Framing The World, CX Edition

Framing The World, CX Edition

In the new issue of Framing we deal with diplomacy, describing on the one hand the attempt at African mediation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and on the other the diplomatic tour of Von der Leyen in Latin America and Tunisia. On the subject of migration, however, we focus on the humanitarian tragedy that took place off the coast of Greece. Finally, we show how Chinese soft power in the Middle East has also arrived in Palestine. All this and more in the 110th issue of Framing the World!

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Greece, migrant shipwreck: at least 600 victims. On 14 June, a fishing boat sailing from Libya to Italy sank off the southwest coast of Pylos, in the Peloponnese. On board there were 750 migrants, including over 100 children. Authorities have reported that the number of victims has already risen to 79, while 104 people have been rescued. Panagiotis Nikas, the governor of the Peloponnese region, fears that the death toll will increase significantly, making this shipwreck the deadliest incident off the coast of Greece in recent years. Meanwhile, Alarm Phone, an emergency hotline for migrants in distress at sea, has denounced the Greek Coast Guard for failing to launch any rescue operation despite knowing that the vessel was overcrowded and inadequate.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

United Kingdom, woman sentenced to 2 years in prison for using abortion pills. A 44-year-old woman has been sentenced to 28 months in prison for using abortion pills after the legal time limit established by British law to terminate a pregnancy. She pleaded guilty under the Offenses Against the Person Act 1861. In 2020, the woman obtained the medication from the British Pregnancy Advisory Service (BPAS) through the "pills by post" program, introduced during the Covid-19 pandemic, by falsely claiming to be 7 weeks pregnant. In the United Kingdom, abortion is legal before 24 weeks and must be performed in a clinic after 10 weeks of pregnancy, while the woman took the pills when she was between 32 and 34 weeks pregnant. Following the conviction, numerous groups of doctors have called for a revision of this outdated abortion law and a reduction in the severity of the penalty.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Malawi, Forced Detention of Refugees and Minors. The government of Malawi has been accused of serious human rights violations after forcibly arresting and transferring refugees and asylum seekers throughout the country, completely disregarding their fundamental rights. On May 26, the Ministry of Internal Security of Malawi announced the detention of 902 refugees and asylum seekers since May 17, who were residents of the capital city, Lilongwe, and other districts of the country. They were temporarily held in prison before being left stranded without means in the Dzaleka refugee camp, located approximately 40 kilometers from Lilongwe. Some of the detainees have reported being subjected to mistreatment and experiencing damage or theft of their belongings. The human rights organization Human Rights Watch has denounced these actions and called on the Malawian authorities to immediately reverse this situation and ensure the respect of everyone's rights to freedom of movement, education, and a dignified standard of living.

(Sofia Ena)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

Federal Reserve, change of pace. After 15 months of consecutive interest rate hikes, Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve, in a unanimous decision, announced that it will keep the rates it practices unchanged, but at the same time it does not rule out a return to restrictive policies in the coming months. In fact, Powell justifies this decision as an opportunity to assess the effects of the past months' increases in light of the economic data in the coming weeks, and at the press conference Powell revealed that almost all the members of the Federal Open Market Committee expect further rate increases during 2023 and that we are, probably, a couple of years away from the first rate cut.

ECB, rates still rising. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by another 25 basis points and President Lagarde described a further rise in July as very likely, barring unexpected changes in the economic outlook. The decision comes a day after word came from the Fed that it would keep its rates unchanged and brings rates in Europe to 3.5 %, the highest in more than two decades. Lagarde added that there is still a way to go before declaring victory against inflation, and markets seem to have listened carefully to these words. Indeed, markets now estimate the probability of rates reaching 4 % before October at 80%, up from 50% in previous days.

China, government intervention. Negative, or at least less positive than expected, data from the Chinese economy convinced the People's Bank of China to lower interest rates by 10 basis points to stimulate more economic activity, bringing 1-year rates to 2.65%. What prompted the decision were in fact data on industrial production, slowing to +3.5 % from 5.6% in April, private investment (-0.1%) and real estate (-7.2%), but also the unemployment rate, which remained stable in May at 5.2% and instead rose for the 16-24 year old population to 20.8%, the highest since 2018. At the same time, the State Council is working on a package of stimulus measures for the most distressed sectors, although at the moment they would be narrower than in the past, also considering the fact that growth is still expected to reach the target of +5 % per year.

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

South Africa: Cyril Ramaphosa leads African initiative for peace in Ukraine. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has arrived in Ukraine. This visit, the first since the start of the Russian invasion, is part of the efforts of some African countries to help end the conflict. Ramaphosa met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky before heading to St. Petersburg for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. During his visit, Ramaphosa visited Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv, where the Russian army was accused of killing civilians in 2022. During his visit, an air raid in Kyiv underscored the challenges that African leaders face. Ramaphosa has called for a de-escalation of the conflict from both sides. The African delegation, including senior officials from Uganda, Egypt, and Congo, will head to Moscow on June 17. This African peace initiative comes as Ukraine launches a counteroffensive to drive out Kremlin forces from occupied areas, using advanced weapons supplied by countries such as the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany.

Sudan: over 330 children killed and 1,900 injured, says Unicef. Unicef reports that over one million children have been displaced in two months of conflict in Sudan, with over 330 children killed and over 1,900 injured. Access to vital services is limited and over 13 million children are in need of humanitarian assistance. The situation in Darfur is particularly concerning, with nearly 270,000 recently displaced children due to the fighting. The war in Sudan, which has lasted for three months between the regular army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has resulted in over 2,000 deaths and 2.2 million displaced people, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The fighting, which began on April 15th, has also led to the flight of 528,000 people to nearby countries

Giulio Ciofini

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America: Sunak in Washington to contrast China and Russia. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visited Washington this June and announced, at a joint press conference with Biden at the White House, a deal for transatlantic cooperation, moving the UK into the US economic orbit and signing a return in ties with the American administration after Brexit. The decision was made to contrast the threats in the international markets represented by China and Russia, as stated by Sunak: "Countries like China and Russia are willing to manipulate and exploit our openness". Biden outlined the economic benefits of the agreement, saying that the UK could provide the US with green technology and become home to a regulator on artificial intelligence.

North America: Canada and the Netherlands accuse Syria. Canada and the Netherlands have already invoked the responsibility of the Syrian regime for torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment and punishment of its own people on 3 March 2021 and 18 September 2020 respectively. Despite the attempts, a negotiated solution or an agreement with Syria was not reached. For this reason, on June 8, Canada and the Netherlands started legal proceedings at the International Court of Justice to hold the Syria regime accountable for all the human rights violations that have been perpetrated since 2011, as stated by the Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélani Joly and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Wopke Hoekstra.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Peru, the Minister of Health resigns. Peru's Health Minister, Rosa Gutiérrez, has resigned as the country struggles to control a dengue outbreak. Dengue fever is a widespread infection by mosquitoes, more common in tropical and subtropical climates. The epidemic has caused record-breaking deaths and infections, with at least 248 deaths and reported cases exceeding 146,000. Under pressure for her crisis management, Ms. Gutiérrez announced her decision to resign on Thursday.

(Ludovica Costantini)

Colombia, found in the forest 4 children after their plane crashed on May the 1st. Four children were found alive after surviving a plane crash and spending weeks in Colombia's Amazon jungle. Colombia President Petro said the rescue of the brothers, of 13, nine, four and one year, was "a joy for the whole country." The children's mother and two pilots died when their light aircraft crashed into the jungle on May the 1st.

(Ludovica Costantini)

Latin America, Ursula von der Leyen toured the continent. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has just recently completed a tour of Latin America, to intensify the relations between the European Union and the Mercosur countries. Moreover, she visited Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, while having talks with the respective presidents, and trying to find common strategies to fight climate change.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Colombia, receives back old indigenous masks from Germany. A museum in Germany decided to return to Colombia two indigenous masks belonging to the Kogi group, back to the 15th century. The masks ended in Berlin after that a German explorer, Theodor Preuss, brought them with him in 1915. The agreement has been reached through the participation of the Colombian president, Gustavo Petro, and the German one, Frank Walter Steinmeier.

(Francesco Andrea Rossi)

Ludovica Costantini and Francesco Andrea Rossi

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

China, Beijing hosts the Palestinian leader. The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas was held on Wednesday 14 June. During the meeting, Xi expressed his support for the Palestinian people's cause to restore their legitimate national rights. China also renewed its mediation proposal between Israel and Palestine, sharing a three-point plan that reaffirms Chinese support for the creation of two states to be created with reference to the pre-1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state sovereign, emphasizing the importance of increased international assistance to ensure adequate support for Palestinian development. The two leaders also agreed to establish a strategic partnership, signing several bilateral agreements, including an agreement for economic and technological cooperation.

Indonesia, the Constitutional Court rejects the attempt to change the electoral system. The decision was made known following a ruling handed down on Thursday 15 June, now less than a year to pending elections. The legal challenge was aimed at amending the current general electoral law, approved in 2017, bringing the Indonesian electoral system back to a closed system, thus preventing voters from expressing themselves directly on local candidates. The initiative has been a source of concern due to the implications for Indonesian democracy of returning to a closed system. Among the promoters of the changes is also Demas Brian Wicaksono, a member of the Indonesian Democratic Struggle Party (PDI-P), a party to which the current president Joko "Jokowi" Widodo also belongs, who will end his mandate next year. In 2024, Indonesian citizens will be called to the polls for both presidential and legislative elections.

Alessandra Tamponi

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

France Approves Defense Budget 2024-2030. The French National Assembly has approved the draft law on the military budget for the period 2024-2030. The unprecedented budget of €413 billion represents a significant increase and aims to enhance the capabilities of the French army. Funds will be allocated to both nuclear deterrence and the strengthening of naval, aerial, and cyber defense capabilities. One focal point of the legislation is the assistance to Ukraine: although not included in the budget, €16 billion has been earmarked to provide ammunition and equipment to the country. Despite the support from some right-wing parties, the vote highlighted divisions within the left-wing coalition NUPES. While some parties opposed the bill for ideological reasons, others chose to abstain from voting. The draft law will now be examined by the Senate, and the government hopes to enact it before July 14, a symbolic date for France.

(Sofia Ena)

EU, nuclear as an alternative source to fossil fuels. On 16 June, EU ambassadors approved the text of a declaration that 'puts other non-fossil energy sources on an equal footing with renewables in efforts to decarbonise'. The inclusion of nuclear power in the list of low-carbon energy sources had been strongly advocated by France, but initially rejected by Germany, Luxembourg and Austria. The Commission stated that 'other non-fossil fuel energy sources, in addition to renewables, contribute to achieving climate neutrality by 2050 for member states that decide to rely on such energy sources'.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU Stability Pact, clashes between France and Germany. France and Germany continue to disagree over the reform of EU fiscal rules. Berlin pushes for uniform standards that can improve compliance, while Paris advocates flexibility to give highly indebted countries more room for manoeuvre. Under the current rules, member states must keep their budget deficits below 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) and their public debt levels below 60% of GDP. After the proposal presented by the Commission in April, the Council of Economic Ministers in Luxembourg in any case constituted the start of negotiations on the new Stability Pact; the goal would be to reach an agreement by the autumn, so as to have a new negotiation before the clause that had suspended the application of the rules during the pandemic expires.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU Toward Regulation of AI Systems: EU lawmakers voted to begin negotiations to pass a law regulating artificial intelligence (AI) systems, including ChatGPT. The EU argues that the law will promote AI innovation and protect people from the dangers associated with the technology. However, there may be resistance from large tech companies such as OpenAI, which may be forced to withdraw from the EU because of the restrictions imposed by the law. The main goal of the law is to address the risks associated with deepfakes and possible threats to disinformation, especially during election time. The law would classify AI systems according to the level of risk, with greater obligations for high-risk systems. There are differences between the text proposed by the European Parliament and that proposed by the European Commission, particularly with regard to the use of biometric surveillance. The law would also require special requirements for AI generative systems, such as ChatGPT, to inform users that content has been produced by a machine. The EU aims to pass the law by the end of the year, but it may require an interim pact with tech companies until 2026. Some lobby groups, such as CCIA, have raised concerns about overly prescriptive rules that could slow innovation in the EU.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Bianca Franzini , Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Russia, Trial Against Human Rights Defender Begins. On June 8th, the trial against Oleg Orlov, a prominent human rights defender and vice president of the Russian non-governmental organization Memorial, commenced in Moscow. He is charged with "repeated discredit" of the armed forces, a violation outlined in Article 280.3.1 of the criminal code, which could lead to a maximum sentence of five years in a penal colony. According to Natalia Zviagina, director of Amnesty International Russia, Orlov is now facing charges due to an article he published in November 2022 in the French version of Mediapart, where he denounced Putin's Russia as a totalitarian and fascist society. Amnesty International urges the Russian authorities to immediately drop all charges against Oleg Orlov and put an end to the repression of civil society organizations and human rights activists.

(Sofia Ena)

Serbia-Kosovo, new escalation of tensions in territory: Tensions escalated between Kosovo and Serbia after three Kosovo police officers were arrested by Belgrade. Kosovo accused Serbia of kidnapping, while Serbia claims the officers were armed and breached the border. Kosovo's prime minister called the entry of Serbian forces an aggression and demanded the immediate release of the agents. Both countries have taken restrictive measures, with Kosovo banning the entry of vehicles with Serbian license plates and Serbia promising to do everything possible to avoid a conflict. Tensions have risen following Kosovo's decision to install ethnic Albanian mayors in Serb-majority municipalities. France, Germany, and the United States have called on both sides to reduce tensions, while the United States has openly criticized Kosovo's decision. The European Union has called on Kosovo to take steps to de-escalate the situation. These recent events add to the list of incidents that have shaken the region since Kosovo's declaration of independence in 2008.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Greece, refugee boat sinking calls for Turkish solidarity: The Turkish government called for "fair responsibility and burden sharing" after a refugee boat sank off Greece, leaving at least 78 dead and hundreds missing. The Turkish Foreign Ministry expressed condolences and stressed the need to eliminate the root causes of irregular migration to prevent similar tragedies. The shared responsibility to improve conditions for migrants and refugees was highlighted, emphasizing the urgency of finding solutions at the international level. Turkey is home to the largest refugee population in the world, with about 3.9 million people. Survivors of the shipwreck said the Greek coast guard was directly involved and may have caused the disaster. UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration called for urgent action to prevent further deaths at sea, stressing the obligation to rescue people in distress under international maritime law. Thorough investigations into the tragedy and greater coordination among Mediterranean states to save lives were called for.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Syrian Kurdistan, the Autonomous administration will begin to try the foreign fighters of ISIS. Bedran Jiya Kurd, an official of the Autonomous Administration of Syria in the north-east (Aanes), declared that the 10,000 suspected militant foreign fighters of ISIS will be tried, as, after years of negligence by the international community, the situation on the spot has become unsustainable and "requires urgent measures". This decision is defined by the spokesman as "a significant step in the fight against terrorism and the achievement of social justice", key principles of the administration inspired by democratic confederalism. Since 2019, the leaders of Aanes have urgently called for the creation of an ad hoc international tribunal to prosecute war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by ISIS foreign fighters, but the lack of adequate legislation and the political will of the States of origin of the militants, did not allow their establishment. For these reasons, Aanes has decided to act alone, stating that the trials will follow international standards for the protection of the accused and for a fair trial, despite the scarcity of resources held by the administration. The trials will be open to all participating states in the anti-ISIS coalition and interested NGOs. This stance is necessary due to the unsustainability and security threat posed by the presence of 10,000 foreign fighters, together with at least 40,000 wives and children, detained in al-Hol camp and Hasakah prison.

(Sara Oldani)

EU-Tunisia Negotiations on Migration, Energy, and Economy. On Sunday, June 11, President Ursula von der Leyen, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte visited Tunisia to discuss economy, energy, and migration. The goal of the European leaders is to conclude a memorandum of understanding with the North African country by the end of the month, in order to secure financial support of approximately 1.9 billion euros from the International Monetary Fund, to be invested in economic and financial stability and prosperity. Italy has focused on the external dimension of the new migration-asylum pact, including the situation in Tunisia, as it is affected by constant migration flows towards Europe. "There is only one way to solve the problem for everyone, and that is to control the external borders," emphasized Meloni, hoping that stabilizing the countries of origin could put an end to the migration phenomenon. The redistribution of funds is not the main objective, but rather to block departures by promoting solutions to economic and social problems, as well as creating an additional fund to finance projects related to the external dimension of the migration issue, always respecting human rights. Despite the positive statements of the European leaders at the end of the talks, the words of Tunisian President Said suggest otherwise. It is unacceptable to keep migrants in Tunisia in exchange for money, as stated by the president, affirming that the country will never act as a "border guard" for other countries.

(Sofia Ena)

Libya, a convoluted puzzle: the alliance between Cairo and Libya's National Army commander Khalifa Haftar seems to be weakening. Egypt laments the expulsion of several thousand of its own citizens from the eastern territory of Libya and the support provided by the Cyrenaica general to the Sudanese rapid support forces of General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Moreover, the general's rapprochement with the Tripoli-based national unity government led by Abdulhamid Dabaiba is not welcome. The leading politician in the Tobruk House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, also dislikes this rapprochement, considering the Tripoli government illegitimate. The 6+6 Joint Committee, composed of representatives from the two branches of the Libyan legislature, continues to work to steer the country towards new elections, but its members' differences on several key issues remain wide.

(Michele Magistretti)

Sofia Ena, Michele Magistretti and Sara Oldani

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Uganda, terrorist attack on a school. The toll of the attack, which took place in a secondary school in Mpondwe, a town on the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo, is at least 25 people, with as many injured, many of them in critical condition. According to local police, the attack was the work of the self-styled Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) terrorist group. The latter has been active since the 1990s in the territories of Uganda and the eastern regions of the former Belgian Congo. After the attack, the attackers reportedly fled towards the Virunga National Park, an area typically used as a refuge by various armed militias operating in the region, taking with them an as yet undefined number of hostages.

Poland, part of the South African delegation on its way to Ukraine blocked at Warsaw airport. About 120 members, mostly reporters and security staff accompanying President Cyril Ramaphosa, the latter heading the peace mission to Ukraine organised with other African leaders, were blocked by border authorities once they landed in Warsaw on Thursday. The latter justified the decision by stating that the South African security agents did not have the necessary authorisations to transport arms. Although the South African president managed, together with the other heads of the African delegation, to reach Kiev for the scheduled meeting with President Zelensky, he reportedly travelled without a substantial number of his security agents, causing a minor diplomatic incident between the two countries.

Davide Shahhosseini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Rocco Salvadori: Asia and the Far East

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa