Framing The World, CIX Edition

Framing The World, CIX Edition

In the next issue of FtW we cover Presidents, from the resignation of PSOE leader Sánchez in Spain to the confirmation of Erdogan at the helm of Turkey. We will also talk about the new anti-LGBT law in Uganda and the reaction from Washington. Still on the subject of human rights, Amnesty International denounces an increase in executions and violations of human rights in Iran. All this and more in the 109th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Ukraine, new wave of Russian attacks claims 7 lives in Kyiv. A devastating series of Russian missile attacks has shaken the Ukrainian capital during the celebration of International Children's Day. Seven people, including a mother and her daughter, were tragically killed, while many others sustained injuries. "Children have the right to live, learn, and grow free from the threat of conflict and violence. However, the recent Russian attack on Ukraine targeted schools, nurseries, and numerous civilian buildings, turning a day meant for children into a day of mourning," stated Denis Krivosheev, Deputy Director for Europe at Amnesty International.

Vietnam, activist Bui Tuan Lam sentenced to five and a half years in prison for "propaganda against the state". Bui Tuan Lam, a renowned Vietnamese activist known for his satirical and critical posts against the government, was sentenced to a five and a half-year prison term. His conviction is based on charges of "propaganda against the state" under Article 117 of the Vietnamese penal code, often used to suppress freedom of expression. The persecution of Bui Tuan Lam originated in November 2021 when he was summoned by the Da Nang police following the publication of a video on his Facebook page. Amnesty International has called for his immediate release.

Iran, Amnesty International denounces an increase in executions for drug offenses and human rights violations. Since the beginning of 2023, Iranian authorities have put to death at least 173 prisoners for drug-related crimes, nearly triple the number from the previous year. These executions, following unfair trials, account for two-thirds of all hangings and primarily affect individuals from marginalized and economically disadvantaged backgrounds. Baluchi prisoners, a persecuted and impoverished ethnic group, make up about 20% of death row inmates, despite comprising only 5% of Iran's population. Amnesty has condemned the shameful speed at which Iranian authorities carry out death sentences for drug offenses, in violation of international law, highlighting their lack of humanity and profound disregard for the right to life.

Sofia Ena

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

US, a debt deal. With a 63 to 36 vote, the Senate agreed to raise the government debt limit, sending the bill to President Biden's desk for final approval after the House had approved it 314 to 117, just days before the spending limit was reached on June 5. The measure will hold government spending constant for 2024, with some spending restrictions planned for 2025, but social security and medicare are not included, as will military spending, up 3 % (below inflation and thus causing hawks among Democrats and Republicans to moan). The removal of this sword of Damocles makes markets breathe a sigh of relief, closing the week with rises between 3% for the S&P500 and 4.3% for the Nasdaq.

Germany, in recession. Destatis, Germany's federal statistical office, revised down its estimates for German GDP growth in the first quarter from 0 to -0.3 %, a widely expected figure after industrial production fell sharply in February and consumer sales slowed in March. The country is thus officially in a recession, as the last quarter of 2022 had also recorded a negative figure. Driving the downward trend was a decrease in household consumption for food, clothing and footwear purchases, but also car sales, which dropped due to a reduction in government incentives on hybrid and electric cars. The silver lining was private sector investment, which grew by 3.9 %, and the trade balance, with a more positive balance thanks to a drop in imports (-0.9%) and an increase in exports (+0.4%).

Europe, mixed data. The downbeat data from Germany, Europe's economic engine, negatively affected quarterly results for continental manufacturing activity, which was found to have shrunk at the fastest rate in three years. The Manufacturing PMI index in May fell to 44.6, where a reading below 50 indicates contraction, although the services sector measure, 55.9, still points to robust expansion and is the reason why the European Commission assumes, despite the sharp slowdown in manufacturing, that GDP will grow by 0.4 % quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter as well.

Eu, inflation continues its descent. The best data come from France, where the rate fell to 6 % - at its lowest in 12 months - from 6.9% in April and well below the 6.4% estimated by economists, Spain, where the CPI rate fell to 2.9% from 3.8% in April and versus the 3.3% expected, and Germany (6.3% against the 6.8% expected). In France, the drop recorded by energy prices is significant, while prices of goods and services, as in Spain, are decelerating more slowly. In Italy, on the other hand, the rate did drop to 8.1 % but remained well above forecasts (7.5%) and is a signal to the European Central Bank that it is not yet time to let its guard down, as signaled by Vice President Luis de Guindos who, while confident that they are on the right track, does not go so far as to declare victory.

Nvidia, a record rise. Nvidia has become the latest new addition to the club of companies worth more than a trillion dollars, joining a very exclusive club consisting of Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, albeit for a few days only. The U.S. chip maker presented stellar quarterly results (revenue per share +44%, earnings +26%, operating expenses -30%) and raised its forecast for second quarter revenues by 40%, thanks in part to its entry into the artificial intelligence market, and in a single session saw its value rise 24%, or +$184 billion (the largest increase in history). The stock has since fallen slightly and at the end of last week registered a value of $975 billion, and since the beginning of the year has nonethle risen 174 %..

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Senegal, violence breaks out following the sentence against the leader of the opposition. Tension has been high since June 1 in the streets of the capital Dakar and in Ziguinchor following the sentence against Ousmane Sonko, leader of the opposition in the country. The central government has sent the army to the squares to deal with the escalation of violence by pro-Sonko protesters. For his part, Sonko, sentenced to two years in prison for "corruption of youth" declares that the sentence has an exclusively political nature and would be aimed at avoiding his participation in the 2024 presidential elections. At the moment (June 4) the death toll is 15 and the situation does not seem to be improving despite the warnings and calls for calm from the United Nations and the African Union. ECOWAS also declares its concern that Senegal, considered a bulwark of "peace and stability" in the Sahel-Saharan area, could sink into insecurity or, worse, into a civil war if the government does not take adequate measures.

Nigeria, no more state subsidies on petrol: the cost-of-living weighs on Nigerians. On May 31, NNPC, the national energy company, tripled the cost of petrol, which thus rose from 189 to 557 naira per liter. This provision took place on the impetus of the newly elected President Bola Timbu, a member of the All progressives congress party, who defined the choice as necessary and far-sighted, as the funds saved will be used for investments in infrastructure and services. For their part, Nigerians went to petrol stations immediately after the President's announcement to cushion the loss of their purchasing power. In 2012, the proposal to eliminate public energy subsidies had caused the outbreak of protests across the country; currently the situation is critical especially in the Lake Chad area, where electricity is already scarce and is based exclusively on obsolete generators. In this way, the extremist groups, among which Boko Haram stands out, could benefit from the growth of popular resentment against the leadership in power, considered corrupt and dominated by the West and large multinationals.

Sara Oldani

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, The Washington and Taipei trade agreement. On the 1st of June the United States and Taiwan signed "the most comprehensive" trade agreement since 1979, intended to strengthen and deepen the economic and trade relationship between both sides. The agreement was signed by representatives of the American Institute in Taiwan and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, under the "US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade", which looks to boost the trading interconnection between Washington and Taipei. Beijing warned Washington against any agreement "with connotations of sovereignty", as stated by foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning, who told the media that the United States "must not send the wrong signals to Taiwan independence forces in the name of trade".

United States of America, Washington against anti LGBTQ+ law in Uganda. In response to the controversial anti LGBTQ+ law issued in Uganda, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, said that the White House may decide to restrict visas granted to Ugandan officials. Washington also decided to update the travel guidance to American citizens and to US businesses. The American government may also issue existing visa restrictions tools against Ugandan officials and other individuals for abuse of universal rights, as stated by Blinken. Biden is also pondering the possibility of striking Uganda with economic sanctions since the law is considered a "tragic violation of universal human rights". On the other hand, Florida Republican governor Ron DeSantis, who is going to run for the upcoming presidential elections, has supervised the so-called "don't say gay" law, aimed to limit the LGBTQ+ movement.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Brazil, Lula receives Venezuelan leader Maduro. On the occasion of the meeting of South American presidents Maduro went to Brasilia, welcomed by the landlord Lula. This is the first time Maduro has returned to Brazil for 8 years, when former President Bolsonaro had "banned" him from the country. The reopening of diplomatic relations between the two leaders suggests an attempt to clear Maduro's name in the region.

(Ludovica Costantini)

Mexico, streets protests to support the Supreme Court. In various Mexico cities, including Guadalajara, Monterrey, Querétaro, Morelia, Cancún, Xalapa, Oaxaca, there have been several street protests in support of the Supreme Court which has been attacked by the President Lòpez Obrador. Indeed, his goal is to overhaul Mexico’s judicial system, and proposing a Constitutional change which would have a strong impact on the Mexican legal system. Many slogans included phrases like ‘’the law is the law’’ and ‘’if the Court fails, Mexico will fail too’’. The Mexican president strongly criticized the protesters.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Costa Rica, the government proposes an increase of taxes on tourism. The Costa Rican government has decided to propose new taxes which would have a strong impact on the tourism industry of the country, which was already damaged by the pandemic and is slowly recovering. The Costa Rican National Chamber of tourism opposed the increasement of taxes in the country, based on the fact that there should be more competitiveness and new policy decisions that could attract tourists and visitors from all around the world, which consequently, would have a positive effect on the country’s economy, as tourism is one of the most important sector in the Costa Rican Economy.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Ludovica Costantini and Francesco Andrea Rossi

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

South Korea hosts the first Korea-Pacific Island summit in Seoul. The event brought together South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and leaders and representatives from 17 of the 18 Pacific Island Forum (PIF) member countries. Yoon took the opportunity to establish official ties between his country and the island state of Niue and strengthen relations between South Korea and Oceania, an increasingly strategically important region. The member states of the Pacific Island Forum have a key role in the realization of the Indo-Pacific strategy, announced by the Yoon administration in 2022. The President indeed hopes to extend his country's influence in the Pacific and at the summit he promised that Korea of the South pledges to double Official Development Assistance (ODA) to the region by 2027.

Singapore, the Shangri La Dialogue is taking place. Between 2 and 4 June, Singapore will host Asia's most important defense summit and become the venue for exchanges where defense ministers and military representatives from 28 Asia Pacific countries discuss the most pressing security challenges of the region. The 2023 event sees tensions around Taiwan escalate and China and the US further apart than ever. In his June 3 speech, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirmed his country's commitment to defending the Taiwan Strait from aggression. In response to Austin's comments, Lieutenant General Jing Jianfeng accused the United States of undermining the One China principle. A meeting between the representatives of the two countries is not expected.

Alessandra Tamponi

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Sánchez Resigns: Spain heads to the polls after right-wing victory. The Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has resigned following the defeat of his Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) in the municipal elections. The triumph of right-wing forces, particularly the Popular Party and Vox nationalists, has led to the decision to hold early elections on July 23, five months before the natural end of the legislature. The resignation of the Spanish Prime Minister has garnered attention not only at the national level but also across Europe. The fact that the snap elections will take place three weeks after the start of Spain's presidency of the Council of the European Union has raised questions about the potential implications for EU institutions.

(Sofia Ena)

EU: Hungary's Turn Presidency Revoked for Violation of EU Values. The European Parliament has overwhelmingly approved a resolution condemning Hungary and revoking its turn presidency of the Council of the European Union in 2024. The decision was made due to the Hungarian government's continuous and systematic attempts, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, to undermine the fundamental values of the Union, rendering the country incapable of fulfilling the role of presidency in a credible manner. In addition to measures such as suspending trilogues and excluding Hungarian ministers from meetings, the European Parliament has also rejected the renewal of the Hungarian judge at the European Court of Auditors. The decision by the European Parliament reflects concerns over Hungary's lack of compliance with EU law and values. This episode highlights the escalating tension between Brussels and Budapest, raising questions about the country's future within the EU.

(Sofia Ena)

European Political Community, summit in Moldova. The European Political Community, created in 2022 on a French proposal, and appreciated for its informal nature that fosters fruitful interactions at an important time for the continent, met in Moldova for its second summit. Around fifty leaders from across Europe attended, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and EU Foreign Policy Representative Josep Borrell. The aim of the summit was 'a firm message of peace and condemnation of the Russian invasion of neighbouring Ukraine'.
Macron also called for common European defence, and for 'fully sovereign' European arms production to develop 'a European defence industrial and technological base in all the countries concerned."

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, munitions production plan kicks off: the European Parliament on June 1 adopted a negotiating mandate to accelerate the production of "Made in Europe" munitions with the goal of producing at least one million munitions per year by June 2025. The European Commission's proposal calls for the mobilization of 500 million euros from the EU budget and got the green light from the Euro chamber with 446 votes in favor, 67 against and 112 abstentions. Amendments tabled by the Socialist and Democrat group to waive the use of National Recovery and Resilience Plan funds to finance community-based arms production were rejected. The plan is part of a broader "Defense Plan" that calls for the immediate delivery of munitions to Ukraine, joint arms purchases, and an increase in European arms production capacity. The Commission clarified that the use of NRP funds is not mandatory, but is an option for member states. The plan will have to be negotiated with member states as soon as possible.

Bianca Franzini, Francesca Pasqualino and Sofia Ena

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Poland, Duda steps back on law against Russian influence: Polish President Andrzej Duda has proposed emergency amendments to the new law establishing a commission of inquiry to identify persons acting in Russia's interests. Duda had signed the law on Tuesday, May 30, after it was approved by parliament. The head of state's intervention was due to criticism of the text not only within Polish public opinion, but also from the European Commission. Vice-President responsible for Values and Transparency Věra Jourová had threatened specific measures to be taken by Brussels if an attack on Polish democracy was detected. According to what was approved by the Polish parliament, the independent commission was designed to ban people guilty of acting under the influence of the Kremlin from holding public office for a decade. According to Duda's proposed amendments, however, the commission will not apply sanctions, but will merely declare the culprit's inability to ensure independence in serving the state

Serbia, tensions also during EU summit: On Thursday, June 1, the European summit was held in Moldova in support of Kiev. Also present was Kosovo's President Vjosa Osmani, who accused Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic of supporting criminal gangs in northern Kosovo, but Serbia rejected these accusations. Tensions in Kosovo have been fueled by clashes between protesters and security forces during elections for ethnic Albanian mayors in Serb-majority municipalities. Thirty peacekeepers and 52 Serbs who protested the elections were injured in the violence Monday, prompting NATO to announce it would send additional troops in more than 700 already en route to the Balkan country to boost its mission by 4,000 strong. A meeting between Osmani and Vucic was not scheduled during the summit in Moldova. The EU and the U.S. Secretary of State condemned the violence and called on both sides to reduce tensions and act responsibly.

Francesca Pasqualino

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Turkey, the Erdoğan era continues: on Sunday, May 28th, President Erdoğan took victory in the second round of the presidential elections with around 52% of the votes. The nationalist twist of the Kemalist candidate, who tried to focus on anti-immigration sentiment to snatch the votes of the nationalists, who had turned to Oğan in the first round, was to no avail. In fact, Oğan himself succumbed to the blandishments of the Islamo-nationalist coalition and gave his support to the AKP leader. A few days before the second round of elections, some Arab partners confirmed or promoted new multi-billion dollar economic deals, confirming the increasing divergence of perspectives between Ankara and the West. Meanwhile, the united coalition of the oppositions seems to have little prospect of survival, some deputies from minor parties might be co-opted into the current government majority in the future.

Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Israel, three Israeli soldiers were killed on the border with Egypt. According to the Israeli army, a gunman, whose identity has not been disclosed, was behind the attack that led to the death of three Israeli soldiers. The reason behind the attack has not yet been clarified. However, a spokesman for Tel Aviv authorities stated that it was likely connected to a drug smuggling operation previously foiled in the same area, near the Nitzana border crossing, the latter located 40 kilometers from the Gaza Strip.

Mexico, 45 bags containing human remains found in Guadalajara. Mexican authorities found at least 45 bags containing human remains in a ravine near the city of Guadalajara in western Mexico. The discovery came during a search for a group of young call center workers who had been reported missing about a week earlier. At the moment, the bodies have not been identified and the total number of victims and the cause of their death is unclear. It is known that the remains belong to both men and women. The search for the remains is still ongoing, with the involvement of the firefighters and civil defence.

Davide Shahhosseini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Rocco Salvadori: Asia and the Far East

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa