THE RISE OF INDIA AS A SUPERPOWER

With more than one billion and a half citizens, India is nowadays not only the largest democracy in the world but also the most populated country on the planet, superseding China at the beginning of 2023. New Delhi has risen in fifth place in terms of GDP showing an outstanding growth – around 5% yearly – in the last decade. Analysts say that in 2028 India will overtake both Japan and Germany, becoming the third-largest economy worldwide after the U.S. and China. This outstanding economic development has been driven by the services industry: from call centres to scientific data research, several transnational corporations have offshored their activities in India. There are two main factors which have driven this shift, namely the comparatively low wages and the widespread use of English in the country, the latter one as a positive inheritance of the Indian colonial past. India has been furthermore benefiting from the displacement from China of American and European factories. Due to both American trade limitations imposed on Peking and the growing Chinese wages, multinational enterprises such as Apple have already moved around 10% of their production to India. What is more, the Asian giant possesses one of the largest diasporas at the global level, counting more than 18 million emigrants. Many of them are well-educated students who satisfy the constant need of Western societies in terms of skilled labour, representing at the same time a tool to exert India’s soft power abroad. For instance, the current CEO of Google and the Prime Minister of the UK are both of Indian origin.

Showing these numbers, it is easy to understand why India plays an increasingly crucial role in the current multipolar system that has originated from US’s difficulties in consolidating its world hegemony during the last two decades. In this regard, India’s positioning in the ongoing mounting rivalry between the United States and China could change the current balance of power.

Looking at modern history, Indian governments have historically adopted a non-aligned stance. Since the independence from the British empire in 1947, Nehru and his successors have depicted themselves as representatives of the global south, harshly criticizing the international world order built up by Westerners at the end of the Second World War. As proof of this, India is currently one of the founding members of the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) a geopolitical forum created to reunite the most important emerging economies as well as to challenge the U.S. dominance. Moreover, the current Indian government has so far refused to denounce the Russian aggression in Ukraine, strengthening by contrast its commercial ties with Moscow. Apart from the historical linkages between the two countries - Russia has been the main supplier of weapons to India up to now - New Delhi needs commodities to feed its steady economic growth. From this perspective, buying Russian oil and gas at a discount price due to Western sanctions constitutes an excellent opportunity to exploit.

At the same time, though, India fears the rising hegemony of its powerful neighbor, China, with which it fought even a war in 1962 because of the two States opposing claims on the shared thousand-kilometer-long Himalayan frontier. The dispute is not over yet and there were still skirmishes at the border in 2020. The dispute is not over yet and there were still skirmishes at the border in 2020. Additionally, the border issue overlaps with the longstanding Indian-Pakistani tensions in Kashmir. Today Islamabad represents s one of the main partners of Peking, playing a crucial role in the Belt and Road Initiative envisaged by Xi Jin Ping. Consequently, India looks at the Western block to guarantee its safety, willingly accepting to become part of the QUAD, a security agreement envisaged by the U.S. that also encompasses Japan and Australia, intending to restrain Chinese expansion both in Asia and in the Pacific area. Because of all these aspects, Washington has started courting India, proposing convenient trade deals, mostly in the defense sector. The Biden administration is trying to align American interests and values, stressing the fact that India is a natural ally of the United States since it is a longstanding democracy. However, the democratic tradition of India is nowadays put into question. The current government of Narendra Modi, leader of a Hindu nationalist party, shows signs of an increasingly authoritarian turn, characterized by Islamophobia against the 200 million Muslim minority and a strong control of mass media.

Another controversial aspect of modern India is the striking inequality between different social classes and geographical areas. GDP per capita and HDI levels remain low, showing how the economic development of the last decade has been favouring a wealthy minority. As an example, only 60 million workers – a small fraction of the total number – are employed in the formal sector. Public authorities have not been able to manage the relentless demographic trend, eliminating the benefits of scientific and technological advancements, such as the green revolution in the agricultural field. Lastly, India is one of the countries that is most affected by climate change and environmental risks. Extreme heat, disruptive floods, and monsoons have become more and more frequent. What is striking is that the Indian government is one of the fiercest opponents of green transition and the fight against pollution, advocating for the right of its country to keep developing without environmental constraints. Therefore, millions of poor, low-skilled Indians emigrate each year from the countryside to the main urban centres, or they move abroad, mostly to the Gulf States, in conditions that sometimes are not too far from enslavement. This is the other side of the Indian diaspora.

All in all, it remains to be seen whether India will be able to exploit its several strengths while effectively managing the many obstacles it is facing. India is already one of the fundamental actors of the ongoing multipolar geopolitical system. However, its capacity to enhance its position in the international arena depends on how the future governments will maintain the country politically equidistant between China and the West while continuing to play a leadership role in the global south. In addition, threats related to climate change as well as social inequalities represent the two main aspects to take into account to understand if the Indian development process will be sustainable in the long run.