Framing The World, CXIII Edition

Framing The World, CXIII Edition

In the new issue of Framing we deal with elections, from South America with the victory of the left-wing candidate Arévalo in Guatemala, to Spain and the task entrusted to the PP of forming the new government. We will also talk about the environment, with the news of the start of the spill operations of the contaminated waters of Fukushima in the Pacific. All this and more in the 113th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Ghana, death penalty partially abolished. On 25 July, Ghana's parliament eliminated the use of capital punishment for crimes such as murder, genocide, piracy and smuggling, making it the 29th African country to abolish the death penalty. Although the country has not carried out executions since 1993, this decision will allow the 176 people currently on death row to see their sentence commuted to life imprisonment. However, in cases of acts of high treason, the courts can still hand down death sentences. “Although a landmark decision, the total abolition of this draconian punishment would not be complete without revising the constitution”, said Samira Daoud, Amnesty International's director for West and Central Africa.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Greece, migrants dead in Evros wildfire. Has risen to 26 the number of people, presumably migrants and refugees, who died between 21 and 22 August as a result of fires in the Evros region. The area is a frequent entry point for irregular migrants attempting to enter Greece from Turkey. As denounced by Adriana Tidona, Amnesty International's immigration researcher, this tragedy highlights 'two great injustices of our times'. On the one hand, climate change, with rising temperatures and governments unable to tackle the problem. On the other hand, the lack of access to legal and safe routes for people on the move and illegal rejections by local authorities. Tidona also added that the number of victims could rise if the Greek authorities fail to evacuate the hundreds of migrants stranded in different areas of the region in time.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Sudan, sexual violence against women and girls in Western Darfur. The armed conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has plunged the country into the abyss of inhuman violence. In the territory of Western Darfur, numerous cases of sexual violence and abuses are perpetrated by armed groups and the Rapid Support Forces, causing women and girls to confine themselves within their own homes. Among the most severely affected victims are activists and women belonging to the Masalit ethnicity, who endure even graver consequences.

(Sofia Ena)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

​​China, economic difficulties. An unexpected decision comes from the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, which to address the country's economic woes announced that it has cut its benchmark one-year (medium-term) rate by 15 basis points to 2.5% and its short-term (7-day) rate by 10 points. The decision comes on the heels of the country's descent into deflation, caused mainly by falling domestic demand, the suspension of the publication of the youth unemployment rate, which rose to 21% in July and now needs "statistical improvement," and a day before the default of manufacturer Evergrande, which revealed losses of $81 billion in 2021 and 2022.

Japan, better than expected. Excellent news from Japan's economy, which posted an annualized growth of 6 percent in the second quarter over the previous quarter, more than double what economists had forecast and the best figure in three years. The figure was positively affected by the export boom, which more than offset the disappointing performance of private consumption and private investment. In fact, one-third of the quarterly growth was attributable to a combination of overseas car sales, yen weakness and a reopening to international tourism.

Uk, inflation easing. Consumer prices in the U.K. rose 6.8 percent in July, a marked slowdown from June's +7.9 percent but slightly worse than expected (6.7 percent). The decline was aided by a substantial drop in energy prices, but the Bank of England's struggle with inflation still is not over for two reasons: core inflation (which excludes food and energy) remained unchanged at +6.9%, and services rose from +7.2% in June to +7.4% in July.

Italy, a negative surprise. Italy's economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, down 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, worse than the zero growth estimated by analysts. Italian statistics agency ISTAT attributes the slowdown to a drop in domestic demand, with industry and agriculture particularly hard hit. The data illustrate how the eurozone's third-largest economy is beginning to feel the effects of rising interest rates, weakening global demand for exports and reduced fiscal support. Although the contribution of tourism could lift the situation, the global slowdown in manufacturing led by China is taking its toll on Italy (and also Germany, two closely related economies). Indeed, in June, Italian factories recorded their worst month since the peak of pandemic closures in early 2020

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Niger: the military regime expels ambassadors from the USA, Germany, France, and Nigeria. The military regime in Niger, which seized power on July 26, has ordered the ambassadors of France, Germany, Nigeria, and the United States to leave the country within 48 hours. The move comes after the French ambassador to Niamey, Sylvain Itte, refused an invitation for a meeting from Niger's Foreign Ministry. The ministry stated that actions by the French government were "contrary to the interests of Niger." Meanwhile, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, now in power, has authorized military intervention from Burkina Faso and Mali in case of aggression. These developments come after the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) announced plans for military intervention in Niger following the coup against President Mohamed Bazoum. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has supported a diplomatic solution and discussed the situation with his Algerian counterpart, Ahmed Attaf.

Madagascar: 12 killed in stampede during Indian Ocean Island Games. A tragic stampede occurred at Madagascar's Mahamasina Stadium during the opening ceremony of the Indian Ocean Island Games, resulting in at least 12 deaths and around 85 injuries, according to the country's Prime Minister Christian Ntsay. Eleven of the injured are in critical condition. Videos on social media showed Red Cross workers attending to the injured. The cause of the stampede at the 41,000-capacity stadium remains unclear. President Andry Rajoelina addressed the incident, observing a moment of silence before continuing the ceremony with a laser show and fireworks. This is not the first such incident at the stadium; in 2019, a similar stampede during a music concert killed 15 people, and in 2018, one person died and at least 37 were injured ahead of a football match.

Kenya: emergency polio vaccination program will target 7.4 million children. Kenya is set to launch an emergency polio vaccination program targeting approximately 7.4 million children under the age of five in 10 out of the country's 47 counties deemed "high-risk" by the Ministry of Health. The initiative comes after the World Health Organization (WHO) warned last July that Kenya faces a high risk of a specific form of poliovirus affecting under-immunized communities, particularly in overcrowded refugee camps with poor sanitation, high malnutrition rates, and frequent population movements with Somalia. Patrick Amoth, the Director-General of Health, stated that of the 33 countries currently affected by the polio epidemic, 22 are in African regions monitored by the WHO. He added that the Horn and East Africa experienced devastating droughts in the latter half of last year, making it unsurprising that an epidemic is being recorded just a year later.

Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

US, consumption holds up. The U.S. economy also continues its strong run, and it does so thanks to excellent results from consumer spending, increasingly the dominant sector since it now accounts for 68 percent of GDP. Retail sales rose 0.7 % in July, sharply up from +0.3% in June and +0.4% forecast, although the figure is not adjusted for inflation. However, these results are enough to raise the instantaneous third-quarter GDP growth figure, as measured by the Atlanta Federal Reserve through the GDPNow tracker, from 4.1 percent to 5 percent, which, if confirmed at the end of the quarter would represent the best figure since 2014, excluding the post-covid rebound.

(Leonardo Aldeghi)

Trump gives the US the first mugshot of a former president. Arrested for 20 minutes and released on bail, it happens to former Republican President Donald Trump who turned himself in to authorities in Atlanta, Georgia. The indictment is that he attempted to overturn the election results in the 2020 White House race. The next hearing is scheduled for the end of October.

(Ludovica Costantini)

Leonardo Aldeghi e Ludovica Costantini

LATIN AMERICA

Ecuador goes to the second round of elections in the autumn. On 20 August, presidential and legislative elections were held to renew the country's parliament. For the time being, there is still no winner: Luisa González, candidate of the left-wing party “Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana”, obtained around 33% of the vote, outperforming the challenger of the centrist party 'Alleanza Acción Democrática Nacional', Daniel Noboa, by 9 percentage points - a result, however, not sufficient to govern; in fact, electoral law stipulates that to triumph in the first round, one must either win 50% of the vote or at least 40% and a lead of at least 10 points. All postponed to 15 October, then. González, who is the favourite over her rival, could be the first woman to hold the office of president in Ecuador. Tough proposals, such as the fight against drug trafficking and corruption, appear in her programme.

(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)

Ecuador, historic result of the referendum for the Amazon. On 20 August in Ecuador, citizens were called to a referendum consultation, where the question concerned the blocking of fossil extraction activities in the areas of the Yasuni National Park, a region that occupies about 980,000 hectares in the country. With about 59% the stop to oil drilling won, with the relief of the indigenous indigenous populations. "We have saved their territory, their lives, food sovereignty and medicines in the sacred forest of Yasuni" commented Leonidas Iza, president of CONAIE (National Indigenous Organization).

(Ludovica Costantini)

Argentina to join the BRICS from January 2024. At the 15th emerging countries summit, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa expressed their willingness to welcome six more countries into the group, namely Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The decision to expand participation to other members was promoted by China in an anti-G7 key and paves the way for more multipolar global arrangements. For Buenos Aires, this inclusion - which has been sought on several occasions since 2014 - is an opportunity to attract foreign funding and initiate fruitful relations outside the region. President Fernandez is confident of the benefits of BRICS participation: «Being part of the BRICS means being part of a bloc that currently accounts for 24% of world GDP, 16% of exports and 15% of world imports of goods and services».

(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)

Guatemala, leftist leader Arévalo surprisingly wins presidential elections. Bernardo Arévalo, 64, unexpectedly becomes the new President of Guatemala, beating his rival Torres with 59% of the preferences. The President-elect is part of the Semilla movement, a left-wing movement that was built from below, born from the street protests of 2015, and which has made anti-corruption a principle. In the press conference only the publication of the electoral results ensured "We will work for the well-being of the whole country, and the rights of citizenship will be guaranteed to my opponents".

(Ludovica Costantini)

Alessandro Dowlatshahi and Ludovica Costantini

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Thailand, the new Prime Minister appointed. On Tuesday 22 August, the Thai parliament voted for the real estate tycoon Sretha Thavisin, putting an end to the period of impasse in which national politics had been pouring for the past three months. The candidate proposed by the Pheu Thai party managed to get the support of the senators of the military junta and to obtain 482 votes, exceeding the threshold of 375 votes needed to become the new prime minister and consequently form the governor. Now the task of leading the economic recovery of the country for which it is GDP growth of 3.6% is expected in 2023. The Move Forward party, historic winner of May's elections, is now in opposition, after a failed attempt to gain the necessary support to form the government.

Japan, Fukushima sewage released into the Pacific Ocean. On Thursday, August 24, Japan began releasing radioactive water treated by the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean. Surrounding the plant are more than 1,000 tanks containing over one million tons of treated water, used to cool destructive reactors after the 2011 tsunami. Its removal is a key part of the decommissioning of the still dangerous facility, and could take up to 40 years. Despite the green light from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the move has caused concern among citizens of the populations of the area. In South Korea, the news has given rise to numerous demonstrations which have so far seen the arrest of 14 people protesting in front of the Japanese embassy in Seoul. Beijing also announced an immediate and blanket ban on all seafood products from Japan.

Alessandra Tamponi

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Spain, the king asked Feijóo to form a government. King Felipe VI of Spain has entrusted Popular Party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo with the task of forming a new government; the Popular Party was the political group that won a relative majority in the 23 June elections. In spite of this, it will be difficult for Feijóo to form a government: his hypothetical coalition, which includes the far-right Vox party and two regional parties, has only 172 votes in parliament, compared to the 176 needed. Should Feijóo fail to form the new government, the task would fall to outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. Feijóo will start negotiations on 28 August.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, carbon market regulation adopted. In early August, the European Commission adopted the rules governing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) during its transitional phase, i.e. from 1 October 2023 until December 2025. The regulation approved by the Commission contains the transitional reporting requirements for European importers of cement, iron, steel, aluminium, hydrogen, electricity, fertilisers, and how to calculate emissions released during the production of these goods (CBAM goods). The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is an EU instrument to combat carbon leakage that occurs when EU-based companies move the production of CBAM goods abroad.

(Bianca Franzini)

Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands Supporting Ukraine. Norway has joined forces with Denmark and the Netherlands, becoming part of the coalition that will provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to bolster its defenses against the Russian incursion. The collective supply of US-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway is further enhanced by the proposal from Greece and the United States to provide training for Ukrainian pilots to operate these aircraft. Meanwhile, the ministers of the European Union are examining the possibility of increasing resources up to 20 billion by 2027 to support Ukraine's defense, within the framework of the European Peace Facility.

