Framing The World, XCII Edition
In the new issue of Framing the World we deal with what’s happening to women around the world, both in Iran after the death of Mahsa Amini and in Hungary. While stock exchanges around the world are facing a recession in the economy, progress is being made on human rights with the abolition of the death penalty in Equatorial Guinea.
All of this and much more in the 92th issue of Framing the World!
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran, protests escalate after the death of a woman. On 16 September, 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in Tehran after three days in a coma. Amini was arrested on the 13th of September by the 'moral police' for not complying with the law requiring women to cover their hair with a hijab and their arms and legs with loose clothing, a law that is in force since 1981. The police immediately denied any responsibility, stating that Amini suffered heart failure. Several doctors, however, confirmed that the wounds found on her body were attributable to a beating. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi immediately asked Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi to open an investigation regarding the incident, but this did not discourage the protests in the country. Amnesty International has called on world leaders for global action to stop the Iranian authorities' crackdown on protests, which according to some human rights groups, led to the deaths of at least 36 people in just one week.
(Lorenzo Franceschetti)
A Declaration on the protection of civilians from the use of explosive weapons is drawn up in Geneva. On the 22nd of September 2022, a declaration was composed in Geneva aimed at limiting the damage caused by the bombing of villages, towns and cities during armed conflicts. The declaration will be approved by the countries of the international community at the conference hosted in Dublin on November 18, 2022. In fact, explosive weapons, in addition to killing civilians at the time of the attack, damage the infrastructure necessary for education or health care. Therefore, States will undertake to adopt national policies and military practices aimed at avoiding harm to civilians by limiting or refraining from the use of explosive weapons in towns, cities and populated areas.
(Alice Stillone)
Hungary, women must hear foetus' heartbeat before abortion decision. On 15 September, the Interior Minister Sandor Pinter signed a decree that will obliged doctors to provide a woman seeking an abortion with “clearly identifiable evidence of the foetus' vital functions”. Abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy has been legal in Hungary since 1953 and the laws governing access to it have remained largely unchanged since then. On the one hand, the extreme right-wing parties responded enthusiastically to the passing of this law. On the other hand, Amnesty International spokesman Aron Demeter reacted harshly to the legislature, who spoke of a “worrying decline” and a decision taken “without any consultation” that would “make access to abortion more difficult” and “traumatise more women already in difficult situations”.
(Lorenzo Franceschetti)
Lorenzo Franceschetti and Alice Stillone
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
UK, the sterling sinks. The sterling-dollar exchange rate plummeted to its lowest since 1985 (£1=$1.086) after Kwarteng, the Truss government's new Chancellor of the Exchequer, presented a £45 billion package of tax cuts to parliament. The measures include the most significant tax cut since Thatcher's days, elimination of the 45% rate on higher incomes, and a reduction of taxes on dividends, with the aim of triggering a virtuous cycle of growth. However, the plan has worried markets because of doubts about its economic sustainability and the amount of new debt required, with the pound losing 3.57 % in the ensuing hours. The harshest criticism came from former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers: "The UK is behaving a bit like an emerging market turning itself into a submerging market [...], and will be remembered for having pursued the worst macroeconomic policies of any major country in a long time".
Fed, Recessionary winds? For the third consecutive time, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points, taking them to a range of 3 to 3.25 %, the highest since 2008. The 12 FOMC members also project further hikes of at least 125 points in the coming months. In the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Powell clearly said that the message has not changed from what he said in Jackson Hole, he confirmed the goal of bringing inflation back to 2 % and his intention not to stop the hikes until that goal is achieved. The words by Powell that hurt markets the most, however, were those about a possible recession caused by higher rates: "I wish there was a painless way to do it [stop inflation], there isn't"; words that almost completely erased the possibility of "soft-landing."
Stocks, deep in the red. The Fed's words and negative data from several sectors hinting at a significant economic slowdown have sent markets into deep negative territory, with the Dow Jones closing the week at -4% (at 2022 lows), the S&P500 at -4.7%, and the Nasdaq at -5%, and at the same time, 2-year bond yields have climbed to their highest since 2007 and the biggest inversion of the yield curve since 2000. All indexes are also down between 14 and 17 % since mid-August. Goldman Sachs' prediction of a year-end S&P at 3600 almost became reality 24 hours after it was published (previous target 4300), and the bank's strategists now believe that a hard-landing, or a recession induced by the restrictive monetary policies of most of the world's central banks, is inevitable, and are now focusing on its timing, duration, and magnitude.
Markets, symptoms of recession? Even before the Fed's decision and Powell's words, it was FedEx, one of the companies most integrated into the globalized economy and therefore considered one of the proverbial canaries in the coal mine, or among the first to feel the symptoms of any global downturn, that had upset the markets. Indeed, on September 16, FedEx warned investors of a significant decline in corporate profits in the second quarter, withdrew its 2023 earnings outlook, and warned that things were about to get worse. CEO Subramaniam blamed macroeconomic trends that deteriorated significantly over the summer and planned measures to cut costs and increase revenues. On the exchange, the stock plummeted 21 % in one session (-43% since January), dragging the entire logistics sector down with it.
Yen, the government's intervention. The Japanese government has intervened to strengthen the yen (by selling dollars) for the first time since 1998 after the exchange rate with the dollar collapsed to its lowest in 24 years due to the central bank's persistence in implementing its expansionary policies. Finance Minister Suzuki did not specify the extent of the intervention, but the news of the intervention was enough to send the yen up from lows of 145.89 to 140.34 in a matter of minutes, eventually settling at 143. Still, the yen has lost more than 24 % since the beginning of the year mainly because Japan, after the Swiss National Bank's latest hike, remains the last economy with negative rates, confirmed last Thursday at -0.1%, and persists in capping 10-year bond yields at 0.25%, a decision that continues to allow the government to finance itself at ultra-low rates.
Leonardo Aldeghi
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Nigeria, severe flooding. The African country is grappling with the worst floods in a decade, which have already killed 300 people as well as displaced 100,000. The floods affect 27 of Nigeria's 36 states, including the country's heavily affected capital. The country's agricultural areas have also been severely damaged, compounding fears of disrupted food supplies in Africa's most populous country. Although Nigeria is no stranger to flooding, this year's flooding, according to authorities, was caused by a variety of factors including unusually heavy rains, the resulting overflow of local waterways, and, finally, an excessive release from the Lagdo Dam in neighboring Cameroon. Authorities, referring to the current flooding, said the situation is "beyond our control."
(Andrea Ghilardi)
Equatorial Guinea, death penalty abolished. "The death penalty is totally abolished in the Republic of Equatorial Guinea," so reads the law of the new penal code signed by the head of state. In addition to being announced on national television, the above text was also posted by the vice president on Twitter to give further visibility to the news. Equatorial Guinea is one of the most closed countries in the world, ruled by a totalitarian regime led by President Nguema Mbasogo, yet the small African country has taken this important step forward for human rights. The last official execution was in 2014. However, the national government is accused of arbitrary detentions, disappearances, and torture, and the country remains under the control of an authoritarian regime.
(Andrea Ghilardi)
Uganda: up to 11 cases of Ebola, death toll rises to 4. The Ugandan Health Minister has confirmed the deaths of three other patients infected with the Ebola virus. Therefore, the death toll rises to four in total, proving the outbreak of a new disease in the region. In total, eleven cases are monitored at the moment. They all apparently originated in a village in Mubende district from the beginning of September. At the moment, the Ugandan authorities have stated that the source of the outbreak has not yet been identified, and the Ugandan military officer, Dr. Henry Kyobe, has noted that the situation "is rapidly evolving and therefore we think that the cases may rise in the next few days."
(Giulio Ciofini)
Somalia: 27 al-Shabaab militants killed by US airstrike. The US military reported that last wednsenday, an airstrike killed 27 militants of the Islamic group al-Shabaab in the Hiran region of Somalia, where the allied forces launched an offensive against the insurgents last month. According to AFRICOM reports, this is Somalia's sixth air attack this year. "The defensive attack allowed the Somali National Army and the African Union Transitional Mission forces to continue operations to disrupt al-Shabaab activities in central Somalia." The US African command also added that no civilians would be injured in the attack.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Andrea Ghilardi and Giulio Ciofini
NORTH AMERICA
USA, wave of strikes coming. Railwaymen on a war footing, with the risk of paralyzing almost a third of freight transport and costing the economy billions. Thousands of Minnesota nurses in turmoil. Again, recently: teachers on a warpath from Seattle to Ohio and auto workers protesting in the Midwest.
The signs of a warm autumn are in the air in the United States, in the face of an inflation that is eroding the standard of living. A reality that has pushed the American trade union towards a new leadership from one coast to the other of the country.
USA, status of strategic ally revoked from Afghanistan. Joe Biden has revoked Afghanistan's non-NATO "strategic ally" status. A measure announced last June. The special status was awarded to the country in 2012 by then President Barack Obama, years during which Afghanistan received military assistance and training. Since the withdrawal of all US and NATO troops in the summer of 2012, coinciding with the return to power of the Taliban, Washington and the Atlantic Alliance had suspended all support in Kabul.
USA, Pelosi: support for Armenia in the conflict with the Azeris. Mission to Armenia for Nancy Pelosi. The Democratic Speaker of the House in the American Congress arrived in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, expressing a clear signal of support for Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan, which has re-exploded in recent days. Pelosi commented: "Our meeting focused on security following the Azerbaijani attacks on Armenian territory. We condemn them without delay and these attacks threaten an urgent peace agreement."
Federico Pani
LATIN AMERICA
Argentina has officially required its BRICS membership. The Argentine republic has officially requested its membership in the economic organization of BRICS, an international cooperation formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, through its ambassador in China, while it hosted a summit within the BRICS countries in the Chinese city of Xiamen. Argentina would need recognized its membership mostly for preventing inflation and other economic crises and it is supported by its new president Alberto Fernandes. Indeed, the ambassador has said that Argentina has a lot of economic potential, mostly as the country produces on a large scale a lot of fresh aliments, and as the country is one of the biggest in the world, it has a strong potential when it comes to energy. The Argentinian candidature has been supported by all the BRICS countries and in particular the Indian prime minister recently has visited Buenos Aires for discussing eventual steps forwards.
(Francesco Andrea Rossi)
Mexico, the country hit by earthquakes. A 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck southwestern Mexico early Thursday, killing at least one person, a few days after another quake. Both last Monday and the recent earthquake on Thursday hit the state of Michoacán. Officials in Mexico City, the capital, confirmed that a woman died at her home in the Colonia Doctores neighborhood. The Michoacan state government said the earthquake was felt throughout the state. He reported damage to a building in the city of Uruapan and landslides on the highway connecting Michoacan and Guerrero with the coast. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said in a video posted on Twitter that the earthquake was an aftershock and was felt in Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco, Guerrero and Mexico City.
(Ludovica Costantini)
Brazil it’s going into its new presidential elections. Brazil is breathless for its presidential election on the next 2nd of October. The elections will run between the current president of the Federal Republic of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, and the ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva. Bolsonaro is not the favorite one and the Brazilians seems that they would rather have Lula as their president even though on these days Bolsonaro started to earn little consensus on the electoral polls. Anyway, the election of Lula would mean a significant political comeback, as the ex-president has been jailed in 2017 along with other members of the Brazilian elite, while now his criminal offenses have been removed. Moreover, the elections of Lula would mean that Latin America will keep its Ola Roja (Red Wave) after that countries like Mexico, Argentina, Chile and Colombia all elected left presidents. To conclude, the Brazilian elections are of primary importance for our world, as we will see which will be the destiny of the Amazon forest.
(Francesco Andrea Rossi)
Colombia, Request to the UN to legalise cocaine in the world. During his address to the 77th General Assembly of the United Nations, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, analysing the failures of the decades-long war on drugs and the danger of the intensive exploitation of natural resources (such as coal and oil) to the environment and humanity, called for an 'end to the irrational war on drugs' and to think of an alternative way to intervene in the cause of drug use. President Petro denounced the dogged cultivation of coca as a factor in the destruction of the jungle and explained how instead the cocaine plant is useful for the Amazon rainforest to continue to give off planetary oxygen and absorb carbon dioxide. For the president, 'to decrease drug use we do not need war, we need to build a better society, more solidarity, more affection, in which the intensity of life preserves from addiction and new slavery'.
(Elisa Maggiore)
El Salvador, Bukele's offer of re-election feeds new concerns. While many welcome El Salvador Bukele's plan to seek a second term, activists say it could accelerate further rights violations. A deeper descent into authoritarianism, or the extension of a presidency that most citizens believe has improved the country. These were the two main reactions in El Salvador when President Nayib Bukele said last week that he intends to seek re-election in 2024. Despite communities' alarms over human rights protection, the President enjoys rising consensus rates. constant: perhaps re-election is not so utopian.
(Ludovica Costantini)
Venezuela resumes diplomatic relations with Colombia. After three years of 'diplomatic divorce' between Venezuela and Colombia (which followed due to the failure of Colombia's former president Iván Duque to recognise Maduro as president of Venezuela, who instead recognised opposition leader Juan Guaidó as such), the new Colombian president Gustavo Petro has chosen the path of normalising diplomatic relations with Venezuela, announcing on 11 August, together with President Maduro, the common intention of both Latin American states to embark on a new process of diplomatic normalisation. The latter includes the exchange of ambassadors and the full reopening of the border. But that is not all, because Venezuela and Colombia also intend to re-establish military relations.
(Elisa Maggiore)
Ludovica Costantini, Francesco Andrea Rossi and Elisa Maggiore
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
North Korea denies selling artillery to Russia. North Korea denies the claims of the US intelligence according to which it supplied weapons to Russia, accusing in turn Washington of spreading rumors to attack the country’s image. Indeed, earlier this month an intelligence assessment from Washington first spread the news that Moscow was looking to buy weapons from North Korea for its war in Ukraine. State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Padel expressed his worry for the situation, announcing that the Russian Ministry of Defense was in the process of buying “millions of rockets and artillery” from Pyongyang. A North Korean official replied to these accusations, warning the US to “stop making reckless remarks”. The North Korean support for Putin does not come as a surprise, given that even during the international condemnation of the war, president Kim Jong-un has expressed support for Vladimir Putin and recognized the independence of Moscow-led breakaway regions of Luhanks and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
China, former Justice Minister jailed for life for corruption, amid security officials purge. China’s ex Justice Minister Fu Zhenghua, who previously led several high-profile corruption investigations, was given a death sentence to be commuted to life in prison after two years, under the accusation of having accepted bribes. This happens amid the purge of officials ahead of the 20th Communist Party congress set to start next month. Fu was a deputy head of the Ministry of Public Security before becoming Justice Minister in 2018 and was head of the investigation of Zhou Youngkang a decade ago, the most powerful official in modern China to be convicted of bribery. Fu has now admitted to accepting bribes exceeding 117 million yuan (around 17.3 million dollars).
Laura Salvemini
WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
Germany intends to nationalize Uniper. In an attempt to secure energy supplies, Germany, which is Europe’s largest importer of Russian gas and has been particularly hard hit by the reduction of supplies from Russia in recent months, wants to nationalize Uniper. Currently controlled by the Finnish state-owned energy company Fortum, Uniper operates gas, coal, and hydroelectric plants across Europe and is the largest consumer of Russian gas in Germany. Due to increasing energy prices, Uniper has had to replace Russian supplies with alternatives from the free market. In fact, the company asked the government for help in July in view of its impending bankruptcy. In addition to this bailout, there is a €65 billion government plan to safeguard the German energy system.
Sweden, the center-right coalition won the elections. After more than ten years in opposition, the right has overtaken the centre-left and won the elections on September 11th. The real winner of the elections seems to be the leader of the Sweden Democrats, extreme right-wing, Jimmie Åkesson. However, although he got more than 20% of the vote, he might not become Prime Minister; it seems that Ulf Kristersson, the leader of the Moderates, will win the position. Åkesson, in any case, will have an important influence on the next government, especially on the issue of immigration.
Bianca Franzini
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
Poland requires war reparation to Germany for the damages created during WWII. The Polish Government has required the reparations of the damages caused by Germany during World War II, on the 83rd anniversary of its outbreak. New Negotiations have started with Germany, as according to Poland, many countries received war reparations bills but Poland has not, so Warsaw is seeking to receive all the money expected. The polish government declared that the damages amount is about 1,3 trillion of Euro and according to some polish analyst, due the situation of the German economy, the country can afford to pay right now its war duties.
Romania, Ukraine and Moldova sign an energetic trilateral treaty. The ministers of the three countries have decided on signing a treaty that covers the energetic cooperation within Romania, Ukraine and Moldova. Indeed, The Agreement has been signed in Odessa and has the objective of providing and improving energetic security in the region. Apparently, it looks like that the agreement is the first in the history of international relations within those countries and it has been signed mostly for humanitarian needs. The three ministers have strongly condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and they keep supporting the European integration of Ukraine and Moldova. The Moldovan prime minister also declared that the treaty has a meaningful historic importance and since it was signed for a closer energetic integration, it shows that the three countries are ready to take a step forward on a deeper European integration.
Hungary, Brussels thinks of reducing 20% of its funds destinated to Budapest. The European Union is thinking of cutting 20% of its funds destinated to the government of Budapest and of Victor Orban. According to Brussels, some of the basic rules of the European finance have been violated by Hungary, in particular the ones that cover the public interests and the trust, and the Hungarian government is taking the Whole EU into a situation of financial risk, and consequently the Hungarian government will face the reduction of the European founds. Brussels will have to evaluate the irregularities of the management of its funds. The Relationships within Hungary and Brussels are becoming more tense and according to some EU analysts, Hungary cannot be considered, anymore, as an European Democratic country.
Francesco Andrea Rossi
MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Israel, a disruptive speech. While the domestic situation remains tense, amidst the economic crisis and terrorist attacks, the current liberal prime minister, Yair Lapid, puts the Palestinian issue back on the agenda. In front of the United Nations General Assembly, Lapid has put the solution concerning the two countries in the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict back on the agenda, trying to extend a hand of détente to other Muslim countries as well - Indonesia and Saudi Arabia in primis. The news was welcomed more internationally than domestically. In fact, the prime minister's right-wing allies themselves strongly criticized this new stance. Obviously, Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition lashed out furiously against Lapid's proposed project, speaking of submitting to terrorism.
(Michele Magistretti)
Lebanon, fleeing to Europe. The land of cedars has become a starting point of a new migratory route in the Eastern Mediterranean, causing tragedies and pushbacks. The toll of the last sea voyage - supported by two human traffickers stopped by the Lebanese army - is at least 80 dead in the shipwreck: the boat left Minyeh, a port in northern Lebanon, with around 120-150 people on board of Lebanese, Syrian and Palestinian nationality. There are more and more attempts to reach Europe illegally, especially because of the economic and financial crisis that began in 2019, and is worsening due to the war in Ukraine. The long wait for outgoing visas and the permanent status quo in the country push citizens, who live in absolute poverty conditions, to try alternative ways. Lebanon is plunging into the abyss, with such social discontent that in recent weeks there have been attacks on banks in order to take their savings, that otherwise would be blocked. Institutions have stated that support for the most needy families will be encouraged, but most Lebanese are skeptical and resigned.
(Sara Oldani)
Sara Oldani, Samuele Abrami and Michele Magistretti
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Estonia, government recalls reservists. During an address to the nation, broadcast live on television, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas announced the Executive's decision to recall reservists and members of the Defense League for an extraordinary session of exercises. The PM stressed that as of today the Ukrainian crisis does not pose a direct threat to national security, however, the new course of the war requires the country to take measures in the area of defense capabilities in order not to be unprepared should an imminent danger arise.
(Davide Shahhosseini)
Iran, blocked internet access throughout the country. Following the violent protests that swept through the capital after the death of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old woman who died in jail on Sept. 16 in Tehran after being arrested by moral police for not wearing her headscarf properly, the government - as reported by NetBlocks - has blocked all internet access channels, isolating the country from the rest of the world. Violent clashes between protesters and security forces have so far left nine people dead, including a police officer and two men belonging to pro-government militias.
(Davide Shahhosseini)
Syria, risk of cholera epidemic. The UN, on the basis of information from agencies connected to it, has declared that the health situation in the Euphrates basin is "extremely worrying" and if not kept under control it could spread throughout Syria, exacerbating even more the dramatic conditions of the inhabitants. According to the United Nations Office for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), there are currently 936 cases of acute diarrhea - the main symptom of cholera - and at least 8 official deaths. The outbreak is located in Aleppo, where 72.2% of the infected have been recorded, while the other areas close to the Euphrates are Dayr az Zoz (21.5% of infections), Hasake (4.1%) and Raqqa (1.8%). The main cause of the epidemic seems to be the supply of both drinking and irrigating with the non-potable (and untreated) water of the Euphrates. For months, the UN delegate in Syria had experienced an unprecedented water crisis, a situation that could further worsen the levels of inequality in the country and lead to a war for the grabbing of resources.
(Sara Oldani)
Davide Shahhosseini and Sara Oldani
Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.
Andrea Ghilardi: Western Europe and the European Union, Sub-Saharan Africa
Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union
Chiara Giovannoni: Human Rights
Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security
Elisa Maggiore: Latin America
Federico Pani: North America
Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa
Laura Salvemini: Asia and the Far East
Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance
Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights
Ludovica Costantini: Latin America
Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa
Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Samuele Abrami: Middle-East and North Africa
Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa, Terrorism and International Security