processed more than 100,000 transactions related to child pornography, drugs and terrorism without ever reporting any suspicious activity. The plea agreement calls for the resignation of the CEO, who will have to pay a $50 million fine and face up to 10 years in jail, and the payment of a $4.3 billion penalty, but Binance will be allowed to continue operations, although for the next five years it will have to report suspicious transactions to a third party monitor.

Inflation, still falling. Eurozone inflation fell much more than expected, dropping to 2.4% in November, the slowest annual pace since July 2021 and down sharply from 2.9% in the previous month. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a more modest slowdown to 2.7%. Lower energy prices and lower growth in food and services prices were the main factors behind the slowdown in the harmonized consumer price index. The drop in inflation prompted some investors to anticipate when the European Central Bank could start cutting deposit rates as early as next April, but others warned that it is still too early to cut rates, especially since higher energy prices are expected to bring eurozone inflation back above 3% in December.

Oil, new cuts. Opec+ countries have approved further voluntary production cuts in an increasingly difficult attempt to support the market, but crude prices have fallen due to tensions within the group. Saudi Arabia extended its current cut of 1 million barrels per day until the end of the first quarter, while Russia will deepen its current voluntary export cut from 300,000 to 500,000 barrels. But in an unusual move, Opec officials made it clear that further voluntary cuts will be announced in due course by individual members and not by the secretariat. Brent, which initially rose on the news, has then reversed course, losing more than 2% and settling near $80, while WTI fell 2.5% to $76. According to traders, the market is beginning to lose confidence in Opec+'s ability to continue supporting the price, hurt by expectations of relatively tepid demand growth for the coming year and increased alternative supplies.

Brazil, unexpected decision. CEO of state oil company Petrobras Jean Paul Prates told Reuters that Brazil will join the OPEC+ group of oil-producing countries in January, but will not participate in the group's coordinated production caps. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's office confirmed it had received the invitation but said it had not formally responded. Brazil is South America's largest oil producer, with 4.6 million barrels per day of oil and gas, including 3.7 million bpd of crude. Prates, who received OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais in Brazil in October, noted that OPEC+ is a group that includes countries without voting rights and on which production caps are not imposed, as would be the case with Brazil. Prates added that the choice will be crucial to OPEC's and Brazil's energy transition efforts. Brazil is expected to formally accept the invitation by June.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Burkina Faso, dozens killed in a jihadistic attack. At least 40 civilians were killed in an attack in Djibo, in northern Burkina Faso."A large number of Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) fighters attacked a military base, homes and Internally Displaced People's camps in the city Djibo, in the Sahel region, killing at least 40 civilians and injuring more than 42," the UN Human Rights Office said. The attack was perpetrated by “several waves of armed groups' for more than three hours. The Burkina Faso Information Agency said that more than 400 terrorists were “destroyed during the counter-offensive by the Burkinabe Armed Forces against nearly 3,000 criminals who tried to seize the town of Djibo”. Burkina Faso, which is ruled by a transitional government after the 2022 coup, is currently grappling with a jihadist insurgency that originated from neighboring Mali in 2015.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Sierra Leone, on Sunday morning a coup was attempted. Armed men tried to break into an armoury at a military base near the president Julius Maada Bio’s home, then attacked two of the city’s main prisons, releasing almost 2,000 of the inmates. At least 19 people, including 13 soldiers, died in the violence, according to the army. The government says 13 military officers and one civilian have been arrested. “The days, weeks, even months leading to Sunday's events, there was no clue, none whatsoever that something of this nature would happen," says Valnora Edwin, a civil society advocate and political analyst based in Freetown."But in hindsight when you put the pieces together, you realise that there was a lot of discontent and something was bound to spark.” Probably the most important problem is connected to high unemployment and a bleak economic outlook. According to the country’s information minister, soldiers were those responsible for Sunday’s attack.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Aurelia Puliafito

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, the Indian government against Sikh activists. Following the accusation made by the US Department of Justice against an unnamed Indian agent, we now have new information regarding the involvement of the Indian government in what seems to be a real policy of attack against Sikh activists worldwide. It has indeed been confirmed that said agent ordered the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh activist killed in June in Canada, and the attack of Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an Indian activist residing in New York. Initially, India did not respond to the accusations until a spokesperson for the Minister of Foreign Affairs declared that the Indian government is actively seeking to address the situation, deemed potentially dangerous for the relations with the United States.

