Framing The World, CI Edition

Framing The World, CI Edition

For the 101th issue of Framing the World we deal with the renewed tensions in Israel, as well as relations between the United States and China. We also remember the Day of Remembrance, and the anniversary of the disappearance of Giulio Regeni in Egypt.

All this and more in the 101th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Finland, new trans rights laws on gender recognition. On February 1st, the Finnish parliament passed a new law abolishing the requirements of sterilisation and a psychiatric diagnosis, making it easier for transgender people to change their gender. Under previous legislation, which was in breach of the European Convention on Human Rights, a person had to provide proof of infertility before they could be granted legal gender recognition. Under the new gender law, recognition will be available for adults upon written application after a mandatory 30-day ‘period of reflection’. Matti Pihlajamaa, LGBT+ rights advisor at Amnesty International Finland, welcomed this decision saying that “Finland has taken a major step towards protecting trans people’s rights, and improving their lives and right to self-determination”.

Holocaust Remembrance Day. The 27th of January marked the 78th anniversary of liberation of the Auschwitz-Birkenau concentration camp by troops of the 60th Army of the first Ukrainian Front led by Marshal Ivan Konev. The anniversary, already commemorated by some countries, in Germany since 1996 and in Italy since 2001, was established worldwide on the 1st November 2005 by the United Nations, on the 60th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. The theme chosen this year to remember the victims of the Holocaust was 'Home and Belonging'. The aim is to highlight the humanity of the victims and survivors of the Holocaust and at the same time oppose incitement to hatred, antisemitism, prejudice, Holocaust distortion and denial.

Seven years since Giulio Regeni’s disappearance. Seven years have passed since 25th January 2016, the day on which Giulio Regeni, a 28-year-old researcher from Friuli, was kidnapped in Cairo and found dead nine days later with signs of torture. After the first few years of deception, in December 2018 the Rome Public Prosecutor's Office entered in the register of suspects the names of five - later four - Egyptian military personnel believed to be responsible for Regeni's kidnapping. In January 2021, the case also reached the EU Foreign Affairs Council. Since then, however, the trial for the four military personnel has been suspended twice and will be discussed on February 13rd. In the meantime, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani reported that he met Egyptian President al-Sisi and that the latter assured him that “Egypt will do everything to remove the obstacles that exist and that make dialogue with Italy difficult”.

Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

Adani, billions up in smoke. Hindenburg Research, an investment research firm, said it has uncovered the worst corporate fraud ever. The Adani Group, controlled by Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, until mid-January the third richest man in the world with a net worth of $119 billion, allegedly used at least 38 front companies in Mauritius to manipulate profits, while audits are allegedly carried out, inappropriately, by a small company with only 15 employees, in contrast to the hundreds of companies that are part of the group. Adani first dismissed the allegations as unfounded and then painted them as an attack on the entire Indian economy, but the markets do not seem to be listening: in just a few days, Adani has lost $60 billion, while the value of his companies has dropped by about $108 billion.

Federal Reserve, no surprises. The Federal Reserve, as widely expected, raised interest rates by only 25 basis points, slowing the pace of increases for the second consecutive time and bringing rates to a range of 4.5 % to 4.75 %. Chairman Powell considers this decision consistent with the goal of returning inflation to 2 % and coherent with early signs of slowing inflation, going so far as to announce that "the deflationary process has started" and hinting that the rate hikes could end as early as this spring. After these words, markets took off (Nasdaq +5% in two days, S&P +3%), only to be brought back down to earth by labor market data.

US, unemployment drops again. While Big Tech continues to announce job cuts (4,000 for IBM, 10,000 for Microsoft, 12,000 for Google, 18,000 for Amazon), some companies in the "old" economy of industry and services are going in the opposite direction: Airbus, for example, will hire 13,000 workers to meet the growing demand for airplanes, while fast-food restaurant Chipotle plans 15,000 hires as it opens new restaurants in the coming months. This may partly explain why the latest U.S. employment report showed unemployment falling to a record low of 3.4 % and 517,000 jobs created versus the 190,000 expected. Markets, intimidated by the possibility that this will prompt the Fed to hike rates further, closed the session down sharply, but still positive for the week.

Tesla and Meta, off to a strong start. Two of the companies that suffered most during 2022 started the new year in a completely different spirit and were rewarded by investors. Tesla's quarterly figures beat analysts' forecasts, and the company now estimates that it can sell 1.8 -2.0 million cars in 2023 thanks to new factories in Germany and China and lower sticker prices: on the stock market, the rise is 75 % since January 1. Meta, weighed down by billion-dollar investments for the "metaverse," had lost nearly 75% in 2022, but the use of artificial intelligence that helped increase daily users and cost cuts (including 11,000 layoffs) seem to have restored optimism: since the November lows, the stock is up 106%.

IMF, higher growth estimates. For the first time in 12 months, the International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast, according to which the world economy, after the Chinese reopening and falling energy prices in Europe, is expected to grow 2.9 % in 2023 and 3.1 % the following year. The only major economy for which the estimates have been downgraded is the United Kingdom, the only country expected to contract due to tax increases, labor force reductions, and rising interest rates, while even Russia, despite sanctions, is expected to see a positive sign. This optimism was immediately followed by the European GDP data, which also surprisingly grew in Q4 (+0.1%), although only thanks to the Irish figure (+3.5%).

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Congo: Pope Francis "Hands off Africa!" The Pope is making the biggest of his trips to Africa, in particular on an apostolic visit to the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan. His first homily on African soil was accompanied by the presence of more than one million people, who listened to the pontiff's words. In particular, Pope Francis made a strong appeal, saying 'Hands off the Democratic Republic of Congo, hands off Africa! Stop suffocating Africa'. Indeed, the pontiff explained that the African continent is not a mine to be exploited and a land to be plundered. Francis explained how, after the political one, an equally enslaving 'economic colonialism' has in fact been unleashed in Africa. The exploitation of Africa, he said, 'is a drama before which the economically more advanced world often closes its eyes, ears and mouth'. During his homily, the Pope called on the Congolese authorities to invest in young people and their education.


Zimbabwe: Lukashenko visiting. President Lukashenko of Belarus has made his first mission to sub-Saharan Africa. The BBC pointed out that Lukashenko's trip follows the signing of several important trade agreements worth $350 million between the two countries, including the supply of agricultural machinery. Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnagagwa visited Minsk in 2019, the same year that the Belarusian president published on his official website the great opportunities his government saw in cooperation between Belarus and Zimbabwe. Economic relations between the two countries have grown over the past seven years. According to the African nation's state media, more agreements are expected to be signed during his visit in the areas of energy, manufacturing, transport and logistics.


Andrea Ghilardi

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, Waiting for Blinken in Beijing. During the weekend U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will fly to Beijing to try and reopen relations with the Chinese government, which will start focusing more on the economy of the country, other than the COVID-19 emergency. But, how did we get here? Blinken stated that at the G20 meeting, in Bali, President Biden and President Xi had a friendly conversation, opening up to new lines of communication between the United States and China. About the trip, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that "China welcomes Secretary Blinken's visit to China". He also said that they "hope the US will walk with China in the same direction, and implement the consensus reached by leaders of both countries [...] so that ties between countries can resume the healthy and stable course of development". The allusion to the "same direction" might be connected to what happened during the visit in Taiwan by the former Democratic House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, August 2022, that brought to a huge outrage in China. Without any other details, we are all waiting to see if this visit will be the starting point of a brand new "Ping Pong Democracy".

United States of America, are the F-16s flying to Ukraine? Asked if the U.S. would send warplanes to help Ukraine in the war against Russia, American President Joe Biden responded "no". But there is more than that: as a matter of fact, an U.S. official stated that "there has been no serious, high-level discussion about F-16s", a fighter aircraft developed by General Dynamics. That being said, it could also be possible that President Biden meant "not now", instead of a strict "no", given that, during an interview from MSNBC, deputy national security adviser Jon Finer stated that the U.S. would be discussing the matter "very carefully" with Kyiv and its allies. The United States could also approve the re-export of F-16s from third-party countries, opening up a different way to support the Ukrainian resistance. At the same time, Poland itself seems inclined to provide the F-16s to Ukraine, as said by Andriy Yermak, a top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Chile, extended an emergency declaration. another region is under emergency as firefighters struggled to control dozens of wildfires that have killed at least 23 people. The latest emergency order on Saturday covers the southern region of Araucania, next to the previously declared Biobio and Nuble regions, located near the middle of the South American country’s long Pacific coastline.

Ludovica Costantini

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Myanmar, the military junta announces the state of emergency extension. Myanmar's military regime has announced a six-month extension of the state of emergency, which will effectively delay the elections promised by the junta itself. The extension began on February 1, 2023, the anniversary of the coup led by army general Min Aung Hlaing who, having taken control of the country, ousted and placed the elected democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest. The coup d'état plunged the country into a deep political, economic and social crisis. Popular protests, initially peaceful demonstrations of dissent, slowly turned into real armed clashes in many areas of the country. Starting from this year, several areas have been under martial law, a situation that has led to the emergence of groups known as the “Popular Defense Forces”. According to data shared by the Association of Assistance to Political Prisoners (AAPP), to date the junta has arrested more than 17,000 political opponents and killed more than 1,000.

Japan enhances security cooperation with the United States. According to what was reiterated during a "two and two" format meeting held on January 11, 2023, involving the Japanese ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense, and the US secretaries of State and Defense, cooperation between Washington and Tokyo is entering a new phase. Following growing uncertainties regarding China, the representatives of the two countries have decided "to carry forward bilateral modernization initiatives to build a more capable, integrated and agile Alliance that strengthens deterrence and faces the changing challenges to regional and global security". During the talks the two sides expressed approval of each other's National Security Strategies and National Defense Strategies and declared their intention to strengthen US military capabilities in the southwestern islands of Japan, in proximity to Taiwan. The talks took place a few weeks after Kishida government's decision to double the country's military spending, bringing it to 2% and veering from the traditional defensive approach that characterized postwar Japan.


Alessandra Tamponi 

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

EU-Ukraine summit visit to Kiev. Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel, High Representative Josep Borrell and 16 other commissioners of the EU executive met in Kiev with President Volodymyr Zelensky and officials of his government on February 3. The participants talked about the 10th sanctions package against Russia (which will be agreed with the G7 countries and should enter into force on 24 February, one year after the Russian aggression), military support for Ukraine and the importance of the allied front against Russia. Ukraine's EU accession process was also discussed. The EU delegation stated that Ukraine's future lies in the Union. However, while Kiev pushes for membership in the immediate future, the EU demands guarantees on reforms and the achievement of specific goals by Ukraine.

UK public sector on strike. Since February 1 there have been major strikes in the UK, mainly involving the public sector. Initial union estimates speak of around half a million workers taking to the streets to demand better working conditions and higher wages. The strikes of the past few days have mainly involved teachers, railway workers, civil servants. However, this is only a part of the wave of strikes that has been going on since the end of 2022, when it was mainly postmen, physiotherapists, nurses, and drivers who went on strike to protest against cuts in public services (especially health, education and transport). However, the government seems unwilling to give too generous wage increases, which could make high inflation chronic. Other strikes have already been planned until the end of March.

Lower Austria, the extreme right continues to grow. The state elections of January 29 in Lower Austria (the country's largest federal state) saw the historic defeat of the conservative ÖVP and the social democratic SPÖ party, while the extreme right continued its growth. The Austrian People's Party lost its absolute majority in Lower Austria, forcing it to seek a provincial coalition for the first time in twenty years. The anti-immigration Freedom Party rose to second place with 25.4% and the Social Democrats came third with 20.7%. Despite gaining 10 percentage points fewer votes than in the last election, the People's Party is still first with 39.7%. The Freedom Party is the clear winner of these elections and now looks set to win the federal elections in 2024. Interior Minister Gerhard Karner stated that after this election 'right-wing identity extremists have once again demonstrated the danger they pose to democracy'.

