Framing The World, CXXVIII Edition

Framing The World, CXXVIII Edition

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Gambia, proposed legislation endangers Female Genital Mutilation Ban. Gambia's National Assembly is currently proposing a bill to review the 2015 ban on Female Genital Mutilation raising concerns about the potential rollback of the country: if passed, this move could undermine hard-fought gains in protecting the rights of women and girls. Gambia's status as one of the top 10 countries affected by FGM underscores the urgency of maintaining the ban implemented in 2015, which criminalized all forms of FGM. The proposed reversal risks legitimizing the harmful practice and setting a worrying precedent for the continent.

(Sofia Ena)

Sweden, approved a new law for gender change.

With 234 votes in favour, 94 against and a debate of almost 6 hours, the Swedish Parliament approved a new law reducing the age needed to gender change from 18 to 16 years. Under 18 , will still need to obtain a series of authorisations from the doctor to that of the National Agency for Health and Welfare.A significant step forward for Sweden, in line with Denmark,Finland and Norway have amended their legislation in this field in recent years.

(Lisa Pasolini)

Georgia, protests and concerns over the bill “On transparency of foreign influence”. On 15 April 2024, the Legal Committee of Georgia approved the draft law "On Transparency of Foreign Influence", which requires civil society organisations receiving foreign funding to register as entities serving foreign interests. Immediately after the approval, peaceful protests broke out in Tbilisi, marked by the display of Georgian and EU flags. The police responded forcefully, leading to 14 arrests and one reported injured. Local NGOs expressed concern that government officials intimidated civil servants and others to silence opposition to the bill. Amnesty International also urged the Georgian authorities to reconsider the legislation, stressing the importance of upholding freedom of expression and association as fundamental rights."

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

China, higher GDP. China's GDP rose 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, a rate that exceeded forecasts of +4.6% and followed mixed data in recent weeks. Specifically, industrial output increased 6.1%, driven by exports, but producer prices fell 2.7% due to deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector, while fixed investment grew 4.5%, driven by manufacturing investment rising 9.9%. However, the real estate sector continues to show signs of weakness, with residential investment down 10.5%, a 27.8% drop in new housing starts and a 20.7% decline in housing completion. The National Bureau of Statistics noted that the national economy had a good start in the first quarter, laying a solid foundation for the full year, while also cautioning that "the external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain."

Middle East, oil falls. Both the much anticipated Iranian attack on Israel and the Jewish state's response against the Islamic republic had no major repercussions on the oil market. In both cases, a brief initial spike lasting a few minutes was followed by declines, 1.7% in the first case and 0.5% in the second. Thus, the Brent abandoned the $90/barrel level and returned to the mid-$80s. International markets, therefore, believe that the dispute between the two countries, even in light of Iran's willingness to minimize the damage and the importance of Israeli action, may be heading for a "peaceful" conclusion and that there are currently no excessive risks of a broader regional conflict. In any case, crude oil has risen about 10% since the beginning of the year, mainly in the wake of OPEC+ production cuts.

US, inflation rises again. Consumer prices in the United States resumed an upward trend, rising 3.5% annually in March according to the CPI index data released Wednesday, April 10, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is a sharp increase from the 3.2% increase in February and the highest annual figure in six months. Excluding fuel and food, core inflation rose 0.4% month-on-month (0.3% expected), unchanged from February's 3.8% annual increase (3.7% expected). Fuel and housing expenditures contributed more than half of the monthly increase, but price increases were broad-based. Services rose 0.5% monthly and 5.3% annually, with even larger increases for health services and auto insurance (up 22% annually). Wall Street dropped by 1% immediately after the release of this data that pushes an interest rate cut further in the future, and in the days that followed the indexes lost even more, with the S&P500 down nearly 5% and the Nasdaq down more than 7%.

ECB, rates unchanged. Last Thursday, April 11, the ECB kept interest rates at all-time highs while also signaling that it would consider a cut at its next meeting in June. Following the Governing Council meeting in Frankfurt, the ECB reiterated that the benchmark deposit rate will remain at 4% until there is certainty that price pressures have stabilized. Eurozone inflation is now only marginally above the 2% target. However, expectations of a rate cut were shaken by last week's data, which showed a surprise rise in U.S. inflation in March. Investor reaction has been to reduce the odds of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, currently estimated at only 50% by September, and to scale back the number of rate cuts during 2024 for both the ECB and the Bank of England.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Niger: the United States has given the green light for the withdrawal of troops. The request from Niger's military junta to withdraw their 1,000 soldiers, currently deployed in the country to combat Islamic jihad, has been accepted. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, Kurt Campbell, confirmed the agreement during a meeting in Washington with Nigerien Prime Minister Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine, who has been in charge of the government since the coup in July. An American delegation will travel to Niamey to plan the orderly withdrawal. This decision marks a significant shift in the strategy of the USA and France in West Africa, a region where the USA had invested $100 million in a base in Agadez.

