Abstract:
Over the course of the past two decades, climate change has increasingly become an imminent issue in the international agenda. So much so, that multiple branches of intergovernmental organizations have created climate mitigation structures. Climate change has presented a multilateral collective action problem, involving not only developing and transitional countries but also developed nations. Specifically, regarding the UN, they have branched out in creating United Nations Environment Program, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The UNFCC has conducted multiple operations to mitigate and assimilate countries to reduce their carbon emissions in a timely manner. The Paris Agreement, The Kyoto Protocol, and the Glasgow Climate Conference have been notable mentions of their abilities of implementation.
Theoretical Discussion & Hypothesis:
Centering on the creation of UNFCC, their emergence into the political realm was used as “the first step in towards creating a regime to govern climate change. Framework conventions are used in situations where negotiations can agree that a problem exists and, on some principles, but not any legally binding obligations. " (KMS 2015). KMS itself presents the argument that environmental problems are related to the security, economics, and human rights in the international world. This argument is a key factor in furthering the answer to the question of the UNFCC's significance. IGO's engage in monitoring human rights regimes and enforce compliance when states have committed violations of the standard. The United Nations especially have a core role in the international human rights regime, as defined by the KMS literature from the course, of defining and explaining what is a constitutionally protected right under the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948. The UNFCC as an off -branch of the UN has an extension to the process of the UN's human rights governance. By KMS's ability to present evidence that climate change is indeed a human rights issue, it introduces the idea that the lack of enforcement on climate change agreements fail to meet the UN's human rights standards.
KMS as well offers an analysis on the Kyoto Protocol, defining its process and negotiations under the UNFCC. There were challenges in bringing the top three carbon dioxide emitters to sign the agreement. China, India, and the United States did not sign the agreement, calling for failure of the Kyoto Protocol before 2012. Global peer pressure was what KMS argued as a contributing factor to the ratification of the agreement between the three countries and not the enforcement of the UNFCC. The literature presents a description of the Kyoto Protocol and the behavior of the countries involved. An analysis of the agreement in regards to climate change and the role of states contribution summarized in the literature presents evidence to the lack of enforcement from the UNFCC in preparation for their fight against climate change.
The questions of UNFCC's effectiveness in the climate change debate has been researched recently. From author Lukas Hermwille, he analyzed UNFCC effectiveness in regards to the 2015 Paris Agreement and their set expectations. He posed the question, UNFCCC before and after Paris - what's necessary for an effective climate regime? In his article, published in the second issue in Climate Policy conceptualizes how the UNFCC has a narrow focus on greenhouse gas emissions and perpetually hinders their ability towards climate protection. Instead, the literature argues the UNFCC should switch their structure into a more integrative approach where the organization itself produces and creates climate protection activities which will then expand their impact. He applies a structural regime model onto the UNFCC organization which provides a template of rules and norms associated with regimes in intergovernmental organizations and compares it to the UNFCC. Not only does he involve analytical findings in his research, but also provides policy recommendations towards the organization. "From our analysis we derive two main recommendations for an effective and structurally balanced treaty: First, multidimensional mitigation contributions going beyond emission targets could strongly improve countries' abilities to tailor their contributions around national political discourses. Second, the UNFCCC regime should be complemented with another treaty outside of the UNFCCC framework. This 'Alliance of the Ambitious' would allow the pioneers of climate protection to move ahead and enjoy the benefits of cooperation." (Hermwille 2017).
The literature published by Hermwille assists in dictating the answer to the question: Is the UNFCC's role in mitigating greenhouse gases through international agreements significant? by providing an in-depth analysis of the role associated with general intergovernmental organizations, comparing it to the UNFCC. It can give a distinction of the organization itself in contrast to other organizations that have enforceable agreements which provide sustainable policies. The recommendation Hermwille provides in the literature implicates the disparities in the organization itself. These disparities can further be analyzed to correlate their effect on agreements already set forth by the UNFCC, like the Paris Agreement and the Kyoto Protocol. The author provides his first recommendation as a critic in declaring the UNFCC does not go beyond analytics and does not integrate policies based on the political and economic standings of each member country. This provides the evidence of the lack of representation in the UNFCC, especially in transitional and underdeveloped countries who have difficulties mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Representation is a key factor of intergovernmental organizations, and the lack thereof provides a basis for deficiency in the organizations structure.
The hypothesis contributing to the question: Is the UNFCC's role in mitigating greenhouse gases through international agreements significant? rests on no, the UNFCC is not significant in their role of mitigating climate change through greenhouse gases referenced in international agreements. As evidenced by their lack of ability to create a sensible level of enforcement towards a member states greenhouse gas emission, their role defined by the United Nations as an entity tasked with supporting the global response to the threat of climate change, they have failed to show any significant strides in their formulation of goals. Through their creation and monitoring of the Kyoto Protocol, the lengthy arbitration and lack of ratification of the Paris Agreement, it is an indication of their insignificance as an entity with legitimacy.
The current agreements put in place give way to the above hypothesis to be a critical test. The Kyoto Protocol was scheduled to expire in 2012 but was put through multiple conferences since 2007 due to the top three contributors of greenhouse gas emissions unwanted ratification of the agreement. China, The United States, and India refused to cooperate with the plans involving the agreement, which was set to be extended after 2012, the date it was meant to expire. The treaty based regulatory approach of Kyoto did not work as anticipated and it was under the global peer pressure that motivated China, India, and The United States to sign the agreement in 2014, two years after its set expiry date. If it was under global peer pressure that motivated the three countries to act in accordance of their greenhouse gas emissions and not the UNFCC, this can set a precedence that the power withheld in the intergovernmental organization is less than that of member states. The Kyoto Protocol brought forth by the UNFCC can be argued as an illegitimate source of international treaty as there is no sudden motivation of member countries to engage in the restrictive emission implementation.
The role of the UNFCC is to mitigate and reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the global scale. "The UNFCCC's ultimate objective is to achieve the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system." (IUCN). The argument posed that the UNFCC is insignificant when it comes to their standing in international intergovernmental organization environment is enforced by the evidence of their inability to congregate top greenhouse gas emitters into their policy making decisions. When The United States, China, and India are not in accord with the agreements set forth by the UNFCC, then the main objective of the organization will not be successful due to the countries proportionate emissions of greenhouse gasses compared to other countries. This revisits the argument in which the organization lacks the legitimacy to coax members to be a part of their universal goal.
The Paris Agreement of 2015 is as well an influence to determining the significance of the UNFCC in international agreements to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris Agreement has seen its faults in regards to the ratification of the agreement in several signature countries. Over 197 countries signed the international agreement, yet multiple underdeveloped or transitional countries have ratified it. The UNFCC has no presence in the implementation of the agreement, nor can it monitor the countries abilities in creating sustainable policies to meet their carbon emission goals of 2030. The basis of the agreement is underneath a good faith ground. The emissions targets are non-binding meaning there are no repercussions as to whether or not the countries whom have adopted the consensus in emission reductions fail to meet their goals. The Paris Agreement has mandatory measures to monitor the disposal of greenhouse gasses yet has no mandatory policies countries must follow.
This brings to a second argument in which the UNFCC is not significant in regards to their presence in the mitigation and goal of reduction of greenhouse gases. Due to their inability to formulate consequences for the impotence of countries who disregard their goal in greenhouse reductions. "While the system doesn't include financial penalties, the requirements are aimed at making the progress of individual nations easy to track and fostering a sense of global peer pressure, discouraging any dragging of feet among countries that may consider doing so." (NRDC). The global peer pressure factor is an influential factor towards countries more so than the abilities of the UNFCC. The lack of consequences in the financial sector shows insignificance on the capacity of UNFCC in implementing treaties on the global scale.
Case Studies:
The three case studies published in which the analysis will be driven from are published by Oxford University Press and The American Chemical Society. Duncan Greene published a case study of the Paris Agreement in contrast to the successful Copenhagen conference. He analyzes the distinct changes which have occurred in relevance to today's international environment in order to make the Paris Agreement susceptible to accordance. Factors like The United States and China's disposition on cutting their carbon dioxide emissions, private sectors involvement in mitigating climate change, and the intersection of economics and technology are defined in the case study. The complexity of the Paris Agreement in contrast to the former international climate treaties provides ample analytics in which can define the UNFCC's difficulty in transgressing the agreement onto the global scale. The author as well provides the limits of the agreement's enforcement, "The Paris Agreement also provides ample room for foot dragging and bad faith, and it is yet to be seen whether the review and ratchet mechanism produces enough action to keep climate change within acceptable limits . " (Greene 2016). As the effect of the agreement have yet to be determined, the results will be defined by the willingness and preparation of member countries towards the ratification of the treaty.
Caroline Fehl, on the other hand analyzed a case study on the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change by citing treaty effectiveness in regards to the lack of The United States' support. "The perception that the US withdrawal violated norms of equity and appropriate diplomatic conduct additionally hardened the European resolve to rescue Kyoto, despite business concerns about potential competitive disadvantages." (Fehl 2011). A violation of norms and conduct resonates with the UNFCC's lack of ability to prompt member countries into beneficial collective action international agreements. The United State's cancellation of their partaking in the Kyoto Protocol is a measure of the UNFCC's deficiency in legitimacy in which a country with high levels of carbon output and consumption fails to be attentive to a global collective action problem. This gives way to the hypothesis in which the UNFCC is insignificant through not being able to persuade an influential country like the United States to meet their goals.
Authors Kathryn Willi, AR Ravishankara, Guus JM Velders, John S. Daniel, Mack McFarland, and Stephen O. Andersen published a case study on The Montreal Protocol depicting the immediate response to the ozone layer depletion by global actors. The analysis contains a successful interpretation of the results of the agreement and what would of occurred had climate IGO's not have interfered. This shows that without the immediate interference of certain organizations like UNEP, it would have resulted in an environmental catastrophe. UNEP's instantaneous response by developing and executing The Montreal Protocol is evidence of their sustainable presence in the climate change sector in comparison to the UNFCC. The willingness of countries, including The United States to implement and ratify policies in concordance to the protocol is indicative of the effect the UN, including UNEP, had on their approach to climate agreements in 1988.
Conclusion:
The future of developing and ratifying climate change agreements rests on the role and significance of the UNFCC. Determining their relevance through the use of three case studies over time and the opinion of the executive secretariat is paramount to testing the hypothesis of "no, the UNFCC is not significant in their role of mitigating climate change through greenhouse gases referenced in international agreements." Through the measure of the readiness for powerful member states to give their contribution, the level of consequences towards those not able to meet their reduction in emissions goal and the results of the agreements themselves, the research question of "Is the UNFCC's role in mitigating greenhouse gases through international agreements significant? " will be addressed. As the completely successful treaty with multiple levels of readiness and motivation towards the goals of regulating ODS, the Montreal protocol is a substantial basis on which climate change regulation is modeled. The comparisons between the Montreal protocol with the Paris Agreement and the Kyoto Protocol is a study to determine the significance in UNFCC's structure of implementation compared to that of UNEP and UNDP.
Author: Valentina Horlander
Acknowledgments:
- Fehl, Caroline. "Case Study: The Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change." Living with a Reluctant Hegemon: Explaining European Responses to US Unilateralism. : Oxford University Press, 24. Oxford Scholarship Online. Date Accessed 14 Dec. 2021 < https: //oxford.universitypress ... (2B)
- Precautionary Principle and the Environment: A Case Study of an Immediate Global Response to the Molina and Rowland Warning Kathryn Willi, AR Ravishankara, Guus JM Velders, John S. Daniel, Mack McFarland, and Stephen O. Andersen ACS Earth and Space Chemistry 2021 5 (11), 3036-3044 DOI: 10.1021 / acsearthspacechem.1c00244 (2B)
- Green, Duncan. "Case Study: The December 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change." How Change Happens. : Oxford University Press, 20. Oxford Scholarship Online. Date Accessed 14 Dec. 2021 < https: //oxford.universitypress ... (2B)
- Hermwille, Wolfgang Obergassel, Hermann E. Ott & Christiane Beuermann (2017) UNFCCC before and after Paris - what's necessary for an effective climate regime ?, Climate Policy, 17: 2, 150-170, DOI: 10.1080 / 14693062.2015.1115231 (2B)
- Karns, Margaret P., et al. International Organizations: The Politics and Processes of Global Governance. Lynne Rienner Publ., 2015.
- "United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)." IUCN, 6 Aug. 2018, https://www.iucn.org/theme/global-policy/our-work/united-nations-framework-convention-climate-change-unfccc . (1A)
- February 19, 2021 Melissa Denchak. "Paris Climate Agreement: Everything You Need To Know." NRDC, 26 Oct. 2021, https://www.nrdc.org/stories/paris-climate-agreement-everything-you-need-know . (2C)