(Sofia Ena)

EU, Wopke Hoekstra nominated as new European Commissioner. The Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, has put forward Wopke Hoekstra, the current Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, as the successor to Frans Timmermans in the role of European Commissioner for Climate. Timmermans, recently decided to resign from his position as a Commission member to run for the upcoming political elections in the Netherlands. The choice was confirmed today by the spokesperson of the European Commission, Dana Spinant. The meeting between Hoekstra and the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is scheduled for August 29th. Meanwhile, Von der Leyen has decided to entrust the oversight of the European Green Deal to Vice President Maroš Šefčovič.

(Sofia Ena)

EU, new regulations for tech giants: The European Union has introduced the first phase of the new Digital Services Act (DSA) digital rules, which will affect major Big Tech companies operating in Europe. The DSA aims to improve users' online safety and limit the spread of harmful content that is illegal or violates the platforms' terms of service, such as content that promotes hate or anorexia. The platforms involved include Facebook, TikTok, YouTube, Amazon and others. These companies are making changes to allow European users to report illegal or problematic content. The DSA provides for fines of up to 6 per cent of companies' global revenue and could have a global impact as technology companies are making changes around the world to comply with the new European rules.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Bianca Franzini, Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

EU urges Russia to resume Turkey-led wheat initiative: European Commission executive vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis has called on Russia to renew an agreement that would allow the safe export of Ukrainian wheat through Black Sea ports, after Russia abandoned the deal last month. Dombrovskis stated that Russian restrictions on Ukrainian wheat are causing problems not only for Ukraine but also for many developing countries, claiming that Russia is using wheat as a 'weapon'. The EU praised the Black Sea wheat initiative, which is providing alternative trade routes to Ukraine via Turkey. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also tried to convince Russia to return to the agreement, emphasising the importance of the food supply chain. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia will only return to the agreement if the West fulfils its obligations to Moscow. So far, some 45 million tonnes of grain and related products have been exported via alternative routes, providing important support to Ukraine.

Russia, Wagner group leader Prifozhin killed in plane crash: Wednesday, 23 August A plane carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary group Wagner, crashed in the Tver region of Russia, killing all 10 people on board, including Prigozhin. This news was confirmed by a Telegram channel affiliated with Wagner. The perception of the mutiny and the fall of Prigozhin could lead to greater Kremlin control over the group. Russia may also seek to integrate Wagner's mercenaries into the regular Russian military structure. While, the head of the Belarusian opposition, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, reacted to the news by pointing out that Prigozhin was considered a criminal and a murderer. this suggested that his death could lead to a reduction of the Wagner group's presence in Belarus, considering it a potential benefit to the nation and neighbouring countries. Furthermore, an aide to the Ukrainian presidency interpreted the incident as a signal sent by Russian President Putin to Russian elites ahead of the 2024 elections.

Francesca Pasqualino

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

BRICS summit, what consequences for the MENA region? Between 22 and 24 August, the 15th BRICS summit was held in Johannesburg, South Africa, a group formed by the five powers of the so-called "Global South" Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the entry of another 6 full members from 1 January 2024. Among these, four key players in the MENA area stand out: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Iran. Important from a geo-strategic and economic point of view, their entry into the BRICS "represents a new chapter in the collaboration of emerging and developing countries" as declared by Chinese President Xi Jinping during the conference. Middle Eastern players are interested for different reasons: Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are trying to free themselves from the West and open up to other players for economic and security gain (see the recent openings to China); Iran strong in anti-Western and anti-US rhetoric seeks a shot in the arm from international sanctions; Egypt is also looking for new partners, being already a member of the New Development Bank - like the Emirates already - going from China to India. In conclusion, the MENA area and its main players are now contributing to the establishment of an increasingly multipolar world order. The BRICS summit, however symbolic and of mere political value, lays the foundations for a change in the international system.