(Giulio Ciofini)

Kenya: helicopter crash kills nine individuals, including defense chief. In Egeyo Marakwet County the air crash involved nine people, including the chief of the Armed Forces, General Francis Ogolla. The incident occurred shortly after takeoff from Cheptulel Boys Secondary School in West Pokot County. President William Ruto confirmed the tragedy, noting the loss of one of the nation's most valiant generals during a security assessment mission in the north, aimed at countering local banditry. Two military personnel survived and are currently hospitalized. An investigation into the crash's cause is underway. President Ruto has declared three days of national mourning in honor of the deceased, emphasizing the profound sadness this event brings to the country

(Giulio Ciofini)

Sudan, international humanitarian conference in Paris. An international conference on the humanitarian situation in the country was held in Paris on April 15 on the first anniversary of the start of the war. Two billion euros in aid were pledged. "Today, with this mobilization, our whole presence sends a clear message to the belligerents. We make a solemn appeal for the respect of international humanitarian rights and the protection of the civilian population," French President Emmanuel Macron said at a press conference. The European Commission has allocated 355 million euros in both humanitarian and development funding for Sudan and neighboring countries that are taking on refugees. EU member states have pledged an additional 541 million euros for a total of 896 million from Europe. The United States will provide more than $140 million dollars.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Ethiopia, new clashes between Tigrayans and Amhara. Armed clashes broke out on April 13 in a disputed area between the Tigray and Amhara regions. About 3,000 people left their homes. According to residents, fighting began over the past weekend. The Amhara and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Tigré accuse each other of starting the fighting.

The Amhara National Movement (Nama), in opposition in the regional state, accused the Tplf in a note of launching "an invasion" of the disputed area. Getachew Reda, head of Tigre's interim administration, in turn blamed the "die-hard enemies" of the peace agreement for the recent incidents in a post on X, saying the violence should not be considered the beginning of a conflict between Tigre forces and the federal government or between the neighboring Tigray and Amhara regions.

(Aurelia Puliafito)

Aurelia Puliafito and Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America, Blinken speaks about Israel in Capri. During the G7 meeting in Capri, Italy, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned Iran’s missile attack on Israel, that caused the Israeli response with an airstrike on the city of Isfahan, even if the Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, confirmed that the attack did not cause any damage. Moreover, after the US’s veto used to block the request to confer full United Nations membership for Palestine, Blinken confirmed the commitment to Israel’s security, already backed up with a new national security package of 95 million $ promoted in the US Congress, and to the “de-escalation” of the conflict.

United States of America, Washington “deports” Haitians. More than 70 Haitians have been expelled from the United States and flown back to Haiti, where the political system has collapsed since armed gangs launched an insurrection which completely paralyzed the state. “This is reckless and cruel” said Nicole Phillips, legal director of the group Haitian Bridge Alliance, speaking of the flight which landed in the city of Cap-Haitien and which was described by human rights activists as “inhumane”. “These people are being sent back to an impossible situation where there is no work, no healthcare and no schools” added Nicole Phillips. “On top of that, there is no real Haitian government [...] and no one who can keep these people safe”.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Colombia, the damages of El Niño. In Bogotá, the capital city of Colombia located in the Andes at 2,600 meters above sea level, water is scarce due to the absence of rain. For the first time since 1948, Mayor Carlos Fernando Galán has announced the suspension of water supply for an indefinite period and the need for rationing. Among the causes of this drought, the periodic climatic phenomenon of El Niño is certainly present, which causes a sharp increase in temperatures. Despite the phenomenon being well known in Latin America, the Colombian government did not act in time, now asking its citizens to pay close attention to the use of water resources.

(Alessia Boni)

Haiti, the attempt to fill the political void. Haiti has officially inaugurated a transitional council to address a leadership void by appointing a new prime minister and to reinstate stability in the Caribbean nation plagued by gang violence. Visas to enter the United States have been blocked and many people have been expelled and had to fly back to Haiti.

A proclamation published in the government's official gazette declared the establishment of the Presidential Transition Council, following Prime Minister Ariel Henry's announcement a month ago that he would resign amidst a surge of assaults by armed gangs in the capital city, Port-au-Prince.

(Alessia Boni)

Venezuela, new candidate for the 2024 presidential elections. Following the re-candidacy of President Nicolas Maduro, it seems that the opposition finally has a viable candidate, chosen unanimously by all members, for the presidential elections in the summer of 2024. The Democratic Unity Platform, as well as the coalition of Venezuelan oppositions, has put forward Edmondo Gonzàlez Urrutia, a well-known former ambassador, as its candidate. In fact, the previous candidacies have actually lapsed, this is because Maria Corina Machado, leader of the opposition is prevented by the 15-year sentence of being removed from public office. Whereas the previous opposition candidate was Manuel Rosales, who withdrew his candidature in favour of Urrutia's, following a lengthy confrontation. The Venezuelan Electoral Council has already formalised the new candidature. On the 28 July ballot calls will therefore emerge this new figure, a political analyst and foreign minister before the Chavez era.

(Serena Basso)

Serena Basso, Alessia Boni

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Myanmar, government releases 3,000 prisoners. The Myanmar military junta released more than 3,300 prisoners in a mass amnesty on the Thingyan New Year. In addition, those who remain imprisoned will see their sentences reduced by one-sixth, except for those convicted under laws relating to weapons, terrorism, corruption and drugs. In Myanmar, such concessions are customary during national and Buddhist holidays. Since the coup in February 2021, the military junta has announced several such releases, following the example of the military administrations that had ruled the country in the past. The aim of such amnesties has historically been to portray Myanmar governments as politically magnanimous and legitimate. However, in the past six months, the junta has suffered significant defeats in clashes in several regions of the country.

China, contacts with the US. US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun had a video conference for the first time in almost 18 months following the recent phone call between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping. The Pentagon stated that the two discussed Sino-US relations, emphasizing the importance of 'continuing to open lines of military communication between the two sides'. In addition, both regional and global security issues were discussed, such as the war in Ukraine and the handling of tensions in the South China Sea. On the latter, Austin emphasized the importance of respecting freedom of navigation on the high seas guaranteed by international law while Dong stated that the US 'should recognise China's firm position' and 'respect its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests'.

Francesco Oppia

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

European Council, importance of supporting Ukraine and an immediate ceasefire in Gaza have been reiterated. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, following Zelensky's appeal to European partners during the extraordinary summit in Brussels, reiterated his willingness to support Ukraine and to recognise "the urgent defence needs of Ukraine in the face of a large-scale increase in Russian military attacks throughout the country". Zelensky called for faster EU intervention in support of Ukraine, "just as countries intervened in support of Israel when it was attacked by Iran". The member states also agreed on the urgency of de-escalation in the Middle East and an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, which would also allow for the distribution of humanitarian aid.

(Bianca Franzini)

Croatia, the conservative Hdz party won the parliamentary elections. The conservative party Croatian Democratic Union, Hdz, achieved a clear victory in the recent parliamentary elections in Croatia. The Hdz party won 60 out of 151 seats in parliament, the Social Democratic Party, Sdp, gained 42 seats, and the far-right Movement for the State gained 14. Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, who led the conservatives, said he is ready to "form a new parliamentary majority to form our third government"; to remain in power, the Hdz will need the support of far-right groups.
Voter turnout exceeded 50 per cent, a record for Croatia, which faces the highest inflation rate in the eurozone and challenges related, among others, to irregular immigration and labour shortages.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, sanctions against Israeli settlers. After four months since the proposal, the European Union has finally acted by including four individuals and two entities in the EU sanctions list for human rights, particularly against Palestinian communities in the occupied territories. The sanctions, now applying to a total of 108 individuals and entities, include asset freezes in the EU and a ban on direct or indirect funding for their benefit. The Palestinian Mission to the EU welcomed the decision but also emphasized the need for more concrete actions to address the root causes of Palestinian rights violations. The EU's move follows the requests made by the leaders of the 27 member states in the March European Council, calling for an end to violence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and holding perpetrators of human rights violations accountable.

(Sofia Ena)

EU, no to youth mobility in the post-Brexit era. Despite Brexit, the European Union persists in its commitment to fostering cultural exchanges. The European Commission has indeed presented a proposal to the EU Council to initiate negotiations with the United Kingdom in order to facilitate youth mobility. This initiative is a response to the difficulties encountered after the UK's exit from the EU, including limitations on access and the UK government's abandonment of the Erasmus+ program due to incurred costs and low student participation, partly attributed to a lack of interest in foreign languages. However, the British Government has rejected the proposal, preferring to negotiate bilateral agreements with individual countries.

(Sofia Ena)

Bianca Franzini and Sofia Ena

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Croatia, Conservatives triumph in elections. In the legislative elections on 17 April, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) conservatives led, but with fewer seats than in 2020, predicting complicated negotiations to form a majority. The HDZ won 61 seats, while the Social Democratic Party (SDP) won 42 seats, both far from the 76 needed to govern. The Patriotic Movement, the third force, said it was ready to negotiate. The election campaign was tense, with corruption as a central theme, given the history of the HDZ. The turnout was over 60%, more than 15 percentage points higher than in the previous parliamentary elections in 2020.

Kosovo, Council of Europe says yes to Balkan country's membership The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has voted in favour of Kosovo's accession to the international organisation, with 131 votes in favour, 29 against and 11 abstentions. The final decision will rest with the Council of Europe's Committee of Foreign Ministers, scheduled for mid-May in Strasbourg. Serbia strongly condemned this preliminary decision, calling it shameful and emphasising the lack of basic requirements for human rights and freedom in Kosovo. In contrast, Albania welcomed the vote, seeing it as a historic moment for Kosovo and recognising its progress and potential.

Alessandro Alloro 

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Gulf-Israel: tactical or strategic agreement? Pt.1 Tehran's response to the Israeli attack on the Iranian consular section of Damascus was stemmed thanks to the collaboration between Israeli, American, British, French and some Arab nations forces who repelled drones and missiles from the Islamic Republic. However, the idea of ​​an Arab-Israeli coalition in the sense of a strengthened military alliance is a dream that does not come true. Although pro-Israeli commentators have extolled this collaboration as a sign of a "new Middle East", the situation is more complex. What can be deduced from the analysis of the press of the Gulf countries - in particular the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia - is the fear that the escalation will spread further, to the detriment of their strategic national interests.

(Sara Oldani)

Gulf-Israel: consequences on the normalization process. Pt. 2 If in the short term Iran seems to be the biggest threat and closest to the Gulf monarchies, the structuring of an effective security architecture with the Tel Aviv-Arab Gulf axis is not so obvious. The main consequences of the direct clash between Israel and Iran on the regional system, however, should not be underestimated as further proof that the security of the Gulf actors is still based on the United States and that, despite the Palestinian tragedy, the Iranian threat is perceived justifiable to maintain the normalization (official or unofficial) of these countries with Israel. However, a direct attack by Israel on Iran could affect relations with Arab countries; if the Emirates have often expressed their desire to continue along the path of the Abraham Accords and normalization with the Jewish state, bin Salman's Saudi kingdom finds itself in a difficult balance in which it struggles to adopt a coherent strategy.

(Sara Oldani)

Turkey, the Sultan and Hamas: last Wednesday, the Turkish president caused a scandal with his speech to parliament, in which he compared the terrorist group Hamas to the irregular Kuva-yi Milliye militia, which took part in the war of independence fought between 1919 and 1922 against Greece and the Western powers. The Kemalist opposition protested, accusing the president of wanting to instrumentalise the country's founding history for his own propaganda calculations. Over the weekend, the president hosted Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. After his recent electoral defeats in the local elections, the leader is trying to regain some of the consensus lost among the more conservative electorate by setting himself up as a champion of the Palestinian cause and godfather of the Islamist group.

(Michele Magistretti)

Sara Oldani and Michele Magistretti

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Iran, new UK and US sanctions against Tehran. The new sanctions, adopted in response to the Iranian missile attack on Israel, affect both individuals and entities of the Islamic Republic. The latter include the Minister of Defence, General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani. Last Sunday night, Tehran launched over 300 drones and missiles towards Israel in response to the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. On the British side, sanctions include the freezing of assets in the UK and a ban on entering the country. On the other hand, the US sanctions targeted 16 individuals and various Iranian entities and companies involved in the production of drones or their components.

Palestine, American veto on the resolution for Palestine's UN membership. The resolution tabled by Algeria that would have recognised Palestine's full membership of the 'United Nations' - to date only a non-member 'observer' - saw 12 countries voting in favour, the United Kingdom and Switzerland abstaining, and the only veto from the United States. The Palestinian Authority's response was not long in coming; the latter described the American veto as an 'act of aggression' that will only exacerbate hostilities in the region.

Davide Shahhosseini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandro Alloro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Alessandro Dowlatshahi: Latin America

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Ciofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lisa Pasolini: Human Rights

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa

Serena Basso: Latin America

Sofia Ena: Human Rights, Western Europe and the European Union