Framing The World, CIV Edition

Framing The World, CIV Edition

In the new issue of FtW we analyze the new agreement within the framework of AUKUS which allows the USA, UK and Australia to gain influence in the Pacific. Next we describe the Criminal Court arrest warrant of President Putin for war crimes and crimes against humanity. Finally, we deal with the Turkish approval of Finland's entry into NATO. All this and more in the 104th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Iran, Amnesty denounces torture and violence on child detainees. On 16 March, six months after Mahsa Amini's death in custody, Amnesty revealed that Iranian security and intelligence forces subjected child detainees, as young as 12 years old, to flogging, electric shocks and sexual violence in order to extract forced 'confessions'. Contrary to international standards, many children were detained together with adults. Those released, however, were forced to sign 'repentance' letters and threatened with the arrest of their relatives if they complained. Diana Eltahawy, Amnesty International's deputy regional director for the Middle East and North Africa, strongly condemned such practices and called on “all states to exercise universal jurisdiction over Iranian officials, including those with command or superior responsibility, given the impossibility of conducting “effective impartial investigations into the torture of children domestically”.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Italy, Milan to stop registering children of same sex couples. The Ministry of the Interior has instructed Milan’s city council to stop registering children of same-sex parents. This is the first measure in the field of civil rights taken by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. From now on, children born through surrogacy or assistive reproduction abroad will not be recognized as children of same-sex couples. This measure will not affect minors born to two mothers abroad, as this situation is protected by a judgment of the Italian Cassation Court. This measure leads to a double discrimination: against minors that will be excluded from civil, social and patrimonial rights arising from having two parents, and against non-official parents who will have to face a series of denied rights in case of divorce.

(Chiara Giovannoni)

Poland, activist Justyna Wydrzynska has been condemned for facilitating abortion. Justyna Wydrzynska has been sentenced to eight months of community service in the first European trial for facilitating abortion. The Polish activist, who risked three years of prison, will now have a criminal record. Since the beginning of 2021, Poland has enforced a law banning abortion also in case of fetus malformation. This has been heavily contested through manifestations and protests in Poland and in the rest of the world. Justyna Wydrzynska is one of the founders of Kobiety w SIeci, the first Polish online forum where information about abortion can be found. It is a part of Abortion without Borders, a collective of organizations that aim to help Polish women access safe abortions.

(Chiara Giovannoni)

Chiara Giovannoni and Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SVB, fear in the markets. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank, the second biggest bankruptcy ever after Washington Mutal (2008), has knocked out the markets and threatens to cause a serious financial crisis although it would not seem comparable to 2008. SVB was the bank of choice for startups - initially in California and later internationally - and was the first victim of the bank run caused by a misalignment between deposits, which by nature have a short maturity because they can be withdrawn on short notice, and assets, negligently invested in government bonds and other financial instruments that, despite being safe, have a much longer maturity. Many years of zero interest rates led SVB (and other institutions) to seek higher yields in securities with longer maturities, but the last months'rising rates have led these to lose value on paper (continue).

SVB/2, what happened? These paper losses are not a problem in and of themselves since holding the securities to maturity would return the full face value. But they become a problem when account holders withdraw their deposits en masse, as it recently happened partly because of the downturn in the technology sector and the resulting demand for liquidity from such businesses. SVB was therefore forced to sell securities at a loss to allow withdrawals from accounts; it first sought a capital increase of more than $2 billion to cover this loss and then to sell the company, unsuccessfully. However, this turned the problems about the liquidity of the bank into doubts about its solvency, sparking a widespread panic and a bank run, interrupted only by the intervention of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The corporation took control of the bank and insured all its deposits, and not just those up to the $250,000 limit on federal guarantees.

First Republic Bank, will the rescue work? The intervention of Wall Street's largest banks has secured, at least for now, the salvage of First Republic Bank, one of the most troubled U.S. regional banks. At the initiative of Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, persuaded the other major banks - 11 in total - to contribute to a $30 billion fund to be deposited with First Republic for at least 120 days in order to ensure its liquidity or keep it afloat until a more permanent solution will be adopted. The rescue echoes the intervention of John Pierpont Morgan, the founder of the eponymous bank headed by Dimon, to stop the bank run during the Panic of 1907, and that of LTCM in 1998. Although above any hint of distress thanks to the tight regulations implemented after 2008, it is still in the interest of the major U.S. banks to stop the panic before more dominoes fall.

Switzerland, what is the future for Credit Suisse? Credit Suisse, which is a giant in the Swiss and international finance and one of the most solid institutions on the international scene until a few years ago, is the most illustrious victim of the SVB's collapse. Although the ultimate causes lie deeper (see below), the collapse of the Californian bank and the subsequent increased scrutiny of banks' balance sheets have precipitated the situation. Last Wednesday (15 March), the stock lost 24% of its value after its largest shareholder, the Saudi National Bank, expressed disinterest in increasing its stake in the Swiss bank. The Swiss National Bank then had to step in, offering support in the evening, declaring CS's solidity and providing $54 billion in liquidity overnight. The shares rejoiced with a 40% rise at the opening, only to fall back to +20%, but the medium to long-term fate remains unknown amid hypotheses of a spin-off of the main divisions or a merger with UBS.

Credit Suisse, a troubled story. The situation at Credit Suisse was worrying long before last week. Many years of successive scandals had tarnished the image of the prestigious Swiss bank and damaged its balance sheet. Although far from the glory of 2008, when it boasted assets of $1.2 trillion (now $576 billion), CS had a market capitalisation of over $50 billion in 2018 (now around $8 billion). However, since then, it has been dogged by scandals and management failures: in 2018, the Lescaudron case, convicted of defrauding the bank's clients; between 2019 and 2020, the resignation of both its COO and CEO for spying on Thiam, the former head of wealth management who had moved to UBS; in March 2021, the implosion of Greensill Capital (a $10 billion loss) and Archegos ($5.5 billion lost); in October 2021, a $475 million fine for corruption in a loan to Mozambique; in 2022, the conviction for money laundering due to drug trafficking; and finally, last February, the disclosure of losses for $7.6 billion in 2022, equivalent to the last decade's profits.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Mali, the ruling junta postpones the date of the constitutional referendum. The spokesman of the ruling junta in Mali - Colonel Maiga - told the press with just a nine day-notice that the date of the constitutional referendum to be held March 19, 2023 will be postponed; additionally, a new deadline has not been provided. Because of this postponement, the military missed the first deadline on a calendar of consultations and reforms which is supposed to lead to February 2024 elections in view of a civilians’ return to power. Colonel Maïga minimized the extent of the setback: "The deadline remains the date agreed by Mali with ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States) - February 2024 precisely - and the Head of State, Assimi Goita, is firmly committed to respecting this date", he said. ECOWAS had taken retaliatory measures in January 2022 following the willingness of the Malian military - which came to power with two coups in 2020 - to remain in power for up to five years. These measures were then withdrawn following an agreement on the timing of a shared roadmap towards free elections.

Francesco Lorenzini

NORTH AMERICA

Canada: Minister Ng mission in the U.K. Canadian Minister of International Trade, Export Promotion, Small Business and Economic Development Mary Ng participated with nearly 40 Canadian women business leaders in a Women's Canada Trade Mission to the United Kingdom. The mission allowed Mary Ng to demonstrate Canada's commitment to creating more trade and investment opportunities for Canadian women in international markets, along with Indigenous peoples, minorities, youths and members of the 2SLGBTQI+ community. In London she also had the opportunity to discuss new solutions to counter climate changes, promote jobs and investment within the two countries with the British Secretary of State for Business and Trade, Kemi Badenoch. During the visits to companies having strong ties with Canada, Mary Ng traveled in an iconic London double-decker bus fuelled by a hydrogen-powered fuel cell technology developed by a Canada-based company.

United States of America: a new deal for the U.S., U.K. and Australia. American President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Australian premier Anthony Albanese met in a submarine base in California to sign a new defense deal within the project of AUKUS (Australian, U.K., U.S.) on March 13. The three nations committed to a submarine-building deal that will send a sub designed and created in the United Kingdom to Canberra. This pact will increase the presence of all three nations in the Pacific area, but the leaders did not state in public that the decision was taken in response of the growing assertiveness by China, even though a senior British military official stated "I can't believe for a minute that Beijing is sitting there thinking: 'AUKUS is great, carry on''". It is important to note that Americans will widen their influence in the area by hosting U.S. subs in the Australians ports until the new submarine will be operative. In addition to that, Biden announced that the deal will create new job opportunities in all three countries.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Honduras, Castro seeks new relations with China. Honduran President, Xiomara Castro, said she plans to open official diplomatic ties with China with a move that would end her official relationship with the self-ruled island of Taiwan. The President, who already announced during the election campaign in 2021 that she wanted to change ties with Beijing, wrote on Twitter on Tuesday evening that she had instructed her Foreign Minister to start the process of recognizing the People's Republic of China.

(Ludovica Costantini)

Argentina, suffers its strongest drought since decades. The Buenos Aires Times reported that Argentina is currently suffering from extreme heat and drought, hitting the country to the point where this caused a crisis for the agriculture sector. Additionally, this dramatic scenario is unprecedented in the history of the crises experienced by the country in the past, and the Rosario stock exchange declared that the crisis could get worse with possible consequences also for agriculture. The phenomenon was caused by la nina (which means 'little girl' in Spanish), that is, a particular atmospheric situation that hit other Latin American countries, including Uruguay, and that basically consists of hot wind coming from East Asia.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Mexico, 4 American citizens kidnapped and new tensions with the USA. On Tuesday, in the border city of Mamatau, four American citizens were kidnapped: two of them were found dead and the other two alive. This episode is reinforcing the tension in the US-Mexican relations, with an impact especially on tourism, which is one of the most important sectors for the Mexican economy.

Moreover, the Mexican president declared that Mexico is safer than most of the United States and that Americans shouldn’t be worried about traveling in his country. On the other hand, the Texas Department of Public Safety warned US citizens to not travel to Mexico because of the violence from the drug cartels.

Unfortunately, kidnappings are common in Mexico, even in tourist destinations, with this being one of the main reasons why the tension between the two countries has increased.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Ludovica Costantini and Francesco Andrea Rossi

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

China, the "Two Sessions" and the Goals for 2023. The "Two Sessions" were held in China between March 4 and 14. The name refers to the annual plenary sessions of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Policy, both held each spring at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. During the National People's Assembly, Li Keqiang shared a report on the work of the government, the latest for the premier who is preparing to give way to his successor. The document states that China has set a GDP growth target of 5% for 2023, an achievable goal that leaves ample room for maneuver for the country's new leadership. A priority for 2023 will also be to strengthen policies to attract foreign investment and achieve self-sufficiency in the scientific and technological sectors. China plans to restructure the Ministry of Science and Technology, specifically a Central Commission will be established for science and technology, which will be directly under the Party and will aim to oversee the ministry. China has also announced the creation of a National Data Bureau, which will become an important tool in promoting the development of the digital economy in the country. The two sessions in 2023 are the backdrop for the inauguration of the new five-year period in the country and its new leadership. The role of Premier passes from Li Keqiang to Li Qiang, a figure very close to Xi and former Head of the Communist Party of Shanghai. Other appointments include Li Shangfu as defense minister, Wang Xiaohong as public security minister and Chen Yixin as minister of state security, who will play a crucial role in assuring the Party control over the country's security apparatus. In his speech for the conclusion of the Assembly, Xi Jinping underlined the importance of balancing growth and security in targeting national objectives, promising to continue working for a peaceful solution for Taiwan and showing that his position on the issue is not changed.

(Alessandra Tamponi)

Thailand, economic dialogue with the EU restored. Brussels knows how the Indo-Pacific region is progressively gaining a central role in the international arena. As it can be understood from the propensity for economic cooperation with South-East Asian countries, the European Union is willing to increase its involvement in the area. In recent years, Brussels has signed free trade agreements with Singapore and Vietnam, which Thailand is ready to join. Relations with Bangkok were drastically interrupted in 2014, following the establishment of a military dictatorship which had subverted the democratic order and ousted the Prime minister Shinawatra. Since 2019, when the coup regime assumed formally democratic characteristics by hiding military primacy behind a fragile ‘civilist’ facade, a process of relations’ normalization with the western democratic world has begun. Although the nature of the Thai regime has remained unchanged in substance, Brussels has declared its intention to enter into negotiations for a free trade agreement with Bangkok, for which the EU is already the fourth largest trading partner. A choice that is part of a broader strategy of contrast to the Chinese economic role, for both parties.

(Rocco Salvadori)

North Korea: ICBM launched from Pyongyang National Airport. The KCNA, a state-controlled news agency, confirms the object of the launch that took place last Thursday from Pyongyang. Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un personally guided the first test of the Hwasong-17, the newest ICBM that the RPDK acquired at the end of 2020. According to the agency's statements, the launch was aimed to demonstrate Pyongyang's intention and capability to respond with overwhelming offensive measures to any external threat. Such a showdown was deemed necessary not only in the light of a renewed conflictual reality in international relations, but also in the face of the current joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea. Known as the 'Freedom Shield', the exercise is perceived by Kim as an intimidating provocation led by a potentially dangerous partnership for North Korean security; in this context, the launch of the Hwasong-17, from Pyongyang's perspective, must serve as a warning to the American power.

(Rocco Salvadori)

Alessandra Tamponi e Rocco Salvadori

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

France, clashes continue against pension reform. After weeks of clashes and protests, French Prime Minister Borne, in order to definitively approve the pension reform, has decided to resort to Article 49-3 of the French Constitution, which enables the government to push a bill through the Parliament, without a vote. President Macron supported the government's choice to use this article to face 'financial and economic risks that would be too great for the country' if the reform is not approved. The reform aims at raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 years, at extending the pension contribution period to 43 years and to gradually reorganise special schemes. The measure may become law if the motions of censure to be debated on Monday do not receive a majority of votes.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, Critical Raw Materials Act presented. The European Commission has presented a series of actions to enable the Union’s secure, diversified and economically sustainable access to critical raw materials, which are increasingly needed in various sectors, including the digital, aerospace and net-zero emissions industries. These materials are therefore necessary for the production of several technologies that are also important for the green transition, such as wind energy production or hydrogen storage. The aim of these actions is also to reduce the EU's dependence on China: by 2030, Brussels would like no more than 65% of the annual consumption of a critical material to come from a single third country. To date, China controls the refining of most of the materials critical for the green transition. Together with the zero net emission industry regulation and the reform of the electricity market framework, the new measures presented favour zero net emission industries and present a favourable regulatory environment for the competitiveness of European industry.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, Scholz seeks increased competitiveness at Brussels summit: Last week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he is seeking reforms, including making state aid more flexible and thus completing the integration of capital markets and banking unions, with the aim of boosting European competitiveness to also cope with the Inflation Reduction Act, a U.S. subsidy program for clean energy. Scholz also said commodity security will be at the top of the agenda, at a time when the EU is unveiling a Critical Raw Materials Act, whose goal is to keep pace with the U.S. and China in access to raw materials. Indeed, according to the German chancellor, in the race for raw materials and energy, "Europe and Germany are increasingly being left behind."

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Bianca Franzini and Francesca Pasqualino

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Russia's "historic ruling" on arrest warrant for Putin: On March 17, the International Criminal Court, based in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for war crimes against and crimes against humanity for President Vladimir Putin and Russian Commissioner for Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova, stating that they bear individual criminal responsibility for the abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children since the beginning of the Russian invasion. Presidential immunity is excluded for these kinds of crimes; however, the likelihood of arrest is very slim since the Russian Federation did not ratify the Rome Statute in 1998 that established the court itself. Therefore, the court must rely on law enforcement agencies with jurisdiction in the 123 countries that adhere to the statute. These, under international law, have an obligation to arrest the Russian president should he travel to their territory. Nevertheless, the mandate deepens Putin's isolation from the West and limits his travel.

Greece, violent protests flood the Country. On March 16 in Athens' central Syntagma Square, what began as a peaceful demonstration quickly escalated into violent clashes with national police outside the parliament building.On the same day, a 24-hour strike by Greece's public and private sector unions also took place, halting civil services, flights and ferries across the country. Since the tragic train crash on Feb. 28 that claimed 57 young lives, protests have inflamed the entire country involving more than 40,000 people. Indeed, the protesters are venting their anger and frustration over Greece's long-standing serious infrastructure security problems, urging the conservative government of Prime Minister Mitsotakis to step down ahead of the next national elections scheduled for this spring.

Francesca Pasqualino

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Tunisia, wave of fake news against sub-Saharan immigrants. In recent weeks, Tunisia has been invaded by a wave of fake news concerning the presence of groups of sub-Saharan migrants intent on committing acts of violence and revolts in the main Tunisian cities. Shared virally by the main social networks, videos and news were taken up by various mainstream Tunisian newspapers. The extent of the phenomenon was so massive that it attracted the interest of various international portals. The BBC, for instance, demonstrated how most of the videos had actually been recorded abroad. This phenomenon occurs just after the harsh attack of Kais Saied - President of the Tunisian Republic - against African communities in Tunisia. Kaies stated at the end of February that the country was subject to an "invasion” by sub-Saharan migrants according to an unspecified plan to "suppress the 'Arab identity of Tunisia'.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Turkey, the opposition reunites and challenges the reis: the internal crisis between the oppositions has been resolved. The IYI party, led by Meral Akşener, has re-established an alliance with the united opposition, probably after realizing the unwillingness of İmamoğlu and Yavaş to run for the presidency. On the 6th of March from the headquarters of the Saadet Paritisi, on which a giant picture of Atatürk towered, the coalition announced its support for the candidacy of the Republican leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. According to recent polls, the CHP leader, heir to the leftist Kemalist tradition, has a good chance of defeating the current president. The Kurdish party, HDP, could probably also support the united candidacy in order to oust Erdoğan.

(Michele Magistretti)

Libya, the new UN plan: the new special representative for the UNSMIL mission, Senegalese Abdoulaye Bathily, has promoted a new initiative to break the deadlock that has fuelled the country's political limbo and internal division for years. The onusian envoy envisages a new committee of around forty members, selected from the various stakeholders of the internal political-institutional scene, excluding the parallel government of Fathi Bashaga. Bathily faces resistance from the Tobruk House of Representatives, led by Aguila Saleh Issa, and the Tripoli High Council of State, chaired by Khalid al-Mishri. A first step towards internal pacification could be the unification of the army with the creation of three different battalions, one for each of the country's three provinces.

(Michele Magistretti)

Michele Magistretti e Francesco Lorenzini

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

West Bank, 4 Palestinians killed in Israeli military operation. During what has been described as a military operation by Israeli authorities near the town of Jenin, four Palestinian nationals, including a 16-year-old boy, were killed in clashes that occurred between the military and groups of Palestinian protesters. Although the dynamics of the incident have yet to be clarified, according to Israeli Army statements, two of the people killed were part of a jihadist group. With this attack, the number of Palestinians killed since the beginning of 2023 has risen to 83.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Turkey, approval of Finland's application to join NATO announced. This was announced by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself at the end of an official meeting with his Finnish counterpart Sauli Niinistö in Ankara on Friday. Ergodan said Turkey has already activated procedures for the ratification of the Scandinavian country's protocols for joining the Atlantic Alliance, which is expected to take place by next May's presidential elections.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Tunisia, the European Parliament approves a resolution condemning the authoritarian drift in Tunisia. On 16 March the European Parliament voted on a resolution on the "recent attacks on freedom of expression and association and attacks against trade unions in Tunisia, in particular the case of journalist Noureddine Boutar". The resolution was adopted with 496 votes out of 537, a substantial majority and a warning to the other European authorities to take a coherent position on Tunisia. The text of the resolution exposes a series of events which taken together offer a clear idea of the Kais Saied regime’s autocratic drift. The text mentions the assumption of full powers by the President and the dismantling of the constitutional organisms, then referring to the arrest, on 11 February 2023, of the journalist Noureddine Boutar, a leading figure of the independent radio station Mosaïque FM. The resolution also refers to the decrees that violate the fundamental freedoms, among which stands the one related to cybercrime, as well as the bill on NGOs which now require prior government approval to be constituted. Finally, the resolution calls for the reinstatement of arbitrarily dismissed judges, the repeal of all measures that undermine the independence of the judiciary and an end to the prosecution of civilians by military courts.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Davide Shahhosseini and Francesco Lorenzini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Carlo Padiglione: Asia and the Far East

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Elisa Maggiore: Latin America

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Rocco Salvadori: Asia and the Far East

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa