Lion Udler, expert of the Middle East: Iran has a precise project and Europe runs some risks

Translated by Alessandra Fumagalli 

We focus on the present twisting in the Middle East, a normalization of the relations between Israel and the Saudi Arabia that seems farther. Hamas’ terroristic attack in South Israel, the war’s escalation, and the hypothetical scenarios that could present both for Israel and for Europe, if the Libano’s front would open, without forgetting the risk of more than a million Palestinian people, who are entrapped in the North part of the Gaza Strip. All this and much more was debated by the ex Israeli special force Lion Udler, who is the present expert of the Middle East.

Lion Udler has his theory about the shocking attack, following the Da’ash way (Isis), led by Hamas in the South of Israel and the event linked with the security, that seems to question the Israele Security agencies, like Shin Bet, il Mossad, e l’Aman. As far as Egypt is concerned, the fact that it warned Israel of a possible attack, he remains skeptical. The expert himself, based on the affirmations released by the Minister, who affirmed not to have received any advise, speaks about fake news and he excludes the possibility that there would be a warning. «The failure of preventing this type of attack isn’t linked with the work of the intelligence, but conceptually, it lies on the principle used in the last few years. Israel believed that the Palestinian help, with the mediation of Egypt, Qatar and the support of the Arabic Countries, linked with an economical and social support, would have calmed Hamas - states Udler - Israel believes that, through these mediations, through work permits (about 20 million) for those workers living in the Gaza Strip who went to Israel through the acquisition of more freedom, it wouldn’t have been any violences as the one we saw».

The situation in the last years was quite similar: each month, Qatar sent an amount of money to the Gaza Strip, about 30 million dollars; moreover, Qatar allocates an amount of money for some projects that were developing in the Gaza Strip. for example, let’s talk about a small power station, whose fourth power generator started working in August 3, 2023, even though this wasn’t independent on Israel. Indeed, nowadays Qatar pays the Gaza’s electricity to an Israeli company. The Qatar’s investment in Gaza for the construction of this small power station aimed the electric autonomy of Gaza, that would have always been financed by the Arabian Peninsula, making Israel a small supplier as compared to what is has done so far. This fact and the work permits, according to Udler, released the tensions, and, for some time, worked despite some operations and severe conflicts in the last two years. But they were engagements that lasted only a few days. «There were such operations, because Hamas wanted something more, but they were conflicts that lasted a few time, because the Gaza Strip’s inhabitants and citizens started to have some benefits and advantages».

As far as the Abraham Accords, signed by the hereditary Prince Bin Salman with the aim of normalizing the relations between Israel and the Middle East, there were requests of more freedom and independence for the Palestinians. As for this, Udler states: «With these agreements, they managed to gain more rights and they were working on this, in order to gain a more stability for the Palestinians. Meetings between Israel and Saudi Arabia involved also the Palestinians, so that Saudi Arabia, by signing the agreement, could say and show to the Palestinians that they wanted some benefits too».

«In my personal opinion, Iran, Hams and the Islamic Jihad worked together in order to interrupt this normalization. For Iran a normalization would represent a general failure. For these terroristic agencies, it is inconceivable a situation of peace, because they would not be allowed to say their opinion, justifying the violence and the hate for the Western Countries».

According to Udler, Hams, together with other terroristic groups, had planned this attack at least one year before, but without a specific date. It was the moment when Iran understood that there would be such signature for the normalization of the relationships with Israel that there was a turning point that stated the permission, for Israel, to go forward.

Udler, about the fact that the area where there had been opened the breach in the wall, that divided the Israel by the Gaza’s one, was lacking, or almost, of soldiers and why there were cameras and robotic means, states: «As part of the military thought, the Israel intelligence relies on advances means and, since it is very sophisticated, it was believed that the lack of concrete messages meant that there were any planned attack. The day when the attack occurred, not only was celebrated Shabbat, but also Simchat Torah, that marks the conclusion of the annual cycle of public Torah readings, and that’s the reason why there was a lack of staff. Beside the fact that there was any thought that could suppose such attack».

