On 19th September 2023, Azerbaijan announced a “military operation” to demilitarize Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan territory. It is important to highlight Nagorno-Karabakh doesn’t enjoy the United Nation’s acknowledgment as independent state. This conflict, started in 1991, developed as the most long-lasting of the post-soviet region in Eurasia, characterized by stall phases, negotiates and conflict restarts.
In September 2020, a conflict escalated that lasted six weeks, ending the 10th November, when Russia mediated a cease fire. This conflict caused the loss of more than 7,000 military and around 170 civils, with a high number of wounded. The agreement stated Azerbaijan would take over seven districts in the border with Nagorno-Karabakh previously under Armenian control. Furthermore, a substantial part of Nagorno-Karabakh is now under Azerbaijan administration, while the rest is under a Russian peacekeeping force supervision and is governed by self-endorsed local authorities.
As psychology teaches, tensions tend to come back, though, and the same principle applies to armed conflicts. Although negotiations following the 44 days of combat in 2020, is was clear that the conflict was possibly to begin again. On 19th September 2023, il Arzeibaijan Defense Minister announced a new “counter-terrorism operation” aiming at “settling constitutional order” in Nagorno-Karabakh separatist region, known as Artsakh. This intervention was lite by the loss of 4 military and 2 civils in Khojavend district, in Azerbaijan, due to the explosion of an anti-tank mine. According to Baku, this mine would be put by Armenian rebels.
It is worth noticing that the language used in the war declaration seems to strongly look back at Putin’s declaration before Ukanian invasion. Non only the language, also the Azer military clothing seem to emulate Russians’. Moreover, military means used by Azer Military Force, formerly located along the Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia border with the excuse of military training, present a reverse “A”. This Symbol, recalling the mathematic symbol of universal quantificator (∀), almost looks to underline Baku’s ambitions. This symbol has rapidly become a distinctive trait of Azerbaijan military initiative propaganda The modus operandi in the nation clearly follows a similar path to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The main dilemma Armenia faces is its lack of sufficiently influential allies. Nagorno-Karabakh is an isolated region, where around 12,000 Armenians live, located at the feet of mountains and surrounded by Azer territory all around, acknowledged as such by the international community. Inhabitants of this enclave, known as Artsakh, strongly oppose to accept Azerbaijan’s requests.
Azerbaijan announced the military operation after strongly weakening Artsakh population, putting them in an extremely difficult situation. Starting from December 2022, Azerbaijan imposed an almost complete economic embargo on the region, keeping it from accessing essential import goods, like food and medicines. Moreover, there’s a strongly unbalanced military power, where Azer are way superior. In the past, Armenia used to have a powerful ally, Russia. In an interview Azer prime minister said Armenian security was based on Russia for the 99.9% of its defensive approach. However, this dependence ceased due to war in Ukraine, since Armenia prime minister expressed views on Russia not possible a little time before. On the other side, Azerbaijan ha consolidated alliances with influential nations, among which Turkye, with significant military treaties and weapons shopping, and Israel, which was Azeibaijan’s main weapon provider between 2017 and 2019. It was revealed that suicidal drones used in the region, that hit Nagorno-Karabakh and Artsakh Republic, were made in Israel. Western states, USA and European states included, tend to avoid sending weapons to Azerbaijan, due to doubts on their possible use, but there is an exception worth noticing: Italy. Italian company Leonardo signed an agreement with Azer Defense Minister the 8th June to sell military transportation planes. This agreement reflect Italy’s wish to access cheap energy fuels, making it Azerbaijan’s main client in this field.
20th September morning, Nagorno-Karabakh authorities announced having agreed a cease fire with the mediation of peacekeeping forces in the region. Thia agreement implies de-weaponing all separatists’ military forces in Nagorno-Karabakh and all Armenian forces withdrawal. Practically, the agreement is a win for Azerbaijan, for it allows it to reach many goals, among which demilitarization of separatist forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. There was a legitimate fear that a new war could arise between Azerbaijan and Armenia for the control on Nagorno-Karabakh, and this cease fire agreement was crucial to avoid this scenario. However, the serious question about citizens’ security in Nagorno-Karabakh stays, given the risk of a new ethnic cleansing that could hit Armenians, who are most of the population in the region.
https://www.ilpost.it/2023/09/...
https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/nagorno-karabakh-conflict-visual-explainer
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L'Autore
Valentina Ruaro
Sono laureata in Scienze Internazionali e Diplomatiche presso l'Università di Bologna e attualmente sto frequentando il corso di laurea magistrale in Studi sulla Sicurezza, l'Intelligence e la gli studi strategici, con un percorso accademico che include prestigiose istituzioni come l'Università di Glasgow, l'Università di Trento e l'Università Karlova di Praga.
Nel campo accademico, collaboro come autrice per Mondo Internazionale, affrontando temi fondamentali sul ruolo delle organizzazioni internazionali, con particolare attenzione all’Unione Europea e alla NATO. Inoltre, per coinvolgere un pubblico più ampio, produco anche contenuti su Instagram per MI Post. Attualmente, sto svolgendo un tirocinio presso il NATO Defense College a Roma, dove approfondisco le mie competenze nell'ambito dell'educazione, della sicurezza e della difesa.
Ho maturato esperienza nel settore della ricerca lavorando per l'European Army Interoperability Centre di Bruxelles, concentrandomi sull'interoperabilità degli stati membri e sul ruolo esterno dell’UE.
I miei interessi ruotano attorno alla geopolitica, alla CSDP dell'UE, alla difesa NATO, con un focus geografico sulla regione Euro-Atlantica e il Medio Oriente, in particolare la Siria.
Motivata dall'empatia e da una determinazione incessante per il cambiamento, sono pronta a continuare a plasmare conversazioni e azioni nel campo della sicurezza internazionale e della difesa.
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I hold a Bachelor's degree in International Relations and Diplomatic Affairs from the University of Bologna, and I am currently pursuing a Master's degree in Security, Intelligence, and Strategic Studies. My academic journey includes esteemed institutions such as the University of Glasgow, the University of Trento, and Charles University in Prague.
Within the academic realm, I collaborate as an author for Mondo Internazionale, addressing pivotal topics concerning the roles of international organisations, particularly focusing on the European Union and NATO. Additionally, I engage a broader audience by creating content on Instagram for MI Post. I am currently interning at the NATO Defense College in Rome, further honing my skills in the education, security, and defence sectors.
I have gained research experience while working at the European Army Interoperability Centre in Brussels, where I focused on member states' interoperability and the EU's external role.
My interests revolve around geopolitics, EU Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), and NATO defence, with a geographical focus on the Euro-Atlantic region and the Middle East, specifically Syria.
Driven by empathy and an unwavering determination for positive change, I am prepared to continue shaping discussions and actions in the field of international security and defence.
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Nagorno-Karabakh Russia Azerbaijan Armenia