Framing The World, CII Edition

Framing The World, CII Edition

In the latest issue of Framing we cover the joint China-Russia naval exercises in South Africa. Again with reference to Chinese power, we describe the trip of the diplomat Wang Yi to Europe. Finally, the latest news about the earthquake between Syria and Turkey.

All this and more in the 102th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Peru, lethal state violence against protesters. On February 16, Amnesty International stated that the Peruvian army and police force had violated human rights in at least 46 cases since unrest broke out on December 7, following the arrest of former president Pedro Castillo. Although international human rights standards prohibit the use of firearms with lethal ammunition to control demonstrations, Amnesty International has already documented 12 deaths due to their use. Since the crisis began, more than 1,200 protesters and 580 police officers have been injured and more than 50 people have died. Amnesty International has presented President Boularte with the initial findings of the investigation conducted between January 29 and February 11, and has also recommended a series of actions that the government must immediately implement, including ending the use of lethal force to disperse protests and providing support to the families of the killed and injured.

Spain, laws on trans rights and abortion passed. On February 16, the Spanish Parliament passed two legislations that, as stated by Uge Sangil, president of the Spanish Lgtbi+ State Federation, make Spain “one of the countries with the most advanced legislation on Lgtbi+”. The so-called 'trans law' allows people to ask for their sex to be changed at the registry office without judicial authorisation nor medical or psychological certificates from 16 years on (from 14 if their parents agree). On the other hand, the law on abortion allows girls from the age of 16 to undergo an abortion without parental nor legal guardian consent and stipulates the state's obligation to ensure the availability of medical personnel for this practice in 'all public hospitals'. The law also provides for leave for 'disabling' menstruation covered by the state, a first in a European country.

Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

Tourism, travel is booming. The strong travel demand is boosting the industry's stocks. Airbnb, after the losses of the pandemic years, closed 2022 with the first profit in its history ($506 million), well above analysts' estimates, and expects the first quarter of 2023 to also close with results beyond forecasts. TripAdvisor, for its part, increased revenues by 47 % and profits by 43% and estimates strong demand throughout the year. Both companies are celebrating on the stock market, with the former up 42% year-to-date and the latter up 37%, results in line with that of the airlines, which are also up sharply (American Airlines +28%, Air France +40%).

Air India, a record order. The strong momentum of the travel industry is also reflected in Air India's decision to order 470 new aircraft, 250 from Airbus and 220 from Boeing, in what, at an estimated value of $85 billion, is the largest and most expensive order in history, beating Emirates' 2013 precedent ($75 billion). These values are based on list prices and are obviously subject to discounts given the quantity of aircraft ordered, but it confirms the Indian market as the fastest-growing in the world (estimated 2210 additional aircraft over the next 20 years), thanks both to its huge domestic market potential and, in contrast to Western airlines, the ability to fly in Russian airspace.

Artificial intelligence, Microsoft vs. Google. The $10 billion investment in OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence bot that has been stunning and stirring up discussion around the world since last fall, allows Microsoft to announce that it will integrate an updated version of the chatbot into its Bing search engine and Edge browser. CEO Satya Nadella has thus laid out the challenge against Google, which has hastily responded to the competition with Bard, an AI tool released as a preview to developers but which immediately backfired. In the promotional video, in fact, Bard reported inaccurate information, which resulted in an 8 % drop in the stock market and $100 billion in lost capitalization.

Gas, sharp drop in prices. For the first time since August 2021, European natural gas futures fell below €50, confirming the downward trend that has sent prices down 80% from their August 2022 highs and down 35%. The energy crisis, which has so far cost Europe about $1 trillion, thus seems to be receding thanks to a combination of cost-saving measures, LNG supplies from the U.S. and Qatar, and a relatively mild winter. However, prices remain double the pre-crisis level, and analysts judge further declines unlikely, given the complete shutdown of Russian supplies, which last year, though at a reduced pace, contributed to the replenishment of gas storage reserves.

Eggs, sky-high prices. The avian flu epidemic shows no sign of abating, with the World Health Organization estimating that 100 million chickens either have died or been culled because of the virus between October and February 3rd, a fourfold increase over last year and warning that the infection appears to have become endemic and no longer limited to the migratory season of the wild species that spread the disease. The virus primarily affects egg-laying hens, and thus it is not surprising that the price of eggs has risen 73% since December 2021 and 8.5% in January alone, helping to keep the food component of the inflation index high and offsetting declines in goods and energy.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

South Africa, joint naval exercise with Russia and China. A joint naval exercise between South Africa, Russia and China has been planned for Friday, 17 February, off the South African coast in the Indian Ocean. The news was released by the Russian news agency Tass, citing South Africa's Ministry of Defence. The maneuvers, dubbed Mosi-2, are expected to last until 27 February. Tass also reports that, according to 'a source close to the Russian military industrial complex' said on 3 February, a test launch of a Tsirkon hypersonic missile could take place during the exercises. The rocket could be launched towards a surface target over 500 kilometers away.

(Andrea Ghilardi)

Malawi, cholera epidemic worsens. The toll of the cholera epidemic that broke out in Malawi in March 2022 continues to worsen. More than 31,000 cases have been reported in the country since the outbreak began, with over 1,000 people having died. Health Minister Khumbize Chiponda told a press conference on Thursday that cholera deaths had multiplied in the last month. "Within four weeks, the numbers have doubled," he said. As of 26 December, the total number of deaths from the bacterial disease was 486, according to Malawi government data. These numbers are the worst recorded in the country since 2002, when there was another major outbreak of cholera. The Malawi Minister of Health also stated that 'certain cultural rituals associated with the death of cholera victims help perpetuate the disease. For example, people who are dying or have died of cholera may be washed by family members who then prepare funeral feasts... cholera epidemics commonly follow these feasts,' the statement read.

(Andrea Ghilardi)

Equatorial Guinea: WHO confirms Marburg virus outbreak. Following the death of nine people in Equatorial Guinea, the WHO decided to convene an emergency meeting of the Marburg Vaccine Consortium in Geneva. The World Health Organization has already dispatched personnel to help the country tackle this critical moment. No vaccine has yet been developed against the Marburg virus, belonging to the same family of Ebola and carried by the bat of African fruit. Currently, 4000 people have been detained by the local authorities and quarantined, 16 suspected. Cameroon also remains on alert, given the reports of possible cases in the areas bordering Equatorial Guinea.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Nigeria: A few days before the elections, Buhari extends the deadline for the old notes. Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari approved the Central Bank’s decision to extend the 60-day deadline for exchanging old notes. This is a highly controversial move as the country is now on the verge of the presidential elections on 25 February. For a year now, the central bank has started to circulate the new Naira series, but the country is experiencing an unprecedented shortage of currency, so the term for changing old notes has been extended again. Several observers and especially opponents to the opposition of the outgoing president have disputed the timing of this maneuver, arguing that it would encourage practices of buying and selling votes and especially because the money invested for the election campaign would be even more challenging to trace.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Andrea Ghilardi and Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs in Ukraine. On February 16th Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly traveled to Ukraine: the Canadian government wanted to reaffirm its support for the people of Ukraine and discuss its role in the after-war. The discussions verged on the best way for Canada to support the Ukrainian resistance against Putin's aggression, and Zelenskyy thanked Canada for the donations of military equipment, such as a Leopard 2 battle tank and a National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System. Minister Joly was also able to discuss with Olena Zelenska, Fist Lady of Ukraine, about how the war impacted on women and children and what they needed to do to respond to cases of conlifct-related sexual violence. To show the Canadian's commitment, Minister Joly announced the allocation of $21.2 million to support organizations that are currently working for the Ukrainian people, reaching the amount of over $5 billion from the start of the war.

Trouble over the American skies. After the balloon shot down on the 4th of February, President Joe Biden ordered another action against a "high altitude object" near Alaska a week later, February 10. According to what National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the same day, the object was "a reasonable threat to the safety of the civilian flight", flying at 40,000 feet. The object was shot down by an F-22 jet, the same type that fired a missile to destroy the Chinese spy balloon. In response, the American government decided on Friday to announce its first official retaliation against Beijing for the spy balloon incident, adding six Chinese aerospace companies to a special commercial blacklist: the Commerce Department announced that American companies are forbidden from doing business with those companies, unless they receive special licenses. In addition to that, on Sunday the U.S. military shot down another unidentified object flying above Michigan and another violating Canadian airspace on Saturday, but American defense officials declined to identify what those objects were.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Nicaragua, citizenship revoked from 94 dissidents. Among all the people who were accused of "betrayal of the homeland" by a court in the Central American country, there are famous Nicaraguan cultural figures: writer Sergio Ramirez, poet Gioconda Belli and Catholic bishop Silvio Báez. Authorities justified the measure by claiming how the accused, through their opposition to President Daniel Ortega, were plotting a coup against the latter. In fact, the revocation of citizenship is only the latest of a series of actions that were taken under the Ortega regime, in its fourth term, and exacerbate the social conflict between what increasingly appears to be a political caste and dissent.

Colombia, reactivated trade agreement dating back to 2011 with Venezuela. The trade treaty had been suspended in 2019 as political tensions between the two countries escalated. Gustavo Petro's victory in last June's presidential election marked a reopening of bilateral relations with Caracas. The resumption of the 2011 agreement was made official during a meeting between the Colombian president himself and Nicolas Maduro, held at the border between Ureña (western Venezuela) and Cucuta (northern Colombia). In the meeting, the two leaders expressed their mutual intention to eliminate all kinds of existing trade barriers.

Davide Shahhosseini

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

China, Wang Yi in Europe. The visit to Europe of Wang Yi, current Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), began on February 14th. The visit has already brought the highest-ranking Chinese diplomat to France and Italy, and will continue with his participation in the Munich Security Conference. Wang's mission will conclude on February 22 with a visit to Russia. The tour is an important opportunity to relax China’s relations with the European Union, which have been tense since 2019. China’s goal is to keep relations open with European countries, following the recent disputes with the USA. At the same time, the mission aims at renewing the relationship of mutual friendship with Russia, despite the international tension due to the invasion of Ukraine. With his visit, the former Foreign Minister will become the highest official of the People's Republic of China to be hosted in Europe after the 20th National Party Congress.

Japan, Philippines sign disaster relief deal. On February 9, during an official visit of Philippines President Marcos Jr. to Japan, the two countries signed a disaster relief agreement, which is part of a package that includes seven other deals. According to the signed agreement, Japanese troops will be allowed to participate in drills and natural disasters and humanitarian response training in the Philippines. The deal could become a first step to broader military cooperation between the countries as it expands the regulatory regime that allows Japanese forces to be deployed in the Philippines. Marcos's visit came just days after he also reached an agreement to allow the United States greater access to military bases in the country.

Alessandra Tamponi

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Spain, paid menstrual leave, abortion reform and 'trans law' approved. On February 16, the Spanish Parliament approved the reform on sexual and reproductive health and voluntary termination of pregnancy and the provision for 'real and effective equality for trans people'. The 'abortion law' guarantees free and safe abortion in public facilities from the age of 16 (without the need for parental or legal guardian consent), while the 'sexual and reproductive health law' introduces paid menstrual leave for the first time in Europe. The 'trans law', on the other hand, establishes the possibility, from the age of 16, to request a sex change at the registry office without health or medical authorisation; the new law also prohibits conversion therapies and provides measures against homophobia in the areas of education, health and employment. The Minister of Equal Opportunities, Irene Montero, called February 16 'a historic day' for the rights of women and LGBT+ people.

(Bianca Franzini)

European Council, adopted conclusions on immigration. On February 9, the European Council, the institution that defines the Union's priorities and general political guidelines, met in Brussels. The Council approved conclusions concerning Ukraine, the earthquake in Syria and Turkey, the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, economy and migration. On the latter issue, European leaders called for a comprehensive approach to migration that follows the Union's principles and focuses on external border controls, enhanced external action and reception capacities. The Union’s objective is to strengthen actions in order to reduce pressure on its borders and to prevent irregular departures by shifting responsibility on countries of origin and accelerating the return of asylum seekers who do not qualify for international protection. During the summit, the Council reiterated the importance of cooperation during rescue operations in the central Mediterranean and on return and reintegration.

(Bianca Franzini)

Strasbourg, European Parliament suspended by Kurdish protest. On February 15, the plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, which was hosting a debate on the environment and industry, was interrupted by a group of around 15-20 Kurdish independence activists, leading to the evacuation of legislators. The protest is linked to the 24th anniversary since the arrest of Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan that was celebrated on February 15. In 1999 Ocalan founded the PKK, a militant group that fought Turkey to obtain the independent state of Kurdistan and recognized by the EU as a terrorist organization. The activists loudly demanded the release of their leader imprisoned in Turkey with various threats, denouncing the continuous torture against him by Turkish guards and describing the conditions of Ocalan's isolation as "unique in the world". The president of the European Parliament, Roberta Metzola, worried about the damage that the activists could have caused and negotiated with them. President Metzola criticized the ways of the protest for interrupting EU’s main democratic activities.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Bianca Franzini and Francesca Pasqualino

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Moldova, President Sandu fears a Russian-backed coup. On Monday, the government in Chisinau brought to public attention an alleged plan by Moscow aimed at toppling the current Moldovan executive. According to Moldovan President Maia Sandu, foreign paramilitary formations, in the pay of the Russian Federation, are reportedly ready to attack Moldovan democracy by resorting to violent sabotage and hostage-taking actions among top institutional officials. In response to what was seen as an imminent threat to national security last week, Moldovan authorities on Tuesday closed airspace for about three hours; while last Thursday's Europa League soccer match between Sheriff Tiraspol and Partizan Belgrade was played behind closed doors after security services raised the alarm about the presence of Serbian military infiltrators among Partizan fans.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

European Union, the tenth package of sanctions one year after the start of the war in Ukraine. On Thursday 16 February the European Parliament approved, with 444 votes in favor, the resolution marking a year of war in Ukraine. The text reaffirms the complete condemnation of the Russian act of aggression and establishes the implementation by the member states of the tenth package of sanctions against Russia by the end of February. The resolution confirms the continuation of European solidarity with the Ukrainian leadership and supports the increase in the sending of military aid. Consequently, after the expected "Yes" to the supply of German-made Leopold tanks, the possibility of supplying combat aircraft to Kiev is being considered. The main European objective, enshrined in the resolution just adopted, is the completion of the legal framework that allows the confiscation of Russian assets frozen by the EU and their use for the social reconstruction of Ukraine and the compensation of war victims. Finally, the deadline "by the end of the current year" for the start of accession negotiations is reiterated to Ukraine, the Commission and the Council.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Davide Shahhosseini and Francesca Pasqualino

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Syria and Turkey, humanitarian and political earthquake. The toll of the humanitarian tragedy caused by the earthquake on the border between Syria and Turkey has reached over 44,000 deaths, of which about 38,000 in the south-eastern province of the Turkish country and about 6,000 (according to poor official estimates) in the north-western Syria, in the Idlib region. These are the poorest and least developed areas of the respective states, and, particularly in the case of Syria, an area under the control of the opposition to President Bashar al-Assad. The first aid has arrived in Damascus, but to a lesser extent than the needs of the affected population: the main cause of the delay or lack of aid can be attributed to the sanctions in force against the Assad regime and any entity that collaborates/finances it. Therefore, Assad is trying to stem the country's international isolation from the international community (alias the West), by applying a "humanitarian diplomacy" to then arrive at a "political diplomacy". The slow thawing of relations between Syria and Turkey that has occurred in recent months could accelerate due to the common humanitarian disaster and the difficulties - especially for Erdoğan - in managing the humanitarian response. However, there are numerous unknowns about relations between the two countries to aspire to future predictions.

(Sara Oldani)

Israel, clash over Justice: for weeks now, there has been a fierce internal political dispute over the right-wing government's proposals to reform the judicial system. Netanyahu's executive wants to correct the Supreme Court's excessive power over the other powers of the state. Through the 'reasonableness clause' the Court can indeed abolish any law. But the reform promoted by the governing coalition could unbalance the powers equilibrium to the opposite direction, ensuring a political control of the appointment of judges and a total elimination of the aforementioned clause. The changes are so controversial that they have prompted President Isaac Herzog himself to intervene, asking for a break for reflection from the majority forces, who do not seem, however, willing to listen to him. Moreover, oceanic demonstrations against the reform continue even in Jerusalem, the country's conservative stronghold.

(Michele Magistretti)

Tunisia, yet another authoritarian showdown by President Kaïs Saïed. On Saturday February the 13th, the security forces arrested several Tunisian political militants, former magistrates, and businessmen. Among them several prominent members of the Islamist party Ennahda - one of the most important of the country - and the Director of the main Tunisian radio, Mosaïque FM. According to local media, these people were arrested for organizing a conspiracy against state security. The opposition parties accuse President Saïed of having organized this wave of arrests to cover the decline of its popularity and the serious economic hardships experienced by the Tunisian population.

Michele Magistretti, Sara Oldani e Francesco Lorenzini

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Israel, a law revoking citizenship for terrorism offenses has been passed. On Wednesday, the Knesset passed legislation that will allow judicial authorities to revoke citizenship for those convicted of terrorism offenses. In addition, the law also provides for revocation for those suspected of receiving funding from the Palestinian National Authority -the political self-governing body that administers the Palestinian territories-. To date, there are thousands of Palestinian families receiving financial compensation from the National Authority.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Burkina Faso, wave of jihadist attacks in the first half of February. 90 people perished in Islamist terrorist attacks in Burkina Faso during the first fifteen days of February. Most of the episodes took place in the north of the country, which has long been out of the direct control of the Ouagadougou authorities. The situation risks worsening with the departure of the French special forces at the end of the month, requested by the Burkinbé government

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Mali, Tuareg tribes’ discontent grows. The Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), the political body of the nomadic tribes in northern Mali, stated in early February that it will not take part in the work of the commission responsible for finalizing the new Malian Constitution’s draft fo. Constitutional reform is a key element on the political agenda of the ruling military junta in Bamako to ensure its control on the country. The CMA’s choice is a sign of the dissatisfaction of the Tuareg populations and it stresses the possibility of a new civil war’s outbreak against the Bamako authorities after a few years of truce.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Davide Shahhosseini and Francesco Lorenzini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Elisa Maggiore: Latin America

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Laura Salvemini: Asia and the Far East

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa