Framing The World, XCIII Edition
In the new issue of Framing the World, we deal with
All this and much more in the 93rd issue of Framing the World!
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran, high schools join anti-government protests. With the death of Masha Amini on 16 September last, protests had reached many universities in addition to the demonstrations in the streets. To these, on Monday, were added the high school students who demonstrated by taking off and waving their veils while singing choruses against the theocratic regime. In several cities, female students tore and trampled images of Khamenei, the supreme leader and most important political and religious figure in Iran. All this did not happen only within schools and universities as dozens of demonstrators blocked traffic in Shiraz, a city about 660 kilometers from Tehran.
Italy, the “live better” project has been launched. In Italy there are about six million people who suffer from depressive or anxiety disorders, but starting from October 1, access to psychological therapies will be easier for about 10 thousand people. Thanks to the initiative of the Social Security and Assistance for Psychologists, patients after having carried out a scientifically validated test will be able to undertake an entirely free therapeutic consultation course consisting of 10 to a maximum of 14 meetings. The project was created to contribute in the search for answers to these disorders that are not always treated in public services and whose resolution involves costs that are not accessible to everyone.
Chiara Giovannoni
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
Wall Street, a red alert. With the third quarter closing in the red, like the previous two, U.S. stock markets posted their worst losing streak since the 2008 crash. Thanks to a dreadful September (-12%, the worst in two decades), and sunk by Apple (projecting a drop in demand) and Nike (complaining about excessive inventory), the S&P500 ended the quarter down 5.3% and off 25% since the beginning of the year, the third worst performance since 1931. Moreover, this was the first quarter since 1938 in which the index closed negative after being up more than 10%. Finally, also alarming is the value of the capitalization lost, over $36 trillion, and the speed with which it vanished, since it equals what the stock exchanges had gained between May 2020 and the beginning of 2022.
Stock exchanges, still falling. After starting the week and the month with consistent rises, Wall Street veered into the negative in the wake of labor market data. Once again, in fact, good news is welcomed by investors as bad news: the creation of 263,000 jobs in September, above forecasts that estimated 250,000, and the drop in unemployment from 3.7% to 3.5%, pending the inflation readings released on Wednesday and Thursday, seem to leave a clear path for the Federal Reserve to raise rates again without fear of breaking the economy. The markets' reaction to this data was particularly heavy, with the S&P500 down by 2.8% and the NASDAQ by 3.8%.
Europe, inflation accelerates. Inflation data in the Eurozone show two opposing trends. On the one hand, countries such as Spain and France recorded substantial declines, dropping from +10.5% and +6.6% in August to +9.3% and +6.2% respectively last month, against economists' expectations; on the other hand, countries such as Germany and the Netherlands, mainly due to their greater exposure to natural gas price increases, suffered rates of 10 % and 17.1 % respectively, the data being affected by energy products (+43.9% in Germany, +114% in the Netherlands). As a whole, the eurozone records a 10% inflation rate for the first time in the historical series, beating economists' forecasts for the fifth consecutive month and making a further 75 basis point rise in interest rates by the ECB almost a foregone conclusion.
Oil, production cuts. After days of rumors, last Wednesday's OPEC+ meeting cut crude oil production of cartel countries by 2 million barrels per day to prevent market weakness looming due to the likely global economic slowdown, a decision sought by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf economies just two and a half months after the Biden-bin Salman meeting from which the president had obtained an increase in extraction. Given the current inability of several OPEC countries, especially in Africa, to meet their allocated quotas, the actual cut is in the range of 7-800,000 barrels per day. Still, it is significant that the measure was decided with Brent quoted at $90, a relatively high level, and more importantly, with the presence in Vienna of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak, something that makes the White House complain of OPEC's alignment with Russian positions.
Twitter, the saga continues. When we were just days from the start of court hearings to settle the matter of Elon Musk's acquisition of the social media company, and after months of allegations about bots and falsified data, the world's richest man displaced everyone and notified the company that he would comply with the April 14 offer for $54.20 a share and a value of $44 billion. The news sent the shares, initially suspended, up 22% to $52, very close to Musk's proposed price and a sign of optimism about a successful conclusion. The offer is, however, contingent on the suspension of the trial, something Twitter had opposed but has since been granted (until Oct. 28), and on obtaining some $13 billion in financing by several Wall Street banks, a condition that is far from certain given the changes in the financial situation since last spring.
Leonardo Aldeghi
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Burkina Faso coup. Ibrahim Traoré new president. He was an unknown face, Ibrahim Traoré, before he seized power in Burkina Faso in a military coup on September 30, becoming, at just 34 years old, the world's youngest head of state. The coup overthrew the previous government of Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, who had himself seized power in a coup in January 2022. Traoré, on that occasion, had supported Damiba's coup. Today, however, the large photos of Damiba hanging in the capital have been replaced with those of the new president in military uniform. The coup seems mainly motivated by a general discontent of the population, which has in fact largely hailed this regime change, and by the military, over the tragic terrorist situation in the country. Damiba in fact in the months of his rule was unable to deal with the jihadist threat that has dragged the country into a full-blown war. On the contrary, attacks against civilians and the military have increased. Traoré,after calling several times for a change of strategy from his predecessor, decided, pushed also by his men, to take over power himself. Finally, the coup in Burkina Faso fits into the broader struggle for influence between France and Russia in Francophone Africa, where former French colonies are increasingly turning to Moscow.
(Andrea Ghilardi)
Ethiopia, government agrees to participate in negotiations with Tigre rebels. Addis Ababa announced that it has responded favorably to the African Union's invitation to participate in peace talks with rebels in the Tigre region. Neither the date nor the location of the negotiations were specified, but , according to the Ethiopian government's communications service, they have reportedly already been decided. A tweet from a senior official close to the Ethiopian prime minister tweeted, "The government of Ethiopia has accepted this invitation, in line with our principled position regarding the peaceful resolution of the conflict and the need for talks without preconditions." After a five-month truce, which had pushed the parties toward peace talks, fighting resumed on Aug. 24 between the Ethiopian Federal Army, supported by forces from neighboring regions and troops from neighboring Eritrea, and rebels from the autonomist northern region. By many observers, the conflict is seen as a clash between PM Abiy's attempt to overcome the current ethnic federalism and the resistance of an ethnic group, namely the Tigrinya, which despite constituting only about 6 percent of Ethiopia's nearly 120 million people is not resigned to a downsizing of the political-economic hegemony it had wielded over the whole of Ethiopia for nearly three decades until 2018.
(Andrea Ghilardi)
Rwanda: US$310 million agreement reached with the IMF. The International Monetary Fund announced that it reached a staff-agreement with Rwanda last Friday on a loan of $ 310 million in order to support the country in the fight against the effects of climate change and in the implementation of structural economic reforms. The agreement must be approved at the IMF Council meeting this December. The Rwandan Government appears to be committed to strengthening the national economy through monetary policies and a realignment of its budget.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Lesotho: General elections were held on 7 October. Following the failure of the previous political class to approve constitutional reforms, the population of the small country of Lesotho was called to elections. There are three main parties, the ABC (Al Basotho Convention), the DC (Democratic Congress), and the RFP (Revolution for Prosperity). About 2 million people are expected to take the seat in the hope that the next government will put an end to this protracted crisis of instability following numerous attempts at coups and the weakness of the monarchy where, however, the King Letsie III no longer holds any power.
(Giulio Ciofini)
Andrea Ghilardi and Giulio Ciofini
NORTH AMERICA
Usa: national debt on the rise. The US gross national debt exceeded $ 31 trillion for the first time. This was revealed by a report from the US Treasury. The figure grew following a long period of very low interest rates, which fueled loans from a sustainability perspective. The picture is likely to increase following the Fed's rate hike for love, with loans becoming more and more expensive.
The virologist Fauci leaves his post. Joe Biden announces that Antony Fauci, the Italian-American virologist who has become the face of the White House's response to Covid in recent years, will leave his post at Niad, where "for almost four decades he was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. ". "Thanks to Dr. Fauci's many contributions to public health, many lives have been saved," Biden said in a statement released by the White House.
Biden pardons convicted of marijuana possession. US President Joe Biden has announced that he will pardon all federal convicts for crimes related to the use and possession of cannabis. "As I have often said during my presidential campaign, no one should be in prison just for using or possessing marijuana," continued the Head of the White House. Thousands of American citizens will benefit from the measure even though those convicted of sales and distribution crimes will not be pardoned.
Federico Pani
LATIN AMERICA
Brazil, the country that goes to the ballot. On 4 October, Brazilian voters were called to the polls for the presidential elections: the clash was between Lula, the former President candidate with the Partido do trabalhadores, and Jair Bolsonaro, the current President of the country. The former President collected just over 48% of the votes, while the opponent stood at 43%: neither of them reached the 50% needed to be elected in the first round, and now the Brazilians have 4 weeks to decide. who to vote in the ballot to be held on the 30th of this month. Simone Tebet, a center-right candidate who finished third in Sunday's elections with 4% of the votes, and former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso have both announced that they will support da Silva.
Colombia, dialogues with the ELN resume. The Colombian government of Socialist President Gustavo Petro and the National Liberation Army have announced their willingness to resume talks to reach a peace agreement. There had been several attempts in the past, but the talks have now been at a standstill for 4 years. After meeting in the Venezuelan capital, representatives of the Colombian government and the ELM issued a statement stating that the start date of the peace talks will be announced after the first week of November. The statement also added that Norway, Venezuela and Cuba would be "guarantors" in the talks and that the participation of civil society groups would be "essential" to the success of the peace talks.
Ludovica Costantini
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
Thailand, a former policeman kills 25 children. In Thailand, a former policeman broke into a nursery school in the north-east of the country, targeting both children and adults. In total, 35 people have lost their lives in this attack, of which at least 25 are children under the age of three. The killer also killed his wife, son and finally decided to take his own life.
Hong Kong, five teenagers sentenced. In 2020, the national security law was introduced in the country, which has a very wide range of action and allows the persecution of demonstrators. This is the first time the law has been used in court against minors under 18: the five boys were sentenced to three years in Hong Kong for supporting the overthrow of the Beijing government. The court ruled that the defendants had used social media and street stands to support a “bloody revolution” to overthrow the Chinese state in the former British colony.
Ludovica Costantini
WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
Denmark, early legislative elections on 1° November. Denmark’s Social Democrat Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, after a threat of no-confidence from one of the coalition parties, has announced that parliamentary elections will be held early on 1° November. The ongoing crisis also seems to be due to the tensions, still very much felt, related to the allegedly illegal culling of fifteen million mink at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in Denmark. For now, according to early predictions, there will be a head-to-head between the centre-left and the far-right alliance.
European Political Community, first summit in Prague. Last Thursday and Friday, in the capital of the Czech Republic, the European Political Community met for the first time: it was a summit enlarged to include European countries outside the EU (excluding Russia and Belarus), strongly desired by French President Emmanuel Macron. During the meetings, peace and security, climate, energy and the economic situation in Europe were discussed. At the European Council on 20 and 21 October, summaries of the proposals discussed during the Prague summit will be presented. Especially awaited are the decisions taken on the energy crisis; this is an important issue, which could represent, according to some, the last chance for Europe to act united.
EU, new European sanctions on Russia. On 5 October, EU countries reached agreement on a new sanctions package against Russia proposed by the European Commission. The new sanctions include a ceiling on the price of oil imported from Russia and bans on the import of various goods. According to the Commission, this eighth sanctions package is expected to cost Russia around EUR 7 billion each year. All governments of EU countries approved these sanctions, despite fears of unfavorable votes, given the difficulties during the approval of the embargo on Russian oil imports.
Bianca Franzini
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
Elections in the Balkans. Various Balkan states are preparing to vote to elect their own presidents. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, citizens voted on 9 October, in a national context marked by debates on ethnicity, inflation and the energy crisis. Bulgaria has just elected its president, Bayko Borisov, who has tackled a mainly pro-European agenda; the Bulgarian political system, especially the Parliament, remains quite fragmented due to the lack of a stable majority. Slovenia, on the other hand, is preparing for national elections on 23 October.
Serbia, Russian referendums not recognized. Serbia has announced that it will not recognize the results of the Russian referendums which would allow the de facto annexation of the territories of eastern Ukraine. The reason for the aforementioned decision would seem to concern the dispute with Kosovo, in fact violations of international law and the territorial integrity of the Ukrainian state have been cited. Serbia was criticized by the European Parliament after Serbian Foreign Minister Nikola Selankovic met with his counterpart, Russian Sergei Lavrov in New York to discuss a consultative plan. To conclude, even though Serbia has officially condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations, it refuses to proceed with the use of economic sanctions against Putin's regime.
Francesco Andrea Rossi
MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Libya, new agreements and new discord. A large delegation of the Turkish government made a trip to Tripoli to sign a new agreement with the government of Abdulhamid Dabaiba to deepen cooperation in the hydrocarbon sector. Present at the signing were the Turkish Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Defence, Energy and Trade. This confirms the importance of the North African country in Ankara's regional strategy. Immediate criticism came from the European Union, Athens and Cairo. The agreement in fact follows the previous memorandum of understanding between Tripoli and Ankara, which, however, does not respect the law of the sea and formally infringes on Athens' sovereignty. For now, there has been no official stance from rival Bashaga and his ally Haftar, the Cyrenaica strongman. Meanwhile, Moscow seems to be trying the path of rapprochement with Tripoli and there are rumors about the possible reopening of the Russian embassy there.
(Michele Magistretti)
Yemen, end of the truce between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition. UN special envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, said the ceasefire expired on Sunday 2 October and was not renewed due to the unwillingness of both sides. The brief truce, signed on April 2, had allowed a slight improvement in the living conditions of the population, exhausted by conflict, hunger and diseases such as cholera. The diplomat Grundberg tried both from the Gulf countries and from the Shiite rebels for a recomposition of the truce, but in vain: the pro-Iranian militia that controls the capital Sana'a and a large part of the territory of the Yemeni peninsula threatened a resumption of hostilities against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It is feared that the failure of diplomatic talks could lead to the rekindling of a conflict, which broke out in 2014, which caused the worst humanitarian crisis in the world according to the UN.
(Sara Oldani)
Sara Oldani and Michele Magistretti
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Somalia, one of the founders of the al-Shabaab jihadist group has been killed. In recent weeks, the Somali army has launched a military operation aimed at regaining land at the expense of the terrorist movement linked to al-Qaeda: thanks to the contribution of foreign support and local militias, with excellent knowledge of the territory and guerrilla techniques, about 40 villages under jihadist control have been recaptured. Abdullahi Nahir, one of the founders and probably future leader of al-Shabaab, was also killed in the operation. The reprisal by the "Youth Party", however, was not long in coming: a series of attacks shocked Beledweyne, a central area of Somalia, in which there were at least 20 victims and about 36 injured.
(Sara Oldani)
Ethiopia, start of peace negotiations between government forces and Tigré separatists. The invitation to sit at the negotiating table had been issued by the African Union - an intergovernmental organization comprising all the countries of the continent recognized by the international community - an invitation to which the government in Addis Ababa responded favorably. Talks between the two sides in the dispute are scheduled to begin this weekend in South Africa, with Olusegun Obasanjo and Uhuru Kenyatta, former presidents of Nigeria and Kenya, respectively, among the mediators. However, some spokespersons for the separatist forces have already expressed strong doubts about the effectiveness of the negotiations, in particular expressing distrust of a number of outside mediators and observers called to take part in the talks.
(Davide Shahhosseini)
Syria, three key ISIS members killed. Three high-profile members of the Islamic State were killed in two separate airstrikes carried out in northeastern Syria, according to sources close to the U.S. military's Central Command (CENTCOM) - which heads operations in the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia -. In the first attack, Rakkan Wahid al Shammri, who according to CENTCOM was in charge of trafficking weapons and fighters on behalf of ISIS, was killed. In the second attack, Abu Hashum al Umawi, a local ISIS leader, and an associate of his whose name was not released, were killed.
(Davide Shahhosseini)
Davide Shahhosseini and Sara Oldani
Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.
Andrea Ghilardi: Western Europe and the European Union, Sub-Saharan Africa
Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union
Chiara Giovannoni: Human Rights
Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security
Elisa Maggiore: Latin America
Federico Pani: North America
Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa
Laura Salvemini: Asia and the Far East
Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance
Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights
Ludovica Costantini: Latin America
Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa
Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Samuele Abrami: Middle-East and North Africa
Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa, Terrorism and International Security