European aid for Ukraine: a flicker of hope, after months of tough negotiations

Translated by Valeria D’Alessandro

“In the next few days we should be able to sign an agreement about a supplementation of 5 billion euros from the European Peace Facility (EPF) in order to establish, within its facility, a dedicated ‘Aid fund for Ukraine’ based on a new approach to boost military support from the Eu member states to Ukraine” these are the words of Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, following the collaborative efforts made with EU’s foreign ministers[1].

This important announcement reflects an attempt to overcome the impasse created by divergent positions among some Member Countries regarding future aids to Ukraine. Notably, it addresses the stance of Victor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, who has repeatedly expressed his aversion to additional economic and military assistance.

This new aid plan differs from the previous ones for the attempt to promote a strategy that could be potentially working over the medium term, aiming at giving Ukraine a more structured support, in the space of the next 4 years.

Indeed, as anticipated by Borell, it not only involves a special assistance tool within the EPF, that should already guarantee the delivery of first tranche of 6,5 billion; but also involves the planning of additional allocations between 2024 and 2027, totaling approximately 5 billion per year[2].

The underlying concept of this operation is to facilitate the coordinated and combined funding of purchases by European countries. This would involve providing refunds to the member countries, streamlining the acquisition of war materials for various European nations, thus ensuring both their individual requirements and internal balances are maintained. The approach aims to involve numerous European companies and to promptly address Ukraine's material needs[3].

Moreover, it is crystal clear that, among various objectives, the primary aim of this proposal is to prevent another veto from Hungary, similar to what occurred last December with the first proposal regarding Ukraine’s military aid. The previous proposal included a total allocation of 50 billion, with 33 as loans and 17 as subsidies.

A solution that, practically, even if different, may not be sufficient to convince Orban and his government. Orban, reluctant to proceed with the approval of a multiannual plan, would prefer to continue planning and approving the aid on a yearly basis. This mechanism would further weaken Ukraine and leave the country at the mercy of the EU’s political internal choices.

However, there is one more problem linked to this last issue: the problem related to the total unblocking of the Funds that have been frozen to Hungary. In the negotiation process, the openness demonstrated by the EU institutions was not reciprocated by any tangible openness from Budapest. This lack of reciprocity escalated tensions to the maximum between the country and the Commission, to the point where the Commission may effectively contemplate invoking the so-called “nuclear option”.

This is nothing more than the procedure provided for in Article 7 of the EU Treaty, which allows the temporary suspension of certain rights, including the right to vote in the Council.

It's a thorny solution that, in its attempt to support the fulfillment of a purpose, might risk opening some cracks on the already fragile European stage.

Mondo Internazionale APS - Riproduzione Riservata ® 2023