While the asymmetric war between Hamas and Israel have continued for two months, victims killed after radical Palestinian movement and continued bombing in the Jewish state and in Gaza strip count 1200 Israeli and 15,899 gazawi, international diplomacies question what will happen after hostilities end.
Armed clashes sadly resumed after a-week break mediated by “dearest” Qatar, that allowed 50 hostages (among which women and children) kidnapped by Hamas’ militias and allies, to be exchanged with 150 Palestinian prisoners in the Jewish state. Yet, it is important to think of a post-war scenario to build a fair, just, sustainable, and lasting peace.
Leaving aside “fanta-politics” or extremist discussions about exterminating both peoples, we will evaluate how much some rebuilding and peace-building perspectives are doable. According to White House’s declarations, Hamas has to be eradicated from Gaza strip as terroristic organization and bring the territory back to Palestinian national authority (PNA), which is chaired by old and delegalized Mahmoud Abbas. After this, negotiations could be restored, based on Oslo Agreements of 1993, and finally implementing the two states solution.
This project has three flaws on Palestinian front, Israeli and reality on the ground. Starting from the latter, as already underlined by numerous analysts, Oslo Agreements did not pave the way to stability and peace: they legitimized Israeli militarization of West bank and expansion Jewish installs in Palestinian land, while Palestine is under a self-government (officially “ad interim” since 30 years) and with limited sovereignty, whose police only controls 18% of West bank, according to Oslo.
On its side, Palestinian national authority, which should administer the territory, lost people’s consensus since years, for being considered Israel’s right hand and only granting status quo and Fatah traditional party’s elite interests. Palestinian population, both in West bank and Gaza, is nowadays discouraged from democratic modalities to undertake a change on ground an in their lives. Israeli occupation stains itself of war crimes and apartheid, as stated by the main human rights organizations (Human rights watch and Amnesty international) and its government, present in Gaza as dictatorship and in West bank as a representative system with no elections since 2007, does not protect them.
Exactly therefore, also in West bank people tend to adhere to violence and armed resistance to occupation. Although global spotlights are set on Gaza, as the attack on the 7th October showed, Hamas’ brigades and Islamic jihad are only the most structured of an organized system of armed militias (other examples are Mujahideen brigades, Al-Nasasser Salah al-Deen brigades and minor forms) operating in the frame of a Joint operation room, that coordinates these brigades in Gaza and West bank.
As a fact, Nablu, Jenin, Ramallah and Tulkarem Palestinian cities are locations of armed clashes between militias and Israeli security forces. As for the current state, thinking of eradicating Hamas and terrorism from Palestinian territories simply naming a puppet president for Gaza (after he lost the elections for this reason) is utopic.
On the other hand, Israeli post-conflict project sees the complete annihilation of the movement governing Gaza, creation of a buffer zone in northern Gaza, gazawi expulsion through Rafah to Egypt. Israeli position is not clear: different voices are heard according to the political party. Far right currently in charge, though, declares being favorable to re-occupation and re-instalment in Gaza, to better control the terror threat. Prime minister Benjamin Natanyahu spoke of “indefinite Israeli control” in Gaza. Biden administration replied refusing Israeli project, affirming “Palestinian territory will remain so and there will be no re-occupation”.
The United states sit in s very complex position. On one side, its preferable relationship with the Jewish partner is not exempt from repercussions; on the other, the risk of exchanged vetos with Arab allies is around the corner. The risk could become true, given the reputational flaw all West is having for its not-managing war in Gaza. Saudi journal al-Sharq al-Awsat accused the United states and the European union of using double standards between Palestinian and Ukrainian victims and of unconditionally supporting Israel defence, pretending not to see humanitarian international law violations.
Who lost this war is, so, not only the hundreds innocent victims and internal refugees with no place to live, but also the international community representing a global order nowadays dismantling.
Though it is undeniable that the United states have activated many diplomatic channels, Qatar and Egypt were the ones contributing to mid-november break. In particular, Qatar could be the main actor, together with other Arab states interested, managing post-war perspectives, symptom of a change in the global axe to east.
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L'Autore
Sara Oldani
Sara Oldani, classe 1998, ha conseguito la laurea triennale in Scienze politiche e relazioni internazionali presso l’Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, sede di Milano e prosegue i suoi studi magistrali a Roma con il curriculum in sicurezza internazionale. Esperta di Medio Oriente e Nord Africa, ha effettuato diversi soggiorni di studio e lavoro in Turchia, Marocco, Palestina ed Israele. Studiosa della lingua araba, vuole aggiungere al suo arsenale linguistico l'ebraico. In Mondo Internazionale Post è Caporedattrice dell'area di politica internazionale, Framing the World.
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Gaza guerra Israele Palestina Diplomazia