Framing The World, CVII Edition

Framing The World, CVII Edition

In the next issue of FtW we cover the visit of the Japanese Prime Minister to South Korea to strengthen the security cooperation of the two countries. Later, remaining on the subject of security, we analyze Algeria's diplomatic attempts to stop the Tuareg rebellion in Mali. Finally, we describe the intense Turkish electoral campaign. All this and more in the 107th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Bangladesh, 10 years since the Rana Plaza collapse. April 24, 2023 marks the 10th anniversary of the Rana Plaza disaster, an event that shook the garment industry globally. On that day, the eight-story building that housed five garment factories producing clothes for European and US consumers collapsed, killing 1138 textile workers, 80% of them women. A few months after the event, more than 200 brands signed the Rana Plaza Arrangement and the International Agreement on Health and Safety in the Textile and Garment Industry, which has improved working conditions in the country over the last 10 years. However, many issues still persist. According to Action Aid Bangladesh, today 50% of the survivors cannot find a job, many of them because of problems caused by the accident. While the Clean Clothes Campaigning movement points out that textile workers earn only 0.6% of the final price of a shirt and on average their salary is a quarter of what they would need to live a decent life.

Singapore, executed Tangaraju Suppiah. On 26 April, Tangaraju Suppiah, a 46-year-old man convicted in 2018 for “aiding and abetting the trafficking of more than one kilogram of cannabis”, was executed in Changi Prison. Singapore's current laws against drug offences are among the most repressive in the world and even include the mandatory death penalty. Moreover, this rigidity grants judges limited discretion in deciding sentencing as it is the prosecution that actually sanctions the death sentence. “Singapore’s punitive drug policies have failed not only to tackle the use and availability of drugs in the country, but also failed to offer effective protection from drug-related harm. The government of Singapore must take note of the growing trend around the world towards abandoning the death penalty and act accordingly, first by establishing an official moratorium on all executions, then moving towards full abolition.” said Ming Yu Hah, Amnesty International's deputy director for Asia. Since March 2022, 12 hangings have taken place in Singapore.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

UN adopts resolution against Taliban's restrictions on Afghan women. On April 28th, the United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution calling on the Taliban to end violations of the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan. The resolution, presented by the United Arab Emirates and Japan, was unanimously approved by all fifteen council members, with the support of 90 other countries, including Italy. The decision was made in response to the latest ban on women working in the country, reaffirming the important role played by women in Afghan society.

(Sofia Ena)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

Big Tech, better than expected. Microsoft's shares soared (+11% in two days, +28% since January) after presenting better-than-expected quarterly accounts, mainly thanks to Azure results, which grew 27% (31% in constant currency), albeit down from +51% in 2022. Positive data also for Alphabet, which puts in higher-than-expected revenues ($69.79 vs. $68.9 billion) despite a decline in advertising revenues (but YouTube does better than expected), and sees profits fall, albeit for expenses related to the layoff of 12,000 employees announced in January, costing $2.6 billion, but this does not prevent a rise of more than 3% (+20% since January). Also up sharply is Apple, +4.7% (+39% since January), which, buoyed by iPhones sales, which rose to $51.3 billion vs. the decline to 48.8 expected), raises its dividend by 4% and announces an additional $90 billion for its share buyback program.

Banks, a new failure. First Republic Bank, one of the banks most weakened by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, was taken over by JPMorgan after a brief negotiation that followed a week where it experienced a series of collapses that led it to lose 78 % in 5 days and 97% since the beginning of the year. The latest catalyst was the presentation of quarterly results, which revealed $104.5 billion in deposits withdrawn in 3 months, despite the $30 billion deposited by major U.S. banks to try to stop the bleeding. The bank had unveiled a cost-cutting plan, cutting compensation, offices and staff, but that was not enough to rebuild investor confidence. After the market closed on Friday (April 28) came the news that the bank had come under the control of the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation), which then accepted JPMorgan's offer, which will pay $10.6 billion and share losses (or gains) with the federal agency, before the market opened on May 1.

Chile, a nationalization plan. Chile, the world's second-largest lithium producer, announced the introduction of a law to transfer control of the reserves, currently exploited by American Albemarle and Chilean SQM (the world's first and second-largest lithium producers, respectively), to a government-controlled company, CORFO (Corporación de Fomento de la Producción de Chile). The intention is to transfer ownership to the government agency over time and to assign the operations to state-private partnerships with a state majority. The shock in the markets was immediate, with the two mining companies plummeting by about 20%, and doubts arose about the long-term reliability of lithium supplies. After talks with SQM, whose contract expires this year, and Albemarle (due to expire in 2043), the Chilean government reassured that contracts will be honored. Negotiations will resume around June, with the goal of an agreement before the end of President Boric's term in 2026.

Meta, what a trimester! The star of the week and of the first quarter of 2023 more generally is certainly Meta, which seems to have totally turned around from a terrible 2022 in which it lost about 65%. Thanks to its plan to reduce expenses (about $5 billion less), an increase in monthly users (+5% over 2022) and advertising revenue (+4%), Meta increased revenues by 3% against forecasts of a fourth consecutive quarter of declines. On Wall Street, the stock celebrated with +14% after the announcement, +86% since January and a whopping +162% from November lows.

Italy, a possible downgrade. Moody's rating agency warns that Italy is the only country among those surveyed by the agency that currently risks losing its investment grade status and seeing its debt downgraded to junk, which would prevent institutional investors from buying Italian bonds. Italy currently has a rating of Baa3, the last step before falling into the non-investment category, and has a negative outlook due to low growth and rising interest rates. The next rating will be announced on May 19, but Moody will not comment on the likelihood of such a downgrade. The main significance of this warning is related to expectations of a rise in the spread between BTPs and German Bunds after the differential had instead fallen in recent months thanks to the period of calm on the political front, the Meloni government's fiscal prudence, and the anti-fragmentation mechanism introduced by the ECB.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Mali, Algeria tries to defuse the Tuareg rebellion. Algerian Minister for Foreign Affairs Ahmed Attaf met with the head of the Malian military junta Assimi Goita in Bamako on 27th April to discuss the Tuareg issue in the region. The nomadic tribes of Mali have rebelled several times against the central power, most recently in 2012 when - in alliance with jihadist groups - they launched an offensive that reached the gates of the capital. Only the intervention of the French special forces prevented the fall of Bamako on that occasion. Thanks to Algerian intermediation - Mali and Algeria share 1400 km of border in the desert - it was possible to sign the Algiers Accords in 2015 with which the Tuaregs laid down their arms. However, in early 2023 the military junta of Goita announced its intention to suspend its participation in the implementation of these agreements. Consequently, the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) - an organization that brings together the nomadic tribes of northern Mali - affirmed "the absence of any instrument to build a common future" with the central power.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Burkina Faso, the Minister of Defense denounces foreign interference. Following several violations of Burkina Faso's airspace, Defense Minister Colonel-Major Kassoum Coulibaly denounced the interference by an undefined "international coalition" in Burkinabé affairs. The minister labeled the coalition as "a response to Ouagadougou's rapprochement with Moscow", while denying the presence of Wagner forces in the country. Coulibaly thundered against Western speculation, stating that "the Burkinabe are not children, Russia does not impose any laws on us" and that "the government of Burkina Faso is only asking Moscow to provide means".

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Francesco Lorenzini

NORTH AMERICA

United States: U.S. government about drone attack in Russia. The Russian government claimed that on the 3rd of May two drones flew overnight to the Kremlin to assassinate President Vladimir Putin, but he was not in the building. Kyiv denies its involvement, insisting that it is just a pretext created by Russians to escalate the war. American Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it is hard to take for granted anything the Kremlin says and his administration officials are still working to confirm the truth behind the attack. When Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin’s spokesperson, accused Washington of coordinating the drone strike, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that the Kremlin is lying and called the move a "ludicrous claim".

United States: the evacuation of U.S. citizens from Sudan. In response to the war in Sudan, the United States has begun coordinating the departure of private U.S. citizens, according to White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. The American government, even without actual troops on the ground, has displayed a number of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets to grant a safe travel to the Port of Sudan. U.S. special operations forces had already carried out an evacuation at the U.S. Embassy in Sudan but it is estimated that around 16,000 private U.S. citizens are still in Sudan. Sullivan said that the U.S. will indeed help the departure of its citizens but also noted that the State Department has been recommending Americans in Sudan to leave the country for many years now.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Paraguay, Santiago Peña wins the elections. Partido Colorado candidate Santiago Peña won the presidential election on April 30, 2023, with about 43% of the vote against his opponent Efrain Alegre. The new President from Colorado, the conservative party that has been in power in Paraguay since 1947 except for a brief period (2008/2012).

(Ludovica Costantini)

Brazil, Bolsonaro under criminal investigation. The Brazilian police questioned the ex-president of the country, Jair Bolsonaro, after he shared a video that doubted the result of the presidential election while he was in a hospital in Tampa (Florida). Consequently, Bolsonaro spent two hours replying to questions asked by the Brazilian police as now the police are trying to find the person responsible for the failed coup that took place last January. Brazilian Media reported that Bolsonaro accidentally published the video about the effect of Morphine. Now, Bolsonaro doesn’t enjoy immunity and is facing at least 16 criminal investigations.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Haiti, street violence is getting worse. In the Caribbean country of Haiti there have been street violence between the Vigilantes (the local Police) and the street gangs and because of this, the situation in the country has become unlivable. The United Nations are concerned as the country reached the highest number of murders, rapes, and kidnappings. Moreover, the rebellion and the street violence could mark the beginning of a new phase in the Haitian political and humanitarian crises.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Ludovica Costantini and Francesco Andrea Rossi

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

South Korea, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida on a diplomatic visit to Seoul. The Japanese Prime Minister Kishida will make a two-day official visit to South Korea to meet President Yoon Suk-yeol. The summit will mark the full resumption of "shuttle diplomacy" after more than a decade. The main issues will include security cooperation and North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. Although Yoon has publicly stated that he does not expect Japanese apologies for past wrongs, South Koreans tend to consider it a prerequisite for opening up to stronger relations. The role of public opinion is indeed fundamental; in the past, cooperation between Tokyo and Seoul has struggled to take off due to South Koreans' distrust. But today the importance of uniting the two democracies is growing in the face of threats from Russia, China and North Korea. Pyongyang's missile tests are gradually bringing the security fates of the two countries closer together. Trilateral military exercises with the United States have already resumed. However, Yoon cannot afford to appear too condescending to Japan, while Tokyo fears a new stiffening of South Korea. In this context, Kishida's visit is as essential as it is delicate, also in view of Yoon's participation in the G7 summit in Hiroshima.

(Rocco Salvadori)

India, victims of clashes in Manipur keep rising. India is facing a dramatic escalation in clashes in the northeastern state of Manipur, which began on May 3 and have claimed 54 lives so far on Saturday, May 6. The protests in the state are rooted in the complex relations between different ethnic groups in Manipur. They were born following the request by the ethnic group of the Meiteis, who make up about 53% of the population, inhabit the plains, and are mostly Hindus and Muslims, to be included in the category of Scheduled Tribes, and the ethnic groups who inhabit the mountains, such as the Nagas and the Kukis, mostly Christians, who make up about 40% of the population and fear a possible inclusion of the Meiteis among the Scheduled Tribes. In fact, according to Indiana law, groups that fall under Scheduled Tribes may be entitled to various benefits such as tax relief, public sector quotas and land rights, and this worries members of minority ethnic groups, who fear losing their rights to the areas of the state, at this time protected and reserved for those who fall within the Scheduled Tribes. Not being registered as a Scheduled Tribe, the Meitei are barred from purchasing land in about 90% of the state. The protests arose following an April 19 order by the Manipur High Court which, after more than ten years of requests from the Meiteis, ordered the state government to recommend to the Union Tribal Affairs Ministry a Scheduled Tribe tag for the Meitei ethnic group by May 29th.

(Alessandra Tamponi)

Alessandra Tamponi and Rocco Salvadori

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION


EU, anti-corruption proposals presented. The Commission has presented measures against corruption in the EU and worldwide. The measures presented have been described as 'a milestone in the fight against corruption at national and EU level'. Corruption prevention will be integrated into EU policies and programs and the European Commission will also monitor anti-corruption developments at the national level. It is also proposed to establish a sanctions regime within the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), with the aim of creating a culture of integrity. The proposed anti-corruption directive will now have to be negotiated and adopted by the Parliament and the Council.

(Bianca Franzini)

Italy-UK: Strategic Cooperation Memorandum Signed. During her visit to the British capital, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni signed a memorandum of understanding with Prime Minister Sunak to strengthen strategic cooperation and dialogue on global issues of common interest. The agreement includes a series of bilateral initiatives on security and defense, energy, climate, economy, and science. However, a special chapter has been dedicated to the issue of immigration, an urgent challenge shared by both sides. The two countries are determined to counter illegal landings in the Mediterranean and the English Channel with strict policies and to find lasting solutions through an innovative and cooperative approach that helps the countries of origin of migrants "address the root causes of the phenomenon."

(Sofia Ena)

The EU welcomes Ukraine as a new member of the civil protection mechanism. Since April 20th, Ukraine has been officially welcomed as a new member of the European Union's (EU) Civil Protection Mechanism, becoming the 36th participating state. This mechanism is aimed at helping countries affected by natural or man-made disasters. The agreement was signed in Kiev in the presence of the Commissioner for Crisis Management, Janez Lenarčič. The Union has also allocated an additional 55 million euros in humanitarian funds to Ukraine, bringing the total to 200 million since the beginning of 2023, in preparation for the upcoming winter, regardless of the situation of war in the country.

(Sofia Ena)

EU, import ban for products complicit in deforestation: The European Union adds another piece to the fight against deforestation on a global scale. With 552 votes in favor, the legislation was approved in Strasbourg and includes products such as: livestock, charcoal, cocoa, palm oil, rubber, soybeans, and wood and article that contain and are fed with the above products. Among the standards included in the law is respect for the rights of indigenous peoples in production processes. At the request of the EP, suppliers will also have to hold due diligence certification to prove that the product does not contribute to deforestation, and the company will have to testify that the goods are in line with the country's legislation. Also among the required information are geolocation coordinates of the places of origin. This will ensure that "all products obtained from areas deforested after December 31, 2020 will no longer be allowed to enter the European single market," says MEP Hansen. For those who do not comply, there may be a penalty with a maximum fine of 4 percent of their annual turnover in the Union.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Bianca Franzini, Francesca Pasqualino and Sofia Ena

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Belarus, Lukashenko against independent journalists: Belarusian President Lukashenko has launched an attack against the country's independent journalists. On April 28, Belarusian authorities arrested at least 12 journalists, including well-known journalist Roman Protasevich, who was arrested last year in Belarus following anti-government protests.

President Lukashenko has justified the arrests, saying the journalists are "agents of the West" seeking to destabilize the country. However, human rights groups denounced the arrests as a violation of press freedom and called for the immediate release of the journalists. The situation in Belarus has been the subject of international concern since the 2020 presidential election, which led to mass protests against Lukashenko's government. The Belarusian government harshly suppressed the protests and arrested thousands of people, including many journalists. The international community has condemned the journalists' arrests and called on the Belarusian government to respect human rights and press freedom.

Balkans, Albania earthquake and international solidarity in emergency management: The earthquake, measuring 6.4 on the Richter scale, occurred on April 22 in northeastern Albania, but was felt throughout the region, including Kosovo, Montenegro and northern Macedonia. The earthquake killed at least 51 people and injured hundreds of others. Many people were forced from their homes due to structural damage and are in need of humanitarian assistance. The international community responded promptly to the emergency, providing humanitarian and technical assistance. The European Union provided financial aid to manage the emergency, and European Council President Charles Michel visited Albania to express the European Union's solidarity and to inspect the damage caused by the earthquake. The earthquake highlighted the region's vulnerability to natural disasters and the need to invest in shock-resistant infrastructure. It also highlighted the importance of regional cooperation in dealing with emergencies and improving response capacity. In conclusion, the Balkan earthquake was a tragic event that hit the region hard, but it also demonstrated international solidarity and cooperation in emergency management. We hope that the lessons learned from this event can be useful in improving the region's resilience and response capacity to future natural disasters.

Francesca Pasqualino

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Tunisia, the main opposition leader was arrested. Rachid Gannouchi, leader of the Islamist Ennahda party and main political opponent of Tunisian President Kais Saied, was arrested on April 20th after nine hours of interrogation. The eighty-three-year-old Gannouchi was accused of plotting against the State security and of inciting civil war. Several chancelleries, both in Washington and in Europe, have expressed their concern, triggering a harsh reaction from Saied. In a speech addressed to the nation, the President defined the Western intervention as a "flagrant and unacceptable interference in our internal affairs", stating that Tunisia “is a sovereign country which is neither a colonized state nor a mandated one".

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Turkey, uncertainty on the eve of the vote: During a TV event, the Turkish president had a sudden illness, probably related to his intestinal problems. After stopping campaigning for a few days, he took to the streets once again, gathering huge crowds in the country's conservative strongholds. The candidate of the United Opposition, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, managed to mobilise the squares in Izmir and Istanbul. Despite the difficulties faced by the ruling coalition of Islamists and ultranationalists, it seems that the presidential contest is on a razor's edge. The presence of the former front-runner of the Republican Party, Muharrem İnce, could take some crucial votes away from the current CHP candidate. It is therefore plausible to assume the need for a second round. Also the outcome of the legislative elections seems uncertain, with neither side certain to win a majority of seats.

(Michele Magistretti)

Michele Magistretti and Francesco Lorenzini

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

United States, new agreement with Mexico to tackle migration crisis. Following a meeting between Mexican President Obrador and the US Homeland Security Advisor last Tuesday in Mexico City, the two countries, which share more than 3,000 km of border, agreed to follow up on the agreement in principle reached last January between Obrador and Biden. On the basis of the latter, Washington will maintain an intransigent line on the expulsion of irregular immigrants from Latin American countries other than Mexico; migrants -approximately 30,000 per month- that the latter will undertake to accept in its territory. On the other hand, the United States undertakes to receive about 30,000 migrants per month, from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, provided they have a sponsor on their territory. The agreement also provides for a reinforcement of the border police by Washington: 1,500 new agents will be added to the 2,500 already present.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Belgium, seven arrests in anti-terrorist operation. Attempted murder for terrorism and preparation of a terrorist attack are the charges against the seven people, almost all of Chechen origin, arrested last Thursday in several Belgian cities. The operations were conducted as part of a federal prosecution led by an investigating judge specialised in terrorism from West Flanders. According to the federal prosecutor's office, those arrested are allegedly part of an ISIS-affiliated organization; they are suspected of having planned a terrorist attack in the country, although the charges have not yet been formally validated.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

EU, more ammunition will be produced to support Ukraine. On 3 May, the European Commission announced a plan (Act in Support of Ammunition Production - ASAP) to use EUR 500 million of the 2023 budget to increase the production of ammunition to support Ukraine's resilience and help member states replenish their stockpiles. ASAP is part of a plan, unveiled last March, which, among others, includes the allocation of EUR 1 billion to partially refund member states that have handed over their ammunition to Ukraine and a series of agreements to obtain weapons supply contracts between several countries. Further details of the ASAP plan are now awaited.

(Bianca Franzini)

Davide Shahhosseini and Francesco Lorenzini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Rocco Salvadori: Asia and the Far East

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa