In the new issue of Framing we return to focus on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, with updates on the former's relationship with the USA, and the position of the European Parliament. Still in Europe, we return to the topic of enlargement, with Austria's adverse position towards the entry of Romania and Bulgaria into the Schengen area. On the subject of elections, we will talk about the Schengen vote in Poland and Ecuador.
All this and much more in the 117th issue of Framing the World!
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
HUMAN RIGHTS
Australia, failure of Indigenous Voice referendum. On October 14th, a historic referendum in Australia saw the rejection of a constitutional reform that would have marked the first significant change to the country's constitution in nearly 50 years. The proposed reform aimed to establish an “Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice”, an advisory representative body to protect the interests of Aboriginal peoples at the national level. When announcing plans to hold a referendum, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese emphasised that it would improve the living conditions of indigenous Australians and provide 'recognition for the world's oldest continuous culture'. However, the constitutional amendment was rejected nationally and by a majority in every state, with critics arguing that indigenous people are already adequately represented in parliament.
(Lorenzo Franceschetti)
France, Amnesty condemns restriction on the right to protest. After the French Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, called for the prohibition of all demonstrations in support of Palestinians, Amnesty International France responded with a stern statement. The organization's president, Jean-Claude Samouiller, emphasized that such a ban constitutes a serious assault on the right to protest. Samouiller stressed the importance of considering the context, referencing the ongoing violence between Israel and Palestine. However, he underlined that the right to peaceful protest is sacrosanct and that a ban should be the last resort. Amnesty International France reiterated that, according to international law, a prohibition can only be justified if there is a specific threat, and if less restrictive measures are unavailable to maintain public order. The statement highlights the need to balance public safety with fundamental human rights.
(Sofia Ena)
India, Supreme Court rejects legalisation of same-sex marriage. On October 17th, India's Supreme Court rejected the legalisation of same-sex unions, but accepted the government's offer, proposed by Solicitor General Tushar Mehta, to set up a committee, headed by the country's top bureaucrat, to consider granting same-sex couples the rights and privileges available to heterosexual couples. After examining 21 petitions filed by same-sex couples and activists, the court judges agreed with the government, arguing that only parliament can deal with the socio-legal issue of marriage and that judges can only interpret laws. Aakar Patel, chairman of the board of Amnesty International India, spoke of ' a historic missed opportunity for the Supreme Court of India to herald in a new era in what has been a long fight for equal rights of LGBTI people”.
(Lorenzo Franceschetti)
Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
Exxon, deal of the year. ExxonMobil Corporation has agreed to buy Pioneer Natural Resources Company in the world's largest acquisition this year. Exxon, one of the best-performing companies in the energy industry, whose stock price has more than tripled in the past three years, will buy the smaller Pioneer for just under $60 billion in an all-stock deal -- Exxon's largest transaction since it merged with Mobil in 1999. Once the deal is completed - and Federal Trade Commission approval is not guaranteed - Exxon will be able to increase its daily oil production to about 50 percent more than that of its nearest rival and tap into a quantity of onshore oil wells that can be activated in a matter of months, an ability to rapidly change production that will help Exxon quite a bit to exploit volatile market conditions to its advantage.
JPMorgan, still on the rise. JPMorgan Chase's third-quarter earnings rose 35% year-on-year to $13.2 billion, thanks to higher net interest rates. Higher rates mean higher interest income for banks, and JPMorgan's net interest income -- the difference between what it earns on loans and what it pays customers for their deposits -- rose to $22.9 billion, a 4% increase over the previous quarter and 30% over the previous year. JPMorgan Chairman and CEO Jaime Dimon said U.S. consumers and businesses remain healthy, even as they are spending down their excess cash reserves, but warned that the tight labor market, high government debt and deficits remain risks. Dimon also said that geopolitical risks, such as the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Israel, could have far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets and global trade.
Inflation, data moving upward. The Labor Department's September Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in higher than expected, increasing concerns about the possibility of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and bringing pessimism back to Wall Street after several positive sessions. Data released last Thursday showed that prices in September rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.4 % month-on-month, slightly exceeding forecasts. Rising housing costs were a major contributor to the price increase, making up more than half of the monthly increase in inflation, while fuel costs also pushed inflation upward, with the energy index rising 1.5% over the month. The core index, which excludes food and energy costs, posted a 0.3% month-on-month price increase in September, the same reading as in August, and an annual increase of 4.1%, down from 4.3% in August and in line with analysts' projections.
USA, forecasts improve. The International Monetary Fund has raised its global inflation forecast for 2024 to 5.8% from the 5.2% forecast three months ago, and expects consumer price increases to remain well above central bank targets in most countries through 2025. In addition, the institute now sees global growth of 2.9% for next year, down slightly from previous forecasts and below the 3.8% average of the past 20 years. The United States was one of the few countries where the IMF raised its growth forecast to 2.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024, with an improvement from earlier in the year attributed to "strengthening business investment in the second quarter and resilient consumption growth". The improvement in growth projections for the United States stands out from the rest of the world, for which growth will remain "stable and slow" at 3% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024.
Leonardo Aldeghi
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Niger, French troops eventually proceed to withdraw from the country. After months lasting tensions, the spokesman of the French Chief has confirmed that French contingent has begun the operations to leave the country on Monday 10th. This comes as an important achievement to Niger’s new strongman, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, who has come to power after the anti-French coup of the 26th of July. The contingent had officially been deployed as part of a wider military operation in order to contain ISIS in the region.
Rwanda, Parisian investigating judges dismiss the role of the French army in 1994 genocide. A new dismissal of the role of French army have been issued by the French judges responsible for investigations into the inaction of the French army to prevent the Bisesero massacre, which happened during the 1994 genocide and led to the murder of tens of thousand of Tutsis. Even though this outcome was expected, the appealing civil parties hoped that the judges would continue their investigations, particularly focusing on the Duclert Report. The Report, realised by French historian Vincent Duclert, doesn’t provide elements proving France’s complicity in the massacre, but suggests that more could have done to prevent it.
Aurelia Puliafito
NORTH AMERICA
United States: Biden for Israel (part 1). In Tel Aviv, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, participated in a meeting with Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, during which he asked not to be "consumed by anger" in response to the Hamas attack. Following the talks, Netanyahu agreed to reopen the Egypt-Gaza borders to allow the arrival of humanitarian aid, at least until they do not "reach Hamas." Biden also promised ongoing American support and confirmed the thesis that the attack on the hospital, which shocked the international public opinion, did not result from an Israeli airstrike but from a "stray missile from a Gaza terrorist group."
United States: Biden for Israel (part 2). The news that, following the meeting in Tel Aviv, the President of the United States Joe Biden intends to ask Congress to allocate new military aid to Israel, has generated a strong response within the American public opinion. One of the most impactful reactions came from Josh Paul, a State Department official who decided to resign, describing the decision to send more weapons and ammunition to Israel as a genuine "intellectual bankruptcy based on political convenience." Josh Paul is convinced of the monstrosity of the Hamas attack but stated that the response being taken by the Israeli political class will only lead to increasing suffering for both Israeli and Palestinian citizens.
Lorenzo Graziani
LATIN AMERICA
Ecuador, Presidential election in Noboa's favor. The second round of presidential elections saw a reversal of the result of the first round, held last August. Multiple events a led to today's election results. First, the invocation by the previous Ecuadorian president, Lasso, of the so-called "muerte cruzada" or early election and then, later, the assassination of the favored candidate for the Ecuadorian presidency, Fernando Villavicencio. These events saw their end last October 15, when Daniel Noboa, a liberal belonging to the ADN party, National Democratic Action, won in the second round of elections against opponent Luis Gonzalez's 47.70 % initially lead. Noboa, the son of one of the country's wealthiest businessmen and who followed in his father's footsteps, has only two years of political career in parliament behind him to date. The country thus chooses the line of the politician-entrepreneur whose program calls for a reduction in state intervention through the partial privatization of services such as health, education and social security. The new Ecuadorian president, in official office for the next 16 months, finds himself at the helm of a country in the throes of an economic and social crisis due to $5 billion in debt, a narco-trafficking emergency, and corruption. The precarious situation has led to political deterioration and widespread discontent among the population, which has expressed its dissent through widespread social violence, especially during the election campaign.
Colombia, attempts at internal reconciliation in the country continue. Since the second half of the last century, Colombia has been experiencing internal conflict between the state and subversive organizations. These groups include the FARC, or the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, and the ELN, National Liberation Army, which have been guerrilla internal struggles and resistance since the beginning to achieve their claims. It is precisely these groups that have been fueling the situation of internal turmoil in the country for decades now, with an estimated 200,000 people killed. Thanks to negotiations held in Venezuela-one of the mediating countries in addition to Switzerland, Novervegia and Ireland-many advances have been made, and although the situation remains tense, the path to pacification no longer seems a mirage. Among the most recent advances was the issuance of an official communiqué by the Colombian government and the FARC last Oct. 16, making public the decision of the two sides to sign a cease-fire agreement for the next three months. The Colombian president speaks of a willingness to "move toward peace." This is a real turnaround: think of the unsuccessful attempt to conclude a peace agreement in 2016 then, indeed, ended with nothing and a fight that never stopped. To date, the government seems to want to commit itself to the petitions presented by the FARC, thus in respecting the rights of the civilian population, primarily by allowing the smooth conduct of future regional elections on October 29.
(Serena Basso)
Brazil, Amazon forest fires cover Manaus with smoke. Since last week, the air quality in north-west Brazil has deteriorated due to the large number of fires set in the region by cattle breeders and farmers, for reasons related to the construction of new infrastructure and the creation of new arable fields. The dry climate, probably due to the atmospheric phenomenon called 'El Niño' and global warming linked to human activities, was a decisive factor in this scenario. According to local authorities, 2700 fires were recorded in the state of Amazonas during the last period, a record number in the region.
(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)
Venezuela, agreement between government and opposition eases US sanctions. On Tuesday, 17 October, the Venezuelan government and opposition signed an agreement on the organization of next year's presidential elections. Taking note of the democratic initiative of incumbent President Nicolas Maduro, the US decided to ease sanctions on Caracas, allowing the purchase of oil and gas from the South American country for a period of six months. Given the precedent, however, the libertarian opening of the Chavista executive does not convince the opposition parties and there are fears that Maduro's proposal will lead to nothing concrete.
(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)
Alessandro Dowlatshahi e Serena Basso
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
China, good news and bad news. China's economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, thanks to increases in industrial production and consumer spending, according to a government statement. Gross domestic product grew 1.3% from the previous quarter and 4.9 % year-on-year, which was higher than analysts' estimates of 1% and 4.4%, respectively, but lower than the annual expansion rate of 6.3% recorded in the second quarter. The Chinese government spent more on infrastructure projects such as roads and public facilities, while state-owned banks invested more resources in new factories and capital projects. Despite the pickup in growth, the Chinese economy is not out of the woods yet. Rather, the real estate sector, one of the main drivers of growth, is still in crisis as demonstrated last week by Country Garden, the country's largest builder by sales and so far considered solid, which is now on the brink of default after missing a $15 million coupon payment on one of its own bonds.
Leonardo Aldeghi
WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
Belgium, terror strikes Brussels: two Swedes killed in Terrorist Attack. On the evening of Monday, October 16, the Belgian capital witnessed a terrorist attack. A man wearing an orange vest opened fire with a semi-automatic rifle, claiming the lives of two Swedish nationals. By the morning of October 17, the attacker was identified but lost his life in a confrontation with the police. The country and Brussels both raised their security alert levels, with Brussels reaching the highest level 4. The attack took place not far from the city center, with the assailant firing upon pedestrians around 7:15 PM. He pursued those who sought refuge in the atrium of the Flemish Housing Fund, and a video captured the attacker using an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle inside the building. After the assault, he fled on a scooter, shouting "Allah Akbar" as he escaped. The attacker's motive appears to be connected to the Swedish nationality of the victims. In a video posted on social media, he claimed inspiration from the Islamic State and cited a "red line" concerning the Holy Quran, referring to Quran burnings in Stockholm earlier in the year.
(Sofia Ena)
Poland, political turnaround for the country. On October 15, 2023, Poland witnessed a potential political shift. Donald Tusk, former Polish prime minister and a key figure in the European Union, emerged victorious in the elections, signaling a possible end to the dominance of Jarosław Kaczyński's Law and Justice (PiS) party. The primary opposition coalition led by Tusk secured 30.7% of the votes. Although the PiS remains the leading force in Parliament, its significant decline compared to previous elections raises questions about the party's future. Additionally, parallel referendums, including those on migration and other issues, failed to reach the quorum, rendering them non-binding. The 2023 elections could represent a significant turning point for Poland and its relationship with the European Union.
(Sofia Ena)
European Parliament, 'humanitarian pause' for Gaza. In addition to attacking the Hamas attack, the European Parliament, in a non-legislative resolution passed with 500 votes in favour, 21 against and 24 abstentions, calls for a "humanitarian pause" for Gaza. The EU Parliament's resolution came after the United States vetoed a UN Security Council text calling for a 'humanitarian pause' to bring humanitarian aid to Gaza civilians. The Parliament said it condemns Hamas's terrorist attacks and recognises Israel's right to defend itself in accordance with international humanitarian law. At the same time, the Parliament calls for increased humanitarian assistance to Gaza, without directly or indirectly funding terrorist groups. The European Commission has announced that it will provide an airlift of humanitarian supplies to the Gaza Strip via Egypt.
(Bianca Franzini)
EU, Austria opposed the annexation of Romania and Bulgaria into the Schengen area despite Spanish pressure: The Spanish EU Council presidency aims to vote in December on the accession of Romania and Bulgaria to the Schengen area, an issue that has been pending for some time. Schengen entry requires the unanimous approval of the Justice and Home Affairs Council, composed of the interior ministers of the 27 member states. The European Commission has stated that Romania and Bulgaria have met the criteria for membership since 2011. However, Austria opposes Schengen enlargement citing the flow of irregular crossings of the EU's external borders. Austrian resistance has prevented progress to date. The Spanish interior minister hopes for an agreement in December, despite Austrian opposition. Meanwhile, some member states have introduced temporary border controls to manage the flow of asylum seekers.
(Francesca Pasqualino)
Bianca Franzini, Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
Poland, new leadership suggests a new air of democracy and change: The elections held on Sunday 15 October in Poland indicate that Donald Tusk, former prime minister and former president of the European Council, is likely to lead a coalition government that will represent a significant change from the current conservative government in Warsaw. This coalition would include the centre-right Civic Platform party, the left-wing Lewica and the centrist Third Way grouping, consisting of the Poland 2050 and Polish People's Party parties. It is expected that this new leadership will aim to restore democracy in Poland, bringing back the judiciary and freedom of the press, as well as restoring minority rights. Poland could also improve relations with the EU, as Tusk is well known in Brussels. However, some positions will remain similar, such as support for Ukraine and opposition to compulsory relocations of asylum seekers. The coalition could face internal divisions on issues such as abortion and the adoption of the euro.
Russia, Putin leave former USSR for second time to deepen partnership with China: Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a trip aimed at strengthening the partnership between the two countries. This is only Putin's second foreign visit since the issuance of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in March. The ICC has accused Putin of illegally deporting children from Ukraine, but neither China nor Kyrgyzstan (which he visited recently) are members of the ICC. During his trip, Putin will attend the third Belt and Road forum in Beijing and hold bilateral talks with Xi. This trip highlights the consolidation of energy ties between Russia and China, despite Western criticism. Putin praised Xi's Belt and Road Initiative as a platform for international cooperation. This trip, although related to an international conference, has an important political significance.
Francesca Pasqualino
MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Israel, the first stages of the conflict: After Hamas attacks on 7 October, Israel declared a state of war, mobilising its army and hundreds of thousands of reservists. The Israeli Defence Forces began a bombing campaign on the Gaza Strip. By now, casualties on both sides exceed thousands, and while the areas bordering the Strip and the border with Lebanon are being evacuated, the inhabitants of Gaza are being forced to abandon the northern part of the Strip, in anticipation of a ground invasion by the Israeli army. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts struggle to advance, amidst almost unanimous condemnation from the Arab world and determined Western support for Israel. Once the ground offensive has begun, it should not be ruled out that Hezbollah may decide to definitively open a second front in the north to challenge Israel.
Michele Magistretti
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Venezuela, most US economic sanctions lifted. The US lifted most sanctions against Venezuela following the agreement between the government and the opposition on the holding of presidential elections in 2024. On the basis of the new understanding, Caracas will again be allowed to export gold, oil and natural gas, the latter two for a limited time period of six months. However, the sanctions related to human rights violations, imputed to the Maduro regime, remain in place. In fact, the White House urged Caracas to free political prisoners and respect the rule of law, implying an immediate reintroduction of the measures should the agreement be violated.
European Commission, concerns over citizenship programmes of 5 Caribbean countries. A recent report by the European Commission has raised a number of concerns about the citizenship-by-investment programmes of Antigua and Barbuda; Grenada; Saint Kitts and Nevis; Saint Lucia and Dominica. Through these programmes, by virtue of investments in the country, citizenship can be acquired. As the report states, based on previous agreements, passport holders from those five countries can travel to the EU without having to apply for a visa. The Commission document denounces insufficient controls, low rejection rates (3-6%), low entry barriers (around EUR 95,000). A visit to the country of citizenship acquisition is not compulsory, and applicants can even change their personal details. Through citizenship programmes, some 88,000 passports have been issued to date, most of them to citizens from countries such as China, Russia, Syria, Libya and Iraq.
Davide Shahhosseini
Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.
Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East
Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union
Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security
Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security
Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa
Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance
Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights
Lorenzo Graziani: North America
Ludovica Costantini: Latin America
Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa
Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa