Warsaw and EU’s future

A few weeks to parliamentary elections on 15^th October in Poland, it is hard to foresee who will win and election campaign is still on.

Ultra-conservative coalition Right United (ZP-PiS), representing current Moraviecki government, is on top of pools with 38%, a number that guarantees majority to form government. The opposition is led by Civic Coalition (KO, center-right), guided by Donald Tusk, under 30%, decreasing from the beginning of the election campaign.

Former president of European Council is sure to gain back the distance from the coalition, after hundreds of citizens took to the streets against human rights violations committed by government in the last eight years. The true enigma is the possibility of left and moderate parties becoming allies, which could conquer majority in the Chamber. Konfederacja – extreme, liberal right list, with 9% is a power to watch.

Pools show a very fragmented political landscape, due to a tough election campaign where home questions mix with European.

One of the core issues is migration, object of four referendum taking place the same day as the elections. Citizens will be asked wether they want to remove the barrier at the border with Belarus and wether they agree with the European forced relocation mechanism of asylum seekers.

On the migration crisis, Warsaw had already built a wall with Brussels when, together with Orban, it postponed the agreement on Migration and Asylum to end of June. In election campaign, Right United and Konfederacja presented the issue as a matter of home security, declaring to be ready to install check spots at the border with Slovakia, if necessary, while the opposition invites electors to boycott referendum.

A crucial topic on debate is civic rights. In the last eight years, the conservative government has ignored every EU call on rule of law, having 35.4 million-euros Recovery Fund blocked that were addressed to Poland. If restrictions to media and freedom, judiciary body independence and LGBT people’s right to abortion put in place by Moraviecki government cooled the relationship with Brussels, Tusk and left parties propose to end restrictions. With feminist movement mobilizing, that went to the streets in recent years and the promise to open to civil unions for same sex people, oppositions guarantee a thaw of relationships with EU powers.

War in Ukraine was less discussed in the election campaign, at least until mid-September. A few weeks ago, the agreement with Brussels ended that allowed Kiev to export Mais to Europe – the Commission did not renew it. Warsaw decided to suspend import, as an answer to Polish farmers’ protests, who represent a significant part of citizens.

Zelensky appealed against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia in WTO and Polish president Duda retorted by suspending weapons delivery to Ukraine. It is not clear if this opposition is merely strategic for the elections, but it signals the umpteenth crisis between Poland and the EU. Here too Warsaw can count on allies, though: Orban opposed weapons delivery in the past, and newly elected first minister of Slovakia, left neonationalist, pro-Russia Robert Fico.

In a few weeks Warsaw could be even farther from Brussels, or re-open a new era of reconciliation. No matter the color of the government after the vote, a strong action is expected from Warsaw on European politics. In June elections will be held for the European Chamber and the first months of government will surely be election campaign field.

SOURCES:

https://euractiv.it/section/politica/news/rapporto-ue-sullo-stato-di-diritto-permangono-alcune-preoccupazioni-sistemiche-soprattutto-in-polonia-e-ungheria/

https://it.euronews.com/2023/10/01/polonia-lopposizione-scende-in-strada-in-vista-elle-elezioni-del-15-ottobre

https://www.linkiesta.it/2023/02/polonia-protagonista-europa-ucraina-stato-di-diritto/

https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/09/25/poland-introduces-checks-on-slovak-border-to-curb-irregular-migration/

https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2023/07/31/news/joana_pillola_abortiva_polonia_processo-409525057/amp/

https://www.gay.it/polonia-manifestazione-tusk-diritti-civili-lgbtqia-aborto

https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2023/09/04/polonia-i-4-referendum-voluti-dalla-destra-al-governo-alle-elezioni-del-15-ottobre-perche-sono-il-suo-asso-nella-manica/7275068/amp/

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/poland-ukraine-grain-war-escalates-dangerously/

https://tg24.sky.it/mondo/2023/10/01/slovacchia-fico-ucraina-migranti