Abstract
This analysis focuses on what is considered to be the world's longest-running unresolved international dispute: the Kashmir and Jammu's one. It started with the partition of British India and since then moments of war and skirmishes alternated with unsuccessful attempts at resolution and cooperation. The region represents an important link between South and Central Asia, making it of interest in terms of infrastructure for transportation. The number of natural resources present in the area adds up to the reasons for the ongoing dispute, with India and Pakistan being the two major actors involved. Starting with an introduction to the situation and an historical overview, the paper will analyze what drives the conflict to this day and the multifaceted character of it. Emphasis will be put on the revocation of Article 370 of the Indian constitution, a decisive change for Indian-administered Kashmir. Mediation attempts and proposals for resolution will be examined together with their limited practicability and the reasons behind that. It is found that, while agreement between India and Pakistan is essential, it remains difficult to achieve due to incompatible objectives and interest, thus giving the international community the difficult task of balancing pressure for peaceful dialogues and humanitarian actions to help the civilians caught in this violent dispute.
1. The dispute
Formerly one of India's largest princely states, Jammu and Kashmir are bordered to the east by Pakistan, to the southwest by Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, to the northwest by the region of Kashmir that is administered by Pakistan, and to the south by the Indian union territory of Ladakh. The residents of the Jammu region are Muslim in the west and Hindu in the east, speaking Hindi, Punjabi, and Dogri, while most of the people who live in Pakistan's and Kashmir's Vale are Muslims who speak Urdu and Kashmiri.
Source: Erin Blakemore, 2019, The Kashmir conflict: How did it start?, National Geographic
The Kashmir dispute is the world's longest-running unresolved international issue. Kashmir is seen as Pakistan's primary political disagreement with India. The conflict was primarily sparked by India's conquest of the State of Jammu and Kashmir in 1947. On October 26, 1947, India and the Maharaja (the local ruler) of Kashmir signed the Instrument of Accession, a document in which the Maharaja secured Indian military assistance in fighting a popular uprising in exchange for accession to India. The document has been contested in the past by the people of Pakistan and Kashmir who reject the Indian claim on the region. India currently holds around 55% of the original territory of Kashmir, followed by Pakistan with 30% and China with 15% of the overall area.
Given that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers and that this confrontation poses a threat to worldwide security, the conflict has attracted a great deal of interest from the world.
2. Historical Context
The Kashmir conflict is a territorial dispute over the Kashmir region, primarily between India and Pakistan, but also between China and India in the northeastern portion of the region. The conflict started after the partition of British India in 1947 as both India and Pakistan claimed the entirety of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. In 1948 India and Pakistan went to war over Kashmir, but through a UN resolution a ceasefire was possible and since then the U.N. Military Observer Group on India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) has been keeping an eye on the cease-fire line. The UN's resolution was calling for a plebiscite to be held in Kashmir to determine its future, however it has been denied by India which in turns claim that it is unnecessary since Kashmiris have voted in national elections in India (Human Rights Watch, 1999). Following the Chinese invasion of the Ladakh – North Eastern area – in 1962, tensions between the two nations grew and after an attempt from Pakistani forces to infiltrate Indian-administered Kashmir a second war broke out in 1965. A deal to terminate the war was mediated by the Soviet Union with the Tashkent Declaration, according to which both states would resign from their position, work to build solid relationships based on the UN Charter and resolve all of their differences amicably. However, this declaration did not resolve the dispute and India and Pakistan fought a brief battle over East Pakistan in 1971, with Indian forces assisting the region's independence. With the 1972 Simla Agreement, India and Pakistan attempted to usher in a new era of bilateral ties by establishing the Line of Control (LOC), a temporary military control line that divided Kashmir into two administrative zones. But as both regimes produced nuclear weapons in the ensuing decades the conflict assumed a new dimension.
3. Reasons behind the conflict
The importance of Kashmir in terms of national security, geography, and resources is the main cause of this dispute between the two countries. Kashmir is traversed by the Indus River, which is quite significant. The Indus River is essential to Pakistani agriculture. It is particularly crucial in the lower Indus valley, where rainfall is infrequent. In a similar way, irrigation in India relies on the Indus. The Indus and its branches are hence in great demand. The country that successfully controls this area can stop the other country's access to water. The rivers and other bodies of water in Kashmir have the capacity to produce enormous amounts of hydroelectricity, thus for the majority of its energy needs, the state of Jammu and Kashmir relies on hydroelectricity. A wide variety of resources, including uranium, gold, oil, and natural gas, are also found in the area.
The regions are also crucial from a geopolitical perspective as well. Kashmir serves as a bridge between South and Central Asia and it is the sole straight route from India to Central Asia and from there to Europe. Moreover, it is a key pathway for the Belt and Road Initiative and for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – a significant bilateral initiative that includes building Pakistani infrastructure, connecting China and Pakistan's transportation systems, and developing a number of energy projects.
The disagreement has also been fueled by religious and cultural factors, with active and violent extremists on both sides.
4. Militant Groups and Emergence of the Conflict
Disillusioned with the lack of progress through the democratic process, militant organizations began to pop up in the region in the late 1980s. The major militant organizations were divided between those advocating an independent Kashmir and those supporting accession to Pakistan. The Harakat ul-Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Lashkar-e-Taiba are the three Islamist organizations which are active in Kashmir and are listed as foreign terrorist organizations by the U.S. State Department (Jamal Afridi, 2009). Veterans who fought against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s have joined all three groups, as have individuals from Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Arab world. Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's top intelligence agency, has long been charged by India with equipping, training, and supporting logistically militants in Kashmir. However, some scholars think that with the growth of militancy within Pakistan, the relationship between the Pakistani military and some Kashmiri organizations has changed. The ISI "has certainly lost control" of the militant groups in Kashmir, according to Shuja Nawaz, author of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within.
A growing resistance movement in Indian-administered Kashmir renewed tensions in 1989, sparking the start of decades of intercommunal violence. Although the LOC was recommitted to in 1999, Pakistani forces crossed it later that year, starting the Kargil War. Whilst there has been a cease-fire between the two nations since 2003, it has revealed itself as an extremely precarious one since they still frequently exchange fire across the contentious border. Both sides assert that they are shooting in retaliation for attacks while each side accuses the other of breaking the cease-fire.
There were expectations that India's then newly elected Prime Minister Modi's administration would engage in substantive peace talks with Pakistan after inviting Nawaz Sharif to his inauguration in 2014. After a brief period of hope, relations deteriorated once more in August 2014 when India called off talks with Pakistan's foreign minister following a meeting between Kashmiri separatist leaders and the Pakistani high commissioner in India. Since then, violence continues to plague the region, causing human rights violations.
In 2018 the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) published the first-ever report on human rights in Kashmir. The 49-page report by the OHCHR lists human rights violations in both Indian and Pakistan-held sections of Kashmir, but emphasizes that those in Pakistan Kashmir are of a "different caliber or magnitude." The report focuses on abuses in India after July 2016, when violent protests erupted in response to the death of a militant commander by government troops. The government immediately rejected the study, labeling it "fallacious, tendentious, and motivated" (Human Rights Watch, 2018). A second report followed a devastating February 2019 attack in Kashmir by the terrorist organization Jaish-e-Mohammad on a security forces convoy, killing 40 Indian soldiers. Conflict-related deaths were the most in 2018 since 2008, with 586 persons murdered, including 267 members of armed groups, 159 security forces personnel, and 160 civilians.
5. Current Challenges
The current state of affairs in Kashmir is marked by shifting dynamics and ongoing tensions in the region. In August 2019, the Indian government – led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi – revoked Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which had granted the region limited autonomy for more than 70 years. The article allowed Indian-administered Kashmir to have its own constitution, flag, and two-house legislature with the capacity to pass its own laws. As a result of these changes the country's sole Muslim-majority territory was reorganized from a state into two centrally ruled union territories: Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, the latter partly claimed by China (Al Jazeera, 2023). In the days leading up to the presidential decree, telephone networks and the internet were cut off in the region. Tens of thousands of military personnel were deployed, and public meetings were prohibited. Tourists were advised to flee Kashmir due to a terror danger. Two former Jammu and Kashmir chief ministers have been placed under house arrest (BBC, 2019). The government stated that its measures would stop militancy in India's sole Muslim-majority province while also ensuring its economic prosperity. However, Kashmiris are becoming increasingly estranged from the Indian state, with an increasing number of youth joining rebel groups (International Crisis Group, 2022). Meanwhile, the Modi government has avoided engaging with the Kashmiri political class, though it did free many of those who had been held for months following the reforms. New Delhi also made property and jobs available to individuals from all around India, while also offering citizenship and voting rights to thousands of Hindu exiles. The move sparked anti-India rallies, and New Delhi responded by declaring martial law, detaining protestors, and cutting off communication.
Currently, protests against India, stone pelting, and regular shutdowns have subsided. In February 2021, New Delhi earned a significant security boost when Islamabad renewed the 2003 cease-fire agreement along the Line of Control. It resulted in a significant decrease in insurgent infiltration from Pakistan-administered Kashmir. However, according to The Wire, there is deep resentment at the denial of people's dignity, the pervasive sense of being humiliated, the denial of democracy and human rights, and solutions being imposed on them without consultation, whether it is large issues like Articles 370 or quotidian issues like land expropriation for large highway-building projects (Mani Shankar Aiyar, 2023).
6. International Involvement and Mediation Efforts:
Overall, various attempts have been made by the international community to resolve the Kashmir and Jammu dispute, including the establishment of the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP), mediation efforts by the United States, and agreements between India and Pakistan. However, the involvement of external actors, a lack of agreement on the definition of the problem, and the fragmentation of the peoples of the state of Jammu and Kashmir have complicated efforts to resolve the conflict.
The United Nations has been involved in the Kashmir dispute since 1948, with the establishment of the UNCIP to investigate the issues and mediate between the two new countries. The UN Security Council passed several resolutions concerning the Kashmir conflict and the United States has offered several times to facilitate a mediation process over the contested territory.
Numerous initiatives to promote peace have been made, including the Simla Accord and the Tashkent Declaration. The absence of political will on the parts of both Pakistan and India was the most significant factor for the unsuccessful nature of these. It has been seen that governments use stalling strategies during scheduled consultations or don't give the issue enough priority. The problem will continue to be ignored, as it has been up until now, until the governments are willing to take action.
7. Potential Solutions and the Way Forward:
There have been various potential solutions proposed over the years to resolve the Kashmir and Jammu dispute.
7.1 Acceptance of the current Line of Control
One of the suggested solutions is the acceptance of the existing Line of Control as the northernmost international border between India and Pakistan. This solution is feasible as it recognizes the current reality of the situation and the de facto border between India and Pakistan. It would result in the formalization of the current Line of Control, which could lead to a reduction in tensions between the two countries. However, it would also mean that the people of Kashmir would not have a say in their future, and the human rights abuses in the region could continue.
7.2 Kashmir political independence
Of all the alternatives being presented as a solution to this issue, independence for Kashmir is the most recent. Proposals for Kashmiri independence from India and Pakistan have nearly entirely come from the people of Kashmir. Nevertheless, while extremely popular in some sections of Kashmir, it lacks an absolute majority of support throughout the territory and provides little motivation for India or Pakistan to accept it.
7.3 Kashmir's provincial autonomy
Another point made is that Kashmir's provincial autonomy and the human rights of its people should be supported. Kashmiris, like Indians in every other state in the union, must be allowed to choose their own leaders in free and fair elections. This approach is reasonable as it recognizes the need for the people of Kashmir to have a say in their future and for their human rights to be protected. It would require India to commit to supporting Kashmir's provincial autonomy and the human rights of its people, which could lead to decreasing hostilities. The proposal for either joint or separate autonomy for Kashmir, while by far the most realistic and agreeable of all, fails to account for India's lack of desire to grant autonomy to Kashmiris living under its administration or for Pakistan to withdraw its troops from the LOC (Nikolis Kurr , 2015).
7.4 Freedom of mobility across the Line of Control
Mobility across the Line of Control dividing Kashmir could be the first step toward restoring trust between the actors involved. This strategy recognizes the need for increased communication and interaction between the people of Kashmir on both sides of the Line of Control. It could lead to increased trust and confidence-building measures between India and Pakistan. However, it would not address the underlying issues of the dispute, and the human rights abuses in the region could continue.
Overall, finding a sustainable solution to the ongoing Kashmir and Jammu dispute is urgent due to the significant human, economic, and political costs of the conflict. The involvement of external actors, the lack of agreement on the definition of the problem, and the fragmentation of the peoples of the state of Jammu and Kashmir have complicated efforts to resolve the conflict. Successful solutions require the parties involved to be prepared to pay higher costs, forego opportunities to de-escalate, and ultimately, accept the outcome of the solution.
Conclusion
More than seventy years of conflict has characterized the regions of Kashmir and Jammu, with two nuclear powers – India and Pakistan – involved. The threat should be actively confronted by the international community, but it has a multifaceted and complex nature that makes it difficult to find feasible solutions. The call for humanitarian actions is strong, even now that the actions of the terrorist groups, ones more proactive, seems to have de-escalated. The people of Kashmir and Jammu are still facing not only violence, but also economic difficulties and lack of representation. Despite the ongoing involvement of the UN and the proposals made by scholars to reach a peaceful agreement, together with protests from the inhabitants, the actors involved were not able to find a common ground due to divergent interests and desired outcomes. The cooperation between the relevant stakeholders is what is needed, but until their willingness to prioritize dialogue over violence is found, maybe with the international community push, it will be difficult for the people of Jammu and Kashmir to find peace and stability.
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