The Future Prospects of the Alliance des États du Sahel

The military authorities in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have formed an alliance to jointly combat jihadism and establish a common political front against opponents of their proclaimed commitment to restoring sovereignty, albeit with uncertain prospects. While their ability to independently win the bloody war in the Sahel is yet to be seen, the outcome of a recent West African summit appears to indicate that the Bamako-Ouagadougou-Niamey bloc is holding together under diplomatic pressure.

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have signed a mutual defense agreement against threats of internal armed uprisings or external aggression, called the Liptako-Gourma Charter. The document, with 17 points, was signed on September 16 in Bamako, giving rise to the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS). The involved states commit to collaborating to prevent or quell armed rebellions, fight terrorism in all its forms, and counter organized crime within the ASS's common space. The objectives are to "establish a framework for collective defense and mutual assistance for the benefit of our populations," wrote Colonel Assimi Goita, Mali's transitional president, on his Twitter account. These three countries have been led by officers who have sworn to reclaim a national destiny they believe has been abandoned to foreigners, primarily the French, and their local "henchmen". They have expelled French soldiers and ambassadors, turned to new partners, including the Russians, and challenged the order defended by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Already members, along with Chad and Mauritania, of the G5 Sahel Alliance supported by France and launched in 2017 to address armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS, Guinea, Mali, and Niger have witnessed multiple coups in the last three years. The latest involved Niger, where the military overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) threatened military intervention in Niger after the coup but has recently moderated its tone. Mali and Burkina Faso promptly responded, declaring that any potential intervention would be considered a "declaration of war" against them.

Simultaneously, relations between France (the former colonial power with significant interests in the region) and the three states have deteriorated. Paris has been forced to withdraw its troops from Mali, where Russian Wagner mercenaries are present, and Burkina Faso. Mali has also asked the United Nations peacekeeping mission, MINUSMA, to leave the country, and meanwhile, a Tuareg rebellion in the north, with which a peace agreement was reached in 2015, has resurged.

Concerned that the succession of coups could spread, ECOWAS has imposed sanctions to ensure the return of civilians to power and has threatened to use force following the latest coup in Niger. On September 16, the military closed ranks and sealed their solidarity by creating the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS), whose statute commits the three countries to fight "terrorism" and binds them with a "duty of assistance and relief" in the face of any aggression. The ASS promises greater cooperation among the forces of these three countries, totaling almost 100,000 men. "In the past, it has often been said that political will [to combat jihadism] must come from the most affected states. With the ASS, this is undeniably the case," emphasizes Jean-Hervé Jézéquel, director of the Sahel project at the conflict resolution organization Crisis Group. However, it remains to be seen whether some of the world's poorest countries can afford the costs of war. "We cannot afford the luxury of a long-term war in the Sahel" says Malian politician Babarou Bocoum. "None of these three countries has ports or sufficient capacity to create wealth".

In October, Niger announced a 40% cut in its national budget following the suspension of European and American financial support due to diplomatic tensions. Russia is poised to become the privileged ally of ASS countries, but analysts question the extent of support it can provide. In Bamako, the leader of the Malian transitional government, Colonel Assimi Goita, welcomed the Russian delegation. Following the negotiations, Mali's Minister of Economy and Finance, Alousseni Sanou, reported that discussions included issues related to the construction of a railway network, the establishment of a facility for processing gold extracted from Malian mines, and the conclusion of an agreement for the construction of a nuclear power plant. Meanwhile, Moscow representatives discussed with the junta in Ouagadougou the possibility of building a nuclear power plant in Burkina Faso.

The economies of these countries are not very complementary, with similar strengths and weaknesses. Above all, they are complementary to the economies of coastal countries, with strong but conflict-threatened ties. "Sovereigntist rhetoric mobilizes people around a project," he says, "but it does not satisfy the need for basic services. These states will sooner or later collide with this reality." Malian sociologist Bréma Ely Dicko emphasizes that isolation is challenging to maintain in the long term.

The head of Niger's military junta, General Abdourahamane Tiani, has stated that the partnership will evolve not only in the security field but also in the political and monetary domains. The three countries, along with five others in the region, use the West African CFA franc, a currency tied to the euro and considered by critics as a legacy of the French colonial empire. Burkina Faso's military leader, Ibrahim Traoré, also hinted at the economic alliance between coup states, stating that the Alliance of Sahel States is a priority security alliance but will become an economic alliance and much more. In November, the finance ministers of the three countries issued a joint statement recommending the creation of an expert committee to study the issue of economic and monetary union. They also recommended the establishment of a common stabilization fund and an investment bank.

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Translated by Stefania Errico