By Floris Cooijmans
Danish Intelligence is the latest, and perhaps the bluntest, in stating what threat the current Russian regime poses to the rest of Europe. In two years, Russia could “be ready for a regional war against several countries in the Baltic Sea region”, they wrote in a report last February. The Danes reiterated what other European intelligence agencies have been saying for a while now: Russia is a credible threat to European security, one which most likely will only get more threatening.
The year 2022 was already a turning point, a “Zeitenwende” if you are German inclined. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February of that year already moved European countries to increase their military spending, with many NATO members finally pledging to spend 2% of their budget on their military. Another wave of support for the European strategic autonomy has materialised since Trump took office for the second time and altered his predecessor’s foreign policy course. Trump is taking a much more friendly stance towards Russia and echoes Kremlin’s talking points by blaming Ukraine for the outbreak of the war in the first place, and even berated Zelenskiy when he visited the White House. These changes in American policy are nothing short of a new geopolitical age, one in which the US can no longer be trusted to have Europe’s back.
The announcement of increased defence spending is laudable, but money alone will not get us there. Tanks and drones are not of much use when there is no one to pilot them. To tackle their manpower issues, some European countries are mulling over whether to reintroduce compulsory military service. So far, these suggestions to bring back conscription have all been made on a national basis. However, undertaking conscription on a pan-European basis could be a massive step forward for the European security and the European project as a whole.
Polling shows that in several EU members states, a majority of the population is in favour of a common European army. The discussion over this issue started already in the 1950s, and experts have pointed out that it is “unhelpful” in the current debate, as the formation of such an armed force would take too long to help with the threats Europe is currently facing. However, such integration of armies is not without precedent in Europe, as the Dutch army is fully integrated into the German one.
Having a common European conscription would be the first (baby) step in the direction of a common European army. It could be a testing ground of how to operate and integrate the different cultures, military traditions and languages of the EU member states. For the last point, the French or Germans might try to make their language (one of) the official tongues of the common army, but in the end it will most likely be Euro-English (the development of a new language, like the Austro-Hungarian army did with “Army Slavic”, to ease communication between the different peoples in their army will hopefully not be necessary).
The EU countries which still have conscription, like Finland or Greece, could lead the way. Initially, their current programmes could be expanded to include nationals from other member states. The programme could have a similar set-up as the most popular EU scheme: the Erasmus Programme.
This common conscription would have all the advantages of the regular Erasmus: building bridges between the different regions of Europe, furthering language skills, and making “Europe” a lived experience rather than something stuffy bureaucrats do in far-away Brussels. However, Pavel from Poland and Umberto from Italy will not meet in the lecture halls of the University of Utrecht, but rather while digging trenches in eastern Latvia. Furthermore, while the normal Erasmus scheme is mostly reserved for people in higher education, the common European conscription would be more inclusive, and open to those of all education levels.
What is more, people generally in favour of a conscription argue that it would help people get out of their social bubble by pretty much forcing them to meet peers from every different walk of life. These advantages of a national conscription would only be multiplied when it was to be set up on a European level.
An issue most military forces face currently, is the formation of exactly this: a social bubble. As seeking a career in the military is voluntary, it is bound to attract people which are interested in (or rather: obsessed with) military history, firearms or being an “alpha male”, types of people who often share certain (extremists) political viewpoints. This is already a problem for European armies: army personnel getting suspended for partaking in far-right group chats is not an uncommon occurrence. By introducing a conscription, there is a change that more people with different ideologies and views of the world get in the touch with the military, which could result in a more open and progressive culture, where xenophobic views are no longer tolerated.
Something which has to be mentioned when talking about a potential European Army is that the current military alliance most EU members are a part of, does not include all of them. The EU – NATO circles intersect, but do not completely overlap. Some countries are in the former but not the latter (Ireland, Austria, Cyprus), and many more are in NATO, but not the Union (UK, Albania, Turkey, Norway, Iceland, etc.). These circles will need to be squared, but in a Europe that is increasingly unsafe, it is not unlikely that non-members of both these organisations will be trying to cozy up to the other, and participation in a common conscription scheme would be one way to achieve that.
“Any European war is a civil war” is a quote of unknown origin, sometimes attributed to Victor Hugo, sometimes to Napoleon. It is a tragedy and a failure that European countries need to rearm themselves, but in the face of an increasingly hostile Russia, and a USA which cannot be counted on anymore, there is little choice. If a common conscription is implemented quickly enough, and leads to the creation of a European Army, it could have a deterring effect which prevents conflict, a preferable alternative to another generation of Europeans sent to their death on the battlefield.
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