Between tensions and crucial decisions: elections in Taiwan

Translated by Elisa Bruni

Taiwan’s presidential election on January 13 constitutes a crucial moment in the political history of the island, having significant implications on its future and on international relationships in the region of East Asia. The geopolitical context is quite complicated; as the tense relationship between the People’s Republic of China (henceforth "China") and the Republic of China (henceforth "Taiwan") is becoming increasingly evident, the election results will not only determine the political leadership of the country, but it will also influence the relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.

The frontrunner Lai Ching-te, candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and current Vice President of Taiwan, focused his electoral campaign on the choice between democracy and autocracy. He stated that he was the only candidate who could protect democracy and autonomy in Taiwan by preserving the status quo and not seeking independence, even though he formerly supported it. As far as the defence policy is concerned, should Lai be elected he would further increase its budget, commit to maintaining the extended conscription at one year of service, focus on asymmetric warfare strategies and develop a national defence industry, continuing the plan of the former administration. Lai himself confirmed this vision in an interview for “The Japan News”, where he states: “We don’t wish for war and we won’t start one ourselves. But by not fearing war and making preparations during peacetime, this prevents war, and we can have peace.” Amongst the candidates, Lai appears to be the most inclined to pursue a friendly relationship with other democracies, especially the United States and Japan, since he considers them to be essential for maintaining the island’s safety and ending the economic dependency from China. In the same interview Lai declared that “Taiwan and Japan are like a family”. Lastly, Lai rejects the so called “1992 Consensus”, an unofficial agreement by which there would be only one China from a cultural and historical standpoint, because he believes it would make Taiwan renounce its sovereignty. This choice may be an obstacle for a possible dialogue with mainland China, since the country considers the acknowledgement of the “1922 Consensus” as the precondition for any type of communication between the parties.

According to the polls, second in the race is Koumintang’s presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih. While Lai Ching-te’s campaign was focused on the dichotomy between democracy and autocracy, Hou Yu-ih’s one is centered around the choice between peace and war. In a bid to counteract the increasing pressure from China, Hou Yu-ih presents himself as a protector of the peace, defining a strategy that could balance military deterrence with a renewed attention to dialogue. In an essay recently published by “Foreign Affairs” Hou stated: “A strong military will help deter aggression and keep at bay any prospect of war in the Taiwan Strait. But peace also requires dialogue, and I will seek to interact constructively with Beijing in ways consistent with the Republic of China’s constitution and its laws. That interaction will lead to de-escalation”. In line with this vision, in the same essay Hou declares to be against independence and insists upon the necessity of settling differences pacifically between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, in accordance with the standard of the three Ds: deterrence, dialogue and de-escalation. Just as Lai did, Hou highlights the importance of the relationship between the United States and Japan, since the latter could play a significant role in supporting the USA in case of conflict. Unlike Lai, Hou supports the “1992 Consensus" and declares that he intends to pursue official interactions based on a standard of mutual non-recognition of sovereignty and mutual non-denial of jurisdiction.

Lastly, Ko Wen-je stands out as an outsider: he is a candidate for the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) and represents an alternative to the main parties of the island. Ko argues that the best option for Taiwan would be, at the moment, to keep the status quo, explicitly stating that it would currently be illogical to discuss unification or independence, as both options are inaccessible. Nevertheless, he considers dialogue between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait to be essential in order to maintain the status quo. Ko stated: “The two sides of Taiwan Strait must restart the dialogue mechanism as soon as possible to resolve differences and avoid conflicts and to work together to maintain peace and stability.” However, he refused to validate the “1992 Consensus", saying: “If the 1992 Consensus is a prerequisite, it is not going to lead us very far because the ’92 Consensus in Taiwan, the whole image of it has already been smeared.” As far as the relationship with the USA is concerned, Ko asserts that Taiwan should seek a “dynamic equilibrium" between the USA and China, shaping its policies each time according to which side is the strongest one.

During the electoral campaign, Beijing tried to influence the election outcome so as to facilitate a greater integration between the island and the mainland, favoring opposition candidates open to dialogue, in an attempt to prevent Taiwan from gaining independence “de facto". The Chinese government organized its pressure campaign on four sides: political, militaristic, economical and mediatic.

On the political front, the People’s Republic has announced through Zhang Zhijun, president of “China's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait”, that the presidential elections on the island will lead to a choice between war and peace. Meanwhile, a series of violations of Taiwaniese airspace happened, causing China to impose economic sanctions on many Taiwanese products, announcing possible retaliatory action right before the elections. In addition, China is conducting a media campaign aimed at discreding the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and persuading Chinese voters that USA's support might not be as steady as it seems. However, there are studies in political science suggesting that voters are more susceptible to misinformation only in certain conditions, specifically when most of them are uninterested in politics and have no previous party affiliations. If the voters have already sided, the campaigns of the People’s Republic tend to be ineffective. In 2020, the propaganda that aimed at discouraging voters from supporting current president Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP were, in fact, unsuccessful, since she won the election by a wide margin.

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