Framing The World, CXXIV Edition

Framing The World, CXXIV Edition

In the new issue of Framing we deal with the presentation of the “Mattei Plan” during the Italy-Africa summit held in the Senate. Furthermore, we delve into the latest events regarding the Middle Eastern escalation. Remaining in Europe, we report the agreement on the standardization of AI. All this and much more in the 124th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Belarus, crackdown on dissent intensifies. On 23 January, the Belarusian authorities raided the homes of about 160 people, mainly relatives of people imprisoned for political reasons. Dozens of people were arrested on charges such as 'financing extremist activities' and 'participation in extremist groups'. Many of these detentions are related to the INeedHelpBY project, which helps people financially affected by political repression. Marie Struthers, Amnesty International's director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, expressed concern about the situation, saying that the targeting of families represents a disturbing escalation in the campaign to eliminate dissent in Belarus, which began after the disputed 2020 elections related to her commentary on a banned TV channel.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Thailand, Russian rock band at risk of persecution in case of deportation. The Thai authorities, under pressure from Russian diplomats, are considering deporting to Russia the members of the Russian rock band Bi-2, currently detained in Thailand. Since 25 January, the seven members of the band, who were arrested in Phuket for holding concerts without authorisation, have been detained in an immigration detention centre where they share a cell with 80 other people. Denis Krivosheev, deputy director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia at Amnesty International, urged the Thai authorities to adhere to the principles of non-refoulement. If deported to Russia, the Bi-2 members run the risk of criminal prosecution for opposing the invasion of Ukraine.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Hungary, the Case of Ilaria Salis. Ilaria Salis has been held in preventive detention at Budapest's maximum-security prison since February 2023, facing charges of aggravated assault against far-right protesters, capturing the attention of Amnesty International. The organization has highlighted the degrading conditions of her detention, relying on familial and legal testimonies. Criticisms encompass the lack of translation of legal documents and the absence of access to videos as incriminating evidence, violating the right to a fair trial. The disparity between the contested injuries and the absence of complaints from alleged victims raises doubts about the complete veracity of the accusations, emphasizing the need for a thorough and impartial investigation. Amnesty International calls for close monitoring of the case, aiming to ensure a fair and respectful human rights-oriented trial for Ilaria Salis.

(Sofia Ena)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

Big Tech, stock market boom. Technology stocks soared Friday on the back of strong results from Amazon and Meta, with the group that owns Facebook posting the largest increase in market value of any company in a single day. The stock, in fact, thanks to a 20.3% rise, increased its market capitalization by $197 billion to $1.2 trillion. In addition, Amazon also contributed to the optimism, closing up 7.9% after reporting extraordinary retail sales for the holiday season. Thursday's earnings reports from Amazon and Meta thus boosted confidence on Wall Street, now convinced that Big Tech can further boost profits by continuing to spend billions on artificial intelligence after thousands of jobs were cut last year.

US, growth above expectations. U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the final quarter of last year, clocking a stronger-than-expected 2023 for the world's largest economy. Despite the fact that the fourth-quarter rate was slower than the 4.9% expansion recorded in the previous quarter, the U.S. economy nevertheless beat expectations for a year when growth was expected to stagnate. The figure was substantially higher than economists' estimates, which averaged a 2% expansion, according to a Refinitiv survey. These figures, although provisional and subject to future revisions, indicate that the U.S. economy is headed for a soft landing, having reined in inflation without triggering a recession.

EU, between inflation and rate cut. Eurozone inflation slowed to 2.8 % in January, but net of energy and food costs, the decline was less than economists' expectations. The renewed decline in the inflation rate, after a brief rise to 2.9% in December, supports investors' expectations that the European Central Bank may cut interest rates as early as this spring. However, inflation in labor-intensive services has remained unchanged, which encourages the cautious approach of some ECB rate-setters, who have said they want to see signs of moderation in wage growth, which peaked at 5.3% last year, before cutting interest rates. However, the strength of the labor market, which even in December remained at an all-time low in unemployment (6.4%), is not going in this direction.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Western Africa, Ecowas loses three member states. The military juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have announced their exit from the Economic Community of West African States (Cédéao, in English Ecowas), which brings together 15 countries from Cape Verde to Nigeria. After a series of recent coups, the three countries are led by transitional governments in military hands. The decision to leave the regional organization can be traced to Ecowas' imposition of economic and administrative sanctions and the suspension of the three countries. In the case of Niger it had gone so far as to prospect military intervention to reinstate the deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum. In order to avoid this increasing isolation, in September 2023, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger formed a new organization, the Alliance of Sahel States.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Italy-Africa, the summit has ended amid lights and shadows. On January 29, the Italy-Africa summit was held in Rome, where Giorgia Meloni's government presented the "Mattei plan," which includes an allocation of 5.5 billion euros for initiatives aimed at the continent, with the goal of enabling young Africans not to leave their countries. In the Senate, the benches of Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Nigeria remained empty. The absence of Nigeria is worrying, according to Federpetroli President Michele Marsiglia: "(Nigeria) is among the most important countries in the energy field, and a few months ago closed a dispute with Italy and Eni on an international scale.”

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Republic of Congo, rangers accused of abuses. Serious accusations have been presented against the NGO African parks, active in twenty-two nature parks and protected areas in twelve countries around the world, on whose board of directors Prince Harry also sits. African parks is accused of employing rangers who committed beatings, rapes, and torture against indigenous peoples in the rainforests of the Republic of Congo and in particular in Odzala-Kokoua park, against Baka people.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Cameroon: The first anti-malaria vaccination campaign has begun. The RTS,S vaccine, approved by the WHO in 2021 and produced by GlaxoSmithKline, was tested in Kenya, Malawi, and Ghana, reducing the symptoms of severe malaria by 30%. In addition to Cameroon, 11 other African countries will start vaccination campaigns by the end of 2024 with the support of GAVI, aiming to administer 18 million doses to children. The increase in malaria cases in Africa is attributed to mosquitoes' resistance to insecticides, the ineffectiveness of drugs, and slowdowns due to the Covid-19 pandemic and regional conflicts. A new vaccine, developed by the University of Oxford, could be distributed in seven countries in 2024.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Sudan: Over 8 million displaced due to conflict. In response to the conflict in Sudan that began on April 5, 2023, between the army of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF, paramilitaries) of General Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, former deputy in the army, which has forced nearly 8 million people to flee, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, visited Ethiopia, praising the country's commitment to assisting Sudanese refugees. Grandi emphasized the urgent need for international support to aid these individuals and host communities. Ethiopia, already hosting nearly 1 million refugees from various countries and with 3.5 million internally displaced persons, requires critical financial support to cope with the over 100,000 Sudanese displaced already hosted.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Aurelia Puliafito and Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

US, the labor market is still strong. The U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, nearly double forecasts, a surprise that leads investors to lower expectations of an interest rate cut in March. Economists surveyed by LSEG had forecast an increase of 180,000 jobs for last month. In addition, new jobs created in December were revised upward from 216,000 to 333,000, while those in November were increased by 9,000 to 182,000. After the release of the data, investors downgraded the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates in March, which fell from 37% before the report's release to about 20%. A rate cut in May, on the other hand, went from being fully priced into an 88% probability. These data weakened markets somewhat, but thanks to the strong rally in technology stocks, the S&P gained 1.1% and hit a new all-time high.

Leonardo Aldeghi

LATIN AMERICA

El Salvador, just days to general elections. General elections are scheduled for February 4th to designate both the country's New President and Legislative Assembly. Re-election of the current president would be unworkable under the country's constitution, but provisions adopted by Bukele in 2021 led to a ruling that allows him to be released from this clause. At the moment the other candidates are Manuel Flores, once a member of Bukele's party, Joel Sanchez, Luis Parada, Javier Ranieri, and Marina Murillo. None of them seems to be able to overturn the popularity of current President Bukele, who belongs to the Nuevas Ideas party, a movement he created in 2018. Bukele resigned already a few months ago in anticipation of the elections in order to focus on campaigning. At the moment, it seems that his populist and anti-party strategy, applied since the beginning of his term, leads him today to be the candidate with the most support.

Serena Basso

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

The Philippines and Vietnam sign a cooperation agreement The Philippines and Vietnam have signed agreements to prevent incidents in the South China Sea and enhance cooperation between their respective coast guards in response to China's claims over the entire maritime area. Tensions in these waters, a crucial artery for global trade, escalated between Chinese and Philippine ships in 2023, raising fears of a broader conflict that could involve Washington, Manila's primary ally. Despite Chinese and Philippine officials agreeing this month to take steps to de-escalate tensions, Marcos expressed his concerns in Hanoi regarding long standing disputes and cited the increasingly aggressive actions of the Chinese coast guard.

Taiwan Elects Nationalist Candidate as Speaker Taiwan's parliament has elected Han Kuo-yu, former presidential candidate for the major opposition party, as the new Speaker. Han secured the position without an absolute majority; however, he garnered the support of two independent lawmakers, totaling 54 votes. Han is considered a somewhat controversial figure, viewed by some as a right-wing populist, and had previously been the defeated presidential candidate in the 2020 elections. Nevertheless, he remains popular within the nationalist faction, which maintains regular contacts with Beijing. China has not directly commented on Han's election, though the spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office urged the United States to "refrain from sending wrong signals to the separatist forces in Taiwan."

Francesco Oppia

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

United Kingdom, agreement with Rwanda suspended. On 22 January, after the lower house had approved the agreement on 17 January, the House of Lords rejected the ratification of the treaty with Rwanda, which provided for the transfer to Rwanda of migrants who had arrived in the UK. The treaty had been signed and strongly supported by Rishi Sunak. With 214 votes in favour and 171 against, the House of Lords passed a motion calling for the suspension of the treaty until it is officially proven that Rwanda is a safe country for migrants, as the guarantees provided by the treaty "are insufficient at present".

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, agreement on artificial intelligence rules approved. After lengthy negotiations, EU member states unanimously approved the agreement reached a couple of months ago between the EU Council and Parliament on rules on artificial intelligence. Europe is the first in the world to establish rules on artificial intelligence. The aim is to ensure that AI respects fundamental rights, environmental sustainability, the rule of law and democracy, enabling innovation and making Europe a leader in the field. While some governments claim that this law represents a milestone for Europe and beyond, others fear that it contains unclear rules that could slow down the development of the sector in Europe.

(Bianca Franzini)

Brussels, Farmers in Revolt. In Brussels, farmers and associations are protesting against the rising fuel prices and raising concerns about the sustainability of current agricultural policies. Following clashes during the European Summit, protests are spreading to Flanders, with highway blockades at the border. Belgian Prime Minister De Croo calls for dialogue, while the European Commission promises measures to reduce the bureaucratic burdens of the Common Agricultural Policy by the end of the month. Von der Leyen has also pledged a one-year extension to the exemption on the 4% fallow land obligation under the Common Agricultural Policy. The European Commission is seeking to establish a dialogue with farmers, addressing their concerns and finding mutually acceptable solutions. Tensions will be further discussed at the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

(Sofia Ena)

Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Belarus, PACE presents its vision for a democratic future in Belarus. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) voted to create a delegation of Belarusian democratic forces, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, to participate in the work of the PACE and appoint a general rapporteur for a democratic Belarus. Members of the Assembly expressed deep concern about the deterioration of human rights in Belarus after the 2020 presidential elections, describing the Lukashenko regime's repression of the Belarusian people as potential crimes against humanity. Tsikhanouskaya stated that without a free Belarus there can be no lasting peace in Europe and called for membership in the Council of Europe as a first step towards the European Union.

(Alessandro Alloro)

Kosovo, tensions rise with Serbia over the euro as only national currency. The EU special representative for the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, Miroslav Lajcak, has flown to Belgrade to ease tensions between Serbia and Kosovo after the latter's announcement to accept only the euro as its official currency and no longer the Serbian dinar. The small Balkan country, in fact, although not part of the European Union, has adopted the euro as its official currency since 2002 following an agreement with the EU aimed at stabilising the country's economy following the conflict in the 1990s. Lajcak's visit to Belgrade precedes the implementation of the Central Bank of Pristina's regulation making the euro the sole currency for transactions in Kosovo. The regulation allows the use of other currencies only in transactions between peers and in specific bank accounts.

(Alessandro Alloro)

Alessandro Alloro

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Iraq-Jordan, Iraqi militia bombardment and the US response: after months of continuous bombardment by Islamist militias allied with Iran at US bases between Syria and Iraq, the first attack has arrived which has proved lethal. After the attack on a base between the Jordanian and Iraqi borders, three US military personnel died and the number of wounded exceeded 50. After several days of preparation, Washington decided to respond by targeting more than eighty targets in the region. For the time being, the White House wishes to re-establish deterrence without having to clash directly with Tehran, which in turn does not seem to want to seek direct confrontation with the US.

(Michele Magistretti)

War in Gaza: spill-over effect on Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon. The prolonged conflict between Hamas and Israel has serious consequences on the economies of neighboring states. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank express concerns about the economic impact and isolation of these nations. Regional uncertainty has hit the tourism, transport and services sectors in these countries hard. UN estimates indicate cumulative losses of $10.3 billion in the first three months of the war, with costs expected to grow as the conflict continues. While Egypt and Jordan have access to IMF loans, Lebanon faces more serious challenges due to the political crisis and security instability on the border with Israel. If a permanent ceasefire is not reached quickly, the spill-over effects could increase and further exasperate the socio-economic conditions of countries already faced with difficult challenges.

(Sara Oldani)

Michele Magistretti and Sara Oldani

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

United States, sanctions against foreign companies linked to drone production. The White House has imposed a series of sanctions against four Iranian and Hong Kong companies, the latter involved in the production of drones and missiles, joined by a Hong Kong company linked to the export of Iranian products to China. Some of the sanctions also affect members of the Revolutionary Guards-Pasdaran-accused of conducting cyber attacks against American infrastructure. These measures block all property the indicted individuals own in the United States and prohibit American individuals and companies from conducting transactions with such entities.

United States, 40-year prison sentence for former CIA officer. A former CIA official, Joshua Schulte, has been sentenced to 40 years in prison for delivering classified documents to Wikileaks in 2017. According to New York prosecutors, Schulte provided 8,761 documents and computer tools used by the CIA to hack smartphones to Wikileaks. The U.S. Department of Justice called this action the largest data breach in CIA history. Schulte, who was arrested in 2017, was convicted Thursday of espionage, hacking, contempt of court and perjury to the FBI, as well as possession of child pornography.

Davide Shahhosseini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandro Alloro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Alessandro Dowlatshahi: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa

Serena Basso: Latin America

Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union