Introduction. On 28th January, the military juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger announced their exit from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas, in French Cédéao), which brought together 15 countries from Cape Verde to Nigeria. The three withdrawing countries are led by transitional military governments that accused Ecowas of “being under the influence of foreign powers” and “having betrayed the ideals of its founding fathers and the spirit of pan-Africanism”.
While from a legal point of view the withdrawal from the founding treaty of Ecowas, signed in Lagos, will enter into force no sooner than next year, the political consequences of this decision cannot be ignored. In order to try and foresee the potential future scenarios that will follow the withdrawal, it is important to better understand the role of the parties in the dispute and the reasons that led to it.
ECOWAS was formed in 1975 to “promote economic integration” in member states and is considered to be the most successful model of regional governance in Africa, according to Mr. Ebenezer Badare and Mrs. Reina Patel, analysts of the Council on Foreign Relations. In particular, over the last thirty years, ECOWAS has contributed to the significant growth of the share of regional trade and it currently represents more than 400 million people “in all fields of economic activity, particularly industry, transport, telecommunications, energy, agriculture, natural resources, commerce, monetary and financial questions, social and cultural matters”, as stated by the Constitutive Act of the African Union.
The Sahel region has been shaken by a long series of coups, starting three years ago, that brought military juntas to power in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Guinea. ECOWAS, as well as Western powers, have condemned and sanctioned the member countries affected by the coups. Also, as soon as it acknowledged the difficulty of getting the various countries’ military leaders to commit to reinstating civilian governments, ECOWAS even considered the possibility of a military intervention in Niger in order to resettle the deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum. As a form of retaliation, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger formed the mutual defense pact named “Alliance of Sahel States” in September 2023 and often threatened to withdraw from ECOWAS.
What external actors are advantaged by this event?
The isolation of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, which also happened to be among the organization’s founding members, cannot be considered a wise choice, as it has weakened the regional military bloc against armed rebels and terroristic groups, which can be now considered among the most likely beneficiaries of the fracture.
Indeed, among the reasons the led to the coups in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso the deteriorating security situation figures – which is especially linked to the growing presence of terroristic groups, such as al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, the Islamic State of West African Province (ISWAP), and the attacks launched on civilians. This should have led ECOWAS to act more carefully, not to leave a potential breeding ground, always ready to explode, in the heart of the region and to avoid a step backwards in terms of regional integration.
In second place, Russia stands as another potential beneficiary. Indeed, Moscow has been forming military ties with the countries affected by the coups, which Russia is considered directly or indirectly responsible for. After the coups, ECOWAS threatened to use force to reinstate the previous regimes, the EU imposed sanctions and the US reduced its military and economic cooperation, only Russia presented itself as a reliable ally. Moscow’s presence on the continent and, especially, in the Sahel region dates back to many years and has been guaranteed by the Moscow-backed private security Wagner group - whose operations in Africa were renamed Africa Corps at the beginning of 2024 - and that, according to Le Monde, “has been building an empire (on the continent) since 2018”.
From a diplomatic point of view, such a tightened web of relationships with the African continent aims to guarantee Moscow increasingly wide support “for its vision of a multipolar world order based on weakened Western influence”, according to Mrs. Mariel Ferragamo, writer for the Council on Foreign Relations.
Consequently, the division within Ecowas could represent a valuable opportunity for Russia to weaken an organization that has always been considered pro-Western. Furthermore, it will give Moscow the chance to strengthen its position in the international diplomatic forums and by doing so, oppose the portrayed western image of Russia being an international pariah.