Bianca Franzini

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Israel, weeks of bloodshed: Israeli military forces raided the Jenin refugee camp in an operation to neutralise terrorists. Ten Palestinians died in the clashes. In retaliation for this intervention, two Palestinian terrorists, apparently lone wolves not linked to any organisation, carried out two attacks in Jerusalem over the next two days. In the first, seven people were killed coming out of a synagogue in an ultra-Orthodox neighbourhood of the city. There was also a rocket launch from Gaza into Israel, which reacted by bombing the Strip. The Israeli government is ready to further liberalise the carrying of weapons in the belief that this will help deterrence. In addition, a tightening of legislation is under consideration that would affect the legal status of family members of terrorists.

(Michele Magistretti)

Tunisia, record abstention even in the second round of legislative elections. 11.3%, this is the figure for participation in the second round of the elections for the new Tunisian Parliament, which were held on January 29th. The figure slightly differs from 11.2% achieved in the first round. A result that points to the Guinness Book of Records: such a high abstention rate has rarely been seen worldwide. A disheartening fact for President Saied who has no more excuses after a flop of this magnitude. As evidence of the embarrassment of the executive, the ISIE (Independent Higher Institute for Elections) tried to prevent the media from accessing the electoral offices. However, the effects of the vote will be marginal for an Assembly that has little need for popular support. Parliament, which will meet for the first time on March 4th, was stripped of a large part of its traditional powers with the constitutional reform of 2022. The main opposition parties - which did not participate in the vote as a form of protest – clamored immediately for the resignation of the President and the organization of new legislative elections.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Michele Magistretti e Francesco Lorenzini

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

United States, suspected Chinese "spy balloon" over Montana skies. According to reports from the U.S. Department of Defense, the alleged "spy balloon," spotted in Montana airspace on Wednesday, is reportedly flying at a height above civil and commercial air routes and posing neither a physical nor military threat. Washington's accusations of espionage were answered by Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who said that the "balloon" would actually be a civilian airship used for meteorological research purposes, which had seen its trajectory mistakenly diverted toward U.S. territory due to adverse weather conditions.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Philippines, new military cooperation agreement between Manila and Washington. The new arrangement was announced during the visit of U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to Manila on Thursday. Based on the new agreement, which replaces one signed in 2014 that guaranteed the U.S. military to have garrisons at five Philippine military bases, the United States will be able to station contingents at as many bases in the country. Washington thus gains the ability to further increase its military presence in a focal point of China's maritime containment strategy.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Mali, uncertain future for the MINUSMA mission. On 27 January, the United Nations Security Council met to discuss the report by Secretary General Guterress on the progress of the MINUSMA peacekeeping mission in Mali. Gueterres underlined the impossibility of being able to maintain the status quo, in light of the behavior of the military junta currently in power in Mali. The UN particularly complains about the obstacles placed on the freedom of movement of peacekeepers. There are two options on the table: increase the number of soldiers by another 3,000 soldiers compared to the current 12,000 in order to strengthen the capacity to carry out the mandate, or close the mission. The American and French ambassadors supported Guterres' position stating their willingness to re-examine the appropriateness of their support for the operation. However, the Malian Minister of Foreign Affairs counterattacked, denouncing the lack of respect for the security needs of his people. The Russian ambassador stressed that the host country's position must carry more weight in the decision, accusing the Western powers of neocolonialism. MINUSMA, launched in 2013 in the face of pressure from jihadist groups on the Bamako government, has suffered greatly in recent months due to the withdrawal of French contingents and other European states.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Burkina Faso, the ruling junta calls for the withdrawal of French troops. On January 24th, the Burkinabe government notified France the denunciation of the agreement with which in 2018 it had consented to the presence of French troops on its territory to fight against jihadist groups. With this act, the military junta requests the conclusion of the Sabre operation and the return of the 400 personnel belonging to the French special forces within a month. The decision is closely linked to the rapprochement of the Ouagadougou regime, which came to power with a coup d'état in September 2022, with the Russian Federation. On 26 January the French government decided to recall its ambassador in Burkina Faso to proceed with consultations. The troops will presumably be moved to neighboring Niger, where France already disposes of more than 2,000 troops.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Davide Shahhosseini and Francesco Lorenzini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Chiara Giovannoni: Human Rights

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Elisa Maggiore: Latin America

Federico Pani: North America

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Laura Salvemini: Asia and the Far East

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Samuele Abrami: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa