Framing The World, CXIV Edition
In the new issue of Framing we describe the G20 summit in India and the consequences on world balances. Next we deal with oil balances, with an expected increase in the price of oil. Coming to the African continent, we sadly report the humanitarian emergency that occurred in Morocco following the earthquake. All this and more in the 114th issue of Framing the World!
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
HUMAN RIGHTS
Saudi Arabia, Death Sentence for Social Media Posts. A 54-year-old retired teacher, Mohammad bin Nasser al-Ghamdi, has been sentenced to death in Saudi Arabia due to his peaceful activities on Twitter and YouTube. Al-Ghamdi was arrested on June 11, 2022, at his home in Mecca. He spent four months in isolation at Dhahban prison, unable to communicate with his family or a lawyer. He was later transferred to al-Ha’ir prison in Riyadh, where he was finally able to contact his family. His sentence has raised international concerns and calls for an immediate review of the verdict.
(Sofia Ena)
Zimbabwe, two human rights lawyers arrested and released on bail. Douglas Coltart and Tapiwa Muchineripi, were released on $100 bail after facing charges of obstructing justice. They were jailed for allegedly preventing the police from questioning their clients, who were hospitalised in Harare. The clients were Womberaishe Ndende, a CCC councillor, and Sanele Mkhulhani, an activist. Zimbabwean human rights lawyers claim that the clients were forcibly taken from their vehicle, subjected to mistreatment and injected with an unknown substance before being abandoned naked near a river by alleged government agents. The CCC denounced these actions, creating a gloomy atmosphere in post-election Zimbabwe. Lawyers for Coltart and Muchineripi argued that their arrest criminalised their professional duties and formal complaints were filed in court. The disputed elections pitted CCC leader Nelson Chamisa against Emmerson Mnangagwa, who won a second term as president.
(Lorenzo Franceschetti)
Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
China-US, a showdown over technology. U.S.-China trade tensions are being enriched by two new chapters: a new investigation by the U.S. Commerce Department into whether the latest smartphone model unveiled by Huawei was built with American-made components subject to the ban on exports to China, and Beijing's response, it is on the verge of banning the use of Apple devices by employees of government agencies and state-controlled companies. The Chinese market accounts for about 20 % of Apple's sales, and this was reflected in a drop of just under 8 % in two days, for a loss of about $200 billion in capitalization.
Gas, strike in Australia. The strike by workers at two Chevron production sites in Australia began, in a partial form, last Friday, and the consequences on natural gas markets were not slow to appear, with futures prices in Amsterdam up 8% to €35/MWh, although still far from the nearly €50 touched in August. If no agreement is reached between the company and employees, the strike will be total from Thursday 14 onward. The two affected sites account for about 7 % of the world's LNG production.
Oil, prices rise again. Crude oil is back above $90 a barrel for the first time in 2023 after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended voluntary production cuts until the end of the year. Brent thus rose 1.2 percent to $90.04, while WTI settled at $86.69. Saudi Arabia, which leads the Opec+ cartel, had taken one million barrels a day off the global market since July, in what had been described as a temporary measure. But after extending the cut until the end of September, Saudi state media reported that the kingdom will maintain the reduction until the end of December. Russia, Vice-Premier Novak announced, will also keep 300,000 b/d export reductions in place until the end of the year. The move, which is likely to reignite global inflation concerns, is the latest effort by two of the world's largest oil producers to boost prices and secure their finances.
Leonardo Aldeghi
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Gabon: Coup d'état, ousted the Bongo dynasty. A group of military personnel announced the cancellation of the recent elections and the dissolution of "all the institutions of the Republic" following the re-election of President Ali Bongo Ondimba for a third term. The military cited an "irresponsible and unpredictable government" as the reason for their intervention, aiming to prevent the country from descending into chaos. They have closed the borders until further notice and imposed a curfew. This coup d'état marks the end of the Bongo dynasty, which has ruled Gabon for over half a century. The current president, who has been in power for 14 years following his father Omar Bongo's 41-year reign, is reportedly under house arrest. The coup leaders have appointed General Brice Oligui Nguema as the "transitional president."
South Africa: Buthelezi, historic political leader of the Zulu tribe, has died. Mangosuthu Buthelezi, founder of the "Inkatha Freedom Party" (IFP), has died at the age of 95. His death was announced by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who described him as a "formidable leader" who played a significant role in South Africa's history. Buthelezi founded the IFP in 1975 as a Zulu cultural organization, but it soon became a nationalist party. Under his leadership, the IFP engaged in bloody wars against the African National Congress (ANC) in the 80s and 90s, resulting in the death of over 5,000 people. Buthelezi also served as the prime minister of Kwazulu Bantustan during apartheid and denied accusations of supporting white power in 1994. He was known for wearing leopard skins in line with Zulu tradition and holds the record for the longest speech in a legislative assembly, lasting 11 days.
Sudan: army chief harshly criticizes the African Union, the victims are reportedly 7500. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, head of the Sudanese army, stated that Sudan could do without the help of the African Union in the conflict, which has caused about 7500 deaths in five months according to a report by the NGO Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled). The war, which began on April 15, pits the Sudanese armed forces against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Mohamed Hamdane Daglo, with the main conflict zones located in Khartoum, and the Darfur region. International mediation attempts have so far failed. Tensions between the Sudanese army and the AU have grown following a meeting between the president of the AU Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, and the political advisor of the RSF, Youssef Ezzat. On Monday, the Sudanese foreign ministry criticized the meeting, calling it a "dangerous precedent."
Giulio Ciofini
NORTH AMERICA
G20, the United States strengthens relations with allies. Between 9 and 10 September it was held in New Delhi, the Indian capital, under the presidency of Narendra Modi. The important diplomatic meeting of presidents and prime ministers of the world's largest advanced economies was an unmissable opportunity for the United States. They have in fact managed to "bring grist to their mill" by strengthening relations with allies such as Italy which officially withdrew from the Silk Road project and India to contain both the Chinese and Russian advance. As for India, thanks to an agreement signed already in August and strengthened by a joint statement from President Biden and President Modi, the US Navy will be able to use Indian naval bases as technical-operational support. Between the lines of the agreement, we can therefore see a greater integration of the Indian ally within the QUAD alliance and a greater presence of US power in the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, the United States has sponsored an infrastructure project that would connect India to the Middle East and Europe, thus linking actors such as Saudi Arabia who have recently put one foot in both shoes juggling between the United States, China and Russia.
(Sara Oldani)
Europe-U.S., contrasting economies. Money markets continue to reflect the divergent performance of the economies on the opposite sides of the Atlantic, with the euro recording its eighth consecutive week of declines against the dollar, dropping more than 5% since mid-July to $1.07. In the U.S., in fact, the economy continues to rally, with consumption buoyant and unemployment claims falling further; in Europe, on the other hand, German industrial production fell in July for the third consecutive month, second-quarter GDP was revised from +0.3% to +0.1%, and on Thursday the 14th the ECB could raise rates again since inflation is not yet under control.
(Leonardo Aldeghi)
Leonardo Aldeghi and Sara Oldani
LATIN AMERICA
Ecuador, unstable situation ahead of 15 October. Two weeks before the second round of the presidential elections, violence occurred in Ecuador involving fifty prison police officers and seven policemen, who were held hostage by prisoners for several hours between Thursday 31 August and Friday 1 September. Following the release of the police, the government announced that the guards' health conditions are good. According to the executive, what happened is a response by criminal gangs to the state's efforts to regain control of the prisons by transferring inmates and seizing weapons that had arrived illegally in the cells. For some years now, the situation in Ecuador's prisons has been decidedly serious due to constant clan wars: according to data, these clashes have led to the death of more than 430 inmates since 2021.
Chile, 50 years after Pinochet's coup. 11 September marks the 50th anniversary of the coup d'état carried out by Augusto Pinochet against President Salvador Allende. The event marked the country's contemporary history and contributed to a climate of profound bipolarity in politics in recent years. The current situation is a clear testimony to this: Chile, governed by Gabriel Boric, the most left-wing leader in recent decades, is going through a phase of widespread conservatism and growing hostility towards migrants from the northern border - mostly from Venezuela - who are held responsible for the rising crime rate in the country. It is likely that these social fractures are rooted in the painful events that followed the taking of the Moneda in '73, in the still open wounds of the dictatorial season, whose historical truth is not easy to reconstruct. In this regard, on 30 August Boric announced a plan to search for and identify the more than one thousand people who disappeared under Pinochet.
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
Hong Kong, Court orders legal framework for same-sex unions. Hong Kong's top court has declined to recognize same-sex marriages but ordered the city to establish an alternative framework within two years, a partial victory for activist Jimmy Sham. While same-sex marriages are not currently allowed in Hong Kong, there is limited recognition of unions legalized elsewhere, mainly in taxation and spousal visas. The Court of Final Appeal ruled that the government's failure to provide alternative options for LGBT couples violated their rights, giving officials two years to create an official framework for recognizing same-sex unions. Sham, who challenged the ban on same-sex marriages, is currently detained on unrelated charges. The move comes amid concerns about Beijing's influence in Hong Kong, with rising support for same-sex marriages among the public. The territory has shown progress in LGBT rights, despite setbacks and conservative backlash.
(Lorenzo Franceschetti)
China, still negative data. China's exports fell 8.8 % in August on a year-on-year basis, the fourth consecutive month of decline, as the manufacturing sector of the world's second-largest economy struggles to regain momentum. August's contraction was milder than expected (-9.2%) and better than July's drop (-14.5%), the worst figure since the start of the pandemic. Chinese trade supported economic activity during the country's coronavirus pandemic standoff. But exporters have struggled this year due to high global inflation and foreign consumers' cutbacks on electronic gadgets. The persistent weakness in trade and manufacturing comes as Beijing faces turmoil in the real estate sector, the other main driver of the economy.
(Leonardo Aldeghi)
Lorenzo Franceschetti and Leonardo Aldeghi
WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
Sweden, Violent Protests Erupt in Malmö Following Quran Burning. In the southern Swedish town of Malmö, violent protests have erupted in the wake of a Quran burning incident. The Muslim community took to the streets in protest, leading to clashes with the police between September 3rd and 4th. During a night marked by widespread disorder and burning vehicles, many attempted to breach police barricades. Iraqi refugees Salwan Momika and Salwan Najem, who initiated the protests, were detained by law enforcement.
(Sofia Ena)
UK, Post-Brexit Turnaround. On September 7th, the United Kingdom and the European Commission reached a common agreement for the UK's participation in the EU "Horizon Europe" and "Copernicus" programs, starting from January 1, 2024. This return is driven by the mutual intent to strengthen ties and solidify the alliance in the fight against climate change. This will be facilitated through Copernicus, a satellite program dedicated to Earth monitoring, and Horizon Europe, which will promote innovation to achieve climate goals and support the Green Deal.
(Sofia Ena)
France, ban on wearing the abaya and qamis in schools. France's Council of State has approved a ban on wearing the abaya and qamis, traditional Islamic male and female clothing, in schools. The measure had been defended in previous days by President Macron and the appeal filed by the Association Action droits des musulmans (Adm) was rejected. The ban gave rise to various clashes and discussions, since abaya and qamis for many are not Muslim religious signs: supporters of the ban insist on the protection of secularism, for others the ban represents a further stigmatisation of a part of the population of France. The new education minister, Gabriel Attal, considers the abaya a 'garment that flaunts religious affiliation' and should therefore be banned under a 2004 law banning religious symbols for students in state schools. On the first day of school, 289 students showed up wearing the abaya or qamis; they were given a letter explaining the situation to their families and 67 refused to accept the rule and were not admitted to class.
(Bianca Franzini)
European Commission, need to re-evaluate the protection of wolves. The Commission has announced that it will consider whether to change the protected species status of wolves. Indeed, the return of wolves to various areas of the Union after a period of absence causes clashes between local farming and hunting communities. The Commission has invited local communities and the scientific community to collect and share data on the wolf population and its impact.
In EU countries, wolves are a protected species under the Habitats Directive, which prohibits the capture and killing of wolves, with some exceptional derogations. Among the EU political groups most interested in this issue is the European People's Party, which, in the run-up to next year's elections, wants to present itself as a political force in defence of rural communities and their interests.
In the coming months, the Commission will decide, on the basis of the data collected, whether to update the legal framework regarding the status of wolf protection in the Union.
(Bianca Franzini)
Spain, Puidgemont sets strict terms for talks with Spanish prime minister: Carles Puigdemont, the exiled former leader of Catalonia, has announced that his party, Junts per Catalunya, demands the abandonment of all court cases on Catalan separatism as a condition for negotiating the support of its legislators for a new Spanish prime minister in parliament. Puigdemont is wanted in Spain for his involvement in the 2016-2017 Catalan secession attempt. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's leftist coalition is seeking the support of Junts per Catalunya to remain in power after the July elections. If his attempt fails, Sanchez will need the support of Puigdemont's legislators to form a government. Puigdemont has also demanded an amnesty for supporters of Catalan independence and the recognition of Catalan as an official language in EU institutions. Furthermore, he supported the legality of a referendum on Catalan independence but left open the possibility of unilateral action to achieve this.
(Francesca Pasqualino)
Bianca Franzini, Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
Turkey, Prime Minister urges EU not to exclude Turkey in enlargement by 2030: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that the European Union (EU) must show the necessary will and act bolder to advance relations with Turkey, stressing that the EU cannot be a global player without Turkey. He emphasised that relations between Turkey and the EU should not be hostage to the interests of certain countries. Fidan emphasised that, considering EU enlargement until 2030, excluding Turkey would be a serious strategic mistake. He emphasised the importance of reactivating dialogue mechanisms between Turkey and the EU in order to restore trust in relations. The EU Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Oliver Varhelyi, said that there are new opportunities in bilateral relations after the elections in Turkey and that Turkey is a crucial partner for the EU. Fidan also highlighted the expectation of progress in visa liberalisation and the upgrading of the customs union between Turkey and the EU. Varhelyi's visit to Ankara aims to discuss bilateral relations and cooperation.
Russia, tensions emerge with military ally Armenia: The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the ambassador of Armenia, a traditional ally, to express protests against the upcoming joint military exercises between Armenia and the US, underlining growing tensions in relations. The Ministry accused Armenia of hostile behaviour, citing the planned exercises, the sending of humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and the attempt to ratify the Rome Statute, which has led to accusations of war crimes against Russian President Vladimir Putin. In addition, he criticised the Armenian parliament president's offensive remarks about Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. These tensions arise despite the military ties between Armenia and Russia, which include a Russian military base in Armenia and participation in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation alliance. However, Armenia is becoming increasingly critical of Russia, especially after the 2020 war with Azerbaijan. Armenia has also refused to allow CSTO exercises on its territory and has avoided sending troops to exercises in Belarus this year.
Francesca Pasqualino
MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
Israel, the tension persists: in recent weeks the protests of the opposition against the justice reform wanted by the right-wing government have not stopped. Even the most extreme sections of the majority have decided to take to the streets, bringing several thousand protesters onto the streets. Although they were fewer in number than in previous demonstrations, there was no lack of provocation and exaggerated tones against the opposition and the Supreme Court itself, which was threatened by the extremist leader Bezalel Smotrich. In the meantime, the government had to deal with the riots that broke out within the Eritrean diaspora, between opponents and supporters of the regime in Asmara. The clashes resulted in more than 150 injured, including some policemen, and more than 50 arrests. As retaliatory measures, the executive considers the deportation of most of those who took part in the clashes, about a thousand people.
(Michele Magistretti)
Jordan, drone trafficking of crystal meth increases. According to the latest investigation reported by the newspaper Al Jazeera, cases of crystal meth, a synthetic amphetamine with stimulating and exciting effects, are on the increase in the country despite the Jordanian government's attempt to stop trafficking. In recent years, the Jordanian authorities have in fact deployed large security forces at the "hot" borders with Syria and Iraq to prevent and combat the already flourishing drug trafficking, first and foremost the captagon produced in Syria - especially in the gray areas outside government control – and spread to Iraq, Jordan and the Gulf countries. The situation is worrying, as crystal meth is quickly replacing the consumption of captagon. The first methamphetamine is easily transportable compared to captagon (it is transported in small quantities via drones) and has a much higher price, so the proceeds for traffickers and drug dealers are much more profitable, despite the decrease in its value given by the increase in consumption. Consumption in Jordan has increased especially in the poorest areas, among which the neighborhood east of the capital Amman stands out, where crimes and drug abuse are commonplace. Jordan's Anti-Narcotics Department (AND) has already confiscated approximately 50 kg of crystal meth between February and July, but the fight against traffickers is expected to be difficult given the appeal that the drug causes and the unchanged socio-economic conditions of drug addicts. Furthermore, the health response to the emergency is not adequate because, as declared by the National Center for the Rehabilitation of Addicts (NCRA), the facility - one of two existing in Jordan - is full.
(Sara Oldani)
Morocco, a powerful earthquake causes panic. In the night between Friday 8th and Saturday 9th, a powerful earthquake (6.8 on the Richter scale) hit the province of Al Haouz, south-east of Marrakesh. The number of victims is continuously increasing: at the time of writing, the Moroccan authorities count more than 2,000 dead and the same number missing. Marrakesh, the beating heart of Moroccan tourism, has been particularly affected: several mosques as well as the famous city walls have been compromised. The greatest damages, however, are located in the Berber villages at the foot of the Atlas mountains, made up of brick and mud huts that could not resist the earthquake. Humanitarian diplomacy immediately took action with dozens of countries sending men and resources. Among these is Algeria, Rabat's historic opponent in the region, which has offered its help despite the two countries being currently at loggerheads due to tensions over the Saharawi issue.
(Francesco Lorenzini)
Sara Oldani, Francesco Lorenzini and Michele Magistretti
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Mali, 2 terrorist attacks in the north-east of the country. At least 60 civilians and soldiers are the confirmed victims of the two attacks against a military base and a ferry, the same ones claimed by Al Qaeda. The passenger ship was hit while crossing the Niger river plains, which were flooded at the height of the rainy season. Since 2012, Mali has been affected by innumerable insurgencies, led by groups close to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, which have led to great political instability in the region, spreading to other Sahel countries such as Burkina Faso and Chad.
(Davide Shahhosseini)
Ethiopia, civilian casualties in clashes between army and rebels. According to reports by Reuters and the Guardian, dozens of civilians were killed in the violent clashes between the Ethiopian Army and the paramilitary group Fano in the Amara region. Fighting broke out in Majete on 3 September, when the paramilitaries carried out several attacks against the regular armed forces. The latter's response saw searches of local homes, resulting in the deaths of an unknown number of civilians, including children. Estimates of casualties range from 29-30 according to Reuters to 70 according to the Guardian. The Fano group has been active for years in the Amara region and had been allied with the Ethiopian army in the past. However, recent months have seen a rapid deterioration in relations, mainly due to attempts by the central government to further restrict the scope of action of paramilitary groups.ù
(Davide Shahhosseini)
Niger, street demonstrations against the French presence continue. On 3 September, thousands of people gathered in the capital Niamey and in Ouallam, in the south-east of the country, to urge the departure of the French special forces, around 1500 men, present for years in the Sahelian country in the fight against Islamic Jihad. The anti-French sentiment of public opinion was further strengthened after the coup d'état of 26 July in which President Bazoum, a friend of Paris, was deposed by a military junta. The new government issued an expulsion decree against the French ambassador, and President Macron publicly recalled how - based on the 1969 Vienna Convention - diplomatic immunity is inviolable.
(Francesco Lorenzini)
Davide Shahhosseini and Francesco Lorenzini
Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.
Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East
Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa
Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union
Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security
Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security
Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa
Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance
Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights
Lorenzo Graziani: North America
Ludovica Costantini: Latin America
Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa
Rocco Salvadori: Asia and the Far East
Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa
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