(Sara Oldani)

Syria, protests against the regime continue. For about a week, protests have broken out in numerous provinces across the country to clamor for the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. In fact, the President and his entourage are accused of the harsh economic conditions in which the Middle Eastern country finds itself, of the failure to recover the areas placed under government control and of the increase in the prices of basic necessities. The particularity of the protests, compared to those that occurred after 2011, lies in the fact that they also took place in areas where loyalty to the Assad family is well present: the first protests of Sweida and Deraa, in southern Syria, were the catalyst for protests in Aleppo and Idlib in the northwest and Deir Az Zor, Raqqa and Hassakeh in the northeast. Sweida, in particular, sees a strong Druze presence within his community. The Druze, an ethnic and religious group spread throughout the Levant, have always been well integrated within the country of residence despite being a minority; the presence of Druze flags during the protests shows how this group could join those of the opposition now confined to the north-west of the country. It is therefore necessary to monitor how discontent and dissent will develop within the community.

(Sara Oldani)

Libya, between chaos and new perspectives: In mid-August, Tripolese militias clashed again after the leader of the notorious 444 Brigade was arrested at Mitiga airport. The clashes resulted in the death of more than fifty men and more than a hundred wounded. Thanks to the mediation of PM Dabaiba, commander Mohamed Hamza was later released.

The international community welcomed the long-awaited announcement of the reunification of Libya's central bank under one authority. In the meantime, the Russian Deputy Defence Minister visited Cyrenaica and met with the leader of the army of eastern Libya, Khalifa Haftar. The meetings between the Russian politician and Cyrenaica's military leadership took place just hours before the shooting down of the private military leader Wagner's plane. Haftar's army then started an offensive in the south of the country against foreign militias there.

(Michele Magistretti)

Tunisia, the "bread crisis" gets worse. For months now, Tunisian citizens have had to endure long queues at the bakery to buy their daily baguette, subsidized by the state at the paltry price of 190 cents of dinar (equal to 0.06 euros), a figure unchanged since 1984. Local production is in fact insufficient and the soaring world prices of wheat make it increasingly difficult to import flour, especially considering the shortage of hard currency in the coffers of the Bank of Tunisia. The crisis has also given rise to speculation, above all on the quotas destined for "semi-state" bakeries obliged to sell at controlled prices. The Tunisian President Kais Saied has harshly accused the speculators, and the arrest of a leading exponent of the trade federation is news these days, as well as the dismissal of the Director of the Cereals Office of the Ministry of Agriculture.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Sara Oldani and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

US, green light to send new military aid to Taiwan. The US State Department has approved the sale of an infrared search and track (IRST) system to Taiwan, to be mounted on F-16 jets, the latter of which are already being supplied to Taipei's air force. This move, in contrast to the Biden administration's cautious attitude towards Taiwan, marks a change in the US approach to the supply of military equipment. The $500 million IRST will allow Taipei to search, detect, and track the movements of external targets through infrared, without exposing its defences to the risk of detection by traditional Chinese radar detection systems.

North Korea, new failure in second launch test of military reconnaissance satellite. The satellite, called Malligyong-1 and mounted on a rocket, was launched at dawn on Thursday from the Tongchang-ri space station near the border with China. According to the North Korean Korean Central News Agency, the failure was due to a malfunction in the rocket's 'emergency explosion system'. The in-flight explosion of the satellite and the resulting fall of fragments off the Japanese coast triggered evacuation alerts on the island of Okinawa.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Mali, does the Tuareg revolt resume? On 13 August, the Blue Helmets of the MINUSMA peacekeeping operation abandoned their positions in the Ber area, not far from Tombouctou, prematurely (the withdrawal was scheduled for October), motivating the choice for security reasons. The Malian special forces claim to have taken the place of the UN troops, but not before having fought a real battle against unspecified hostile forces. For some weeks the area around Ber has been the subject of clashes between the Wagner paramilitary forces and the forces of the Coordination of the Movement for Azawad (CMA), the political-military arm of the Tuareg tribes. The insurrection of the nomadic tribes lasted from 2012 to 2015, when with the so-called Algiers agreement, signed by the CMA and the central government of Bamako, the Tuaregs decided to end the armed struggle in exchange for the promise of greater autonomy.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Davide Shahhosseini e Francesco Lorenzini 

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Rocco Salvadori: Asia and the Far East

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa