Abstract
This publication represents the fourth of a cycle of analyses exploring the geopolitical consequences of Artificial intelligence (AI). AI continues to advance affecting our lives, the environment and shaping the geopolitical landscape in profound ways. This article will analyse the relationship between AI and International Relations, focusing on its effects on diplomacy and on the global shift of power. In this paper, AI will be analysed not only as a tool used to facilitate diplomatic relations, but also as a topic discussed in international affairs and as a factor that has the influence to shape the global shift of power.
Authors:
Gabriel Silini, Junior Researcher - Politics
Lorenzo Molina, Junior Researcher - Politics
Introduction
In the dynamic arena of international relations, the accelerating advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has become a pivotal force, reshaping diplomatic landscapes and influencing the global balance of power.
Over the last decade, AI has not only emerged as a practical tool facilitating diplomatic interactions but has also assumed a prominent role as a central topic in global discourse. Its effects on foreign policy, international security, and the broader power dynamics are the focal points of our analysis.
This exploration goes beyond viewing AI solely as a diplomatic instrument, considering it as a subject that steers policy agendas, encompassing economic, ethical, and human rights dimensions.
The examination unfolds with a scrutiny of the practical applications of AI in diplomacy, showcasing its role in crisis communication, consular affairs, and military power dynamics. The intricate balance between leveraging AI for efficiency and preserving human decision-making in critical moments emerges as a central theme.
A closer look at the Chinese foreign policy exemplifies AI's integration into decision-making processes, with the Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan setting ambitious goals for global leadership by 2030. Beyond individual nations, the article delves into the broader impact on the global shift of power, focusing on the collaborative and competitive dynamics between major players such as the United States and China.
Acknowledging the influence of non-great powers, the analysis extends to geopolitical swing states like the European Union (EU) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The EU's pioneering AI Act, set to become the world's first comprehensive legal framework for AI, and the UAE's ambitious AI strategy position these entities as significant players in shaping the global AI landscape.
AI And Diplomacy
The last 10 years have witnessed quite a significant number of advancements when it comes to artificial intelligence (AI). These developments have been accompanied by discussions about the possible social, economic, and security effects of AI. Nonetheless, it must be noted that the effects of AI on international relations and, especially, how the technology affects the work of national ministries, government officials, and politicians have not yet received consistent attention within the international organisations.
The term artificial intelligence (AI) was first used in 1956 by well-known American computer scientist McCarthy, who described it as "the science and engineering of making intelligent machines like the intelligent computer programmes." The development of deep learning and neural networks in the latter part of the 1990s aroused renewed interest in artificial intelligence (AI) and increased optimism about its potential application to a variety of fields, including diplomacy (Preethi, 2020).
Foreign policy and international security are considered to be the current hotspots when discussing the use and risks of AI in international politics. Technological developments in AI have raised new issues for discussion on the international scene, posed challenges to geostrategic relations, provided a useful instrument for diplomats and negotiators, and given rise to concerns regarding human rights (Diplo, 2023).
It is already clear that the multiple facets of contemporary AI and machine learning has a strong influence on how countries handle their foreign policy. China, for example, has already unveiled a toolkit for AI-related foreign policy along with its "New Generation Plan," which aims to position China as the global leader in AI by 2030 and has created a race to implement AI all around the globe. The United States, Canada, and Russia are only a few of the more nations that have demonstrated how the AI revolution has permeated their foreign ministries. AI, according to the Russian Kremlin, will decide the "rule of the world" in the future.
When it comes to international diplomacy, AI has also emerged as a key tool in many topics, particularly in relation to military power in areas like cyber-security, threat detection, and combat, as well as sectors like international security, the use of autonomous weapon systems, and agreement monitoring. Particularly important is the fact that predictive analysis could take over in the analysis of international relations in order to prevent conflicts and implement a peaceful resolution. However, to date, as already stressed, AI technology is not so advanced to detect and implement strategies to solve international crises.
Nonetheless, when it comes to the relationship between diplomacy and AI it is worth distinguishing AI as a diplomatic tool, AI as a diplomatic topic and, last but not least, AI as a factor that has the power to shape the environment in which diplomacy happens. As a diplomatic tool, the use of AI on the day-to-day tasks of negotiators and diplomats are analysed. AI, when analysed as a topic for diplomacy, is responsible for a specific policy agenda which encompasses economical and business topics, as well as human rights, democracy and ethics. Lastly, when AI is analysed as a factor that impacts the environment of diplomacy it has the potential to completely reshape the international order.
Among the many different uses of AI in diplomacy, a very practical example could be the capacity to provide descriptive analyses of an event in times of crisis to embassies and diplomats avoiding the language barriers, granting a real time communication. However, it must still be noticed that due to the high level of uncertainty of the decision-making process in times of crisis and the chances that something might be wrong or hacked, the integration of AI in this particular field is for now intended to work only if humans keep their decisional power over the process (Bjola, 2019).
Another example that is worth mentioning is the one of consular affairs. As consular affairs is an area composed mainly of routine operations, many countries are already successfully testing some automatisation in their processes with AI. To be specific, countries like Canada, Germany, Hungary and the Netherlands are already implementing AI in visa and migration procedures, including sensitive areas such as identity fraud detection (Márquez Lartigue, 2023).
The growing use of AI in foreign politics might also cause concerns, as there will be a time in which foreign politics will ideally be decided by AI, with only a mere supervision from humans. There are still a few weak spots when it comes to AI, for example, many researchers are worried that AI in some years could represent potential risks for humanity (Metz, 2023).
Current AIs such as ChatGPT do not possess common sense and would provide a deep analysis on how to destroy humanity if they were asked to. Moreover, as the cases of the industrial and information technology revolutions, AI carries with it a variety of benefits, but also drawbacks, as well as obstacles in replacing humans with robots, especially in the sphere of international relations and diplomacy.
Thus, today, using AI in diplomacy, might also endanger peace and cause wars whether its analyses of the context would consider war as the easiest and quickest way to reach an objective. It must be noted that these considerations are made analysing the AI known today, which is still a flawed system.
AI and the Chinese foreign policy
An important example of modern use of AI in diplomacy is, as already mentioned, the case of the Chinese foreign policy. According to politicians, academics, and bureaucrats in China, AI should be viewed as an assistant in their daily decision-making process, capable of providing input, suggestions, and recommendations in a matter of seconds.
The administration thinks that AI would allow diplomatic and international policy judgments which do not encompass human feeling. While it is worth mentioning that AI in China is not yet ready to replace human diplomats and government officials, it is undeniable that the government is rapidly moving towards this aim, especially with the Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan (Preethi, 2020).
The Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan is one of the programmes the Chinese government has started to support AI education. The purpose of this effort is to provide students with knowledge of AI to better fit the needs of the labour market. Specifically, the government is introducing AI courses and programmes into primary, secondary, and tertiary education. In order to provide practical AI research and training, the government has also promoted partnerships between academic institutions and the private sector (Wenning, 2023).
China's AI policy, which involves stepping up its research efforts through education and maintaining its competitiveness in the global market, has a strong impact on diplomatic relations and, consequently, on the global power structure. This might cause a change in the balance of power in the world and ratchet up rivalry among countries, particularly in terms of technology and the use of AI in vital areas like defence, the economy, and infrastructure.
AI and the global shift of power
After analysing the case of China and the possibility of altering the actual global power structure, it is worth taking into account how AI can alter the balance of power. The advent of AI has the potential to reshape the global power dynamics, raising concerns about a burgeoning arms race, notably between the United States and China, vying for supremacy in AI. Furthermore, there is a parallel apprehension of an imminent era marked by escalating international competition.
Emerging weapon systems like Lethal Autonomous Weapons System (LAWS) intensify anxieties about technological advancements fostering global instability and creating unilateral advantages for early technology developers. Moreover, there is a prevailing assumption that nations adept at capitalising on the impact of AI on business and the economy will secure a substantial early-mover advantage. In light of this, the role of diplomats becomes increasingly critical (Hone, 2019).
In such a context, AI can play a role in shaping narratives, conducting influence campaigns, and countering misinformation in the realm of information warfare. This assertion aligns with the growing recognition of AI's potential applications in the information domain, particularly in the context of modern conflicts and geopolitical struggles.
Escalating competition between the US and China, wars in Europe and the Middle East, and shifting global alliances have ushered in the most unstable geopolitical period since the Cold War. At the same time, we are experiencing what may be the most significant innovation since the internet: the rise of generative artificial intelligence which is capable of generating texts and images and marks a transformational moment that will influence the course of markets and alter the balance of power among nations. Increasingly capable machine intelligence will profoundly impact matters of growth, productivity, competition, national defence and human culture. In this swiftly evolving arena, corporate and political leaders alike are seeking to decipher the implications of this abrupt and powerful wave of innovation, exploring new opportunities and navigating new risks.
With the public release of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, the defining geopolitical and technological revolutions of our time collided. Over the last 20 years, “traditional AI” has become pervasive, powering advertising algorithms, content recommendations, and social-media targeting. But its power and influence were largely shrouded and embedded within applications. Now, generative AI is front-and-centre, with user interfaces that are commonplace, proficient, and clearly identifiable as machine-driven intelligence. While the technology’s future is uncertain, generative AI was nearly universally acknowledged as a paradigm-shifting innovation, not a fleeting trend or hype cycle. With widespread adoption and accelerating innovation, we have now entered a period we call the inter-AI years, when leaders in every sector are working to understand what generative AI will mean for them, and how they can take advantage of opportunities while mitigating risks. (Goldman Sachs, 2023).
In this scenario, geopolitical competition remains a constant, an ever-present force shaping the interactions among nations. Despite numerous disagreements on various fronts, the United States, China, and Russia find common ground in acknowledging the transformative potential of AI and its ability to reshape the global balance of power. In the contemporary geopolitical arena, these major rivals are strategically placing AI at the core of their national strategies. In 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin articulated the significance of AI, stating, "Artificial intelligence is the future not only of Russia but of all of mankind." (Gigova, 2017). Fast forward five years, and Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping underscored their commitment to focusing on national strategic needs, emphasising leading scientific and technological research to secure victory in crucial core technologies (Bloomberg News, 2022). Furthermore, in 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden succinctly encapsulated the profound implications of AI for humanity, noting, "We're going to see more technological change in the next 10 – maybe the next 5 years – than we've seen in the last 50 years… Artificial intelligence is accelerating that change." (Biden, 2023). These statements underscore the consensus among geopolitical powers that AI is a transformative force with far-reaching implications for the future.
In the current landscape, as previously anticipated, the United States and China stand out as AI superpowers. However, the trajectory of AI's future is not solely determined by these two nations. Indeed, the European Union is also making a major push to become a leader in AI, while Russia has been investing heavily in military applications of the technology (Krasadakis, 2023).
Although the United States and China stand as the foremost competitors in the field of AI, they are also pivotal collaborators in this domain. According to Stanford University's 2023 Artificial Intelligence Index Report, despite the escalating geopolitical competition, the collaboration on AI research between these two nations witnessed a fourfold increase from 2010 to 2021. However, it's noteworthy that the pace of collaboration has experienced a notable deceleration in recent years, and this trend is expected to persist. In an era where AI has become a critical domain, the collaboration, competition, and confrontation between the U.S. and China extend across economic, technological, political, and military realms. The complexities of this relationship underscore the multifaceted nature of their interactions in the AI landscape. While they vie for supremacy and strive for technological advancements independently, they also find common ground in certain collaborative efforts. This nuanced dynamic reflects the intertwined nature of global AI development, where cooperation and competition coexist, defining the landscape of progress and innovation in artificial intelligence.
Recently, a distinct category of geopolitical swing States has emerged. They are non-great powers possessing the capacity, agency, and an increasing willingness to assert themselves on the global stage, as for example the European Union and the United Arab Emirates. Many of these States wield the influence to significantly shape the course of AI development. This expanded perspective acknowledges the diverse and multifaceted global landscape, where a spectrum of countries plays a crucial role in defining the future trajectory of artificial intelligence. (Goldman Sachs, 2023).
Concerning the EU, in the early days of December, a landmark achievement was reached as the EU Commission, Parliament, and member countries came to an agreement on the AI Act, marking a long-anticipated reform hailed as "the world's first comprehensive legal framework for artificial intelligence." While the final text is still pending, there is a strong likelihood that this agreement will be ratified before the 2024 EU elections.
Despite the EU having fewer and smaller AI companies in comparison to the United States or China, the EU AI Act carries substantial commercial and geopolitical implications. Boasting a population of 450 million inhabitants, the EU stands as the largest demographic bloc in the West and a key global commercial player. The regulatory framework proposed in the AI Act has the potential not only to shape the development and adoption of AI within the EU but also to exert influence globally. The proposed text includes extraterritorial applications on both providers and users, suggesting that the regulatory measures outlined could extend beyond the EU's borders.While the EU may have inherent limitations in terms of AI leadership due to the size and scale of its AI companies, the AI Act positions the EU as a significant player in the global AI landscape. The implications reach far and wide, potentially impacting how AI is developed and adopted across the world. By incorporating extraterritorial applications, the AI Act asserts the ability to influence and regulate AI-related activities beyond its immediate jurisdiction. The regulatory standards set by the EU could become a benchmark for responsible and ethical AI development, potentially shaping the trajectory of AI governance globally (ibidem).
Regarding the United Arab Emirates, they launched an ambitious AI strategy, and Abu Dhabi appointed the world’s first minister of artificial intelligence in 2017. With a focus on rapid AI innovation, the UAE established AI training programs with Oxford University and founded the Mohammed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence. The UAE’s AI strategy has a different focus than its counterparts, with the goal to become “the world’s most prepared country for artificial intelligence.” The UAE may provide alternative AI ecosystems for non-great powers, and it will be a critical partner and arena of competition for the US and China.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has undertaken extensive preparations in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Notably, AI and cloud computing companies based in the UAE have actively recruited talent from various countries, including Israel, Indonesia, China, Singapore, and beyond. This recruitment drive is part of a substantial investment exceeding $10 billion dedicated to advancing artificial intelligence within the country. In the absence of a domestic semiconductor manufacturing industry, the UAE has strategically utilised its significant capital resources to acquire thousands of cutting-edge chips, with a particular focus on procurement from Western countries. This approach underscores the country's commitment to staying at the forefront of technological advancements, even in areas where domestic production capabilities might be lacking. The strategic investment in both human capital and technological infrastructure positions the UAE as a notable player in the global AI landscape, demonstrating its dedication to fostering innovation and excellence in artificial intelligence. (ibidem).
Conclusions
As countries in the twenty-first century advance in the AI revolution, the possibility for AI to actually shape the global order has to be taken into account. However, as stressed in this article, the current AIs do not possess the ability and complexity of fully replacing humans when it comes to diplomatic relations.
The examples provided in the paper analysed the different uses of AI in international relations, highlighting how multifaceted the topic currently is. Namely the case of Chinese foreign policy and the uses of AI in its daily tasks. China is currently one of the leaders when it comes to the development of AI and it is likely that this race could potentially change the order in the current international relations.
It is essential to note that AI’s significance extended beyond its potential role in future negotiations. The country that successfully creates an AI capable of replacing humans in diplomacy or any other field could potentially trigger a significant global power shift in the world order.
As AI becomes increasingly embedded in diplomatic processes, concerns about its potential impact on peace and stability surface. The evolving nature of AI, marked by both benefits and drawbacks, necessitates a nuanced understanding of its role in reshaping international relations. The geopolitical swing states, exemplified by the EU and the UAE, further contribute to this complexity, showcasing the diverse influences that non-great powers exert in the global AI landscape.
Looking ahead, the implications of AI on the global shift of power are undeniable. The United States, China, and other major players recognize AI's transformative potential, positioning it at the core of their national strategies. The collaborative efforts between the U.S. and China, despite escalating geopolitical competition, highlight the intertwined nature of AI development, where cooperation and competition coexist.
In conclusion, the interplay between AI and international relations represents a pivotal juncture in shaping the future geopolitical landscape. As AI continues to evolve, its influence on diplomacy, power dynamics, and global governance will remain a focal point of discussion, demanding ongoing scrutiny, international cooperation, and ethical considerations to navigate this transformative journey successfully.
Classification of sources and information:
1 | Confirmed | Confirmed by other independent sources; logical in itself; coherent with other information on the topic |
2 | Presumably true | Not confirmed; logical in itself; coherent with other information on the topic |
3 | Maybe true | Not confirmed; reasonably logical in itself; coherent with some other information on the topic |
4 | Uncertain | Not confirmed; possible but not logical in itself; no other information on the topic |
5 | Improbable | Not confirmed; not logical in itself; contradicts with other information on the topic |
6 | Not able to be evaluated | No basis to evaluate the validity of the information |
Trustworthiness of the source | ||
A | Trustworthy | No doubt about authenticity, reliability or competence; has a history of total trustworthiness |
B | Normally trustworthy | Small doubts about authenticity, reliability or competence, nevertheless has a history of valid information in a majority of cases |
C | Sufficiently trustworthy | Doubts about authenticity, reliability or competence; however, has supplied valid information in the past |
D | Normally not trustworthy | Significant doubt about authenticity, reliability or competence, however has supplied valid information in the past |
E | Not trustworthy | Lack of authenticity, reliability or competence; history of invalid information |
F | Not able to be evaluated | No basis to evaluate the validity of the information |
References
Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2023. Stanford University Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. 1A
Joe Biden, (2023). ‘Remarks by President Bieden on Artificial Intelligence1, The White House, Retrieved from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/07/21/remarks-by-president-biden-on-artificial-intelligence/ (Accessed: 20 January 2024). 1A
Conreliu Bjola, (2019) ‘Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence - Elcano Royal Institute’, Royal Institute elcano. Available at: https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/analyses/diplomacy-in-the-age-of-artificial-intelligence/ (Accessed: 20 January 2024). 1B
Bloomberg News, (2023). ‘China’s Xi Vows Victory in Tech Battle After US Chip Curbs’. Retrieved from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-16/china-s-xi-pledges-victory-in-tech-battle-after-us-chip-curbs (Accessed: 20 January 2024). 1B
Diplo, (2023) AI DIPLOMACY: geo-politics, topics and tools in 2023. Available at: https://www.diplomacy.edu/topics/ai-and-diplomacy/ (Accessed: 20 January 2024). 2B
Goldman Sachs, (2023). ‘The generative world order: AI, geopolitics, and power”. Retrieved from: https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/:~:text=The%20emergence%20of%20generative%20AI,national%20defense%20and%20human%20culture (Accessed: 20 January 2024). 1B
Radina Gigova, (2017). ‘Who Vladimir Putin thinks will rule the world’. Retrieved from: https://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/01/world/putin-artificial-intelligence-will-rule-world/index.html (Accessed: 20 January 2024). 1A
Katharina E. Höne et al., (2019). ‘Mapping the challenges and opportunities of artificial intelligence for the conduct of diplomacy’. DiploFoundation. 1A
George Krasadakis, (2023), ‘How is AI Changing the Global, Geopolitical System?’, Medium. Retrieved from: https://medium.com/60-leaders/how-is-ai-changing-the-global-geopolitical-system-528e8ac29c1f (Accessed: 20 January 2024). 2B
Rodrigo Márquez Lartigue, (2023) ‘Diplomacy 4.0: How Artificial Intelligence is Changing Diplomacy?’, Consular Diplomacy. Available at: https://www.consulardiplomacy.com/home/diplomacy-40-how-artificial-intelligence-is-changing-diplomacy (Accessed: 20 January 2024). 2A
Cade Metz, (2023) ‘How Could AI Destroy Humanity?’, New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/10/technology/ai-humanity.html (Accessed: 20 January 2024). 1A
Amaresh Preethi, (2020) Artificial Intelligence: A New driving horse in International Relations and Diplomacy, Diplomatist. Available at: https://diplomatist.com/2020/05/13/artificial-intelligence-a-new-driving-horse-in-international-relations-and-diplomacy/ (Accessed: 19 December 2023). 1B
Sebastian Wenning, (2023) ‘What Influence Does the AI Strategy Have on Possible Outcomes of Chinese Foreign Policy and Economic Development?’, Article in Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal. doi: 10.14738/assrj.104.14416. 1A
Riproduzione Riservata ®