United States of America, airstrikes in Iraq. On Wednesday, November 22nd, in response to the ballistic missile strikes against the American Al-Asad airbase in Iraq, the U.S. government took retaliatory actions. The Biden administration initiated precision strikes against hostile forces, initially targeting a vehicle and subsequently hitting two structures used by the Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iraqi paramilitary group supported by Iran. The U.S. Central Command categorized the American military action as purely defensive and "in direct response to the attacks from Iranians and the groups supported by them." Bassem al-Awadi, spokesperson for the Iraqi government, described the American attacks as an "unacceptable violation" of Iraq's sovereignty while simultaneously condemning the actions of paramilitary groups acting independently of military institutions.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Panama, copper mine closing on Supreme Court ruling. Laurentino Cortizo, president of Panamá, publicly announced the gradual closure of the Combre Panamá copper mine, the largest in Central America, owned by the Canadian company First Quantum. The Supreme Court's ruling stems from the people's complaint against illegal labor contracts, damage to the environment, and comes especially as a result of the renewal of the exploitation contract for the next 20 years, signed last October. The unconstitutionality of the activity, unanimously established by the Court, is defined on November 28 following protests that have animated the country over the past month. Some economists say this closure will have an economic and labor market impact, but at the same time it could generate a recovery in tourism.

(Serena Basso)

Venezuela-Guyana dispute over the Essequibo region. The government of Nicolás Maduro has announced the convening of a referendum on December 3 with the aim of asking its citizens whether they wish to incorporate the Essequibo region into their nation, currently under the control of Guyana. Guyana is a sovereign state that gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1966 and has obviously opposed this possibility. The Essequibo region, comparable in size to Greece and rich in oil resources, is an integral part of Guyana in the East of Venezuela and is at the center of a territorial dispute that has been ongoing since 1811, characterized by various historical interpretations of the colonial period. The referendum questions include the possibility of proclaiming Essequibo as an autonomous state within Venezuela, guaranteeing Venezuelan citizenship to the inhabitants of the region. Moreover, the referendum proposal is to revoke the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice on territorial issues related to the region.

(Alessia Boni)

Argentina, the election of the new president of Boca Juniors postponed due to irregularities. According to the club's bylaws, ownership of the club is shared between more than 300,000 fans, 100,000 of whom have the right to choose the patron every four years. Scheduled for 3 December, voting was postponed to 17 this month due to a ruling by the National Court of Buenos Aires, which found 'irregularities and anomalies in the register of members'. Specifically, in recent months as many as 13,000 members have changed from simple supporters to voting members, and this has raised suspicions in one of the two presidential candidates, pro-government economist Andres Ibarra, who has decided to file a complaint. According to Ibarra, there was a 'political strategy' behind these new entries aimed at rewarding the election of his rival, Juan Roman Riquelme, former star of the Xeneizes. The former Boca number 10, firm in his intention to safeguard the club's civil and non-profit vocation, has always declared himself against the newly elected President Milei's proposal to privatise football clubs in Argentina. The installation of the anarcho-capitalist at the head of the country, therefore, could also have significant repercussions in the sporting and social spheres and risk distorting certain dynamics firmly rooted in the habits of people in the country.

(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)

Alessandro Dowlatshahi, Serena Basso and Alessia Boni

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Nepal, registration of same-sex marriage for the first time. In a historic move, a municipality in Nepal, for the first time, adhered to an interim order issued by the country's Supreme Court, granting recognition to same-sex marriages. On November 29, officials in Dordi, located in the couple's home district of Lamjung, officially acknowledged the marriage of Maya Gurung and Surendra Pandey. Maya Gurung, a transgender woman legally recognized as male, and Surendra Pandey, a cisgender man, celebrated a Hindu wedding ceremony in 2017. Their quest for legal recognition began in June of this year at the Kathmandu District Court, aligning with an interim order from Nepal's Supreme Court, urging authorities to register same-sex marriages while the court considers a case advocating for marriage equality nationwide.

Sofia Ena

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

The EU at Cop28. From 30 November to 12 December the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the European Union and its member states, are meeting in Dubai for the 28th UN climate conference. The European Union is represented by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel and the Spanish Council Presidency. The conclusions on the EU position had been approved last October. With these, the Council had emphasised the importance of securing a fair transition with sustainable economies and societies and the need for increasingly ambitious actions to safeguard the planet, so that the 1.5 degree target remains attainable. Furthermore, in its conclusions, the Council calls for a fully or mostly decarbonised global energy system in the 2030s, more funding by all countries to support climate action, and more action to integrate climate change adaptation into countries' policies.

(Bianca Franzini)

Italy, PNRR approved by the EU Commission. The European Commission has approved Italy's revised EUR 194 billion recovery and resilience plan, including the REPowerEU chapter.
The revised plan includes 145 measures. Among others, it is an ambitious plan with regard to connectivity: the aim is to improve the digitalisation of the public administration and enterprises and to stimulate the development of digital skills and technologies among different sectors and levels.
The measures aim to speed up the spread and use of renewable energies in Italy, to facilitate the production of biomethane and to accelerate the diffusion of the skills needed for the green transition. The plan's reforms are to be complemented by a series of investments to increase the efficiency and safety of the electricity grid, to increase hydrogen production and to strengthen the zero-emission transport sector.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, European Defence Agency Conference. At the annual conference of the European Defence Agency (EDA) in Brussels, held in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European Union officially changed its perspective from a peace project to a more robust security strategy. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced this transition, emphasizing the need to "fortify our continent". Data presented during the event showed a significant 6% increase in EU military spending in 2022, reaching 240 billion euros, with further increases in 2023, exceeding 270 billion euros. During the conference he stressed that out of 27 Member States, 20 increased their military spending, highlighting significant contributions from Sweden, Spain and Greece. In addition, the EDA submitted 46 joint defense projects worth a total of EUR 250 million. In addition, von der Leyen announced the imminent presentation of a European programme for the defense industry in the coming year, aiming for joint planning and more efficient rules. Military assistance of EUR 5.6 billion to Ukraine, coordinated at EU level, has emerged as a key element, signaling a strong EU commitment to international security.

(Sofia Ena)

Spain, Prime Minister Ready to Recognize State of Palestine Defying EU Opinion: Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, said Madrid is open to unilaterally recognizing a Palestinian state, even if it would go against EU opinion. During a press conference on the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing, Sanchez said the time has come for the international community, particularly the European Union and its member states, to recognize the State of Palestine. He expressed the hope that the recognition will take place simultaneously with the participation of at least some member states, but made it clear that if this does not happen, Spain will make autonomous decisions. The Belgian Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo, accompanied Sanchez on his tour of Israel, Palestine and Egypt, jointly stressing the need for Israel to protect the civilian population in Gaza and to respect international humanitarian law. The statement prompted Israel to summon the Spanish and Belgian ambassadors for a "firm condemnation."

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Bianca Franzini, Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Greece-Turkey, channels of cooperation between the two countries open again: A new High-Level Cooperation Council (HLCC) meeting between Greece and Turkey will be held on Dec. 7, after a seven-year hiatus marked by extreme tensions in Greek-Turkish relations. The meeting is seen as a further step toward improving relations, underscoring the mutual desire for cooperation and normalization in relations. After the conclusion of the first phase of the roadmap agreed upon by the foreign ministers of the two countries, the goal is to achieve calm and seal improvements with mutually beneficial agreements for both nations. The resumption of HLCC meetings is a positive sign after the "positive agenda" of 2021, which promoted economic, trade and business cooperation. The Dec. 7 meeting will cover several areas, including entrepreneurship, tourism, transportation, energy, science, technology, agriculture, environment, social security.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Russia, Concerns Grow Over EU Attempts to Recover Chemical Weapons: Last Friday, Nov. 24 The director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's 2nd European Department, Sergey Belyaev, expressed concern over the European Union's attempts to recover World War II chemical weapons from the Baltic Sea. He stressed the need for discussion on international platforms such as the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM) and environmental risk assessment. Belyaev warned that uncoordinated actions and involvement of non-core facilities can have regrettable consequences for the entire Baltic region. After the war, tens of thousands of tons of chemical munitions were submerged in the Baltic Sea. The media report that German authorities are considering a recovery program.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Hungary, Budapest may soon unlock 10 billion in EU funds. Judicial reform adopted last May has been deemed satisfactory by the European Commission and could, therefore, lead to the release of 10 billion in cohesion funds earmarked for Hungary, previously frozen due to concerns over the rule of law. The Commission is monitoring the impact of the reforms on judicial independence, and should Brussels finally approve, Member States could be asked to comment on the decision at the next European Council on December 14 and 15. Of the blocked funds, 6.3 billion are related to the "conditionality mechanism" for issues related to public procurement and conflicts of interest, while the rest of the funds are related to issues such as the "right to academic freedom" and the protection of LGBTQ+ rights. Prime Minister Orbán has accused Brussels of "financial blackmail" and could play the veto card during the Dec. 14-15 summit, where Ukraine's accession and financial assistance to Kiev will be discussed.

(Alessandro Alloro)

Serbia, expelled Croatian diplomat Hrvoje Snajder. Last week, under Article 9 of the Vienna Convention, Serbia expelled Croatian diplomat Hrvoje Snajder. The Serbian Foreign Ministry said Snajder allegedly violated diplomatic norms between the two countries, without, however, specifying the nature of the violation. According to Zagreb, the expulsion had to do with the Serbian parliamentary elections scheduled for December 17. This event has undoubtedly led to a deterioration of diplomatic relations between the two nations, which enemies during the wars of the 1990s, had found ways to improve their relations including through several meetings between the leaders of the two countries in recent months.

(Alessandro Alloro)

Francesca Pasqualino and Alessandro Alloro

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Israel, between ceasefire and diplomatic crises: the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas lasted a week, with several extensions. Hamas released about a hundred hostages, out of a total of 240, while Israel released about two hundred imprisoned Palestinians. This diplomatic result was brokered by Doha, known for hosting the terrorist group's top leadership for years. Meanwhile, the diplomatic crisis between Israel and Spain precipitated. During the Spanish Prime Minister's trip to the Middle East, frictions began, triggered by Sanchez's statements regarding the conduct of Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip. At first Israel summoned the Spanish ambassador, then decided to withdraw its own from Madrid, after Sanchez's recent interview in which the Spanish head of government reiterated his skepticism about the conduct of the Israeli army.

(Michele Magistretti)

Dubai, at COP28 the "hot" topics are global warming and the war in Gaza. During the relay passage from Egypt to the United Arab Emirates, during the opening ceremony of the 28th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry called for a minute of silence for all the civilian victims who died during the conflict. COP28, also given its geographical location, will be used as a diplomatic center to continue negotiations on developments in the war in Gaza; Israeli President Herzog and President of the Palestinian National Authority Abbas arrived in Dubai on Friday. Contrary to expectations, the emirate has allowed a certain form of freedom of expression, in fact already on Thursday 30 November numerous environmental activists demonstrated harshly criticizing governments' inactivity in the face of the climate threat. In particular, activists in the MENA area have linked the inability of governments (especially Western) to take charge of economic reparations in the countries they damaged during colonial (and in some cases post-colonial) mandates to the desire instead to intervene through sending armaments and military support to Israel in the war on Gaza. These activists are also loudly calling for a ceasefire, because sustainability is not only ecological, but must be based on justice, equity and peace between peoples.

(Sara Oldani)

Michele Magistretti and Sara Oldani

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

East Jerusalem, killed and injured in a bus stop attack. The two attackers, brothers Murad and Ibrahim Namr, were killed in the firefights with Israeli forces, which followed the attack that killed three people and wounded six others. According to the Shin Bet, Israel's internal intelligence service, the two men responsible for the attack are said to be members of the radical Islamist group Hamas. Moreover, the al-Qassam Brigade, the military wing of Hamas, itself claimed the attack, calling the two brothers 'martyrs'. The attack was reportedly in response to the killing of four Palestinians, including an eight-year-old boy, by the Israeli army in Jenin, West Bank, in the previous days.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Russia, Supreme Court outlaws LGBT activities. According to the Russian Supreme Court, the international public LGBT movement is an extremist movement and has decreed the suspension of all its activities in the country. The decision, without specifying a specific organization, states that there are 'signs of an extremist nature' in LGBTQ+ activities in Russia, including incitement to social and religious discord. This move represents the most severe crackdown on LGBTQ+ rights in Russia. According to activists, the vague definition of the ruling means that the Russian authorities are given a wide margin for interpreting it, which can be used to crack down on LGBTQ+ initiatives in general.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Davide Shahhosseini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandro Alloro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Alessandro Dowlatshahi: Latin America

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa

Serena Basso: Latin America