Navigating Indo-Pacific waves

Translated by Valeria D’Alessandro

In the current international context, the Indo-Pacific emerges as the stage of increasing tensions and complex dynamics. At the heart of this challenge lies Japan, an economic and technological power crucial in the region, which, by the end of 2022 defined its action plan through its National Security Strategy (NSS) document.

The document was published only after the international liberal order that characterized the past decades was contested. Specifically, Japan identifies China and Russia as the two main revisionist states. This competitive attitude undermines any attempt to create a unified approach to issues such as climate change, arms control, energy security, and food safety.

In parallel, Japan must also address domestic challenges, such as its “low fertility rate” and “harsh tax conditions”. The resolution of these challenges depends on a favorable international context. For this reason, the NSS includes the intention of promoting a “favorable safety environment” through assertive diplomacy and the reinforcement of national defense capabilities within the framework of its alliance with the USA and of collaboration with like-minded countries.

In the regional context, the “main challenge” recognized by NSS is posed by China, “to which Japan should respond with all its national power and in collaboration with its allies, like-minded country and others.” The People's Republic of China is undertaking a significant military development program and is attempting to change the status quo by force in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Regarding the issue with Taiwan, China has not ruled out the possibility of using military force and is simultaneously conducting military drills jointly with Russia close to Japan. In addition, there is an increasingly invasive presence of Russian submarines in that region. However, within the NSS, Japan expresses its intention to develop a “stable and constructive” relationship with China, while also expecting the Taiwan question to be resolved peacefully. Finally, North Korea with its latest military developments, represents a “threat that is becoming more and more severe and upcoming”.

The NSS defines three main interests:

1. Sovereignty and independence;
2. Economic growth through an open and stable economic order;
3. Protection of universal values.

According to the document, these interests should be ensured through the reinforcement of their military and economic structures with the purpose of preventing and dissuading unilateral changes in the area, in collaboration with allies and like-minded counties. Thus, a multidimensional approach has been created, based on two main components: the capabilities of diplomatic, military, economic, technological and intelligence characteristics; and the successful partnership between private and public sector.

By 2027, Japan aims to develop sufficient defense capabilities to assume “the full responsibility of defending the Nation against invaders” and to consistently allocate 2% of GDP to defense spending. Concurrently, Japan is committed to enhancing its missiles capabilities, cybersecurity expertise, and space-related skills. The Defense Forces are expected to play a crucial role in implementing “active cybernetic defense”, focused on preventing cyber-attacks against governmental networks and civilian infrastructures that could pose serious threats to national security.

In order to guarantee its security and independence, Japan’s National Security Strategy aims at achieving the energetic autonomy by further developing renewable and nuclear power sources. Moreover, the creation of a supply system capable of addressing contingent situations is envisaged. Regarding the industrial field, Japan is committed to reduce its economic dependence on nations deemed unreliable and to expanding domestic production of next generation semiconductors.

Finally, the Japanese government is committed to explaining the rationale behind its national security decisions and to increment the fostering greater patriotism toward the country and its armed forces among the population and institutions.

Some doubts arise regarding the persistent prioritization of national security, considering that this would require consistent long term investment to reinforce logistical capabilities and regain some lost ground. The first obstacle is posed by the financial challenge, as Japan’s national debt is estimated to be around 10 trillion dollars, with a debt-to-GDP ratio among the highest in the world, hovering around 260%.

In terms of international cooperation, the Japanese Defense Forces have conducted military drills with armies of like-minded countries, such as Australia, India, South Korea, UK, France, Germany and Canada. Additionally, the government of the UK, Japan and Italy have signed an official treaty to launch the “Global Air Programme” (GCAP), an innovative cooperation program that encompasses the production of next generation combat aircraft. GCAP represents a significant step forward for Japan, as it marks the first time the country has committed to an international defense project in partnership with nations other than the USA.

Regarding the development of missiles capabilities, Japan has announced the acquisition of 400 missiles Tomahawk LACM, “Land Attack Cruise Missile”, from the USA in the framework of an USA-Japan alliance. With a 1.600 km range, these missiles will significantly increase the capabilities of Japanese Defense Forces to strike targets in the Korean peninsula, as well as in East and North-East China. At the same time, Japan is committed to developing local abilities for long range and hypersonic attacks, aiming at reaching the independence in the production of certain types of missiles. These new capabilities will contribute to the upgrade of deterrence, allowing the Defense Forces to answer effectively to a missile strike.

References:

• Filippo Fasulo, Guido Alberto Casanova e Paola Morselli, “The South China Sea Is Warming Up”, ISPI, Gennaio 2024, https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/the-south-china-sea-is-warming-up-159106;
• Hideshi Tokuchi, “The basic orientation of japan’s national security strategy: International security cooperation with enhanced comprehensive national power”, AJISS, Giugno 2023;
• Veerle Nouwens, Timothy Wright e Blake Herzinger, “Long-range Strike Capabilities in the Asia-Pacific: Implications for Regional Stability”, IISS, Gennaio 2024, https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2024/01/long-range-strike-capabilities-in-the--asia-pacific-implications-for-regional-stability/;
• Sheila A. Smith, “How Japan Is Doubling Down on Its Military Power”, Council on Foreign Relations, Dicembre 2022 https://www.cfr.org/article/how-japan-doubling-down-its-military-power;
• Yuka Koshino, “Japan's transformational national-security documents”, IISS, Dicembre 2022 https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2022/12/japans-transformational-national-security-documents/;
• Michishita Narushige, “Japan’s New National Security Strategy”, CSIS, Giugno 2023 https://www.csis.org/analysis/japans-new-national-security-strategy;
• Adam P. Liff e Jeffrey W. Hornung, “Japan’s new security policies: A long road to full implementation”, Brookings, Marzo 2023, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/japans-new-security-policies-a-long-road-to-full-implementation/;
• National Security Council, “National Security Strategy of Japan”, Dicembre 2022, https://www.mofa.go.jp/fp/nsp/page1we_000081.html.