Scope of the Problem:
The Islamic Republic of Iran faces a man-made climate crisis resulting in complications towards the transnational problem of refugees and internally displaced persons. Throughout time, five significant issues have arisen in the theocratic republic that have affected the national security in regards to economy, their people and society. The impact of water loss, land degradation, energy, air pollution and biodiversity loss are catalysts to the ever growing tensions and disputes between people living in the republic. The world's largest saltwater lake, Lake Uromiyeh, located in Urmia, Iran, has become a shell of its former self. With a main source of water drying up, agriculture in the area has become stagnant. Land degradation is the result of deforestation and desertification. Deforestation and desertification affect the biodiversity loss in the area. In Iran currently, about 100 species of vertebrate fauna are listed as endangered due to the increase of human activity affected by land use and water loss of major lakes. Desertification and deforestation as well, affect the agricultural output of cultivating towns. Many farming communities in Iran rely on their agricultural output to sustain their economy. Once their main source of sustenance can not be utilized, they in return, move to economically beneficial sectors of Iran. This leads to quarrels between ethnic groups already residing in such locations.
A key environmental issue not only facing the country of Iran, but also the international sector is their Carbon Dioxide output. In 2020, Iran's Carbon Dioxide emissions from consumption of energy estimated to about 638.8 million megatons, putting it at number ten in a country comparison to the rest of the world. (CIA 2019-2020). Their carbon dioxide emissions affect the increasing crisis of air pollution in the region. Iran is the 23rd country with the most polluted air in the world since 2020 and has 5.4x the fine particulate matter recommended by the World Health Organization. "This has to do with Iran's growing population - its rightful development aspirations - and its abundant natural gas and oil reserves. But it also has to do with fuel price subsidies that have set the price of energy far too low, "(UNDP 2014.) The declining air quality leads to fumes and haze enveloping the main cities in the country. The prolonged exposure to polluted air can result to chest infections, lung cancer and heart disease in those which are immune compromised and can cause increase in health expenditures in Iran's GDP. Infant mortality rate and life expectancy will be affected by such effects of environmental issues because of the declining health in Iran's society. A decrease in quality of life affects the rate at which people are able to work and contribute to the economy. A decrease in the labor force will result in an overall stagnation towards revenue which exerts influence on Iran's official GDP.
Current Approach:
Currently, The Islamic Republic of Iran has signed agreements such as Environmental Modification, Law of the Sea, Marine Life Conservation, and the Paris Agreement on climate change. Each of these major environmental agreements have been signed, yet have not been ratified. Iran was a party to the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty signed and ratified in 1997 intended to commit states in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. The Kyoto Protocol has since been extended due to member states not meeting their intended goal in 2012. Aside from the agreements signed which have yet to be implemented, Iran has not developed policies in regard to sustainable development. Although they currently have air pollution control programs and the Department of Environment, which has existed since 1971, the lack of policy development which has occurred in the country is due to the government’s value of short-term economic objectives outweighing environmental preservation.
The government in Iran attempted to implement a five year plan with the help of The World Bank "a) to strengthen the institutional capacity to monitor air and water quality, b) to build partnerships among ministries, universities, municipalities and civil societies, and c ) to strengthen training and public awareness on environmental issues, "(Calabrese 2008). The World Bank conducted a survey on the citizens of Tehran, including men and women, educated and uneducated, rich and poor to evaluate whether the citizens showed support in the formation of environmental policy. The support was underwhelming due to the citizen's lack of awareness in the changing air and water qualities. Only a small minority of those surveyed participated in or had knowledge of environmental groups. There is a large absence in environmental activism in the country of Iran, therefore the responses of the survey failed to push the plan forward.
The approach of signing treaties without ratification or implementation in Iran is lackluster due to not only the shortcomings of knowledge of climate change but also the immediate short-term economic plan which has taken precedence. Because of their rank in production in natural gas and oil reserves, their economic status is reliant on crude oil reserves. Authoritarian governments, like Iran, are more likely to withstand in their regime survival when they are considered oil dictatorships. With oil revenue, dictators have a financial advantage to discourage coups or threats with the allocation of rents, increase repression, and reduce their need for institutions. (Ghandhi & Przeworski, 2007). "The leader, acting rationally, will always choose the strategy that allows him to preserve his power at the lowest cost based on the severity of the political threat and the size of their financial resources, particularly oil wealth, "(Ishak 2019). The development of environmental policy will regulate Iran's crude oil exports and possibly hinder their GDP, therefore influencing the effect on their regime survival. Iran's economic status will take precedence over environmental policy because of their need for political control in the regime.
Due to the immediate problem facing Iran which provokes their reliance on oil and natural resources, environmental policy is not in the government's best interest. International organizations have proposed agreements, like the Paris Agreement, which motivate the decrease of carbon dioxide emissions from all member countries, including Iran. Due to Iran being the fourth largest fossil fuel producer, the harvest of oil accounted for 46.4% of their carbon emissions in 2008. (Boden & Andres 2012). "Emissions from gas fuels have grown 390-fold since the first reported natural gas use in 1955 and now account for 42.3% of Iran's total fossil-fuel CO2 emissions," (Boden & Andres 2012). For the country to implement an environmental policy, affecting the reduction of carbon emissions would mean an effect on their income and GDP. In order to fully implement environmental policy in Iran, governmental changes must take effect.
Acknowledgments:
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