Translated by Alessandra Fumagalli
Middle East is living a moment of gradual transition politically-strategically. While the Western influence is gradually decreasing, some local stakeholders promote a multi vectorial foreign policy and try to rise up to global players of increasing importance. Difficulties aren’t missing, so as the strategical divergences which could undermine the new path taken by the regional powers.
Let’s analyze which are the recent developments of some main regional players.
A new Middle East: among ambition and uncertainties
The gradual loss of the West’s influence is increasingly visible. The summer conflict between Israel and the Islamic Jihad has ended thanks to the Egyptian mediation efforts, the last Islamic State’s leader has been neutralized from the special forces of Ankara and the recent thawing between Teheran and Riad is a Pekin’s diplomatic success. Moreover, in August during the latest BRICS’s meeting, a new round of broadening by the organization has been officially opened. Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Egypt have been invited to join the multilateral organization. Abu Dhabi has already accepted, while the two other Arabic countries are still evaluating the hypothesis. The eclectic strategy of the Washington’s Arabic partners is deepening, they are increasingly desirous of diversifying their economic and diplomatic relationships. Despite these changes, the region has experienced a partial pacification and a decreasing violence. Some dossiers still remain open.
The recent diplomatic thawing between the Saudi royal house and the Islamic Republic has allowed the transition from an established rivalry to an attempt to the dialogue. For Riad the relation with two of the main Teheran’s proxies still remains problematic: Lebanese Hezbollah and Houthi Yemeni rebels. Although the Lebanese Shiite Party has limited its rhetoric against the Saudi, it still remains an actor ready to the twisting of the status quo and with a revolutionary agenda. Its leader, Nasrallah, has always been among the most critical voices of the Saudi intervention in the Yemenite conflict and he is the main supporter of the Palestinian Islamist factions. Hezbollah is among the main opponents of a possible recognition of Israel by the Saudi Reign, an hypothesis which still remains far away from the effective materialization. Moreover, despite the new negotiation rounds between Saudi and Houthi, which have been promoted by Oman, it still seems uncertain the resolution of the Yemenite conflict. Riad negotiates with the rebels without involving the internationally recognized government. The Houthi, that controls the North of the country, makes requests, which could be, in a second moment, counter-productive for the pacification. It can not be excluded also that, after a possible pact with Riad, the Shiite faction gets back to the operation against the Yemenite, among which there is the Southern Transitional Council, that similarly could definitely look for the independence.
To make the political strategical regional panorama even more complex, there are the increasing divergences between the Abu Dhabi and Riad’s agendas. For example, from the outbreak of the civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces led by the general Abdel Fatah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), the two Arabic powers are no longer aligned as they were previously. Riad tried to maintain an equidistant position between the belligerent parts, being also a promoter of the diplomatic solution, while the Emirates have supported Hemdeti, supported also by the Wagner, the Russian mercenary group, of which protects the gold mines too. Egypt could also consider an intervention in Sudan necessary, near by the side of al-Burhan, an action that could cause new friction between Cairo and the United Arab Emirates.
Consulted sources for this article:
Mark Leonarda, The Post-American Middle East, ECFR, 19 June 2023 https://ecfr.eu/article/the-post-american-middle-east/
Narayanappa Janardhan e Mohammed Baharoon, UAE in BRICS Expansion Amplifies Multialignment Trend, AGSIW, 5 September 2023 https://agsiw.org/uae-in-brics-expansion-amplifies-multialignment-trend/
Giorgio Cafiero, Will Iranian-Saudi détente bring Hezbollah closer to the Kingdom?, Amwaj.media, 7 September 2023 https://amwaj.media/article/will-iranian-saudi-detente-bring-hezbollah-closer-to-the-kingdom
Giorgio Cafiero, In Sudan, a Saudi Arabia-UAE rivalry intensifies, The New Arab, 25 August 2023 https://www.newarab.com/analysis/sudan-saudi-arabia-uae-rivalry-intensifies
Mondo Internazionale APS - Riproduzione Riservata ® 2023
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L'Autore
Michele Magistretti
Tag
BRICS Changing