Hezbollah in Lebanon: How Iran tries to dominate the Middle East

Following the targeted Israeli airstrike that killed Hamas' number two, Saleh al-Arouri, in his office in Beirut, concerns are rising about the potential extension of the conflict into Lebanon. This apprehension arises not only because Hezbollah, from Lebanon, responded with a barrage of over 60 rockets – neutralized – towards Israel, but also because the IDF (Israel Defence Forces) leadership is realizing that the Gaza invasion did little to weaken Hamas. The perceived failure of the military operation initiated three months ago, along with the 20,000 Palestinian casualties it caused, has garnered significant unpopularity in Israeli public opinion and the international community. This may incentivize Netanyahu to shift the war front northward.

Israel and Lebanon: the birth and role of Hezbollah

Hezbollah is a Lebanese Shiite Islamist and anti-Zionist paramilitary organization. The exact date of its formation is not known, but it started as a small group of fighters aided by the Iranian paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. It played a crucial role in the summer of 1982 in repelling the Israeli Defense Forces' Operation Peace in Galilee in the country's south. Although the IDF succeeded in expelling the PLO from Beirut, Hezbollah emerged from the conflict as a new influential group in Lebanon and a significant adversary of Israel in the following decades.

From paramilitary organization to political party

Hezbollah's most significant success in the last forty years was the guerrilla warfare against Israeli forces still occupying parts of southern Lebanon, leading to the Israeli army's withdrawal in May 2000 without a peace agreement, unlike those with Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinians. This victory earned the terrorist organization praise across the Middle East.

After the Israeli withdrawal, Hezbollah refused to disarm; its role shifted from a resistance party to one that dominates Lebanese politics through force. In 2005, the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri – then the country's most powerful Sunni politician – was killed in a massive truck bomb explosion in Beirut. The murder remains unclear, but three Hezbollah members were accused by a UN-supported tribunal. The Shiite group was later accused of other murders, mainly targeting Christians, politicians, and intellectuals critical of Hezbollah and Tehran's role behind the scenes.

Persian influence extends beyond Lebanon

Hezbollah actively contributes to spreading Iran's influence throughout the Arab world, not only in Lebanon. Through its militias, it manages to dominate Iraq's political scene, with the ability to disrupt government formation after elections or prevent the appointment of presidents. In both Lebanon and Iraq, other political forces present have little power against Iranian influence, even if they are Shiite forces or manage to secure numerous seats in national parliaments. By supporting and organizing paramilitary groups and forming resistance units, Tehran has created a model enabling it to control the security policies and decisions of the governments in countries it has infiltrated. Hezbollah's model has not only been applied in support of Shiite forces but also in favor of leftist or Arab nationalist parties, as long as they oppose Israel.

Not everyone in the Middle East agrees

Some of Iran's positions have caused tensions with other Arab countries. Hezbollah's most controversial decision was to send thousands of fighters to Syria since 2013 to support Assad against rebels, including militants linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Since then, Hezbollah's image in the Arab world has changed to that of a sectarian Shiite force fighting Sunni rebels, with the ultimate goal of expanding Iran's power. Tehran's behavior received a similar reception in the region when it decided to support the Houthi rebels in Yemen's civil war, leading Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to join the United States in classifying this militia as a terrorist organization.

Hezbollah Hegemony in Lebanon toward sunset?

In 2016, Hezbollah ensured the election of its Christian ally Michel Aoun as the President of Lebanon, subsequently securing a majority in the parliamentary elections. The system began to falter in 2019 with growing citizen discontent over the mismanagement of the Lebanese economic collapse and frustration over decades of corruption involving the party. In late 2019, mass protests began in Beirut, demanding the removal of these political forces, which were violently suppressed. Voters did not forget during the 2022 elections, causing Hezbollah to lose its parliamentary majority.

Iran's power remains stable

Despite this period of internal crisis, Hezbollah's presence remains stable in the Middle East due to its military strengthening, boasting 100,000 well-trained fighters. Leader Hassan Nasrallah claims to have precision-guided missiles capable of hitting anywhere in Israel, preventing ships from reaching the Mediterranean coast, and drones capable of carrying out specific operations or gathering intelligence.

Forty years after its emergence during the peak of the Israeli invasion in Lebanon in 1982, the party has transformed from a worn-out organization into the most heavily armed group in the Middle East, capable of attracting global attention.

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Translated by Stefania Errico