It wasn’t a chance that Hamas chose that day, that occurred also during the anniversary of the Kippur’s war. The expert thinks that the Hamas’ perfect military training is thanks to some teachings of Iran. «I think that behind this military training there are some experts of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. But the preparation didn’t cover the entire training, because they were more prepared. They were taught to use the paraglider, that would not be possible in Gaza. It is likely that the number of military men were trained in Lebanon. Indeed, it is impossible that such an amount of people can try to train in the Gaza Strip without the supervision of Israel».

Udler thinks that it is impossible that some of them were trained in the Sinai territories, but he also thinks that Palestinian people, living in the Gaza Strip, had crossed the Rafah, or one of the other checkpoints like Salah ad Din Gate, reaching the Egyptian airports, in order to go to Lebanon or Iran. Moreover, about the presence of paraglider in Gaza, he observes that tourists or civili usually used these means, but they create neither problems, nor suspects, because they are sporadic and rare presences. While such a great amount of people, like the one that parachuted within the Israel territory, should have been noted and should have aroused suspicions. As in 2011, the paraglider was hastily used during one of the Hamas’ attacks towards Israel, but without any success. As in the South of Lebanon, where in the past Hezbollah’s representatives had tried to have the same military approach.

About the hypothetical scenarios that could be opened if the North collapsed and about the cross threats by Huti, in Yemen, by Hezbollah in Lebanon e by other Arabic and Iraqi terroristic groups, Udler has no doubts: «Today it has become a possibile scenario. This is the Iranian project, a project thought by Qassam Suleimani, an Iranian military officer who served in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and commander of the Quds Force, killed by the Americans in 2020. He had the idea of surrounding Israel with troops armed with drones, rockets, missiles, and other armaments».

Indeed, nowadays, in the North of Lebanon there is Hezbollah with 150,000 missiles, rockets, and drones, Hamas in the Gaza Strip with 15,000/20,000 drones, rockets and missiles. There are also Houthi in Yemen that are part and financed by Iran. Indeed, the majority of the armaments that the Houthi have are Irani, except for some produced in Yemen, but they are produced thought Irani techniques. Moreover, in Syria there are Shiitic armies, who were put together by Qassem Suleimani during the war against Da’ash, that remained in Syria after the conflict for the Caliphate, in order to maintain an outpost. In Iraq there are the Shiitic armies of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and other newborn armies, that se Irani armaments like rockets, missiles and drones. Eventually, in Iran there are two armies, the National and the Revolutionary Guards that seems to be another army and is the most powerful. «It is likely that these armies decide to revolt against Israel, risking a spreading of the conflict. At the moment the war will enter into full swing and further de-escalate what is already in place. This could happen if Israel begins the ground operation».

Iran will wait till the propitious moment

According to Udler it is likely that Iran will start observing, because it will sure have its plan. Accord to the ex Special Force, the fact that Iran is keeping the armies surrounding Israel could be the fact that Iran is waiting for Israel to weaken or wear out, in order to attack in the propitious moment. «It is not a chance that Israel, from the very beginning of the operation of the war, asked for support to America for the armaments. This is because Israel is already taking it into account. The enrollment of 300 million reservists shows it. Israel didn’t need so much reservists to cover the Gaza Strip, but it is already training 60 million other. In this way, all its fronts would be opened». Indeed, the soldiers and the reservists would be dislocated on each borders and should be training to refresh the techniques and become operative again. «360 million reservists operating in Israel, which is like Lombardy, is an exorbitant number. Indeed, Russia, during its invasion of Ucraine, tried to enroll 300 volunteers, but only 180 million went there. These points reminds me the fact that Israel is already expecting a big regional war and it has been already asked for support by Americans for the armaments. Armaments that Israeli military men don’t need , because their reserves are now full of them». It is likely, indeed, that when the munitions start to finish, they will need immediately the armaments.

The number of terrorist in Gaza goes from 20 to 30 thousands, a smaller number than the million and hundred people that should be evacuated, and for which also Europe and America asked for a slowdown of the operation in order to allow the civil to run for life. «30 thousands soldiers are needed to fight against Hamas’ terrorists in the Gaza Strip - without mentioning those that flew and are hosted in Qatar and in other regions - Israel enrolled ten times more and has the possibility to enrolled 60 thousands other».

