Egypt's stance in the Israel-Hamas conflict: navigating multiple crises with strategic caution.

Translated by Valeria D’Alessandro

Among the neighboring countries, Egypt is suffering the most from the direct consequences of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Egypt is attempting to maintain a balance between the two parties, advocating for dialogue between the parts at war. Its government must weight and balance its actions between the need for internal stability and the desire to maintain the regional status quo.

In the following part we are going to have a look at the reasons behind the actions of the Egyptian government regarding a conflict that is impacting the region.

Colossus with feet of clay: the Egyptian moderation strategy

Since the outset of the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, Egypt sought to mediate between the conflicting parties, both to achieve a ceasefire and to ease the release of Israeli hostages. For years, Cairo has been marginalized, against its will, in the regional politics. During the political feud among Gulf countries, Egypt aligned with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi against Doha. Egypt's alignment was due to its dependence on financial aid from powerful countries in the Arabian Peninsula, preventing it from asserting significant strategic autonomy. Egypt then had to confront the jihadist insurgency on the Sinai Peninsula. Moreover, the diplomatic conflict with Ethiopia continues due to its intention to build a dam on the Nile River, which would cause significant damage to the Egyptian economy. Additionally, the North African country must focus most of its attention on the recent civil conflict ongoing in Sudan, which is causing hundreds of thousands of refugees to flee the country.

Furthermore, the military offensive conducted by the Houthi rebels in the waters of the Red Sea is causing significant damages to the maritime traffic and great concert within the Egyptian leadership. Part of the Egyptian economy depends on the transportation of goods through the Suez Canal. The blockage or drastic reduction of these flows would irreversibly damage an economy already in great distress.

For these reasons, Egyptian President Al-Sisi, preferred to maintain a cautelous approach, while holding two firm positions: the necessity of stopping the conflict and the categorical refusal to accept millions of Gazans refugees. Being a country in perpetual financial distress, it would be difficult for Egypt to accept refugees and support their relative expenses. Moreover, Egyptian officials are concerned that Islamic radicalism could spread among a population that has suffered of an ethnic cleansing and of a forced diaspora. The Egyptian economy is tormented by inflation, by the devaluation of its currency and by an endemic poverty among the population. After banning the Muslim Brotherhood from Egypt – Hamas is their Palestinian branch – the military leaders fear the return of political radicalism and internal instability as well. Despite attempting to establish a humanitarian aid corridor through the Rafah border crossing, the only one not controlled by Israel, Egypt has also reinforced the Southern barrier with the Strip and has mobilized some of its army armored unites at the border with the Palestinian enclave.

Egypt promoted several plans for a ceasefire, following Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic actions, but both Hamas and Israel have continued rejecting them, for different reasons. They have also made counter proposal that do not meet at all the other part’s request. Cairo, for its part, is reluctant to take an active role in the administration and management of Gaza in a potential post-war scenario. “Entering Gaza” would mean taking on a major role in the complex Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This eventuality would drag Egypt into a volatile and highly precarious scenario. Possible internal repercussions would be hard to bear for the establishment. Moreover, , Egyptian executives, mindful of their Jordanian ally’s experience, are wary of assuming full responsibility for managing Palestinian refugees. Ceteris paribus, if the Israeli offensive is going to continue in the Southern part of the Strip, Egypt could find itself forced to consent to welcoming some of the Palestinian refugees. In this case then, the refugees could be used as a bargaining chip to request abundant financial aids.

 

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