Argentina, the situation between the first and second rounds of the presidential elections

The outcome of the first round of elections

On Sunday, October 22, general elections were held in Argentina to decree the new President of the country. Sergio Massa, leader of the Peronist party Union por la Patria, to which the current head of state Alberto Fernandez also belongs, won the largest number of votes: the goal of 36.6% in the first round, however, was not enough to directly obtain full powers, being obligatory a qualified majority of 45%, or 40% of the votes and 10 points advantage over the next party; the candidate will therefore have to reconfirm his supremacy in the runoff on November 19, challenging the second most voted candidate, Javier Milei, group leader of the coalition La Libertad Avanza, who has accumulated 29.9% of popular favour. On the third step of the podium, with a booty equal to 23.8% of the votes, on the other hand, came Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio, a conservative-oriented coalition that includes the party of former President Mauricio Macri, Propuesta Repúblicana, and the group Unión Cívica Radical, led by the head of the government of the city of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodriguez Larreta. Last but not least, the candidatures of Juan Schiaretti of Hacemos por Nuestro País (6.8%) and Myriam Bregman of the Frente de Izquierda y de los Trabajadores (2.7%).

The leader of the Peronist party

Lawyer and Minister of Economy, 51-year-old Sergio Massa was the great revelation of the first round of voting. The leader of Union por la Patria managed to overturn the expectations of the 19 October polls and win the trust of several citizens. According to the experts, two factors contributed to its unexpected popularity. Firstly, an electoral strategy of distancing itself from the current government, which is responsible for a very serious socio-economic disruption: according to data from the analysis centre Fundación Capital, Argentina’s inflation is around 150% – and is set to rise by the end of the year – and 40% of the population lives below the poverty line. In fact, Massa has repeatedly expressed a desire to reverse the course of the current political administration: from this perspective, the aversion to the Peronist proposal, embodied in particular by Vice-President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, could have been a decisive factor in the choice of many centre-left voters. Secondly, it is important to consider the failure of Patricia Bullrich's party, whose support to the libertarian Javier Milei's may have drawn many typically right-wing votes towards a more moderate candidacy.

The man with the chainsaw

Defined by many newspapers as the Argentine Trump, anti-system ultra-liberalist Javier Milei has disappointed the expectations of the initial predictions, stopping more than 6 distances from the winner of the first round. With a populist electoral program, the leader of La Libertad Avanza won the sympathy of millions of Argentines, especially young and poor, disappointed by the empty promises of previous politicians and fed up with the inefficiencies of a corrupt and unreliable apical caste. In recent years, his speeches about tax cuts and opening up to the dollar economy have penetrated a large section of public opinion eager for drastic social and economic change; his proclamations for the freedom to carry arms and the liberalisation of the organ market have hit the right buttons in areas of the country plagued by crime and civil degradation.

In addition to this, the rise in popular approval has undoubtedly been helped by the creation of a subversive and disruptive character: the choice to wield a chainsaw during a rally in the middle of an election campaign, for example, is emblematic of his extremely unconventional and out of the ordinary attitude. So what went wrong on October 22? Some experts have recognised the campaña del miedo carried out by the ruling party as a decisive factor in the suppression of the outsider candidate: the Peronist list, by alerting the population to the dangerous drifts of a person like Milei, would thus reshape the voting intentions of thousands of citizens. Illuminating the disturbing extravagance of the rival, then, Union por la Patria and allies have disqualified the little Trump in the eyes of a good slice of public opinion, thus touching his narcissistic triumphalism.

Estimates of voting

In view of the mid-November ballot, the two rival leaders have already started their election campaigns. Sergio Massa has declared his intention to form a government of national unity, bringing together parties outside his original coalition and creating an executive based on meritocracy and not on political alliances. In particular, among the partners on which the Minister of Economy will be able to count are Juan Schiaretti, an iron Peronist who will not deny his support for the leading party, and Myriam Bregman, leader of the national left. Javier Milei, on the other hand, said he was optimistic, despite the second place, as two-thirds of the electorate voted against Kirchnerism and in favour of change. This positivity found support, a few days after the first round of elections, in the decision of Patricia Bullrich to support the leader of La Libertad Avanza: the choice of field of the group leader of Juntos por el Cambio could cause a split within the coalition in view of the run-up. The radical wing, led by former anti-Kirchnerian President Mauricio Macri, could distance itself from Massa and wink at Milei; the moderate wing led by Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, on the other hand, has shown little inclination to twinning with the populist faction, departing from the official position of the macro-group. And it will be precisely this double pool of voters that will have a decisive role in tilting the balance towards one of the two competitors: Massa would only need to take the yes of a small share of the Juntos por el Cambio party to cut the 50% mark plus one vote; Milei, on the other hand, would need more substantial support to accumulate more support than his rival by November 19 at the latest.

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