When and whether the conflicts broadens, it will depend only on Teheran, the expert says, the propitious moment should be when the Israeli army became more tired. As far as the Israel’s declaration and the announce made by the government to more than a million Palestinian to abandon the Gaza Strip before the land attack, the fact that hundreds of thousands civil could die due to the terroristic Hamas’ policy and the closure of the Rafah Border Crossing, Udler states «It isn’t true that they don’t know where to go. The Gaza Strip is not so small, because who says that, doesn’t know the Gaza Strip. It is true that Gaza Strip is not so enormous, but people can move from North to South. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), thorough its propaganda about the attacks asked to more than a million people to go to the South. In order to avoid victims and injured people among civil, on the contrary Hamas asked to Palestinians to remain in their houses, using them as human shield. Israel, indeed, wants to enter the zone to look for these 30 thousand terrorists, home by home, area by area, but not to kill civil, otherwise it shall warn every attack».

According to Udler, people who could cross not only the Rafah Border Crossing, but also the other checkpoint, like Salah ad Din gate in the South, that goes towards Egypt. The problem is that Egypt fears a refugee invasion, and that these refugee will remain in Egypt. «Also the fact that al Sisi has imposed the condition that only 2000 people per day can cross the border, in order to better manage the migration flow, in order to distribute them among other countries, like Europe».

As far as Da’ash (Isis) and its presence in Gaza are concerned, he explains how they are in the uncontrolled Sinai areas and they are almost all extreme Palestinian and Neo-radicalized with the Islamic Jihad «Egypt knows this».

About the risk of Europe there was a deep thought with three reasons linked with the dangers. The first risk is that, if Palestinian enter Sinai and cross the Gaza’s borders, there will be the risk of another migration flux in Europe. The second risk is the internal terrorism linked with radicalized young people in Europe, as already happened in France: «Unfortunately, Europe must adapt to what is happening and trying to organize with potential plans to fight against terroristic attack». The third risk is the causing of a regional war, that could involve some European countries.

As far as hostages are concerned, the situation isn’t clear «Probably, they are even more important than the civil. They will be used as exchange with the Palestinian prisoners or as war’s negotiation. There are definitive numbers yet, they could be 130/150. Some of them have been kidnapped but are in good conditions, some other are injured, and if the injury were soft, they could be still alive, moreover there have been brought from the Israeli territories to Gaza also some deaths». Unfortunately, also the bombing makes the difference, that could kill some hostages. As the division of them between Hams and Islamic Jihad. «For prudence, the verification made by IDF are to be waited. The same young people that have been hit during the rave are difficult to locate and the embassies have to collaborate».

As far as Da'ash in Gaza, he states that it is only a small group of Gaza’s Palestinians. «It isn’t true that they met with Isis in Siria or in Iraq. The Isis’ Palestinian faction in Gaza radicalized on site. It is an extremist faction, that Hamas controls in the past yers, avoiding it to grow. It feared what actually happened, that is a further loss by its members. In this way, instead of not letting it grow, Hamas involved it in this terroristic attack.

Some of them would be fled and stayed in Sinai and joined other jihadist groups as Egyptians, according to the expert, due to the retaliation that Hamas had towards this small group of jihadis. As far as the terroristic attack is concerned, Udler states «Hamas gathered all the Palestinian organization, by delivering them instructions about what to do. Among them, at least a small group of Isis, members of the Palestinian Authority, from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine together with the democratic battalion and other small realities.

Part of Isis arrived at Kibbutz of Sufa, where there have been found flags of the Caliphate, the Koran, a praying carpet and a vademecum reporting the Isis and al-Qaeda sermons. - Udler concludes - As in Kibbutz Miflasim, where there have been found maps, and instruction on how to attack, how many people lived, how many military men and how long did they take to arrive». It was all planned and by some documents found on some pick-ups, it is clear that the plan was already prepared in 2022.

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