A YEAR OF ELECTIONS

Translated by Irene Cecchi

Introduction

This 2024 is going to be crucial for the world’s future. In fact, on November 5th the US Presidential elections will take place, an event at the core of international relations’ dynamics and whose effects will act on a global scale. This occurrence is particularly important for some matters related to Latin America, like migration.

The United States’ democracy faced unprecedented challenges in the last few years, culminating with the Capitol Hill attack on January 6th 2021 by Trump supporters. The next elections will determine the next president but also 33 senators and the whole House of representatives (453 seats).

The US is a federation of countries with a presidential system. Unlike other examples of presidential systems, the future of the elections is decided in the Electoral College. In fact, one can become president without receiving the majority of the people’s votes but with the majority in the Electoral College it’s enough, as happened with Trump in 2016 and Bush in 2000. So, the college is the crucial institution for the election of the president, even if it doesn’t always reflect the will of the people.

Democrats and Republicans walking a tightrope turned the Electoral College system into a sort of political roulette. In fact, in the last elections a few votes determined the results, along with the media and the lobbies.

A year of elections in Latin America

While the United States is getting ready to vote, also Latin America is going through an intense political period. With three newly elected presidents and six countries where the presidential elections are due shortly, the whole region will live a year full of change that will have effects even beyond the borders.

After the sensational victory of Javier Milei in Argentina and the turmoiled inauguration of Daniel Noboa in Ecuador in 2023, the first appointment of 2024 will take place in El Salvador, with the pretty sure confirmation of President Nayib Bukele. Other conservative leaders of this region admire his work since his administration implemented stricter punitive policies, arbitrary detentions, stronger security forces and the army control.

In May, people in Panama and Dominican Republic will vote but the spotlight is all on June 2nd, when the general elections in Mexico will take place. They are only a few months before the American ones and they will also concern the Parliament and the Governors of each state. At the end of October it will be Uruguay’s turn where the President can not be elected again consecutively, just like in Mexico.

In Brasil, the second year of Lula da Silva’s mandate will be affected by the economic scenario and by the local elections in October. Lula is carrying out a delicate and balanced work of exchange of favors between the two main entities of Brazilian politics, the Workers’ Party and the Moderates, in order to gain the support of the smaller parties that were previously allies of Jair Bolsonaro. Lastly, the Venezuelan Nicolas Maduro promised to the international community transparent presidential elections in 2024, in the attempt to relieve the trade sanctions.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018… Two sides of the same coin

Let’s analyse Trump’s policies regarding Latin Americans through the lens of his migration laws, that go from the inhuman “border wall” to his intensified rhetoric against migrants, accused to be the cause of crime in the United States. The migration matters would be the most and worst affected by a renovated “zero tolerance” policy, with new deportations, detentions and family separation.

Latin America is facing one of the biggest migration crises, with an incessantly rising number of people crossing and fleeing the region due to social, economic and political conflicts, and these people are the same ones who will be mostly targeted and affected by the upcoming elections. 2023 wrapped up counting 2.4 million migrants in the South-West border and through the Darién Gap, the highest number ever collected.

During his last mandate, Trump imposed unilateral sanctions on Cuba and Venezuela without sending an allied administration to Caracas, inspired by a more conservative pattern and distant from China, with whom the US is still fighting to gain world economic supremacy. Argentina, for example, decided not to take part in the BRICS+ for now and stick under the US umbrella. Another Trump administration would strengthen the ultra-conservative, anti-China and anti-left movements in the region.

In this perspective, it may happen that in a second mandate Biden will show more interest in a tighter relation with Latin America. However, a close observation of his current administration on this matter reveals that it is not that different from the one of his predecessor. The Biden administration, for example, renewed the sanctions against Venezuela and opposed the exit of Cuba from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism.

Between elections and geopolitical implications

The United States is now in front of a crossroads that may lead the Country to two dead-end streets: despite the two different ideologies and personalities, both leaders won’t bring any change in the relations with Latin America.

There is more, the geopolitical environment seems to show concern both by the democratic and republican side in the attempt of keeping the region’s goals of external action, aligned with the US against overseas actors and distant from any other type of regional organization.

With the rising in Latin America of vigorous authoritarian governments, drug trafficking and human rights violations, summarized in the Bolivian coup in 2019 and the violent repression of protesters, the Biden election for the 46th presidency of the United States represented a setback for the far-right wave that affected the whole world even if the US response to authoritarian actions has been almost empty, excluding some sanctions against Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela.

According to the Egyptian academic Samir Amin, the US world supremacy is based on five main pillars: far-reaching weapons, mass media communication, the monetary and financial system, advanced technologies and control of natural resources but lately these sectors are showing signs of abating, with increasingly more crumblings and gaps.

The new trade deals and efforts of the BRICS+ group to reach the dedollarization of their financial system are eroding US supremacy. In the meantime, the technological progress of Russia and China are challenging the American primacy.

This situation suggests the US to rely more on their military force and their communication network in order to stay in control of what they consider to be their natural supremacy.

Conclusions

During the Cold War, the polarization between great powers and the promotion of a “free world” made the US prioritize geopolitics over democracy and support anti-communist regimes regardless of the cruel human rights violations they carried out, allowing the western democracies to succeed.

Whoever will sit in the Oval Office in January will not bring significant change to the current situation in Latin America and the conditions at the border will only get worse. The priority of both candidates is to find ways of increasing the region’s dependence on the United States and get rid of Chinese and Russian influence, even if it means more information control and military force displays. The continuing attention to the region in the external action framework, regardless of the winner of the elections, proves its strategic importance in the emerging world order.

Mondo Internazionale APS - Riproduzione Riservata 2024