Framing The World, CXI Edition

Framing The World, CXI Edition

In the new issue of Framing we deal with the United States, with Pence's trip to Ukraine and Washington's new relations with Beijing. We will also talk about the Wagner revolt in Russia and Biden's statements on the event. In Europe, we will focus on the riots in Paris and the failure to reach the pact on migrants. All this and more in the 111th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Belarus, human rights defender Nasta Loika sentenced to seven years. Teacher Nasta Loika, known for her human rights activities, was arrested on June 20th on charges of "incitement to enmity or social discord of a racial, national, religious, or other nature". The court verdict in Minsk came after a closed-door trial and administrative detention, resulting in a seven-year imprisonment in a penal colony for the woman. Nasta (Anastasia) is renowned for documenting the use of Belarusian anti-extremist legislation, and she has also been devoted to protecting foreign citizens and stateless individuals in the country.

(Sofia Ena)

Kyrgyzstan, attacks on media and freedom of expression. Kyrgyzstan’s parliament is about to pass two bills that would restrict freedom of speech and the work of the mass media. The first draft law would expand the definition of information harmful to the health and development of children to include information on 'non-traditional sexual relationships'. According to Human Rights Watch, this bill would sanction discrimination against lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people, in violation of international human rights standards. The second bill would designate all websites - including those of NGOs - as media outlets and require their registration or re-registration according to new, stringent procedures. These new requirements could be used by the authorities to silence critical voices and would prevent foreigners from being able to create their own channels of communication, Human Rights Watch said.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Malta, backward steps on abortion. Last November, the Maltese government introduced a bill allowing access to abortion if a pregnant woman’s life or health is in danger, without the latter risking criminal proceedings. On 28 June, this law was passed with amendments that reduced its effectiveness. Under the new law, a woman, whose health condition is seriously threatened and could lead to her death, will only be able to have access to an abortion after the consent of a medical commission of three specialists. As denounced by Amnesty International, this procedure will create dangerous barriers and delays that could put the lives of pregnant people at risk.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Serbia, released three Kosovo Police officers. Following EU-mediated talks between the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo, a Serbian court has released the three officers who were previously arrested in mid-June on charges of possession of weapons and explosives. According to Kosovo, the three officers were “kidnapped” within its territory, an accusation promptly denied by Serbia. This episode has further escalated tensions between the two countries, which have been involved in a longstanding territorial and political dispute.

(Sofia Ena)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

Europe, good performance for new cars. Positive results in May for the European car market, which saw the number of new cars sold increase by 18% to 1.12 million units, the 10th consecutive monthly increase. The reason for this is the performance of electric cars, whose sales increased by 66% thanks to improved conditions in the component supply chain after years of shortages and delays. In the first 5 months of the year, this type of vehicle accounted for nearly 14% of registrations, totaling more than 730,000 cars. Tesla also stood out, with sales doubling from the previous year, thanks to its aggressive price cuts.

UBS-Credit Suisse, staff cuts. After officially completing the process of acquiring its former rival, UBS announced the first staff cuts at Credit Suisse. The group led by Sergio Ermotti has put together a plan, not yet made public, to shed up to about 30 % of its workforce, about 35,000 fewer people largely from Credit Suisse's offices in London, New York, and some Asian locations, and save about $6 billion in personnel costs. UBS planned to cut much of the investment bank, while aiming to safeguard the private banking, derivatives, and structured finance divisions, though competing banks are snatching up the best resources in these divisions.

Inflation, positive signs but... Spanish inflation fell in June to 1.6 % from 2.9% in May, thanks largely to declines in energy and food, making Spain the first major European economy to fall within the ECB's target of 2%; however, the core index still remains at 5.9%, down 0.2% on the previous month. Italy, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands also show declining readings. In Italy, in particular, the drop is especially pronounced, from 7.6% in May to 6.4% in June (6.8% expected), while in France the figure fell from 6.0 to 5.3%. Bucking the trend, however, is the German figure, which re-accelerates slightly from 6.3 to 6.8 %. Finally, at the European level, the result was +5.5 %, down from 6.1% in June, but noteworthy is the re-acceleration of the core figure, from 5.3 to 5.4%.

UK, inflation is still high. In contrast to continental Europe, inflation in the UK seems unwilling to loosen its grip and in May remained at 8.7%, the same figure as in April (analysts were forecasting a slight drop to 8.4%), while the core index was even on the rise and marks a new record since 1982 at +7.1%. The Bank of England, given this data, opted to raise interest rates by 50 basis points to 5 %. At the same time, other data show that for the first time since 1961, public debt exceeded 100 % of GDP.

US, a good semester. Good news came from the U.S. economy, with the stock exchanges closing the second quarter with across-the-board rises of more than 1 % for the session and 16% and 32% for the semester, respectively, for the S&P500 and Nasdaq. First, all 23 financial institutions subject to the Federal Reserve's stress tests (a scenario with 10 % unemployment, a 40% collapse in real estate prices, and dollar appreciation) proved their soundness and were then able to announce, with the markets closed, dividend increases. GDP for the first quarter of 2023 was then revised upward, from +1.3% to +2.0% (expected +1.6%). Finally, data was also positive on the inflation front, with the PCE index up 3.8% annually in May (4.3% in April, at two-year lows) and 0.1% month-on-month (0.2% expected, 0.6% in April).

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Sierra Leone: the outgoing president wins the elections, violence breaks out. Violence erupted in Sierra Leone following the presidential election on June 27th, with incumbent Julius Maada Bio declared the winner with 56% of the votes. The leading opposition candidate, Samura Kamara, alleged that live bullets were fired at his office, and a woman was found dead under a window with a bullet hole in it. The National Election Watch, a coalition of civil society organisations, disputes the official results, estimating that Bio only received about 50% of the votes. Concerns have also been raised about more votes being cast than registered voters in some districts. The country, seen as a success story after its civil war ended in 2002, now faces potential donor withdrawal and possible ethnic violence amid opposition protests.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Mali: UN peacekeeping mission ends after ten years. The UN Security Council has voted to terminate its peacekeeping force in Mali, the deadliest of all such UN operations, after more than ten years and 187 peacekeeper deaths. The decision was driven by Mali's military regime, which insisted the 12,000 international troops must leave despite an ongoing security crisis. Once the UN peacekeepers have departed, Mali will rely more heavily on the Russian mercenary Wagner group for security. The departure of the UN force could exacerbate the security situation, with jihadist groups intensifying their activities and the mercenaries' hard-line approach potentially alienating local communities. The withdrawal of the UN force could also lead to further decentralisation in the north, where the Malian state and essential public services are largely absent.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Mali, an overwhelming majority adopts the new Constitution. On 23 June the data relating to the referendum for the adoption of the new Constitution of Mali were made public. With an overwhelming majority of 97%, the Malians approved the project presented by the leader of the military junta in power, Colonel Assimi Goita. However, the scrutiny was characterized by numerous irregularities, according to what was reported by the opposition. Large areas in the center and north of the country are also subject to violent clashes between the regular army and the jihadist rebels, making voting in these areas at least prohibitive. The new Constitution expands the powers of the President of the Republic, and it is considered by many to be an army's attempt to maintain power even after the presidential elections, scheduled for February 2024, despite Goita's promise to hand over the government to civilians after the vote.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Giulio Ciofini and Francesco Lorenzini

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America: Biden on the Wagner rebellion. After the mutiny of the Wagner Group in Russia, cause of a political crisis that threatened the stability of Vladimir Putin's regime, President Joe Biden rejected the possibility that the U.S. and Western allies were responsible for the rebellion: during a speech at a White House event Biden "made it clear that the West had nothing to do with" that. Some members of the American Government are sure about the fact that the rebellion weakened Putin's power in Russia, as stated by Kevin McCarthy, speaker of the House during an interview at Fox News. But even if the crisis seems settled, Biden outlined the importance for the U.S. and Western allies of being aligned in responding to the ongoing situation, always presenting a united front. "We are going to keep assessing the fallout of this weekend's events" said Biden during his speech.

United States of America: Pence trip to Ukraine. On Thursday the American Former Vice President Mike Pence surprised the news with a trip to Kyiv where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In an interview with NBC News, Pence said that he went to Ukraine as a private citizen, but seeing "the heroism of the Ukrainian soldier holding the line" boosted his resolve to do his part, calling "for strong American support for the Ukrainian friends and allies". Pence has always argued that Washington should increase the aids to Kyiv and speed up the approval of weapons drawdowns. Furthermore, the trip came with perfect timing since Ukraine is arranging a crucial counteroffensive while Moscow has to deal with the fallout of the Wagner Group's mutiny.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Guatemala, surprise first round. Sandra Torres and Bernardo Arévalo will face each other in the second round of the presidential elections in Guatemala on August 20th. Torres, 67, obtained the most votes, ensuring her party UNE (unidad nacional de la esperanza) the third participation in the electoral race. The surprise, however, is Arévalo, at the head of a citizens' movement born in 2015 from protests against the government. His main challenge will be to restore public confidence in a government that has so far been steeped in corruption.

Brazil, the former President Bolsonaro declared ineligible. The ruling of the Brazilian Supreme Court arrives: Former President Bolsonaro has been declared ineligible for 8 years. Bolsonaro was sentenced by five votes to two by the TSE on Friday (30/06) in the trial in which he was accused of committing abuse of political power and misuse of the media in the episode in which he met ambassadors from foreign countries to Brasilia in July 2022.

Ludovica Costantini

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

China and the United States agree to stabilize bilateral relations. Antony Blinken's visit to Beijing ended on Monday 19 June. With his arrival in the country, Blinken became the first US secretary of state to visit China since 2018. The visit was intended to re-establish diplomatic channels between China and the US and ease tension between the two countries. During his stay in China, Blinken met not only top government officials such as Qin Gang and Wang Yi, but also President Xi Jinping himself. The meeting with the Chinese president, in doubt until the end, lasted about half an hour and, according to President Xi, "The parties have made progress and reached common ground on some specific points", suggesting a easing of tension between China and the US. Blinken's visit had originally been scheduled for February but was later suspended indefinitely following the balloon crash.

Japan, Tokyo receives the Taiwanese Vice Premier. Cheng Wen-tsan's is the first visit by a Taiwanese vice premier to Japan in 29 years. The vice premier arrived in Tokyo on June 28 at the head of a delegation made up of government officials and businessmen. During his stay in Japan, the deputy premier met Taro Aso, former prime minister of Japan and now vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party (currently in government) and Toshimitsu Motegi, general secretary of the LDP and former minister of foreign affairs (a position he held between 2020 and 2021). Cheng declared that his trip to Japan was an important occasion to discuss topics such as economic exchanges, commerce, industrial cooperation, one of Cheng's greatest hopes is in fact being able to strengthen the industry (with particular attention to supply chains) of Taiwanese semiconductors. The visit of the vice premier could suggest a growing interest of Japan in its relations with the island, not only from an economic point of view but also from a security one, despite the risk of provoking a Chinese response.

Alessandra Tamponi

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

EU Council, approved free trade agreement with New Zealand. On June 27th, the EU Council approved a free trade agreement with Wellington, paving the way for greater economic integration between the two parties. The agreement entails the elimination of tariffs on exports of goods, industrial products, and food, promoting bilateral trade development and fostering increased investment. It is expected to come into effect by 2024, pending final approval from the European Parliament. What makes it even more significant is the inclusion of environmental and climate-related issues in its text, including sanctions for violations of the Paris Agreement. The European Union continues to expand its economic presence in the Indo-Pacific region, highlighting its global strategic importance.

(Sofia Ena)

EU, increased economic support to the European Peace Facility. The EU's Foreign Affairs Council has recently made a significant decision in the field of defense by increasing the funding for the European Peace Facility (EPF) by 3.5 billion euros. Seizing the opportunity amidst a weekend marked by instability within Vladimir Putin's regime, the leaders of the 27 member states have approved a second economic boost, bringing the EU's total budget for military and defense matters to 12 billion euros. Josep Borrell stated, "This is the time to support Kiev more than ever before."

(Sofia Ena)

Finland, extreme right in government. After more than ten weeks of negotiations, at the end of June, the government of Petteri Orpo (the leader of the National Coalition Party) received the investiture of Parliament after the elections last April. The new coalition government also includes the Finns, a far-right populist party that had been the second most voted in the elections. The Social Democrats, the party of former premier Sanna Marin, were excluded from the new coalition. Besides the Finns, the coalition includes the Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats. The new government programme includes stricter regulations on immigration and a reduced commitment to combating climate change.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU Council, no agreement on migration. Migration continues to be one of the most controversial topics of a European Council. During the last summit of heads of state and government in Brussels, Hungary and Poland prolonged the discussion and blocked the approval of a common position on the topic. Hungary and Poland contested the 8 June agreement on the reform of EU migration policy, which also provides for relocations of asylum seekers between EU countries. Charles Michel stated that the pact on immigration and asylum 'remains supported by 25 out of 27 states'; however, Michel pointed out that there was a strong signal of unity from the member states, despite the disagreements with Hungary and Poland.

(Bianca Franzini)

Bianca Franzini , Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino

France, new wave of unrest: Violent protests erupted in France after the killing of a teenager by police on Tuesday, June 27. About 150 people were arrested and public buildings were attacked. Cars and bins were set on fire, and protesters threw fireworks at police. President Emmanuel Macron urged calm, calling the clashes "unjustifiable" and convening a crisis meeting. The violence is worrying for Macron, who is still trying to overcome protests against his pension reform. Other French cities such as Toulouse, Dijon, and Lyon have been caught up in the unrest. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin condemned the violence as "intolerable" and expressed support for the police. Masked demonstrators attacked security forces in the region of the killing. Cars and garbage cans were set on fire, and graffiti demanding justice was thrown. In several districts, police fired flashballs to disperse protesters. Clashes also occurred in prisons such as Fresnes, where protesters attacked security with fireworks.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Russia, Wagner military group revolt marks a new Era: 16 months into the invasion of Ukraine, Putin found himself negotiating with Prigozhin, whose rebellious attitude caused internal tensions in Russia. Prigozhin's revolt against Russia's top defense leadership looked as if it could trigger a civil war or a collapse of the Russian power system. In the video released on Telegram, Prigozhin accused the Defense leadership of lying about the reasons for invading Ukraine and "deceiving" the Russian people. He argued that negotiations with Ukrainian President Zelensky could have prevented the conflict and dismissed Moscow's claims of an imminent Ukrainian offensive. Prigozhin pointed to the ambitions of some senior military figures, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, as the real reasons for the aggression. Despite initial accusations of treason by Putin, an agreement was reached through the mediation of Belarusian President Lukashenko, forcing Prigozhin to relocate to Belarus but leaving him free despite his attempt to overthrow Moscow's military leadership. This event marks a turning point for Putin, Ukraine, and Prigozhin, propelling Russia into a new era.

Montenegro, Turkey considered a "key" power in the Balkans: Montenegro's Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic praised Turkey as a "key country" in the Western Balkans and stressed its role in mediating between Serbia and Kosovo as "very important." Abazovic said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a leader capable of convincing the struggling parties in the Balkans to sit at the table and find sustainable solutions. He also said that Turkey's mediating role in the tension between Serbia and Kosovo is of great importance. Abazovic stressed that Turkey, considered a "superpower," maintains friendly relations with the whole world and that its steps in global diplomacy are valuable for the Balkan region. He expressed hope that President Erdogan will become more engaged in Balkan issues to ensure peace and stability in the region. Abazovic highlighted the progress in Montenegro-Turkey relations after Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Montenegro's independence in 2006.

Francesca Pasqualino

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Israel, a hot standoff: the violence in the West Bank has resumed in recent weeks. There have been new tensions in the occupied West Bank territories. On the one hand, there has been no lack of aggression by Israeli settlers against Palestinian residents. On the other hand, the Israeli Security Forces have neutralised a number of terrorist cells, also through the use of drones. According to some estimates, since the beginning of the year, the new spiral of violence has led to the death of about two hundred Palestinians, twenty-five Israelis, and some foreign tourists. In the meantime, even at the domestic level, the clash over the reform of the judiciary is not subsiding. Bibi seems willing to make some changes but clashes with the maximalism of his allies and the stakes of the oppositions. Netanyahu would be willing to recant on the part of the reform that would give parliament the power to annul Supreme Court rulings.

(Michele Magistretti)

Turkey, a new chapter in the Erdoğan era: although the Sultan triumphed again in the elections, he has to deal with an economy in shambles due to his own heterodox doctrines. So he decided to appoint an orthodox economist as finance minister and put the very young Gaye Erkan in charge of the central bank. The interest rate hike of about 6 points was of little use, the lira reached a new all-time low. Meanwhile, the diplomatic stalemate over Sweden's admission into the Atlantic Alliance continued. Moreover, after the blasphemous episode carried out by an Iraqi citizen in front of a mosque in Stockholm, the dossier seems to be becoming even more complicated. The president himself has publicly condemned the burning of the Koran, and it cannot be ruled out that he will exploit this event to increase his negotiating leverage with the Scandinavian country, whose anti-terrorism policy he already criticises, particularly with regard to PKK elements.

(Michele Magistretti)

Iraq, Swedish embassy attacked: an angry mob reached and then entered the Scandinavian country's embassy buildings in Baghdad. The protesters brandished placards and shouted slogans in defence of the Koran, the holy book burnt by an Iraqi asylum seeker in the Swedish capital. They were subsequently cleared by security forces. Fomenting the violent protest was the political movement of Muqtada al Sadr, a leading figure in the country's Shia community and winner of the last elections. The charismatic and unscrupulous Shia leader is always ready to ride the wave of domestic and international controversy to increase his own following and influence the country's politics.

(Michele Magistretti)

Tunisia, Kais Said frustrates European hopes.On Monday 19 June, Tunisian President Kais Saied declared that he did not want to turn Tunisia into Europe's coastguard. The comment came shortly after the meeting with the Ministers of Internal Affairs of France and Germany, who were visiting Tunis as part of the European Union's attempt to stop the arrival of irregular migrants across the Mediterranean. Tunisia has become in recent months one of the main transit countries for migratory flows from sub-Saharan Africa. Brussels is trying to offer Tunis economic aid to block departures and detain migrants. The North African country, however, is facing a profound economic crisis, a situation which makes peaceful coexistence between the indigenous population and the new arrivals difficult.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Sofia Ena, Michele Magistretti and Sara Oldani

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Hong Kong, a popular 'rebel' radio station closed. Citizens' Radio, famous for its critical stance against the Chinese government and its repressive policies, announced the permanent closure of all its broadcasts as of 30 June. It was Tsang King-shing, the station's founder, himself who pointed out that Beijing's intensifying oppression, starting with the introduction in 2019 of the National Security Law dictated by the latter, was behind this closure. Shortly after the entry into force of the same law, Citizens' Radio had been the target of an outright armed attack by a group of men who had damaged part of the station's equipment, all without the authorities intervening to identify the assailants.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Pakistan, agreement with the IMF found. After eight months of negotiations, Pakistan signed an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) through which it will obtain more than EUR 2.7 billion in financing. In 2019, the country had entered into an economic rescue programme financed by IMF loans, initially totalling around USD 6 billion, increased to USD 7 billion in 2022. The agreement, which requires the approval of the IMF board, allows for the release of the last part of the bailout package's funds and envisages gradual distribution over the next nine months. Pakistan is in its worst economic crisis since independence in 1947. According to forecasts at the beginning of the year, the country's dollar reserves, crucial for importing goods such as energy, raw materials and food, were in danger of running out within three weeks.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Rocco Salvadori: Asia and the Far East

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa