Framing The World, Edizione XCVIII

Framing The World, XCVIII Edition

In the latest FtW we analyze the Iranian crisis and the news of the first executions among protesters. Next, we describe the US-Africa summit and the growing geopolitical role of the African continent. Finally, we deal with the Qatargate and the scandal in the European Parliament.

All this and more in the 98th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Human Rights Day was celebrated on December 10. Human Rights Day has been celebrated every year since 1950, when Resolution 423 (V) set the date of 10 December, the date on which the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) in 1948. The slogan chosen for this year, 'Dignity, Freedom and Justice for All', echoes the preamble of the UDHR which highlights the “recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world”. Ahead of its 75th anniversary next year, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights will launch a year-long campaign to showcase the UDHR by focusing on its legacy, relevance and activism.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Iran, two death sentences carried out in one week. On December 12, Mizan News, the judiciary news agency, published pictures of the death sentence of 23-years-old Majidreza Rahnavard, who was arrested during protests triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini. The execution came just days after that of Mohsen Shekari, 23-years-old, who was hanged after being found guilty of 'declaring war on God'. The Iranian regime does not seem to want to stop and has already announced new sanctions against 10 individuals and 5 European entities. The condemnation of all human rights organizations is strong, calling on “the international community to take all necessary measures to pressure the Iranian authorities to stop executions and quash death sentences”.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

USA, the governor commutes 17 death sentences. On Tuesday, 13 December, Governor Kate Brown announced that she would cancel the judgements of all 17 individuals on Oregon’s death row to life in prison. “I have long believed that justice is not advanced by taking a life, and the state should not be in the business of executing people — even if a terrible crime placed them in prison,” Brown said in a statement sent out in a press release. "The death penalty is immoral". This is the seventh US governor in the last 50 years to commute all death sentences in one state. However, Oregon remains one of 27 states in the US that authorizes the death penalty, despite the last execution took place in 1997.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

Fed, just as expected. As widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by an additional 50 basis points, slowing the pace after four consecutive 75-point increases to a range of 4.25 to 4.5 %, the highest since 2007. The “dot plot”, the chart outlining the long-term forecasts of the Fed's board members, now predicts that rates will reach 5.1 % in 2023 and will not be lowered before 2024. Once again, Chairman Powell warned that rates will remain high until inflation drops consistently and that the effort to combat it will require a "sustained period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions," although this will not necessarily cause a recession.

Europe, higher rates and QT. Just as overseas, both the ECB and BOE raised benchmark rates by 50 points, and they, too, reached their highest levels since 2008, at 3.5 and 2%, respectively, and slowed from previous increases of 75 points after the first signs of slowing inflation. The ECB's Governing Council also specified that rates will rise until the 2% inflation target is reached, which is not expected until 2025 at the earliest, and that the so-called Quantitative Tightening, or the reduction of the ECB's balance sheet, to the tune of €15 billion per month will begin in March. ECB President Christine Lagarde, for her part, suggested instead that anyone who thinks this decision is a change of course in the fight against inflation is mistaken, adding that the 50-point hikes will continue for "a period of time" and that the Bank has more of a way to go than the Fed.

FTC, deals under scrutiny. The Federal Trade Commission has announced its intention to file a lawsuit to block Microsoft's acquisition of Activision, the $70 billion deal announced last January that would allow Microsoft to become the third biggest company in the video game industry. The FTC, despite Microsoft's efforts to prove otherwise (see the deal signed with Nintendo), believes that the Redmond giant could limit competition by manipulating prices and lowering the quality of products on rival consoles. Meta Platforms' purchase of virtual reality developer Within is also under scrutiny for violating antitrust laws, as is the $25 billion deal between Kroger and Albertsons, two of the largest grocery store chains in the US.

FTX, the arrest of the former CEO. A little over a month after the collapse of FTX, and after a public relations campaign to apologize and try to explain what happened, Sam Bankman-Fried has been formally indicted by a federal grand jury on eight counts, including wire, securities, and commodities fraud, money laundering, and campaign finance violations. At the same time, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed a civil lawsuit alleging fraud on investors, from whom at least $1.8 billion was allegedly embezzled. The severity of the charges is such that Bankman-Fried faces a maximum of 115 years in prison if convicted and if he fails to strike a plea deal. Bankman-Fried is now under arrest in the Bahamas pending a request for extradition to the U.S. and has been denied bail.

Aviation, return to profit. After losing tens of billions of dollars between 2020 and 2022, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that the airline industry will return to profit in 2023 thanks to growth in demand, which is estimated to return to 85.5 % of 2019 levels, while revenues will be up to $250 billion, up 25% from 2022 but still about $50 billion below 2019 levels. The highest profits will be in North America, Europe and the Middle East, while Asia-Pacific and Latin America are expected to register losses. In parallel, United Airlines announced the purchase of 100 Boeing 787s between 2024 and 2032 and an option for 100 more, the largest order for this type of aircraft in U.S. aviation history, as well as confirming the purchase of 44 737 MAXs and ordering 56 more.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

South Africa, President Ramaphosa avoids impeachment. South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa managed, thanks to a united vote of support from his party (African National Congress-ANC), to avoid a vote of no confidence in Parliament and avoid the start of an impeachment process. In fact, at the December 13 special session, 214 of ANC's 230 MPs voted in support of him. In contrast, 148 MPs voted in favor of impeaching the president, mostly members of the opposition. Ramaphosa was accused, of the former national intelligence chief, of hiding more than $5 million in cash, which was previously stolen from him in 2020, in a sofa and other furniture on a farm he owned. Ramaphosa allegedly not only hid the money, but also identified the thieves of that sum, had them kidnapped, and then induced them, with threats and offers of money, not to reveal details about the theft. The vote in favor of the president immediately caused fierce criticism from oppositions. Julius Malema, leader of a far-left opposition party, said following the vote, "Today is a sad day for democracy in South Africa, there is no reason to vote against an investigation that would have exposed the President's crimes."

(Andrea Ghilardi)

Ivory Coast, first national photovoltaic plant. It is an important step that Côte d'Ivoire is taking in the direction of greener energy production. Indeed, Côte d'Ivoire's Director General of Energy, Noumory Sidibé, explained that "after experimenting with fossil fuels and hydropower, Côte d'Ivoire, which has great potential in renewable energy, is preparing to commission its first solar plant, thus signaling its intention to vary its energy mix as much as possible." Indeed, the country is preparing to commission its first solar plant , located in the north of the country, specifically in Boundiali. The project has developed as part of a larger national plan to make the country a West African energy hub. To date, nearly 7,000 projects are in fact underway, with nearly 2.5 trillion in financial resources mobilized, according to Sidibé.

(Andrea Ghilardi)

Burkina Faso: Diplomatic tension with Ghana is growing. Recently, tensions have increased between the government in Accra and the military junta in Ouagadougou. Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo, during the meeting with the State Secretary, Antony Blinken, expressed his concern towards the authorities of Burkina Faso guilty of having invited some Russian mercenaries to the country of the now well-known Wagner group. According to Akufo-Addo, "the Russian mercenaries are located north of our borders, and it is really worrying." As a result of these statements, the ruling military junta in Ougadougou has summoned the Ghanaian ambassador to Burkina Faso to express its disappointment about words that they believe are incorrect. In the complaint, President Akufo-Addo spoke of alleged negotiations between the Russian mercenaries and the Burkinabé junta observing how the same story could be repeated recently seen in Mali.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Andrea Ghilardi and Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

Fed, just as expected. As widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by an additional 50 basis points, slowing the pace after four consecutive 75-point increases to a range of 4.25 to 4.5 %, the highest since 2007. The “dot plot”, the chart outlining the long-term forecasts of the Fed's board members, currently predicts that rates will reach 5.1 % in 2023 and will not be lowered before 2024. Once again, Chairman Powell warned that rates will remain high until inflation drops consistently and that the effort to combat it will require a "sustained period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions," although this will not necessarily cause a recession.

(Leonardo Aldeghi)

US-Africa Summit: In the closing speech, Biden discusses "All-in" on the African future. The summit between the United States and the African countries ended on December 15 with the closing speech by the US President Joe Biden announcing that Washington would add an additional $2 billion in humanitarian assistance to address the rampant food insecurity on the continent. The summit, which lasted three days in the American capital, saw the presence of 49 African countries and as many leaders who participated in public discussion sessions and bilateral meetings. The meeting topics were many, but food insecurity and energy were the most significant ones.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Ftx founder arrested. Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and former CEO of bankrupt cryptocurrency trading platform Ftx, has been arrested in the Bahamas. The American media report it. Bahamian Attorney General Ryan Pinder said the United States filed unspecified criminal charges against Bankman-Fried. The Bahamas will "immediately" extradite Bankman-Fried to the United States, once the charges against him will be made public and US authorities will have made a formal request.

(Federico Pani)

Biden signs law protecting gay marriage. The American president has signed in a law the provision that protects same-sex marriages at the federal level. The text was passed last week in the House of Representatives. Today is a good day. Today America takes another step towards equality. Toward freedom and justice not just for some, but for all,” Biden wrote on Twitter.

(Federico Pani)

Obtained energy from nuclear fusion. According to the Washington Post, scientists at the National Ignition Facility are the only ones so far to have obtained more energy from a reaction of this type than that used to trigger it. A turning point that could finally make it possible to master a technology without radioactivity or waste, unrelated to rare fuels or which can also be used to build atomic bombs. The official announcement tomorrow by the US authorities.

(Federico Pani)

Federico Pani, Leonardo Aldeghi and Giulio Ciofini

LATIN AMERICA

Peru, the country is welcoming its new president. The Andean country of Peru is welcoming its new president, Dina Baluarte, who at the same time is the first female president of the country. Baluarte, fluent in Spanish and Quechua, won the national elections against the left-wing candidate Pedro Castillo, and she is ready to replace him after 17 months of his presidency. However, protests were spreading around the country after the ouster of the current president, Castillo, while he is under a seven-day arrest by the Peruvian supreme court for a corruption scandal.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Mexico, authorities express concern about the violence in the country. The country has seen a sad record this year as more than 26.000 murders have been registered despite the effort by the Mexican president, Andrés Obrador, to decrease violance with a military strategy. The reason for this violence are the organized crime groups, and it looks like that the most hitten regions are the ones in the pacific coast. Falko Ernst, a Mexico analyst for the international crisis group, has declared that there is the false myth that Mexico is far from an armed and lethal conflict, but the level of homicides in the country is declaring the opposite.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Francesco Andrea Rossi

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

China, the U.S. adds 36 Chinese companies to the trade blacklist.

In another effort to slow China’s development of advanced chips and technologies for military uses – such as hypersonic weapons – the U.S. has placed 36 Chinese companies on the U.S. Department of Commerce’s trade blacklist. This means that American companies will require hard-to-obtain licenses to export critical technologies to Chinese customers. A “foreign direct product rule” was also applied to 21 entities, which means that non-American companies will be prohibited from exporting products containing a specific amount of U.S. technology to Chinese companies. Among the targeted companies there is the well-known Yangtze Memory Technologies, one of China’s largest memory chip producers, accused of violating U.S. export controls by supplying to the Chinese Huawei. These actions come just two months after Biden’s administration had announced the severe export controls designed to slow Beijing’s military modernization by preventing China from developing high-end chips and from obtaining the tools required to manufacture them domestically.

(Laura Salvemini)

ASEAN, Brussels hosts the first EU-ASEAN summit.

On Wednesday, December 14th, the first ever EU-ASEAN summit was held in Brussels. The European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen, opened the meeting with a speech that remarked the values shared between the two organizations despite “the many kilometers” among them. She defined the destinies of the two organizations as “tied” by a strategic partnership consisting of economic and commercial ties for which a growth is expected in the near future. The digital transition and the fight against climate change were defined as the challenges to fight in the future, while the current Ukrainian crisis was mentioned in the final document in which both parties recognized and reaffirmed the need to respect national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

(Laura Salvemini)

India, clashes with Chinese troops on the disputed Himalayan border.

Clashes occurred between Indian and Chinese troops on the disputed Himalayan border in what is the first incident between the two powers in nearly two years. A statement from the Indian Ministry of Defense announced that soldiers from both sides sustained minor injuries during last Friday’s clash, no fatalities were registered. The Himalayan border separates the two countries for 3,379km and has been a source of friction between the two for a long time. Tensions resurged in June 2020, when fighting along the border had resulted in 24 casualties. After the recent clash, India’s Defense Minister Singh accused the Chinese Army (PLA) troops of acting unilaterally to change the status quo by attempting to cross the border. China has not yet acknowledged the incident.

Laura Salvemini

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Denmark, agreement reached for the formation of the new government. More than a month after the parliamentary elections won by the center-left coalition, Mette Frederiksen, who will still be prime minister, announced that she has concluded negotiations to form the new government and met Queen Margrethe II in Amalienborg. Frederiksen will head a grand coalition, led by the Social Democrats party (of which Frederiksen is a member), together with the center-right Liberal party. This is the first time in more than 40 years that there will be a coalition between the center-left and center-right in Denmark: in recent decades, in fact, Liberals and Social Democrats have always alternated in minority governments.

The new government, which will have to make several compromises, has already unveiled some ideas and ambitions: to pass sweeping reforms (so much wanted by several Danish industrial groups), address the climate crisis, and increase employment.

European Union, a new mechanism has been adopted with the aim of greening industrial imports. For the first time, the European Parliament and the member states will adopt an environmental duty, a tax that affects industrial goods imported into the Union that have produced carbon emissions. The goal of the carbon border adjustment mechanism is to apply the same CO2 cost to foreign and European companies, thus adjusting imports in various sectors (aluminum, steel, hydrogen and hydrogen products, electricity, cement, fertilizers) to the standards set by the Union. As for the entry into force of the Border Carbon Tax, the reform of the harmful emissions market is awaited.

European Union, bribery scandal and "Qatargate". The Brussels Judiciary reported that a Gulf country-which was later identified by several international news outlets as Qatar-had allegedly tried to influence the European Parliament's positions in its favor by handing over sums of money to several figures within the Parliament, mainly from the Socialist Group. Thus, bribery of officials and members of the bodies of European institutions and foreign states, money laundering and criminal conspiracy are being investigated. The scandal is sweeping the Parliament and Strasbourg; indeed, new revelations have widened the spectrum of scrutiny to an extensive network of MEPs on the payroll of various foreign bodies and NGOs. Belgium's Minister of Justice, Vincent Van Quickenborne, has stated that the investigation has been going on for more than a year, in cooperation with foreign intelligence services; "Qatargate" would thus be only one side of this verification process. Roberta Metsola announced that "dust will not be swept under the carpet" and that she will do everything "to restore the position of the house of democracy as a legislature, as an institution that makes decisions, that is transparent and that is not for sale to foreign actors."

Bianca Franzini

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Croatia, Joins the Eurozone. On January 1st, 2023, Croatia will say goodbye to its current currency, the kuna, and will officially become a country of the Eurozone and of the Schengen area. The news should bring some benefits for the Croatian economy, as it is expected that the country will grow its economy by 0.7% in 2022. The approval of Croatia saw the rejection of the membership for the eurozone of two other countries in the region: Bulgaria and Romania. Their membership was blocked by other European countries.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Romania and Bulgaria, refused the membership for the Schengen area. The two countries in the Eastern European region have seen their application rejected in order to become member countries of the Schengen area. Austria and The Netherlands voted against the admission of Romania and Bulgaria as they expressed concern related to the illegal migration, especially from the Austrian prime minister, Gerhard Karner. Romania opposed the statements from the Austrian government, while Bulgaria showed a more diplomatic approach, and expressed willingness for cooperating in the fields that might cause inconveniences for the EU countries.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Serbia and Kosovo, new tensions are arising. In the past days, the region of northern Kosovo has seen new tensions arising. Especially, the Serbs have put barricades in order to protest the arrest of a Kosovan politician, Dejan Penic, who is suspected of having completed an attack. The international community, including the European Union and the United States, expressed concern over the situation in the region and the embassies of the UK and the US in both Belgrade and Pristina have called for their removal. Even the high commissioner for the European external action service, Joseph Borrell, declared that the barricades should be removed and are a danger to the maintenance of peace in the region.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Francesco Andrea Rossi

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Israel the dawn of a new government: Right-wing coalition leader Benjamin Netanyahu must form the new executive by Dec. 21. Oppositions and international observers make no secret of their fears about the structure of the next executive and any policies it might pursue, particularly on the West Bank and regarding justice. Indeed, Bibi himself has been forced on several occasions to emphasize that he will be the one to hold the reins of government without yielding to the intransigence of his ultranationalist and religious allies. The leader of Religious Zionism, Bezalel Smotrich may get an internal post in the Defense Ministry related to the management of the civil administration in the West Bank, whose annexation to Israel Smotrich supports. In addition, supremacist leader Ben Gvir, a supporter of the deportation of Arab-Israeli citizens, is expected to become minister of national security and assume control of the border police.

(Michele Magistretti)

Morocco, the national football team reaches an historical World Cup’s semi-final. After fighting for the access to the final against the defending champion, Morocco had to surrender to France in the football World Cup’s semi-final under way in Qatar. The final score, 2-0 for the roosters, does not do justice to the Atlas’s lions who played on par with an opponent far stronger on paper, even hitting the post at the end of the first half with the score still showing 1-0. From a sport perspective, it was an historical moment: never in the past an African or Arab national team went further than the quarterfinal in the competition. The match was played in a passionate stadium attended by 45.000 Moroccan supporters who arrived en masse also thanks to the choice of Royal Air Maroc to offer flight tickets at subsidized prices. The event was inevitably associated with the former French colonial past in Morocco: for many Moroccans, and mostly for the Moroccan community living in France, the match represented a moment of revenge. For this reason, French authorities feared possible unrest in the main country’s cities. Consequently, security measures were exceptional, with 2.200 officers deployed only in Paris. Perhaps also thanks to this measure there were no major injuries.

(Francesco Lorenzini )

Michele Magistretti and Francesco Lorenzini

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Japan, new military reform approved. The Japanese government has passed what can be regarded as the most important defense reform since the end of World War II. The move, strongly advocated by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, comes as Tokyo's response to the growing threat posed by North Korea and China: the increase in missile tests conducted by Pyongyang on the one hand and Beijing's pressure on Taiwan on the other have, inevitably, taken a key role in the reform. Among other things, the reform calls for doubling national defense spending to 2 percent of GDP by 2027.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

United States, bill passed for Puerto Rico referendum. Through the plebiscite, the Caribbean island, to date a "non-associated territory," will be asked to vote on its legal status, where the choice will be to become a full member of the federal union or opt for a form of independence. The bill was approved in the House with 233 votes in favor and 191 against; for final approval, it will also have to be endorsed by the Senate.

(Davide Shahhosseini)

Mali, Tuareg tribes getting restless again. The CMA, the Coordination of Movements of Azawad (the northern region of Mali inhabited by Tuaregs) denounced last 9th of December the failure of the agreement signed in 2015 with Mali central government. The Algiers Peace Agreement, so named to highlight the intermediation of Algeria in the negotiations, ended the Tuareg revolt erupted in 2012. On that occasion the nomad tribes did not obtain full Azawad independence from Bamako, settling for the promise of more autonomy and more integration of Tuaregs in the Malian army. Tuareg leaders complain about the lack of efficacy of the successive Malian governments in implementing the Algiers peace agreement. They also call for the intervention of international mediators, first and foremost Algeria (that has a Tuareg minority and a border with Azawad to the south), to prevent a final rupture that will inevitably lead to new turmoil in a more and more destabilized area.

(Francesco Lorenzini)

Davide Shahhosseini and Francesco Lorenzini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Chiara Giovannoni: Human Rights

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Elisa Maggiore: Latin America

Federico Pani: North America

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Laura Salvemini: Asia and the Far East

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Samuele Abrami: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa