Framing The World, CXXII Edition

Framing The World, CXXII Edition

In the new issue of Framing we deal with the escalation in the Middle East, with the risk of the conflict spreading to the Lebanese front. On the Yemeni front, however, the attacks by the Houthi rebels threaten economic repercussions due to the slowdown in international trade. Changing continent, Milei's Argentina refuses to join the BRICS, supporting a neo-liberal approach. All this and more in the 122nd issue of FtW!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Iran, Execution of Samira Sabzian. On December 20, Iran carried out the death sentence of Samira Sabzian, a young child bride who had spent approximately ten years in detention. Convicted for the murder of her husband in 2013, at the age of just 19, Samira was a victim of a forced marriage that marked her life with years of domestic violence. Samira's execution marks the eighteenth case of women being hanged in Iran this year, bringing the total to 800. Iranian laws, allowing forced and early marriages, highlight a lack of protection for women who are victims of domestic abuse. This event once again raises international concerns about the human rights situation in Iran, particularly regarding justice and the protection of women.

Sofia Ena

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND FINANCE

EU, inflation rises again. After six months of consecutive declines, Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9 % in December, raising questions about how soon the ECB will start cutting interest rates. December's annual increase in consumer prices rose from 2.4% in the previous month, but remained below the 3% expected by economists surveyed in a Reuters poll. The reduction in government subsidies for gas, electricity and food, which began last year, triggered a re-acceleration of annual inflation in much of Europe. This has prompted investors to scale back their bets that the ECB will start cutting rates as early as March, undermining the recent rally in stock markets. But most economists believe eurozone inflation will soon start falling again, due to a further decline in food and core inflation, which in fact slowed, even in December, from 3.6% to 3.4%.

US, still more hiring. The U.S. labor market shows unexpected strength in December, adding 216,000 jobs, up from the downward revised 173,000 in November. The data also show that unemployment remained at 3.7%. The employment data are a crucial yardstick for the Fed, which must consider when to lower rates from the current 22-year highs, and appear to undermine the possibility of an interest rate cut as early as March, as initially expected by traders, thus driving markets lower and the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds to its highest level in nearly a month. However, the release of ISM data later the same morning, which indicated a slowdown in the U.S. services sector, reversed the previous market reaction and markets reversed earlier declines. In fact, the probability of a rate cut in March, as implied in the futures markets, after falling to 60 %, rose again to 80% after the release of the ISM data.

Oil, the forecast for 2024. According to most analysts, the price of oil, currently just under $80 per barrel, is expected to settle around an average of just over $90 during 2024. Specifically, the US Energy Information Administration predicts $93, Bank of America $90, and Goldman Sachs $94. These values on the one hand will held in check by the ample availability of additional production from non-OPEC countries, especially the U.S., which are not subject to the control of the producer cartel and thus ready to flood the market in the event of rising prices; on the other hand, they will be supported both by the U.S. government's promise to replenish its strategic reserves should the price fall to $72 per barrel, and by factors such as tensions in the Middle East, possible new U.S. sanctions against Iran, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Red Sea, inflation risk. The economic effects of Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea are not slow to be felt, despite U.S. intervention (see below). While oil tankers have not come under attack and continue to transit the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, the traffic of car-carrying ships, for example, has practically dropped to zero, from about 90 transits per month to only one in 2024 so far. The alternative route, which laps the Cape of Good Hope and has been chosen for all of their ships by the two leading container ship operators (MSC and Maersk), adds 4,000 miles and 10 days of navigation, while those who decide to use the Suez Canal have to contend with more than triple insurance costs. Overall, this represents an inflationary driver for the global economy, as visible in the freight price of a container between the U.S. East Coast and China, also due to constraints in the Panama Canal caused by drought, rising from $2,300 to $3900, though far from the record $20,000 touched in 2020.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Sudan, the civil war continues. Sudan’s army chief and head of state Abdel Fattah al-Burhan declared his will to continue the nine- month civil war between the military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), rejecting any peace prospect. The latter, formerly operated by the government of Sudan, has faced growing popular resistance and the RSF head Mohamed Hamdan Degalo eventually agreed to a ceasefire proposed by civilians. However, Burhan refused and declared that “the whole world witnessed these rebel forces committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in West Darfur and the rest of Sudan. For that reason, we have no reconciliation with them, we have no agreement with them”

Senegal, top opposition leader’s application to contest for presidential election rejected. Senegal’s Supreme Court on Friday ruled against opposition politician Ousmane Sonko in his quest to contest the presidency, on the basis that it was incomplete. "From the outset, the government has shown its willingness to invalidate Ousmane Sonko’s candidacy”, his lawyer, Ciré Cledor declared.

Sonko, 49, leader of the dissolved party Pastef, has been battling various court cases since 2021 and is currently in prison on a charge of defamation against a member of the government. Sonko finished third in the country’s 2019 presidential election and is considered the main challenger to President Macky Sall’s ruling party.

Aurelia Puliafito

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, Senator against Israel funds. The Senator of Vermont, Bernie Sanders, has requested Congress to block additional funds to Israel, defining the response to the “barbaric terrorist attack” from Hamas as “grossly disproportionate, immoral and in violation of international law”. The renewal of financial aid, according to Sanders, would therefore make American citizens complicit in “destroying the lives of innocent men, women and children in Gaza”. The Senator's criticism also extends to the dual decision made by the American government within the UN, where the United States first vetoed the Security Council's proposal to demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and subsequently abstained from voting on the resolution for an urgent and broad humanitarian truce.

United States of America, Iran supports the Houthi. On 1 January 2024, to counteract Washington's actions in the Red Sea against the Houthi rebels from Yemen attacking commercial ships in the area, Iran decided to deploy a warship. This decision by the Iranian government significantly complicates American control policy, aimed at avoiding escalation of the conflict and protecting merchant ships from rebel attacks, meant to demonstrate their support for the Palestinian cause. According to the Pentagon, the Houthis have already launched several attacks on ships, leading to the suspension of maritime transport group activities in the Red Sea area, which is crucial for 12% of global trade. For this reason, on January 3rd, the United States, along with 12 other states, warned the Houthi group that continuing their aggressive policy started in November 2023 would lead them to suffer the "consequences."

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Argentina, Milei's no to joining the Brics. In the group of emerging countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are joined by Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia. Argentina, which had shown interest in taking part in the alliance in the summer, did not respond to the call on 1 January. Weighing in the exclusion was the policy of newly elected President Javier Milei, an ultra-liberal extreme right-winger who is highly critical of Beijing and more oriented towards the United States. During last autumn's election campaign, Milei had not hidden his position on the Brics: 'I will not push for an agreement with the communists'.

(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)

Brazil, the recovery of a large debt to international organisations. 4.6 billion reais, or roughly more than EUR 854 billion, is the sum corresponding to Brazil's debt to international organisations such as the UN, the International Trade Organisation (WTO) and Unesco that has been repaid at the end of the year 2023. Debt repayment is an obligation for countries that incur it, but in this case the impression is that Brazil wants to show the commitment and capacity necessary to gain more importance and relevance in the international scenario, especially in view of its G20 presidency in 2024. Moreover, the payment of the debt, and thus the full payment of the necessary contributions, will allow Brazil to vote at the 2024 General Assembly of the United Nations. The country's desire is surely to improve its image, reaffirm its commitment to multilateralism and diplomacy in order to one day be a member of the UN Security Council.

(Serena Basso)

Alessandro Dowlatshahi and Serena Basso

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Tensions across the Taiwan Strait. Tensions across the Taiwan Strait are escalating, with the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense accusing China of threatening airspace security with aerostatic balloons. This action is part of a broader plan linked to the upcoming presidential elections, which will significantly impact bilateral relations. The deployment of these balloons for espionage activities has previously strained relations with the United States, highlighted by the incident in February 2023. Over the past four years, Taiwan has witnessed an increase in Chinese military actions, including fighter jet flyovers, aligning with a "gray zone" strategy aimed at destabilizing the island without triggering an outright conflict. The United States, a key supporter of Taiwan, has expressed concerns without providing detailed comments.

The door to dialogue between China and the Philippines remains open. Recently, two Chinese navy ships shadowed Philippine and U.S. vessels conducting joint patrols in the South China Sea. China asserts claims over almost the entire region, crucial for maritime trade valued at over three trillion dollars annually. Chinese sovereignty claims intersect with territorial assertions by the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague rejected China's claims, a verdict that China refused to accept. A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs labeled the recent joint patrols by the United States and the Philippines as "provocative" and "irresponsible." Nevertheless, Philippines' National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano stated that his country is open to diplomatic discussions with China and believes that disputes in the South China Sea can be resolved through peaceful dialogue.

Francesco Oppia

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Council of the European Union, Belgian Presidency kicks off. On 1 January 2024, Belgium took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union; this is the thirteenth time for Belgium, which will have this role until 30 June. The motto chosen by Belgium is 'Protect. Strengthen. Prepare." The country's objectives during this presidency include defending the rule of law, democracy and the union of the EU, pursuing a just green transition, protecting people and borders, promoting a global Europe, and strengthening the Union's social and health agenda. Other major topics on the table of the Belgian Presidency include the pact on migration and asylum, the review of the multiannual financial framework and the topic of Ukraine's possible accession to the European Union. Belgium is part of the presidential trio with Spain and Hungary.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, Approved the 12th Sanctions Package Against Russia. The European Union has rolled out its twelfth sanctions package against Russia, targeting the lucrative diamond sector, which annually yields $4.5 billion for Moscow. The restrictions entail an immediate ban on the import, purchase, and transfer of Russian diamonds. This measure applies to diamonds originating from Russia, whether exported or processed in third-party countries. Initial resistance from Belgium and the luxury jewelry sector has been overcome. Starting from March 1st, a phased tracking system will be introduced, mandatory from September 2024, to monitor diamonds processed abroad. The package further extends the import ban to products derived from Russian metals, including cast iron, copper, and aluminum, which were purchased last year for a total of €2.2 billion. These measures, coordinated with the G7, aim to weaken the Russian economy and curb military efforts.

(Sofia Ena)

EU, Romania and Bulgaria in the Schengen area. Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen area on 31 March 2024, but only partially, as border controls with other EU countries will only be removed at sea and air borders. The full entry of the two countries into the Schengen area is postponed until a later date, but in the meantime these measures will be implemented, after twelve years of negotiations. In the meantime, from the beginning of January 2024, the visa liberalisation regime between the EU and Kosovo came into force; citizens of the country will now only need a passport to enter the EU.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, new rules for removing illegal content on porn platforms: The European Commission has designated Pornhub, Stripchat and XVideos as 'major digital platforms' subject to stricter rules on the removal of illegal content online. These companies, along with Facebook, Instagram, Google and Elon Musk's Tesla, must now comply with stricter rules under the Digital Services Act, focused on protecting minors and combating the dissemination of illegal content. Commission Vice-President Margrethe Vestager welcomed the designation, emphasising the control and accountability of their algorithms and processes. The move aims to better regulate a notoriously deregulated sector, addressing concerns about ineffective age verification and the circulation of illegal material. New rules will come into effect in February 2024, with other sites such as OnlyFans and Telegram under scrutiny. The priority is to ensure a safer online environment for minors, compliant with the EU Audiovisual Media Services Directive. French law and other countries' approaches reflect the challenge in balancing age verification with privacy principles. Compliance with child safety standards will be mandatory for all platforms by February 2024.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Bianca Franzini, Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Albania, former minister Berisha accused of 'corrupt acts' during term in office: An Albanian court has placed former president and prime minister Sali Berisha, 79, under house arrest following an investigation into corruption during his term in office. Prosecutors accuse Berisha of abuse of influence during his tenure from 2005 to 2009, alleging that he favoured his daughter's husband in the privatisation of state land. Berisha has denied the allegations. Currently head of Albania's main opposition party, the Democratic Party, Berisha said she will fight the charge and continue to lead the opposition. The court decision restricted his movements with house arrest, without permission to leave the country. Berisha announced his determination to persist in the opposition, emphasising that nothing can separate him from his supporters. The situation follows the US restrictions on Berisha in 2021, citing his involvement in corrupt acts during his term as prime minister.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Serbia, SNP protesters break into Belgrade Assembly: Hundreds of Belgrade residents attempted to break into the city's Assembly building in a protest organised by the coalition Serbia Against Violence (SNP) against alleged irregularities in the recent general and local elections. Protesters broke through security barriers, damaged windows and doors in an attempt to enter. However, opposition leaders failed to open the front door. The crowd urged entry, but the police warned that forced entry constituted a criminal offence and dispersed the crowd with pepper spray. In response, President Aleksandar Vucic denied an ongoing 'colour revolution', assuring that he was seeking a peaceful solution without hurting the protesters. Preliminary results indicate that the Serbian Progressive Party obtained 39.34%, while the opposition coalition achieved 34.27% of the vote.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Czech Republic, President Petr Pavel supports the adoption of the euro. The President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, recently advocated for the adoption of the common European currency as a logical step for an export-oriented country like his. However, a report from the Czech Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance has advised caution regarding currency matters. Currently, the Czech Republic uses the Czech crown, but the president has expressed interest in taking concrete steps towards adopting the euro. Despite the president's belief that the common currency is the logical future, the government, led by the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), holds divergent opinions. A report from last November suggests readiness for eurozone accession in 2024 but recommends extreme caution, with certain factions of the government, particularly the ODS party, expressing scepticism about adopting the euro.

(Alessandro Alloro)

Poland, the new Prime Minister Tusk seeks to mend relations with Ukraine. Poland, initially one of the most supportive countries towards Ukraine since the outbreak of the conflict with Russia, has recently turned away due to alleged economic issues stemming from the import of Ukrainian cereals and the free movement of trucks within the European Union. The new Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, is working to find mutually agreed-upon solutions between Brussels and Kiev to ease the tension. Indeed, the European Union has an interest in swiftly reaching an agreement to prevent these disputes from influencing the political debate on aid to Ukraine, especially after the Hungarian veto delayed the decision on funding. Additionally, with the opening of negotiations for Ukraine's accession, the EU must balance solidarity with Ukraine and the need to avoid destabilizing its member states. The Polish crisis serves as a warning bell regarding the balance between solidarity and political cost in light of the upcoming European elections in June.

(Alessandro Alloro)

Francesca Pasqualino and Alessandro Alloro

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Turkey, between espionage and diplomacy: Ankara's public security authorities have arrested more than thirty individuals who have been linked to Israel's foreign secret services, the charge is espionage, and these individuals are probably linked to the espionage network that also monitors abroad members of Hamas, of which the Ankara regime is a known supporter and protector. While military manoeuvres against the Kurdish terrorist group PKK continue, the foreign committee of the Turkish parliament gave the green light for a vote on Sweden's accession to the Atlantic Alliance. The two governing parties, the Islamists of the AKP and the ultranationalists of the MHP, together with the Kemalists of the main opposition party, the CHP, voted in favour. The Scandinavian country's access to NATO remains a diplomatic bone of contention over the Turkish acquisition of new F-16s and in exchange for greater cooperation in counter-terrorism on the part of Stockholm.

(Michele Magistretti)

Lebanon, the killing of Saleh al-Arouri risks further widening the conflict. On January 2, the No. 2 of Hamas in Lebanon was killed by an Israeli drone in the southern outskirts of Beirut, in the "state-neighborhood" of Dahiye, a stronghold of the militia party Hezbollah and its allies, but at the same time a densely populated residential neighborhood. populated. In addition to al-Arouri, in fact, the drone killed 5 other people. The attack - which fits perfectly within the Israeli policy of action aimed at eliminating the main generals and leaders of Hamas - was strongly criticized by Hassan Nasrallah, general secretary of the "party of God", during his recent speech ; even the current interim Lebanese prime minister, Najib Mikati, condemned the Israeli action because it was "in violation of international law and the country's territorial sovereignty". The risk of further escalation in the region and the opening of a second front on the border with Lebanon is one of the options on the field. Nasrallah, however, is trying through a difficult game of checks and balances not to engage in direct warfare against the Israeli enemy, but if Israel continues to raise tension, Hezbollah will be forced to respond. These prospects, therefore, lead to a less optimistic climate regarding a resolution of the conflict in Gaza: the Arab diplomacies, following the Israeli operation in Lebanon, responded coldly and, in the Egyptian case, withdrew from attempts at mediation for a new humanitarian pause in the Strip.

(Sara Oldani)

Michele Magistretti and Sara Oldani

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

South Korea, new tensions with Pyongyang. More than two hundred artillery shells directed at Yeonpyeong Island, site of a South Korean military base, were launched by the Korean People's Army. Although no mortars reached South Korean territory, Seoul's military authorities opted to evacuate the island's inhabitants. The incident comes amid a huge deterioration in relations between North and South Korea: last December Kim Jong Un alerted his own General Staff about the risks of imminent conflict with his "neighbors." The North Korean leader himself, last November, had revoked the 2018 agreement aimed at an easing of military operations on the border between the two countries.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Iran, bombing attacks during commemoration for General Suleimani. ISIS has claimed responsibility for the two attacks in Kerman, where about 80 people were killed during commemorations marking the fourth anniversary of the assassination of General Qassem Suleimani, former leader of the Revolutionary Guards. According to statements on the Islamic State's official social channels, the bombers personally approached Suleimani's grave by activating explosive belts, debunking earlier reconstructions that spoke of remote detonations. Iran's Revolutionary Guards described the attack as revenge by its historic rival, with whom both the spiritual-religious rift and the military confrontation in Iraq and Syria have exacerbated its regional dualism over the past decade.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Davide Shahhosseini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandro Alloro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Alessandro Dowlatshahi: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa

Serena Basso: Latin America

Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union