Framing The World, XCVII Edition
In the new issue of Framing we deal with ISIS, with the death of the group leader Abu al Hasan and at the same time the recruitment of 90,000 soldiers in Burkina Faso to fight Jihad. We will also talk about South America, with the official start of negotiations between the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army. Finally, from the USA, the news of the use of "killer robots" by the San Francisco police.
All this and more in the 97th issue of Framing the World!
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
HUMAN RIGHTS
New restrictions in Russia for foreign agents. The law, adopted in July 2022, went into effect on Dec. 1, 2022. The new measure expands the definition of "foreign agent" to a point where virtually any person or entity, regardless of his or her nationality or geographic location, who is engaged in activism or expressing opinions about Russian policies, is considered a foreign agent. This law has the effect of excluding those who fall under this definition from many key aspects of civic life. According to Rachel Denber, Central Asia director of Human Rights Watch, Russian authorities have used this expedient to punish independent voices.
(Alice Stillone)
Japan, the Tokyo court confirms the prohibition of equal marriage. A Tokyo court confirmed last November 30 the ban on same-sex marriage, in a ruling that makes Japan the only G7 state not to recognize egalitarian marriage. Although the ban was confirmed, the judge noted the lack of legal protection for LGBTQ+ couples, in violation of their human rights. At the moment, same-sex couples in the country are allowed civil unions, and although the sentence has been filed, the plaintiffs said they were satisfied and defined the judgment and the judge's words as a sign of hope for the future.
(Laura Salvemini)
New UE migration plan. The new plan, proposed on Nov. 21, 2022 and adopted a few days later, aims at stopping people trying to enter Europe by increasing funds and finances to North African governments. For example, the plan intensifies the involvement of Libyan police at the country's borders and aims at supporting the Libyan coast guard by granting facilities for intercepting migrants at sea and especially for transporting them back to Libya. Unfortunately, people who return to Libya accompanied by the coast guard face arbitrary detention and are often subject to horrific abuses. At the same time, the plan does not include a process for reallocating people among other UE countries. This would clearly allow a sharing of responsibility and would alleviate the pressure of the migration flow by distributing it for each country.
(Alice Stillone)
San Francisco approves the use of ‘robot killer’ for police. The city of San Francisco approves the use of robots licensed to kill by the police in emergency situations. According to an official statement from the San Francisco Police Department at the moment there are no armed robots available however it is an option that can be used in the presence of violent, dangerous and armed suspects and when there are lives at stake.
(Federico Pani)
Alice Stillone, Laura Salvemini and Federico Pani
ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
Tesla, a challenging period. While stock markets, albeit amid ups and downs, are unchanged from September to today, one stock paying a very heavy toll is Tesla at -36% (-51% since January). Elon Musk's car company, now firmly in profit after years of losses, is gripped in a pincer grip from several fronts: rising interest rates result in a different valuation of future profits (as with other tech companies), while the Twitter purchase has forced Musk to sell shares worth more than $18 billion and raises fears that he will be distracted from Tesla. More recently, the uncertainty related to covid in China, both from the restraining measures and popular discontent in response to them, and recalls for manufacturing defects are weighing in: 321,000 vehicles for a software glitch on tail lights, 30,000 for a problem with airbags, and another 80,000 for possible battery and seat belt malfunctions.
FTX, where is the money? The saga surrounding the bankruptcy of the decade is being enriched with new details. FTX's attorneys in the first court hearing of the bankruptcy proceedings declared a substantial discrepancy between the reported and existing assets and that the goal is to sell off the healthy parts of the company to cover the tens of billions in debt (the 50 largest customers alone are owed $3.1 billion), as liquidity amounts to only $1.24 billion. New CEO John Ray III also accused founder Bankman-Fried of working with Bahamian authorities to move assets to the country and thus undermine bankruptcy in the U.S., of running the company as a personal fiefdom, and of spending more than $300 million on housing for himself and management. Bankman-Fried, in an interview with Bloomberg, defended himself by saying he miscounted the liquid assets, judged to be $9 billion but in reality it was $8 billion less because he did not fully account for the expenses and investments made.
Cotton, tumbling prices. An unassuming commodity but one that plays a key role in the global economy is cotton, which after contributing to inflation in recent months thanks to a rally that caused its prices to more than triple in two years, now thanks to a 50% drop in six months could be another sign that the inflationary peak has passed and that central banks may not have to raise rates as much as feared. This decline is explained by the reduction in imports to China, in turn caused by the reduction in demand for clothing in the Asian country and its export markets, and it is a dynamic that is putting a strain on the cotton yarn industry in countries such as India, Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Uzbekistan, while it will obviously benefit end consumers in the West.
Federal Reserve, a slowdown is coming. In a speech at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday, November 30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggested that as of the next meeting in mid-December, the Fed will slow down its interest rate hike, which is thus expected to ease from 75 to 50 basis points, given the lag between monetary policy decisions and the unfolding of material effects in the real economy, which have yet to fully reveal themselves after this year's sharp rate hikes. Powell once again voiced caution, warning that the policy will remain restrictive as long as necessary and that it will not be eased prematurely, but markets celebrated anyway and within minutes netted gains between 2 % (Dow Jones) and 4.4 % (Nasdaq), only partially erased after the above-expected data on new jobs created (260k vs 200k expected).
HP and Apple, technology suffers. Hewlett-Packard brings in negative quarterly figures and announces a $1.4 billion savings plan that will result in the elimination of 6,000 jobs over the next three years. The figures show overall revenues down 1% on 2021, with the PC division down 13%, the commercial PC division down 6%, and the imaging and printer division down 7%, while total devices sold dropped 21% (notebooks -26% and desktops -3%). Apple, on the other hand, suffers from the vulnerability of production in China to anti-covid restrictions and from the unrest that erupted in Foxconn factories following the hiring of seasonal workers, at lower wages than promised, to replace those quarantined or unwilling to stay on the factory floor beyond working hours to avoid infection. It is estimated that iPhone production may be reduced by 6 million units, at a total cost to Apple of $1 billion per week in lost sales.
Leonardo Aldeghi
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Angola, an international arrest warrant issued for the president's daughter. In mid-November, the Portuguese news agency Lusa revealed that Interpol was searching for Isabel dos Santos, daughter of the former Angolan president, José Eduardo dos Santos. However, lawyers for the businesswoman said they were unaware that an international arrest warrant had been issued against her. Isabel dos Santos is being investigated in her country for a number of crimes, including money laundering, trafficking in illicit influence, and falsification of documents. These were allegedly committed during the period when dos Santos was president of Angola's national oil company, between June 2016 and November 2017. In fact, he allegedly amassed a huge fortune, estimated at around 200 million, illicitly during that period. Not knowing precisely where he is currently, Angola's attorney general's office has asked Interpol to issue a red notice, which is a request to a country's authorities to locate, arrest and extradite a criminal or suspected criminal.
Zimbabwe, suspended power production from Kariba Dam. The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA), which is responsible for managing the dam owned by Zimbabwe and neighboring Zambia, recently announced a halt to power production at the important Kariba Dam, the nation's main source of energy. In fact, water storage levels had reportedly reached a critical level, according to ZRA. It was pointing out that Zimbabwe had already exhausted its annual allocation of water for electricity and was consuming neighboring Zambia's share. Its reservoir has only 4 percent of usable water, or a quarter of last year's level. Zimbabwe will only be able to resume power generation from the Kariba Dam in January 2023. The news of the plant's closure is a blow to Zimbabwe. In the country, people are already facing up to 12 hours a day without electricity. And, with this new measure, the country's energy crisis can only worsen.
Andrea Ghilardi
NORTH AMERICA
USA: Wagner company will be defined as a terrorist group? The US is considering whether to define the Russian Wagner Group as a foreign terrorist organization. The Bloomberg agency reports it, citing some sources, according to which the Biden administration has not yet made a definitive decision on the name of the group of Russian mercenaries, led by Vladmir Putin's ally, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Defining the group as a terrorist organization would allow Washington to prosecute Wagner and his men.
Usa: hundreds of layoffs on Cnn. Hundreds of dismissal letters would be ready at CNN. This was announced by the same network according to which the cuts are necessary after the merger of WarnerMedia with Discovery (Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.) which gave birth to a communication giant, however, with debts worth billions of dollars. In a note to employees, Chris Licht, appointed CEO of the network last May, called the layoffs 'a punch in the stomach'. The exact number of people affected by the dismissal has not been disclosed but it is for the majority of collaborators.
Federico Pani
LATIN AMERICA
Brazil, the electoral court rejects the appeal of the Liberal Party. A few days ago the Brazilian Liberal Party, represented by former President Jair Bolsonaro, requested the annulment of some votes for electoral irregularities during the October 30 runoff, won by Lula's opposition. After the necessary checks, however, the court decided not to accept the appeal, confirming the election results made known at the first moment.
Colombia, negotiations with the ENL begin. On November 21, representatives of the National Liberation Army, one of the last guerrilla groups present in Colombia, and representatives of Gustavo Petro's government met in Caracas (Venezuela). With his ‘total peace’ project Petro aims to retrain relations with armed groups and end an internal war that has lasted for decades. For now, negotiations are taking place in Caracas, the capital of one of the guarantor countries of the negotiations, but a system of rotation of the meeting place is planned.
Ludovica Costantini
ASIA AND THE FAR EAST
China, Covid protests continue across the country following the Urumqi fire. On November 24 a fire in an apartment building in Urumqi, a city in the Xinjiang region, killed 10 people and left many injured. The tragedy was blamed on the harsh Covid-19 lockdown measures imposed on the region during the last three months, as it appears that the rescue efforts have been hampered and delayed by the pandemic control barriers that have paralyzed the city. The vigils held in honor of the fire victims led to a series of protests from the angered citizens that started in Urumqi and quickly spread throughout the country, becoming the largest show of public defiance that China has witnessed since the 1989 protests in Tiananmen. The protesters demand a release from the zero-covid policy that has been in place for the last three years. The pieces of blank white paper held during the protests have now become a symbol of the population’s discontent, meant to represent their protest against the government’s censorship.
North Korea, new sanctions imposed following the ballistic missile tests. The U.S., South Korea and Japan have imposed new sanctions on North Korean officials and companies following the recent intercontinental missile test held last month. The three senior officials sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department were already sanctioned by the European Union last April, while South Korea has announced further sanctions on seven other individuals and eight companies that were already under U.S. sanctions since 2018. Japan designated another individual and three entities, including the famous Lazarus Group suspected of being responsible for cyberattacks. Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian Nelson, has called for the implementation of UN Security Council resolutions to prevent the DPRK from acquiring technologies and material to develop the prohibited WMD and ballistic missiles.
Laura Salvemini
WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
EU, “Women on boards” directive approved. Ten years after the proposal was tabled, the European Parliament has finally passed legislation on the presence of women on boards. The aim is to have, by July 2026, 40% of non-executive seats on the boards of listed companies and 33% of director seats occupied by the “under-represented sex”. Within the next two years, EU countries will therefore have to establish effective measures and sanctions for companies that do not adopt transparent selection procedures. According to EIGE statistics, the proportion of women among senior managers in the EU is rising, despite the fact that it was only 30.6 % in 2021.
Italy, the draft of the Budget Law has been presented. The Council of Ministers approved the draft of the Budget Law 2023, the multi-year budget for the period 2023-2025, and the update of the Budget Planning Document. The President of the Republic signed the text at the end of November and now awaits Parliament’s approval by the end of December. The measures contained in the budget maneuver amount to almost 35 billion euro; most of it will be used to extend measures already in place to limit the effects of energy price increases on households and businesses. The rest will be used for the flat tax and a new quota for pensions, measures wanted by the new ruling majority.
Ischia, Italy, state of emergency declared. On November 26, part of Mount Epomeo in Ischia collapsed. The mud swept over and devastated the area of Casamicciola Terme. The provisional death toll is 11 confirmed deaths. The Naples Public Prosecutor’s Office has opened an investigation that will also take into account the alarms that went unheeded. The former mayor of Casamicciola, Giuseppe Conte, said that on November 22 he had contacted among others, the mayor of Naples, the Civil Protection and the Prefect of Naples without receiving a reply. The damage caused by the landslide is due to the heavy rainfall that has hit Ischia since November 25, the geographical configuration of the island itself, its hydrological risks and excessive building. The Council of Ministers has approved the state of emergency and 2 million euros have already been allocated for the initial relief and assistance to the population, the restoration of infrastructure and the functionality of public services. The national climate change adaptation plan is now awaited.
Bianca Franzini
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA
Russia, shadows over recruiting of foreigner prisoners deployed in Ukraine. On the 22nd of September Nathan Lemekhandi Nyirenda was killed while fighting in Ukraine. The 23 y.o., former student at the Moscow Engineering Physics Institute, was jailed in 2020 for possession of drugs and consequently sentenced to 9 years and half. Because of no further news about him, the young man’s family asked about him, to authorities. The situation did not change until the news about his death was delivered to the family. Only after the numerous family’s requests to know the truth, the Russian Government publicly admitted that the Zambian citizen would have accepted to enlist with the Wagner Group, in exchange of a sentence’s reduction of six months, and only later being deployed on the Ukrainian frontline. Moreover, a cellmate of the man declared that the will to join the PMC was justified, by Nathan himself, as an act of gratitude to the Wagner Group for “saving many African people lives” through its operation on the continent.
Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti
MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA) X
Israel, an uncertain future: elections have decreed a clear victory for the right-wing bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu, which won 64 seats out of 120. But the exploits of the religious and far-right mortgages the future of the government. King Bibi will have to compromise with his allies. The leader of the Religious Zionism electoral cartel, Bezalel Smotrich, is expected to get the post of finance minister. But his party could also get smaller posts in the defense ministry, but linked to the management of illegal settlements in the West Bank. This possibility worries international observers and could undermine the new path of cooperation and dialogue with some of the new Arab allies. The Likud leader will thus have to balance the extremism of his allies regarding domestic and international dossiers.
(Michele Magistretti)
Palestine, the UN General Assembly recognizes the Palestinian "Nakba". On December 1, the United Nations General Assembly approved a resolution commemorating the 75th anniversary of the "Nakba" (lit. catastrophe), i.e. the series of violence and forced expulsions perpetrated by Zionist militias in conjunction with the creation of the current State of Israel. According to the archives of the Palestinians’ Diaspora, at least 15,000 Palestinians died and 750,000 became refugees in neighboring countries, first of all Jordan and Lebanon. The symbol of the "Nakba" is a key, a reminder of the house where one hopes to be able to return one day. The UN resolution was obviously criticized by the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations; the Palestinian ambassador, on the other hand, welcomed the international organization's recent position, expressing concern about the risk of a deviation from the two-state solution following the far-right orientation of the (almost) new government of the Jewish state. The two-state solution, not shared by the current government majority in Israel, is also considered obsolete by Palestinian civil society and academia: the Israeli presence in the occupied Territories, given by colonies and settlements contrary to international law, would in fact empty the narrative within the Two Peoples, Two States solution.
(Sara Oldani)
Tunisia, the International Organization of Francophonie meets in Djerba. The 18th Francophonie summit took place between 19th and 20th of November in the tunisian island of Djerba. This is a biannual event that groups 88 countries bound together by French culture. The organization was entrusted to Tunisia in 2018 by the will of Emmanuel Macron: the meeting had to be held initially in Paris, but the head of the Elysée decided to give that privilege to the, at the time, young Tunisian democracy. The summit, initially scheduled for December 2020, suffered a two-year delay officially attributed to Covid. However, the coup de main of the Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed, who suspended the Parliament in July 2021, also played an important role. In this regard, it is not a secret that Justin Trudeau, the Canadian Prime Minister, threatened till the end not to participate in protest against the ongoing authoritarian turn in Tunisia.
(Francesco Lorenzini)
Sara Oldani, Michele Magistretti and Francesco Lorenzini
TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
Burkina Faso, 90.000 volunteers enrolled to fight against the Jihad. 90.000 Volunteers for the Defence of the Fatherland (VDP in French) were recruited by the Burkinabe army in the space of a month. They are all civilians who responded to the call to arms launched at the end of October by the President of the transitional government, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, to support the armed forces in the increasing harsh clashes with jihadist groups. The volunteers will receive a 14-day training, weapons, and other equipment. Then, they will be reunited in local brigades in defense of villages and rural areas. The initiative shows the difficulties the new military junta, who seized power on September 30th, is encountering in managing the ongoing security crisis. With two military putsches in nine months and large parts of the country in the hands of terrorist organizations heading for the capital city Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso risks to become the next failed State.
(Francesco Lorenzini)
Ghana, the common terroristic threat urges the Accra Initiative leaders to meet. The International Conference on the Accra Initiative took place in Ghana on November 21st and 22nd. The Accra Initiative is a cooperative security mechanism that regroups five west African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Togo). The central topic of the event was the increasing pressure of jihadist groups on the region, now arrived at the norther frontier of the coastal countries of the group. Among those invited there were the British Armed Forces Minister, James Heappey and the European Council President, Charles Michel. They both reaffirmed British and European willingness to assist regional actors to fight terrorism, but without imposing any solution to the problem. In the last year UK and several European countries reduced their participation in antiterrorism operations in Mali: a further cause of concern for the Accra Initiative leaders, obliged to fill the gap that follows.
(Francesco Lorenzini)
Afghanistan, bombing at a Koranic school in the north of the country. Seventeen people - all minors - were killed in the bombing at a madrasa in Aybak, Samangan province. Although there has been no claim of responsibility yet, suspicion for the authorities in Kabul falls on ISIS-K, a terrorist cell of the self-styled Islamic State operating in the Khorasan region. Last Wednesday's was the second major attack carried out inside a school in a matter of months; on Sept. 30, a suicide bomb attack at a Kabul school had killed 30 girls.
(Davide Shahhosseini)
Syria, ISIS announces death of leader Abu al Hasan. The news of the death of Abu al Hasan, who has led the terrorist group since March, and spread by the Islamic State's own propaganda organs, has been confirmed by Washington. According to Colonel Joe Buccino, spokesman for the U.S. Department of Defense, al Hasan was reportedly killed last October in a firefight with the Free Syrian Army in Dar'a syrian province.
(Davide Shahhosseini)
Davide Shahhosseini and Francesco Lorenzini
Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.
Andrea Ghilardi: Sub-Saharan Africa
Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union
Chiara Giovannoni: Human Rights
Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security
Elisa Maggiore: Latin America
Federico Pani: North America
Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security
Francesco Rossi: Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa
Laura Salvemini: Asia and the Far East
Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance
Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights
Ludovica Costantini: Latin America
Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa
Rosario Giorgio Maria Saffioti: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia
Samuele Abrami: Middle-East and North Africa
Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa