Dengue fever, 2024 could mark a new record of cases in South America.

Translated by Giulia Maffeis

In the last twenty years, the global incidence of dengue fever has increased significantly. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the number of infections has increased tenfold from 2000 to the present. The most affected region by this virus is South America, where 80 percent of the total cases are reported.

Concerns about the spread of this disease had already circulated last year when there were approximately 5.5 million cases worldwide, with 4.56 million in Latin America and the Caribbean. This set a new record, surpassing the 1.74 million infections reported in 2022 in the South American continent. The number of deaths also followed an upward trajectory: 2,341 in 2023, compared to 1,290 in the previous twelve months.

The expansion of dengue in Latin America and the Caribbean could worsen this year. According to data provided by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), in the first two months of 2024, there were over 1.5 million cases in South America, with 315 deaths related to the virus.

What is dengue fever?

Prevalent in tropical and subtropical climates, dengue fever is a viral disease primarily transmitted through the bites of Aedes Egypti mosquitoes (also known as the 'yellow fever mosquito') and Aedes Albopictus (known as the 'tiger mosquito'). There is no direct human-to-human transmission. The virus remains in the bloodstream of the infected person for a period of two to seven days, during which a mosquito can acquire it and transfer it to another individual through a bite. Dengue exists in five different serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, DENV-4, DENV-5). Infection with one serotype does not provide immunity against the others.

Dengue contraction can cause symptoms such as fever, headache, muscle pain, and pain around the eyes. In rare cases, internal bleeding may occur, leading to conditions like circulatory shock and potentially death (mortality rate is 1-5 percent).

There is no specific treatment for the disease. Immune defenses within the infected person's body typically combat the virus. Medical care can help reduce symptoms and alleviate pain. However, due to the increasing number of cases, vaccines have been developed to prevent infection. The most recent product was developed by the pharmaceutical company Takeda, which is making significant strides in Brazil and Argentina, where an advanced emergency situation is underway.

South American outbreaks

Brazil, in particular, has recorded a record number of dengue cases in 2024. According to data from the Ministry of Health, Brazilians who contracted the virus in the first six weeks of the year numbered 455,255, marking a 218 percentincrease compared to the same period in the last five years. Experts suggest this number could quintuple by the end of the year. The count of deaths due to the disease also rose in January and February: 258 this year compared to 205 last year. The government initiated the 'D-Day' on Saturday, March 2, to raise awareness about disease prevention. Brazilian health authorities sent operators to various locations to provide citizens with useful advice to contain the epidemic. One recommendation, for instance, is to check for stagnant water accumulations where mosquitoes can lay eggs.

The situation is dire not only in Brazil. The entire tropical Latin American region is affected by dengue. In Peru, a health emergency was declared at the end of February: 18,000 certified cases and 32 deaths have been reported nationwide since the beginning of the year. Argentina had already taken similar measures, reinforcing national precautions at the end of December, in response to 135,676 infections and 68 deaths throughout 2023. Paraguay is also facing a surge in cases, with over 95,000 infections reported in the first six weeks of 2024, representing a 425 percent increase compared to the previous five years.

Factors behind the rise

The increase in cases in the region is attributed to climatic conditions favoring the proliferation of mosquitoes that serve as vectors for the virus. The rise in temperatures associated with climate change has played a decisive role. Additionally, the meteorological phenomenon known as El Niño, which occurred between December and January, caused a significant warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean, affecting air humidity and precipitation frequency.

Alongside these factors, the rise in the number of cases can be linked to social and political factors of our time, such as the fragility of healthcare systems amid the Covid-19 pandemic and the challenges various governments face in managing humanitarian crises and population movements.

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