Miriam Viscusi (Senior Geo Researcher)
Abstract
After Cop30 in the Amazon Brazil, a new edition of the conference of the parties is going to start on 9th November in Antalya, Turkey, with a shared presidency with the government of Australia. The event, at its 31st edition, will focus on electrification and food systems mainly, but it will also face a complex geopolitical situation and new electoral scenario after the US midterm elections. In this context, as in the previous editions, institutional representatives are expected to discuss significant progress in climate diplomacy and climate action, trying to fill the gap between political decisions and civil society’s most urgent needs. This paper outlines the main topics that are expected to be at the centre of Cop31, as well as the expectations for the outcomes.
Introduction
Cop31 is being hosted by the government of Turkey, which hosts the venue of the event in Antalya, and by the government of Australia, which will lead the political discussion with the Ministry for Climate and Energy Chris Brown. Drawing from the historical previous edition held in the Brazilian Amazon, this new event shifts from multilateralism and biodiversity rights towards two main topics: electrification and food security. However, some challenges left from the previous edition and are expected to be faced. First and foremost, the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels and the provision of compensation to the countries most affected. . Lastly, it is still unclear how natural disasters and oceans will be part of this edition.
Moreover, this year should pave the way for what is expected to happen in the next edition. This will be held in Ethiopia and is already considered a crucial moment for the Global Goal on Adaptation (Gga), the initiative adopted in Cop28 and comprising a list of actions for the climate adaptation. How this would be possible is also related to how much the topic will be discussed in Turkey. The conversation, this year, should include the topic of how to finance the Gga and how many financing goes to developing countries.
The geopolitical context and international scenario also need to be mentioned: Cop31 happens in a troubled electoral year. In many countries elections have just been held, like the US with midterm elections and Brazil at the end of October, and others are going to vote soon like Spain on the 29th of November. There are also important elections planned in 2027, such as in Italy and France. Moreover, with the Democrats win in the midterm elections, some start to bring new hope to the possibility of a return of US representatives at the table. Even if this is not the immediate case, this is a different scenario compared to 2025 when Trump’s administration decided to leave the meeting unattended. On the background, there is the global energetic crisis related to instability and war in the Gulf region. The consequences of this situation will reflect how countries' delegates will conduct the negotiations.
Electrification: 35 x 35 is the new goal
The Turkish presidency stated that the main topic of Cop31 will be electrification, setting a specific goal summarized by the slogan “35x35”. It means that by 2035 electricity should cover 35 per cent of the total energy consumption in the world. This amount, today, is 20 per cent. This ambitious goal is based on the fact that today clean energy is mostly electric.
Also, according to the International energy agency (IEA), electrification can lead to a more powerful and faster energy transition. Moreover, it is a key diversification strategy when countries that rely on oil export are involved in conflicts. On the other hand, the topic is connected to data centers and the massive use of energy they require. Electrification, however, should be related to phasing out from fossil fuels, which has not been stated as a clear goal. Turkey and Australia, together with other countries like Ethiopia, Brazil, Canada, Philippines, launched in June the initiative “Electrify now”, a global platform to accelerate the electrification of houses, industry and transport with the 35x35 goal. “Through Electrify Now, the partners will focus attention, reinforce commitments and expand action to drive rapid implementation of electrification and clean energy over the coming years”, the countries stated in an official declaration. Such initiative is also connected to the electrical consumption related to data centers and artificial intelligence. In this regard, Turkish presidency proposed a collective commitment to face the consumption of energy from the data centers, as well as to include AI in the solutions to climate change.
Food security: resilience in agriculture as the path to the future
The second main topic in Cop31 will be food security and how to build safe and resilient agricultural systems. Turkey included sustainable food systems as a high priority in this years’ event. Droughts, poverty and conflicts are especially affecting crops and therefore food systems all over the world, affecting especially the poorest countries or conflict zones. In this context, Cop31 includes many panels and meetings about solutions to strengthen alimentary resilience. For example, there will be a discussion about investments in resilience like early-warning systems and anticipatory action. Also, it will be discussed the future of the Sharm el Sheikh Climate Action on Agriculture and Food Security (Sjwa), agreed in Cop27, whose mandate runs until Cop31. For this reason, the progresses and scopes of Sjwa will have a central role.
Conclusion
As the Cop31 starts, many challenges shape the event and the future. Starting from electrification, chosen as the main topic of the event, as well as food systems and agricultural resilience, Cop31 should fill the gap between reality urgencies and diplomaticy and policies. Together, Turkey and Australia have the mission to lead countries' representatives to shape concrete solutions for financing the adaptation, coping with the development of IA and shaping a sustainable more electrified world.
Bibliography
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