Orbán’s bet: how Hungary challenges the EU on Ukraine war and adhesion, once again threatening European cohesion

Since the beginning pf war in Ukraine, the European Unition has promptly condemned Russian invasion show strong unity and contributing to creating a solid feeling of belonging to European values by Western liberal democracies. Not even during 2020 pandemic, Europe showed to respond in such a compact way before international crisis. Although, also in the symphony of (apparent) perfection, a discording note always exists. This time, it was Hungary.

From the beginning, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán adopted a point of view very distant from other western European Member States. During 2022 election campaign, not only did he present himself as “representative of peace” that would shield the Country from the economic and energy consequences of the conflict: he also fostered his connections with Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin. Since the star of the war, Orbán was the only Western European leader that had met Putin at a New Belt Road meeting in China last October.

After many UN and EU meetings on Russia-Ukraine war, Orbán reputedly refused to implement more imponent sanctions against the aggressor. Therefore, no shock about the recent news according which Hungarian Foreign Affairs Minister Péter Szijjártó reiterates Hungary’s decision not to militarily support Ukraine sending weapons: “instead of weapons, peace should be brought. The more weapons, the longer the war. The longer the war, more deaths”.

Not only is Budapest’s decision not to unconditionally support Ukraine is very far from Western allies’ take: it only represents an attitude against the current of Orbán closest allies in the European Union, i.e. Visegrád group (Poland, Czeck Republic and Slovakia, beside Hungary itself). In particular, differences emerged with Warsaw, as, while Hungary and Poland often were together against Bruxelles, they showed an increasing difference in behavior towards Russia.

Besides the current conflict, Hungary recently opposed Kiev’s adhesion to the European Union. Ukraine obtained Candidate status in June 2022 and recently Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán did not fail in having it known Budapest expresses many doubts regarding Ukraine’s matching to the European membership. Initial statements were followed by a resolution by Hungarian Prime Minister’s party, Fidesz, to the Parliament asking the government not to support the beginning of Ukraine’s adhesion dialogues.

Viktor Orbán warned EU leaders they could not reach consensus on starting negotiations and declared the topic should not be put on the next European Council meeting of 14^th and 15^th December. Orbán expressed doubts on cohesion and EU agricultural policies regarding Ukraine’s adhesion, alleging EU leaders should attentively evaluate impacts before starting negotiations.

This move is seen as Orbán’s strategy to pressure Bruxelles before the European Council, as blackmail to get cohesion funds destinated to Hungary, currently freezed due to rule of law violations. 6.3 billion euros are for “conditioning system” regarding issues on public procurement and conflict of interests, while the remaining funds are bound to topics like “right to academic freedom” and LGBTQ+ rights.

It is now clear Viktor Orbán is a significant obstacle to EU’s strategic geopolitical ambitions both internally and externally, as shown by two letters sent from the EU Council to European Council President Charles Michel. This happens in a context where community treaty review is continuously discussed, especially on unanimity vote in the Council. Not only does it paralyze European politics: it keeps the whole continent hostage of a government that represents 2.2% of community population.

Budapest’s positions are increasingly interpreted based on Hungarian relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, thus underlining a dear Russian ally in destabilizing European politics from the inside.

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