Saudi Arabia and Iran: a relevant diplomatic turn

Translated by Alvise Cecchetti

A few days ago it has started in China the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. This event represents a pivotal moment for this Asiatic country, not just for the choices made, as the third election of Xi Jinping as the new President of the Popular Chinese Republic, but also for the definition and the delivering of the country positioning for next years. Moreover, this has also been a favourable occasion to celebrate an important diplomatic turn: the rapprochement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with Iran.

This has been a significant agreement signed in China under the supervision of the head of the Chinese diplomacy Wang Yi, who has celebrated this fundamental turn in Middle East, demonstrating the relevant role that China has carved out in the region. This recently-developed agreement demonstrates without any doubt the relevance of the relations promoted by China both with Saudi Arabia and Iran and the difference with American policies in the region, highly affected by the sensible topic of nuclear energy and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Made these premises clear, it is mandatory to underline how this rapprochement is also not only related to the condition of these two countries, but the result of a very delicate international situation: an “emergency” status which led two competitors in the area to close their ties again. Indeed, the attempt made by Saudi Arabia to start a process of normalisation of relations shows the clear will to implement a new policy in the area after years of intense diplomatic and military efforts that didn’t always sort out the expected results. A similar – if not worse in many circumstances – situation is the one affecting Iran: pressed by internal demonstrations and international isolation exacerbated by Iran’s military support to Russia, the Ayatollah’s country desperately needed to normalize relations with the neighbouring countries.

On this matter, several are the suggestions formulated following an extremely interesting event such as the one analyzed, one above all the Yemenite case. Yemen, decimated by one of the bloodiest war of the last decades, might benefit from this agreement to undertake a de-escalation process, prolong and reinforce the national ceasefire period. However, the possibility of a pacification process in the area is quite remote seen the widespread instability and the country’s fragmentation.

Moreover, it would be equally interesting to understand Israel’s reaction. On the one hand its relations with Iran, now become a nuclear menace, are at an all-time low and there is a growing tangible possibility of a preventive operation in the area. On the other hand, it should not be overlooked the fact that this agreement might complicate current policies in the region, making difficult the maintaining of those international obligations made under the supervision of the U.S. which sought to promote new stability perspectives in the area including Israel’s direct efforts through the Abraham agreements and Negev Forum. Hence, this implicitly attests a hairline crack in the relations between Saudi Arabia and the U.S, a historic alliance which dates back to 1945 when the U.S. President Roosvelt and King Ibn Saud signed an historic agreement providing security in the area in exchange of Saudi oil.

Symptoms showing the contemporary fragility of Saudi-US relations became manifested in the last years in occasions such as the missed intervention after the Yemenite Houthi attack against Saudi refineries on September 2019, as well as the feeble collaboration after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in oil production.

Mondo Internazionale APS - Riproduzione Riservata ® 2023

Sources consulted for this article:

Immagine: https://www.pexels.com/it-it/foto/emirati-arabi-uniti-pakistan-mappa-del-mondo-afghanistan-8828624/

^[1] https://www.agi.it/estero/news/2023-03-10/cina_xi_rieletto_storico_terzo_mandato-20435189/

^[2] https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/accordo-arabia-saudita-iran-mediato-cina-AEqKpl1C

^[3] https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/accordo-arabia-saudita-iran-ecco-cosa-cerca-riyadh-120575

^[4] https://www.ilpost.it/2023/03/10/arabia-saudita-iran-cina-relazioni/