HUMAN RIGHTS
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
HUMAN RIGHTS
UK, Supreme Court rules against deporting migrants to Rwanda. The Supreme Court of London has deemed the UK government's plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda illegal. The agreement was labeled as "profoundly ill-conceived and cruel" by Sasha Deshmukh, director of Amnesty International UK. The verdict underscores the urgency of abandoning asylum rejection policies and revisiting the Illegal Immigration Act
Sofia Ena
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND FINANCE
Oil, still sinking. Oil prices suffered their fourth weekly loss after officially plunging into a "bear market," a problematic development for OPEC+ countries and their leaders, who will meet to review production targets later this month. WTI has lost almost 5 % in the past week alone, and the price is down more than 20 % from its September highs (WTI at $75, Brent at $80), seemingly oblivious to the Israel-Hamas war and the wider tensions in the Middle East. The main reason for this decline is to be found in the unexpected increase in the supply of crude oil, primarily American and Russian crude and from next month also from Guyana and North Sea fields. Analysts therefore expect that at the next OPEC+ meeting on November 26, oil production cuts will at least be extended, if not boosted, with the goal of keeping Brent prices between $80 and $100 a barrel.
Inflation, is victory close? The inflation rate in October fell more than expected to 3.2 %, the first drop in four months, pushing U.S. bond yields down sharply and Wall Street stocks up nearly 3% in the last week. Tuesday's consumer price figure represents a sharp drop from September's 3.7% and just below estimates (+3.3%). Core inflation - which excludes volatile food and energy prices - was also slightly weaker than expected, falling from 4.1% to 4% year-on-year (+0.2% month-on-month). If markets are celebrating, Fed Chairman Jay Powell had reminded just the previous week that the Fed will not be "misled by a few good months of data" and that the central bank could tighten monetary policy further if necessary.
EU-UK, positive signs. Eurozone inflation fell more than economists expected thanks to a 2.9 % annual rise in consumer prices in October, the slowest increase since July 2021. The deceleration from September's 4.3% reflects lower energy and food prices, according to Eurostat data. Conversely, economists polled by Reuters had expected a 3.1% increase. Core inflation also fell more than expected to 4.2%, from the previous month's 4.5%. In addition, prices in the UK rose at the slowest pace in two years. In October, prices rose 4.6 % year-on-year, slowing from 6.7% in September. The drop in energy prices is not the only catalyst: both core and services inflation came in below expectations. The figure will allow the British government to claim that it has finally fulfilled its promise made in January to halve inflation by the end of the year.
Leonardo Aldeghi
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Zimbabwe, state of emergency declared over cholera in the capital Harare. On the 17th of November, Zimbabwe declared a state of emergency in the capital, Harare, over a cholera outbreak. This acute diarrhoea infection is contracted from a bacterium which is generally transmitted through contaminated food or water. The country has recorded more than 7,000 suspected cases and almost 150 deaths, 51 of which have been confirmed by laboratory tests, since the outbreak started in February. The health ministry and aid groups have joined forces to double the supply of water in affected areas and carry out awareness campaigns.
(Aurelia Puliafito)
Somalia, the worst flood in a century destroys the country. At least 32 people have been killed and UN warns that more the 1.6 million people could be affected in the devastating floods which follow years of drought. In Galkayo, gushing waters have submerged a cemetery, leaving bodies floating. In the southern Gedo region, the river Juba has burst its banks and destroyed a key bridge in the city of Bardere, making it impossible to reach by land one part of the city. Mohamed Abdirahin, a prosperous merchant and farmer until last week, has declared that almost all of the city’s residents have been forced to move. Somalia's already fragile government has been trying to provide emergency relief, but it says it cannot cover all the affected areas, also because some of them are controlled by the al-Qaeda-linked group al-Shabab.
(Aurelia Puliafito)
Mali: army recaptures key town of Kidal amid escalating northern conflict. This marks a significant victory for the military junta that took power in 2020 as Kidal was a key area controlled by Tuareg-dominated separatist groups. Violence in northern Mali has intensified since August, with various factions, including the military, rebels, and jihadists, competing for control. This escalation coincides with the withdrawal of the UN stabilisation mission, MINUSMA, from Mali. The head of the junta, Colonel Assimi Goita, announced the seizure of Kidal on state television. The separatist groups acknowledged their loss but vowed to continue fighting. Kidal has been a center for independence insurgencies and was previously under the control of Tuareg armed groups, with the Malian state having little presence there.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Liberia: George Weah recognizes defeat in the election, Boakai wins. In the presidential elections in Liberia, the incumbent president George Weah has acknowledged his defeat against his challenger Joseph Boakai, who is center-right. Boakai obtained 50.9% of the votes in the runoff, with 99.6% of the ballots counted. Weah, a former successful football player and president since 2017, has accepted the result, calling for a peaceful transition. Approximately 1.6 million people voted, with a turnout of 65.7%. Boakai, 78 years old, from the Unity Party, capitalized on popular dissatisfaction with the economy and corruption under Weah. During his term, Weah improved access to education and maintained peace, but failed to solve economic and corruption issues. This election marks the fourth since the end of the last civil war in Liberia and the first without the presence of a UN mission, which ended in 2018.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Aurelia Puliafito and Giulio Ciofini
NORTH AMERICA
United States of America, Biden defends Israel. Joe Biden, interviewed by journalists regarding his refusal to support a ceasefire in Gaza, defended his decision by citing the change in Israel's actions, transitioning from carpet bombings to targeted military operations. He emphasized the increasing focus on protecting and evacuating civilians in hospitals. The American president also accused Hamas of planning a new attack on Israel involving "beheading babies, burning women and children alive", though the White House promptly clarified that these were unofficial sourced information. Lastly, causing evident discomfort to secretary of State Antony Blinken, he hinted at the possibility of an imminent agreement between the two parties concerning the release of hostages in exchange for a "pause".
Lorenzo Graziani
LATIN AMERICA
Brazil, deforestation reaches lowest level in five years. According to a survey by the Brazilian Institute for Space Research (Inpe) dated 9 November, there was a 22.3% decrease in tree felling in Brazil from August 2022 to July 2023 compared to the previous year. According to experts in the sector, the intensification of environmental control and protection measures by the Lula government is behind this reversal; the executive's goal is to completely eliminate deforestation by 2030. The consequences of this new policy are obvious: it is estimated that, in recent months, the slowdown in deforestation has reduced Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions by 7.5%.
(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)
Colombia, the National Liberation Army frees the father of footballer Luis Díaz. On Thursday 9th November, Luis Manuel Díaz was returned to his family in good health. The man had been kidnapped on 28th October in Barrancas by members of the National Liberation Army, a guerrilla group openly antagonistic to the government of Gustavo Petro. The capture of the 58-year-old father of the Liverpool star had gone viral on the media, not least because of the player's choice to show a shirt with the words 'Libertad para papa' on the occasion of the goal scored in the match against Luton on 5 November. The episode is part of a context of attempted reconciliation, which has been going on since this summer, between the State and the paramilitary group, guilty of committing kidnappings and holding hostages in recent months.
(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)
Haiti, new U.N. international mission to address the country's crisis. The state of Haiti has been in a difficult condition for years, linked to extreme weather events, crime, and socio-economic problems. In fact, it is since the assassination of President Moïse in 2021 that the control of the country has passed into the hands of the violence and criminality of the 95 existing gangs. Last October, the emergency scenario brought the UN Security Council together to try to intervene in this humanitarian crisis that requires commitment and assistance. Ending the negotiations was Kenya's proposition to lead the mission, despite skepticism toward a country whose reputation is not the best, given its over-deployment of police forces. What is hoped is that the mission can be effective and that Haitian civil society will not hinder the arrival of foreign aid, but rather, allow a collaboration marked by trust and recovery.
(Serena Basso)
Paraguay, resumption of diplomatic relations with Venezuela. It is through a statement on Wednesday 15th November the social media platform X that Paraguay and Venezuela announce the resumption of diplomatic relations interrupted since January 2019. In fact, the President of the Republic of Paraguay Santiago Peña and the President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro have agreed on the intention to re-establish relations on some fundamental points. Among these, the two countries pledge to foster good coexistence, respect the principle of non-interference in the affairs of other States, and will also seek to preserve solidarity. Although President Peña confirms that he does not fully recognize the principles and values of the Venezuelan government, the two States will commit to fostering mutual respect, upholding the values and principles of Latin American integration and unity.
(Serena Basso)
Alessandro Dowlatshahi and Serena Basso
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
Cina, the meeting between Xi and Biden. Joe Biden and Xi Jinping met just outside San Francisco on Wednesday, November 15, to discuss key issues affecting the two superpowers. As in the past, the most sensitive topic was Taiwan, for which Biden reaffirmed the "One China" policy, while Xi urged the blocking of the island's armament policy. The President of the United States then requested Beijing to use its strong influence to ease global tensions in Ukraine and Gaza. Economic matters were also discussed: Xi asked for the lifting of sanctions on Chinese exports and Biden secured a gradual reduction in the trade of fentanyl-based products, which have been a major cause of serious addiction problems in America for years.
(Lorenzo Graziani)
Japan-Germany, the overtake. Germany is expected to unseat Japan as the world's third-largest economy in 2023, thanks to the yen's decline against the dollar and euro. The most recent projections by the International Monetary Fund puts Germany's nominal gross domestic product at $4.43 trillion this year, against Japan's $4.23 trillion. The yen's weakness has largely been driven by the underlying differences in monetary policy. While the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have raised interest rates from pandemic lows to counter inflation, the Bank of Japan has remained in stimulus mode to fuel price growth after years of deflation. IMF data also show that Germans are arguably feeling much better off than the Japanese. Average gross domestic product per capita in Germany is forecast at $52,824, compared with the $33,950 of Japan.
(Leonardo Adelghi)
WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
Portugal, Resignation of Costa After Judicial Error. The Portuguese Prime Minister, Antonio Costa, resigned on November 7th following his involvement in a Supreme Court investigation for corruption. Simultaneously, the Minister of Infrastructure, Joao Galamba, faces accusations from the General Prosecutor's office, including charges of active and passive corruption, influence peddling, and abuse of office. Arrest warrants have been issued for Costa's Chief of Staff, Vítor Escária, and one of his advisors, Diogo Lacerda, in connection to this case. Investigations have focused on investments related to the exploitation of green hydrogen and the lithium mine in Montalegre. However, the prosecutor's office refuted the alleged involvement of the Prime Minister on November 12th, admitting an error in the transcription of an interception: the name of the Prime Minister was confused with that of the Minister of Economy, António Costa Silva. In the meantime, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa had already decided to call for early elections on March 10th.
(Sofia Ena)
UK, Sunak Removes Braverman. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak replaced the Home Secretary Suella Braverman on November 13, following controversies sparked by Braverman's criticisms of the police and her far-right political positions. Braverman came under scrutiny last week for an unauthorized article in The Times, where she criticized the London police for allowing a demonstration in support of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Her removal may lead to tensions within the Conservative Party, with some MPs threatening resignations. Her role will be taken over by Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, as announced by Downing Street. Sunak's move is perceived as an attempt to strengthen the government's position ahead of the upcoming legislative elections.
(Sofia Ena)
Spain, Pedro Sánchez elected premier for the third time. The Spanish parliament has granted confidence to socialist leader Pedro Sánchez who, for the third time, is elected president of the government, with 179 votes in favour and 171 against. The vote came after days of intense debates (and demonstrations outside Congress) on the agreement to grant amnesty to Catalan separatists. Demonstrators also gathered in front of the national headquarters of the Socialist Party to protest against the amnesty; representatives of the Vox party, including leader Santiago Abascal, also joined the protests.
(Bianca Franzini)
EU, the Commission proposes a new sanctions package against Russia. In recent days, the European Commission has presented a proposal for the twelfth package of sanctions against Russia for the aggression in Ukraine. At the forefront of the proposals, which are to be approved by EU leaders at the upcoming summit in December, are moves to limit Russia's trade revenues. These include a total ban on the sale within the bloc of Russian rough diamonds and jewellery using gems from the country's Siberian mines. In addition, there is talk of moves to tighten the oil price ceiling and sanctions on a hundred individuals and entities, including Russian military and defence actors.
(Bianca Franzini)
EU, European Commission accused of violating EU privacy law: The European Commission is under indictment for an advertising campaign aimed at raising awareness about the proposed law against child sexual abuse. The European Centre for Digital Rights has filed a complaint for allegedly violating the GDPR, alleging that the European executive used microtargeting based on political views and religious orientations. It allegedly violated Platform X's policies by targeting 'sensitive' categories such as religion and politics. The campaign also allegedly used misleading statistics. The bill in question, which is currently under consideration, causes divisions between privacy advocates and child rights defenders, with the use of technology to counter child abuse, raising fears of mass surveillance. The Commission is accused of violating privacy, and the European Data Protection Supervisor is called upon to intervene, if necessary with sanctions.
(Francesca Pasqualino)
Bianca Franzini, Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
Poland, Tusk-led coalition elects Speaker of the Sejm, the lower house of the Polish Parliament. The new pro-European majority led by former European Council President Donald Tusk passes its first test since winning the October 15 elections. In fact, the Polish Parliament's lower house elected on Monday, November 13, its new Speaker, the leader of the Poland 2050 party, Szymon Holownia, who has a Christian Democratic orientation. Holownia was elected with 265 votes against the 193 obtained by PiS candidate Elzbieta Witek. During his first speech as president of the Sejm, the newly elected Holownia expressed his desire for the united oppositions to work to overcome party divisions to form a new government capable of reviving Polish democracy. The grand coalition that won the Polish elections is composed of Tusk's party, EPP-affiliated Civic Platform, Third Way, which brings together Christian Democratic and liberal inspired parties, and Lewica's Social Democrats. Only three days earlier, on Nov. 10, the opposition in fact signed a coalition agreement and declared itself ready to govern to bring the pro-European wind back to Poland after eight years of conservative PiS rule.
(Alessandro Alloro)
Hungary, new challenge to EU: Orbán against new sanctions on Russia and obstructs Ukraine's accession. Hungary's recent decisions to obstruct the approval of the 12th sanctions package against Russia and to oppose Ukraine's accession to the Union are a direct consequence of the country's increasingly pro-Russian policy. Indeed, it is worth recalling how only last month the Hungarian PM met in Beijing at the New Silk Road Forum with President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation, during which the two leaders affirmed their intention to maintain strong relations. Not surprisingly, therefore, Hungary's Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó criticised the EU's proposal for a new package of sanctions, stating how they were only capable of harming the European economy while at the same time not affecting the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in a major way. Regarding Ukraine's membership in the EU, Hungary has explicitly stated that it will veto accession talks.
(Alessandro Alloro)
Russia, EU accused of actions to expel Russia from Central Asia: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the EU of trying to expel Russia from Central Asia, claiming that such efforts are futile. Lavrov stated that the EU does not hide its intention to obstruct Russia in the region. Russian influence in Central Asia has diminished since the offensive in Ukraine, with several nations, including Europe, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and China, competing for control of the region. Lavrov rejected such attempts, saying that Russia has a historical presence in the area. The statements follow French President Macron's visit to Kazakhstan, where he praised the country for not submitting to outside influences, implicitly criticising Russia. The Kremlin spokesman argued that Western countries are trying to oust Russia from the region, while the former Soviet republics in Central Asia seek to diversify their international partnerships.
(Francesca Pasqualino)
Moldova, election results show strong internal divisions: The local elections in Moldova on 5 November showed an increasingly fragmented country, with a turnout of 41%, down from 2019. Outgoing mayor Ion Ceban was reconfirmed in Chişinău with 50.6%, overtaking PAS's Lilian Carp. In Balti, a runoff will be held between Alexandr Petkov and Arina Corsicova. Although PAS achieved successes in municipal councils in the Centre-South, it failed to elect mayors in large cities. In the North, the dominance of the Socialist Party reflects Russian influence. Although the government has tried to limit Russian interference, the country remains divided between pro-European and pro-Russian positions, highlighting persistent internal tensions. Ceban's victory in Chişinău with his new party, MAN, suggests the presence of grey areas that do not fully identify with either of the two main political factions.
(Francesca Pasqualino)
Francesca Pasqualino and Alessandro Alloro
MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Israel-Hamas conflict: Military operations continue in the northern part of the Gaza Strip. About thirty thousand Israeli Defence Forces units are engaged in the operations, facing a similar number of militiamen from different terrorist groups. The operations have focused on the al Shifa hospital, where one of Hamas' operational centres is said to be located. Nevertheless, the Israeli armed forces have not shown convincing evidence to support this thesis. Moreover, attacks continue on the northern front by Hezbollah and on the southern front by the Yemeni Houthis. The situation is also worsening in the West Bank, where the harassment, occupation and discrimination by settlers against Palestinians continue. Some information is beginning to leak out about the possibility of an exchange of prisoners in exchange for a temporary ceasefire, but the success of the negotiations is not certain.
Michele Magistretti
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Russia, the Russian government against the 'public international LGBT movement'. The Russian Ministry of Justice has filed a case with the Supreme Court to declare the 'international public LGBT movement' 'extremist'. The court will hear the case on 30 November. The decision was made following the identification of 'signs and manifestations of an extremist nature' in the activities of the LGBTQ+ movement in Russia, including alleged instances of inciting social and religious discord. In the past, the Russian government has used the label 'extremist' to prosecute human rights organisations, independent media and political opponents.
Finland, government opts for border closure with Russia. The Finnish government announced the closure of four border crossings with Russia, including Vaalimaa, Nuijamaa, Imatra and Niirala, until next February, in order to limit the entry of asylum seekers. The reasons behind Helsinki's decision were the increase in the number of entries of undocumented persons in recent months. According to the accusations made by the Finnish government, Moscow is facilitating the entry of undocumented migrants as a means of retaliation after Helsinki's decision to join NATO.
Davide Shahhosseini
Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.
Alessandro Alloro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Alessandro Dowlatshahi: Latin America
Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East
Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa
Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union
Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security
Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security
Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa
Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance
Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights
Lorenzo Graziani: North America
Ludovica Costantini: Latin America
Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa
Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa
Serena Basso: Latin America
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