Ecuador, the situation two weeks before elections’ second round

  Articoli (Articles)
  Alessandro Dowlatshahi
  29 September 2023
  5 minutes, 39 seconds

“Muerte cruzada” and early elections

Next 15th October presidential elections’ second round is taking place in Ecuador. The first round was n 20th August, a lot before the usual end of the Presidential mandate. The reason for the early call is “muerte cruzada” decided by President Guillermo Lasso, constitutional mechanism he used to block his impeachment – possible conviction for public funds embezzlement – and close Chambers before time.

At first round parties run that represented many political ideas. The left united around Luisa González, di Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana’s leader. The right split in four names, Otto Sonnenholzner, Xavier Hervas, Daniel Noboa Azin and Jan Topić, each with its ideology and vision, while the main party, Movimiento Construye, chose journalist Christian Zurita to close the gap caused by journalist and activist Fernando Villavicencio murder, on the 9th August after an election meeting in Quito. Investigators suspected the murder was sent by narco groups, criminals Villavicencio had been fighting on paper.

Political victims

    Villavicencio was not the only case. Other two murders stained the election campaign period in the Country. The first is Pedro Briones, part of Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana, killed on the 14th August in his house, the second was a a candidate in the list of conservator Otto Sonnenholzner, Rider Sánchez Valencia, killed on the 16th August. Investigations lead to Ecuadorian organized criminal groups, entities that have been growing their power against the state.

    According to data by National Police and National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC), since 2020, murders have more than doubled in Ecuador, reaching more than 3,500 victims in 2022. A few days before elections, these murders have brought panic in the Country, generating a deep distrust in institutions in the Country. A recent pool calculated 87% of people are unsatisfied with democracy in Ecuador. The government reaction, though, was not silent: declaring emergency state for 60 days since 10th August, Guillermo Lasso gave a strong sign to the citizens, showing the willingness to tackle social insecurity.

    Votes' results

    The ballot box result on the 20th August lead to no definitive winner, as absolute majority of voters was not reached (50%, or at least 40% with a margin of at least 10 points). So the second round is mid-October. The challengers will be the two who obtained most votes in August, i.e. Luisa González from Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana (33%) and Daniel Noboa Azin from Acción Democrática Nacional (24%). Centrist Christian Zurita was excluded, having gained only 16% of votes.

    According to pools, Luisa González’s victory was very probable. At the base of these expectations was the strong vicinity – very felt by electorate but always denied by the candidate - of the candidate to controversial former president Rafael Correa, beloved by many social classed for his fight to social inequalities in his decade (2007-2017), then fell into disgrace for a corruption scandal in 2020.

    Daniel Noboa Azin’s second place was less expected: beside the little political experience, the 35-year old from Guayaquil earned the respect of many in the country with a speech the week before elections, where he declared himself in favor of economic liberalism and committed to change politics in the country, deleting bipolarism between “correists” and “anti-correists” with a center-correist proposal.

    What awaits at second round

    In the time between first and second election round, exit pools have been elaborated. According to some, Daniel Noboa Azin would be the new favourite. Estimations give Acción Democrática Nacional’s candidate at 55.16%, while Luisa González at 44.84%. Election campaigns will play a decisive role: Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) declared the start in the day of Sunday 24th September and imposed election silence from 12th October. These days lists will have to renew voters’ trust and attract undecided and disillusioned.

    In particular, 13 million Ecuadorians will watch Sunday 1st October’s television debate, where challengers will prompt their proposals regarding economy, society and safety. Due to the recent bloody cases and political instability, votes on the 15th October will be a crucial time for Ecuador. People feel it, to the point that, as Álvaro Marchante from Comunicaliza data analysis firm, stated, interest and active participation in presidential elections are relatively high. General indecisiveness will stop at around 12.3%, while blank votes will not surpass 9,5%.

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    L'Autore

    Alessandro Dowlatshahi

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    South America

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