Translated by Valeria D’Alessandro
During the past few weeks, the Korean Peninsula has become the stage for rising tensions, captivating the attention of the international community. This region, already known for its complicated history and perpetual state of tension, is now facing a new development that is causing concern globally. In particular, concern is rising after the recent actions of Kim Jong Un, leading the international community to reopen discussions regarding the prospect of a new conflict on the peninsula.
First, the North Korean leader has closed every agency engaged in the unification with South Korea, thus abandoning the project for a peaceful reunification of the last ten years. Subsequently, he designated South Korea as the 'main enemy' of North Korea and symbolically demolished a monument to Korean unification located in the suburbs of Pyongyang. These actions reflect an escalation of tensions between the two Koreas, which have been exacerbated by the recent success of the launch of a North Korean military reconnaissance satellite and further developments in North Korea's nuclear program. According to SIPRI in January 2023, Pyongyang had 30 nuclear warheads at its disposal and enough fissionable material for 50-70 nuclear devices.
The escalation of tensions led to the denunciation by both parties of the "Comprehensive Military Agreement" signed in 2018, which confirmed the complete cessation of all hostile acts in all domains between the parties and established the creation of a direct communication line between the two countries.
Jointly, Kim relaunched the military relationship with Russia by supplying projectiles and short-range missiles, which were later widely used in Ukraine. In exchange, Moscow hypothetically provided technical assistance for the launch of said satellite and shared advanced military technology with Pyongyang, thus interrupting a decade-long military blockade on imports due to the sanction regime to which Moscow was also adhering.
The expansion of the military relationship between North Korea and Russia was accompanied by a constant intensification of high-level diplomatic contacts between Pyongyang and Moscow. The meeting between Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in September 2023 represented another concerning phase in this framework. Drawing closer to the Kremlin ensures protection from further penalties by the United Nations Security Council, particularly in relation to recent long-range missile tests and satellite launches. This represents international legitimation of Kim’s regime operations.
The isolation of Russia, as a consequence of the war in Ukraine, and the competitive dynamics between China and the US have led to the progressive alignment of China, North Korea, and Russia in an anti-Western perspective. The anticipated participation of North Korea in the regular military drills that China and Russia jointly conduct in the Pacific would further enhance coordination and regional integration among the three countries, posing a threat to Japan and South Korea.
However, in the last few years, the waters between China and North Korea have not always been so clear. Despite China being Pyongyang's main commercial partner and despite the existence of a mutual defense treaty, Beijing declared at the UN its support for imposing sanctions on North Korea due to their violation of international law regarding the development of a nuclear program. Moreover, China did not actively support North Korea against the US on that same issue.
Simultaneously, the trilateral relationship between South Korea, Japan, and the US has been reinforced, as demonstrated by the summit held at Camp David last summer. During that occasion, the intention to continue regular consultations was announced, along with the commitment to hold annual trilateral drills 'to share real-time missile alert data on DPRK and pursue enhanced collaboration regarding defense against ballistic missiles to counter the nuclear and missile threat posed by the DPRK,' as affirmed in the statement. Additionally, both Tokyo and Seoul planned further development of their armed forces, as stated in Japan’s new National Security Strategy.
On the other hand, there are a few disputes between Japan and South Korea, stemming from Japan's past domination of the Korean Peninsula, which could undermine mutual trust between the two countries. In particular, the issue of the 'Comfort Women' and the dispute over the right of victims of forced labor to seek reparations from Japan.
As shown by previous events, it seems clear why a new debate has started regarding the possibility of a new conflict on the Korean Peninsula, in light of the recent tensions. This discussion not only involves the North-South relationship but also fits into the competitive logic of the aforementioned 'blocks.' Therefore, it could be useful to focus particularly on the contrasting ideas that animate the discussion.
In a recent article, two American academics, Robert L. Carlin and Siegfried S. Hecker, affirmed: 'We believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made the strategic decision to start a war. We do not know when or how Kim is going to pull the trigger, but the danger far exceeds the routine warnings issued by Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo regarding Pyongyang’s provocations.' According to the authors, it was the lack of normalization of the relationship with the United States after the Hanoi meeting in February 2019, during the Trump presidency, that determined a fundamental change in North Korean politics regarding relations with the USA and consequently with South Korea. This is in addition to the perception of the American 'retreat' after the fall of 2021, and to the development of the North Korean nuclear program, which represents a powerful deterrent against any hostile action towards the Pyongyang regime.
In contrast to this view is Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser at CSIS, who maintains that, in light of what is known about the internal situation in North Korea, Kim's current primary focus is the economy. The author affirms in particular: "Kim has launched a passionate appeal for the maximum efforts of the country and the Party to be directed towards improving the economic conditions throughout the entire country." The news of discharged soldiers being sent to the countryside and the army's contribution to national development reflect the fact that North Korea is not mobilizing for an imminent war. Moreover, according to Seiler, the rhetoric in 2024 is nothing new, despite being very concerning. He also added that "when North Korea decides to engage in lethal provocations, do not anticipate their actions."
In conclusion, while tensions on the Korean Peninsula are escalating, it is fundamental to adopt a cautious approach and consider different perspectives on the possibility of a new conflict. Sydney Seiler’s arguments, which suggest that Kim Jong Un is focusing more on the economy than on an imminent war, provide a less alarming perspective on North Korea's internal situation. However, it is essential to pay attention to further developments, considering the complexity of the region's dynamics. Global instability and the upcoming American elections could further affect the situation, thus making constant monitoring of the relationship between the two Koreas crucial.
References:
- Scott A. Snyder, “Why Is North Korea Turning More Aggressive?”, Council on Foreign Relations, Febbraio 2024, https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/why-north-korea-turning-more-aggressive;
- Scott A. Snyder, “Satellites, Summits, and Succession in North Korea”, Council on Foreign Relations, Gennaio 2024, https://www.cfr.org/blog/satellites-summits-and-succession-north-korea;
- Scott A. Snyder, “The Perils of a Renewed North Korea-Russia Relationship”, Council on Foreign Relations, Settembre 2023, https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/perils-renewed-north-korea-russia-relationship;
- “Agreement on the Implementation of the Historic Panmunjom Declaration in the Military Domain”, https://www.ncnk.org/sites/default/files/Agreement%20on%20the%20Implementation%20of%20the%20Historic%20Panmunjom%20Declaration%20in%20the%20Military%20Domain.pdf;
- Edward Howell, “Kim Jong Un’s hostile rhetoric reflects North Korea’s warming relations with Russia and China”, Chatam House, Gennaio 2024, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/01/kim-jong-uns-hostile-rhetoric-reflects-north-koreas-warming-relations-russia-and-china;
- CNN, “Kim Jong Un has broken with decades of North Korean policy – does it mean he’s planning for war?”, Febbraio 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/16/asia/kim-jong-un-has-broken-with-decades-of-north-korean-policy-does-it-mean-hes-planning-for-war-intl-hnk/index.html;
- Bruce W. Bennett, “North Korea and China Aren't the Allies You Think They Are”, RAND Corporation, Settembre 2023, https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/09/north-korea-and-china-arent-the-allies-you-think-they.html;
- SIPRI Yearbook 2023;
- Casa Bianca, “The Spirit of Camp David: Joint Statement of Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States”, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/08/18/the-spirit-of-camp-david-joint-statement-of-japan-the-republic-of-korea-and-the-united-states/;
- Christopher B. Johnston, “Jeffrey W. Hornung, Separate U.S. Alliances in East Asia Are Obsolete”, Foreign Policy, Settembre 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/11/japan-south-korea-us-alliance-china-security-east-asia-defense-geopolitics-biden-kishida-suk-yeol/;
- Paul Nadeau, “Japan and South Korea’s ‘Historical Dispute’ Is Still Very Much Alive”, World Politics Review, Febbraio 2024, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/japan-south-korea-relations-2/;
- Robert L. Carlin e Siegfried S. Hecker, “Is Kim Jong Un Preparing for War?”, Stimson Center, Gennaio 2024, https://www.38north.org/2024/01/is-kim-jong-un-preparing-for-war/;
- Sydney Seiler, “North Korea: Preparing for War, Mere Blustering, or Something in Between?”, CSIS, Febbaio 2024, https://www.csis.org/analysis/north-korea-preparing-war-mere-blustering-or-something-between
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