Abstract
Held from 30th November to 12th December in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in Dubai, COP28 constituted a significant and historical event for climate diplomacy. The event followed COP27 and, with a controversial presidency and an important agenda, it concluded the rounds of negotiations with consensus on the shift away from fossil fuels. The final declaration, the so-called UAE consensus, was signed by 198 countries that agreed on a climate strategy and action to keep the 1.5° target. Moreover, this conference emphasized the role of climate finance, raising the number of countries involved in funds for loss and damage, and opened the discussion to the topics of health and food production.
Stefania Paterno (Junior Researcher G.E.O. Environment)
Miriam Viscusi (Junior Researcher G.E.O. Environment)
Introduction
Held from 30th November to 12th December in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in Dubai, COP28 constituted a significant and historical event for climate diplomacy. The event followed COP27, whose major outcomes were left incomplete and without clear settings. One legacy from the previous Conference was the missing agreement on the phasing out of fossil fuels. Moreover, there had been no real agreement of climate finance and no real constraints for what concerns the “loss and damage fund”. The premises for COP28 were, then, critical. High expectations were put on the event, which started in a controversial way as it was held in a country that heavily contributes to emissions and fossil fuels extraction. Moreover, the agenda was ambitious and involved newest topics like food production and health-environment relationship. In July 2023, a letter addressed to the parties by the presidency claimed for four transformative shifts that needed to characterize COP28. They were: “Fast-tracking the energy transition and slashing emissions before 2030; Transforming climate finance, by delivering on old promises and setting the framework for a new deal on finance; Putting nature, people, lives and livelihoods at the heart of climate action; Mobilizing for the most inclusive COP ever.” (UNFCCC, 2023).
This analysis aims at reporting the main results arising from the conference, including declarations and initiatives, as well as the positions adopted by various countries during the negotiations. The structure of the analysis will align with the conference action plan, which is built upon four crucial pillars: people, nature, lives, and livelihoods; energy transition; climate finance; inclusivity.
- COP28 Main Results
2.1 The UAE Consensus
On the last day of the COP28, 198 nations came together to sign The UAE Consensus, a historic accord. Maintaining the target of keeping global warming below 1.5°C is an ambitious objective, and this treaty lays out a daring climate strategy to achieve it. To reach this target, it is necessary to phase out fossil fuels and achieve a net-zero carbon scenario by 2050. It also promotes NDCs from all economic sectors and sets the specific goal of trebling renewable energy usage and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. In order to realize the objectives of this landmark agreement, the COP28 Presidency has stressed the importance of inclusivity and collaboration.
In addition to establishing the Global Goal on Adaptation and formalizing the position of the Youth Climate Champion, significant strides were taken at COP28 towards resolving the Loss and Damage fund, which received an initial budget of $792 million. More than $85 billion in investment and eleven official promises and declarations were among the remarkable outcomes of the Presidency's Action Agenda, which prioritized energy transition, climate finance, people, environment, and inclusivity. Among the program's notable achievements are the following: the establishment of ALTÉRRA, a $30 billion private investment initiative; the signing of the "COP28 UAE Agreement on Agriculture, Food, & Climate" and the "COP28 UAE Agreement on Climate and Health"; and the launch of the Global Decarbonization Accelerator (GDA), which includes pledges such as the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter, and the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Part
In order to raise climate ambitions and strengthen cooperation, the COP28 Presidency plans to negotiate a collaborative settlement with Brazil, the host country of COP30, to guarantee the agreements’ execution and continuity across COP29 and COP30. Working together with Azerbaijan, the host of COP29, this partnership will submit ambitious revised climate strategies at COP30.
2.2 People, nature, lives, and livelihoods
1. COP28 UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Actions
Recognizing the crucial role that agriculture and food systems play in supporting billions of people, particularly small-scale and family farmers, fishers, and food sector workers, a critical commitment was made at COP28 to address the difficulties that climate change presents to these systems, the so-called “COP28 UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Actions.” The declaration includes five goals, which will have to be incorporated into national climate and policy agendas by 2025. In turn, policies will have to be revised, financing will have to be improved, technology will have to be advanced, and the international trading system will have to be strengthened.
Significant financial commitments were already made to back these objectives. For example, philanthropic donors contributed USD $389 million and Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate (AIM4Climate) donated USD $3.4 billion. Significant contributions were made to the Technical Cooperation Collaborative (TCC) by the United Kingdom and Italy. There will be over 200 non-state players at the next COP who have pledged to make the food system change a top priority. A toolbox was also produced to assist countries in enhancing their climate policy frameworks, and an initiative was established by the UN-Deputy Secretary General to assist governments in incorporating these goals into their climate action plans.
Notable achievements related to water included the inaugural COP Ministerial Dialogue on Developing Food Systems that are Resilient to Water, the introduction of a Water and Climate-Resilient Infrastructure Investment Strategy by Water Equity, the launch of the Urban Water Catalyst Initiative (UWCI) by Germany and the Netherlands, and the addition of more than 30 countries pledging to safeguard and rehabilitate 30% of the world’s deteriorated freshwater ecosystems by 2030.
2. COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate and Health
Acknowledging the possible adverse impacts of climate change on global health, international leaders and health advocates expressed their deepest concerns during COP28. In a joint effort between the COP28 Presidency and the World Health Organization, the “COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate and Health” received the backing of 143 nations. Incorporating health objectives into national climate strategies, increasing funding for climate-health programs, fostering cross-sector collaboration, and bolstering health systems are all stressed throughout the declaration. With the help of groups like the Green Climate Fund and the Global Fund, the COP28 Presidency developed ten principles for solutions to climate change and health issues. More than 40 financial partners have promised over USD $1 billion to back these principles. Health organizations, particularly those in lower and middle-income nations, face financial difficulties; this commitment seeks to alleviate these difficulties by increasing investments from sources like domestic budgets, development banks, philanthropies, bilateral agencies, and the private sector while also optimizing the use of resources. To achieve the best possible health outcomes, the pledge stresses the importance of sharing information, being transparent, and conducting evaluations. It also requests that international finance providers better coordinate their climate and health portfolios.
3. Nature, Land Use, and Ocean Day
Adding to the USD $2.5 billion raised during the Climate Action Summit, leaders offered approximately USD $186 million in additional money for climate change and environmental protection during COP28’s Nature, Land Use, and Ocean Day. These pledges will greatly benefit natural ecosystems, such as forests, mangroves, landscape restoration, and the ocean. The importance of working together with local communities and indigenous peoples was emphasized throughout the day, as was the interdependence of the land, ocean, climate, and wildlife. Achieving over 30% of the mitigation needed to reach the 1.5°C target by 2030 may be achieved by reversing nature loss, which was acknowledged as crucial. International efforts to protect the environment and the climate will be coordinated, according to the joint declaration of the United Arab Emirates’ COP28 and the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Presidency. The Mangrove Alliance for Climate and the High-Level Ocean Panel are two of the many new projects. In addition, the Science-Based Target Network was able to get the commitment of more than 150 businesses to establish climate and environmental goals. Projects aimed at achieving climate and biodiversity goals were announced at the World Climate Action Summit with initial funding of USD $1.7 billion. The UAE, together with several other nations, has pledged USD $100 million to support environmental and climate change programs. These initiatives provide substantial savings in costs and reductions in emissions by 2030, and they are in line with pledges to fight against the loss of natural habitats and land degradation. The UAE-Brazil relationship from COP28 to COP30 recognized the contributions of Indigenous Peoples and emphasized cooperation.
2.3 Energy Transition
1. High-Level Dialogues with IEA and the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge
During COP28 it was stressed that if we are to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement and secure a sustainable future there must be an immediate transition to renewable energy sources and greater efficiency in managing energy consumption. For this reason, High-Level Dialogues were convened by International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol and COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber to discuss ways to speed up the energy transition to achieve the 1.5°C goal. The aim of the 40+ countries and 20+ organizations represented at the Dialogues – which included ministers and CEOs – was to cut demand and supply for fossil fuels this decade, accelerate the rate of energy efficiency advances by 100% per year, and triple the world’s renewable energy capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030.
While recognizing that many countries, particularly developing ones, are making headway in meeting their carbon neutrality and Nationally Determined Contributions, world leaders have reaffirmed their call for bold action in the coming years. Power Breakthrough Agenda priorities include facilitating faster approvals, increasing grid connections, boosting efficiency, electrification, and demand management, and lending international support to these initiatives. A fair and organized energy transition, with wealthier nations supporting developing ones, and an increase in spending for climate programs to almost USD $4.5 trillion a year by the early 2030s were all points of agreement.
At the fifth and last Dialogue, delegates agreed on five guiding principles for COP28: increasing the production of renewable energy worldwide by a factor of three by 2030, doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency by the same year, decreasing the demand for fossil fuels by the same year (including the halting of new coal plants), securing a commitment from the oil and gas industry to the 1.5°C target, and establishing financial mechanisms to invest in clean energy. Prohibiting new coal plants without carbon capture technology and speeding up the decommissioning of existing facilities are two of the coal-related measures emphasized by the 130 governments that have accepted the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge. Sustainable Development Goal 7, which aims to tackle climate change and improve energy access and poverty, is in line with this pledge.
With the help of IRENA and the UNFCCC, the Dialogues demonstrated a firm resolve to establish concrete targets for the capacity and efficiency of renewable energy sources. It was stressed how important it is for nations to speed up their energy transition and how programs like the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) may help impoverished nations.
2. Other instruments for decarbonization
At the World Climate Action Summit, COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber unveiled the Global Decarbonization Accelerator (GDA), a program with three primary goals: (1) hastening the shift to cleaner energy sources; (2) reduce emissions from the existing energy system; and (3) tackle non-CO2 greenhouse gasses, especially methane. The Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge is one of the major pledges in the GDA. The GDA also includes as one of its components the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter (OGDC), which was signed by 50 companies, 60% of which are National Oil Companies, including Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, and BP. Under this voluntary agreement, the majority of methane leaks are to be eliminated by 2030 and routine gas flaring is to be stopped. In order to reach such a goal, corporate initiatives, legislative actions, and monitoring of methane emissions are necessary.
Another instrument towards carbon neutrality that came out of COP28 is the Declaration of Intent on the Mutual Recognition of Certification Schemes for Renewable and Low-Carbon Hydrogen and Hydrogen Derivatives, with over 30 nations that voiced their support. A worldwide market for renewable and low-carbon hydrogen and its derivatives is promoted, which essentially highlights the significance of clean hydrogen and lays out measures towards the recognition of certification schemes on an international level.
2.4. Climate Finance
The goal of the “COP28 UAE Declaration on a Global Climate Financing Framework” was to increase the amount of climate finance, reframe climate investments as economic opportunities, and make sure that climate funding is readily available, affordable, and easy to obtain. As part of this effort, the Global Climate Finance Centre was established.
Climate finance was defined as the “great enabler of climate action” and was one leading topic of the 2023 conference. On the first day, November 30th, an agreement was found on the Loss and Damage Fund. This tool aims to enable most disadvantaged countries to cope with the adaptation and mitigation of climate change effects. A series of funds exists, like the Green Climate Fund (GCF) that has now reached USD $ 12,8 billion with the contribution of 31 countries. The Least Developed Countries Fund and the Special Climate Change Fund account together to USD $ 174 million. However, key elements have not been defined. First of all, the threshold for damage and loss, meaning there is no specific indication of what constitutes a damage or a loss to be repaired through this fund. Secondly, the definition of “developing” and “developed” countries, where the former should receive aid from the latter, is still blurred. Countries like China are not included in the responsible party, even if their emissions are among the highest. A third element that is not clear after COP28 is over is where the money will come from and how to align these funds with already existing UNFCCC funds and non-state actors’ contributions.
The United Arab Emirates has pledged USD $30 billion to ALTÉRRA, making it the biggest private investment vehicle for combating climate change. The aim is to raise USD $250 billion worldwide by 2030. Along with the “Innovate for Climate Tech” group and Investcorp, the USD $750 million Climate Solutions Investment Platform was launched at COP28 with the purpose of supporting climate technology businesses.
Several Multilateral Development Banks have pledged large sums of money to combat climate change; for example, the Inter-American Development Bank has promised to invest USD $5 billion towards sustainable development in the Amazon region and raise climate funding to USD $150 billion in the following decade. With an additional USD $9 billion each year for the following two years, the World Bank hoped to increase its climate finance target to 45% by 2025, with USD $40 billion yearly by that year. The Islamic Development Bank (IDB) pledged USD $1 billion to help nations adapt to climate change that have been hit hard by conflicts, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) set aside USD $10 billion for climate initiatives in the Philippines. Farmers across Africa now have access to climate impact insurance and green infrastructure thanks to the African Development Bank.
At COP28, there were also attempts to help low-income and vulnerable nations through climate disasters by including climate-resilient debt clauses (CRDCs) into financing processes. There was a commitment to include CRDCs in loans from many countries, monetary organizations, and banks.
2.5. Inclusivity
In a significant shift, the UAE has taken the lead in organizing the inaugural COP28 Business and Philanthropy Climate Forum, which highlights the vital role that businesses play in combating climate change. More than a thousand CEOs and philanthropists from more than 80 countries gathered for this unique meeting, which brought attention to a recent shift in emphasis towards industry-specific developments and opportunities, especially in the Global South. Instead of just making empty promises, the event outlined over 20 concrete steps that business leaders can implement right now. Addressing climate change, biodiversity loss, and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, it prioritized tangible steps, smart partnerships, and sustainable changes. Investment commitments totaling USD $5 billion in climate and environmental projects were announced on the first day of the meeting. Nations most at risk from climate change will get USD $200 million from the UAE to help them become more resilient. Several climate projects were discussed on the second day, including healthcare supply chain carbon emissions and methane emission reduction. For a more sustainable economy, keynote speaker Kristalina Georgieva argued that businesses, charities, and international organizations should work together.
On Gender Equality Day at COP28, the spotlight was on taking action to mitigate climate change and make sure that transitions are fair and inclusive, with a special emphasis on women. The goal of the effort is to help women feel more empowered as we move towards a low-carbon economy and close the gender data gap.
3.Negotiations and blocks
The COP28 has concluded with a historic agreement that urges all nations to cut back on fossil fuel consumption. There is an immediate need to decrease emissions of greenhouse gasses to keep global warming below 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels, but the report does not call for the total elimination of fossil fuels. Because of the wide range of national opinions represented at the summit, the exact wording of the deal was up for grabs. Despite the lack of the word “phase-out” for fossil fuels, the deal was nevertheless deemed satisfactory by certain countries, notably the United States and the United Kingdom. Their view was that it was a major step forward and the beginning of a worldwide effort to phase out fossil fuels. Some members of the US delegation, however, wanted more forceful wording and a more explicit end to the use of fossil fuels.
For their part, European nations want more robust rhetoric and more support from the developed world, according to Denmark’s climate minister. To be sure, they did not deny that the agreement symbolized a worldwide shift away from fossil fuels. But, in its request for fossil fuel phase-out, they wanted the word “unabated” included so that carbon capture and storage may have been considered.
Their presence in climate discussions of the Alliance of Small Island States is of utmost importance, as these nations are especially at risk from climate-related sea level rise. They voiced their disapproval of the deal, citing what they saw as “loopholes” and worries that it failed to adequately tackle their vulnerabilities and requirements. Indigenous tribes and climate justice organizations claimed the deal did not treat historically oppressed people fairly.
To ease their transition to renewable energy sources, developing nations have voiced their support for phasing out fossil fuels and have emphasized the importance of rich nations providing financial and technological support. The way funding for climate action was handled in the pact was a source of concern for several nations. The document recognizes that poorer nations require more financial support but does not compel wealthy nations to give more aid. Given the historical economic benefits of fossil fuels to industrialized countries, there were also questions about the justice of expecting all nations to switch at the same time.
The world’s leading deployer of renewable technology, China, opted not to join the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge. Factors such as China’s unwillingness to participate in COP side agreements, difficulties in achieving the Pledge’s objectives, and worries about responsibility and execution played a role in this move. Among the factors that contributed to China’s choice were its bureaucratic culture and its worries about legal responsibility. The results of the conference shed light on China’s energy strategy, especially on the country’s readiness to shake things up. In 2025, China will provide new goals and policy actions for its 2030 and 2035 nationally determined contributions (NDCs), according to Climate Envoy Xie Zhenhua. The strategic uncertainty allows for the possibility of revisions to China’s climate objectives. Not only that, but China’s position on coal and the peaking of global emissions highlights the intricacies of its energy transition at home and how it affects climate talks abroad.
Conclusion
The global battle against climate change reached a turning point at COP28. Nearly 200 countries have signed the UAE Consensus, which outlines a thorough climate policy and stresses the critical need to keep global warming below 1.5°C. Achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and “transitioning away” from fossil fuels were two of the historic goals outlined in this deal, which also clarified the necessity of inclusivity and collaboration in reaching these lofty targets.
Even though COP28 produced historic declarations and agreements, many remained disappointed that it did not call for the complete “phasing out” of energy production from fossil fuels. In order to reach the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, climate action must be accelerated before 2030, as science shows, by increasing renewable energy, reducing coal power, and eliminating subsidies for fossil fuels. Nonetheless, climate scientists’ views on the final deal were varied. In the eyes of some, it was a giant leap towards the elimination of fossil fuels. A number of people, instead, felt that it was lacking in concrete plans for cutting emissions by certain dates, as the occurrence and effect of severe weather events has made it an issue that needs immediate action. Inaction to curb emissions from fossil fuels has shortened the window of opportunity to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. This highlights the critical nature of tackling climate change, since time is running out to make a difference. That is why, a number of voices are demanding swifter and more targeted responses to the climate catastrophe, notwithstanding the agreement. On top of that, environmental protection and the needs of future generations have not been met by the deal.
According to Reuters, another element that is crucial in the fight against climate change, and that has been overlooked at COP28, is soil health. In a healthy soil, 27% of global emissions and three times the carbon in the atmosphere can be stored. Looking at these facts, the long-term investment in soil conservation and regeneration should deserve the same level of funding as renewable energy sources.
The world’s fight against climate change has reached a turning point with COP28, but scientists keep warning us that there needs to be swift and tangible measures to phase out fossil fuels and reduce emissions. More rapid action, greater inclusivity, and international cooperation are required to address the climate catastrophe. Our unwavering commitment to confront the climate disaster will determine the fate of our world and the quality of life for generations to come.
Information Content | ||
1 | Confirmed | Confirmed by other independent sources; logical in itself; coherent with other information on the topic |
2 | Presumably true | Not confirmed; logical in itself; coherent with other information on the topic |
3 | Maybe true | Not confirmed; reasonably logical in itself; coherent with some other information on the topic |
4 | Uncertain | Not confirmed; possible but not logical in itself; no other information on the topic |
5 | Improbable | Not confirmed; not logical in itself; contradicts with other information on the topic |
6 | Not able to be evaluated | No basis to evaluate the validity of the information |
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