Ethiopia - internal conflicts and regional tensions and the response of the international community

Translated by Giulia Maffeis

Since April 13th, in Ethiopia, new clashes have erupted between Amhara and Tigrayan militias in the disputed area of Raya Alamata, forcing more than fifty thousand people to flee from the northern part of the country. In such a hostile climate, where military confrontation is accompanied by media warfare, with reciprocal accusations between the Amhara National Movement (Nama) and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the unarmed victims of the conflict are the population, exhausted by years of violence that could lead to the outbreak of a new civil war. There are numerousdocumented reports of abuses committed by both factions against civilians: as of January 29th, the mass killing of dozens of men and women by members of the Sudanese National Army to avenge a contingent of soldiers attacked by the Amhara militia Fano.

Nevertheless, the international community appears inert and incapable of formulating a structural and proactive action plan to prevent further worsening of the already tragic humanitarian crisis that paralyzes the country and looms over the entire Horn of Africa. In June 2023—three months after Secretary of State Antony Blinken's statements acknowledging that all parties involved in the conflict in Ethiopia had committed war crimes and crimes against humanity—the Biden Administration informed Congress that Ethiopia was no longer accountable for committing serious human rights violations, thus reopening channels of bilateral and multilateral economic and financial cooperation to the benefit of Ethiopia itself. This stance was widely criticized as hypocritical, and undoubtedly clumsy in attempting to prevent Addis Ababa from entering into even more extensive economic cooperation agreements than those praised as "extraordinary" by Chinese Ambassador Zhao Zhiyuan.

Similarly, the Italian presidency, represented by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has faced harsh criticism for its position during the G7 meeting dedicated to Africa. Meloni, throughout her tenure, has been advocating for the need to strengthen Italy's presence on the ground through humanitarian aid and development cooperation projects, essentially aimed at pacifying and stabilizing the area, thus limiting migration flows towards Europe, as reiterated during her trip to Addis Ababa from April 14th to 16th.

However, Italy is criticized for its inability to "stimulate global action to end abuses and widespread insecurity forcing people to flee their homes," write researchers from the NGO Human Rights Watch, Ilaria Allegrozzi and Laetitia Bader. The failure to implement the formal positions of Western states towards the actors responsible for the conflicts, the frequent contradictions in the measures adopted, and the inability to counterbalance the expansion of Moscow and Beijing in the area prevent the West from having a strong say on the issues affecting the region and presenting itself as a valid interlocutor in the eyes of local leaders, who are thus left free to create new conflict hotspots.

Indeed, the possibility of a regional conflict breaking out has been referred to on several occasions by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, emphasizing the need for Ethiopia to be granted direct access to the sea. This request has been made since the country, separated from Eritrea, became politically independent in 1994 but lacked access to the Red Sea, and is now embraced by the Prime Minister, who has described it as an "existential issue" for the survival of the state itself. While an agreement between Ethiopia and Russia for the opening of a joint naval base in Djibouti seemed to have been reached in November 2023, Moscow stated that only those who are "obsessed with containing Ethiopia, potentially to balkanize it," could oppose the opening of the base, this year saw the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Addis Ababa and Somaliland.

This agreement involves that area of Somalia directly bordering Ethiopia and Djibouti, which declared itself a state but is not recognized by the international community, a thorn in the side of Somalia, which immediately passed a law to annul the Memorandum. Although the international community immediately opposed any prospect of Somalia's state unity being undermined, and the citizens of the city of Borama, within Somaliland territory, protested against the sale of their coasts, Abiy Ahmed Ali was welcomed home by tens of thousands of citizens eager to celebrate the historic achievement.