Framing The World, Edizione CXXI

Framing The World, CXXI Edition

HUMAN RIGHTS

ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

WESTERN EUROPE AND EUROPEAN UNION

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

HUMAN RIGHTS

Russia: Aleksei Navalny Disappears from Prison Records. The renowned Russian political activist has mysteriously vanished from the prison records where he was serving an unjust 19-year sentence. Currently, his fate and the exact location of his detention are unknown. The management of the IK-6 penal colony in Melekhovo, in the Vladimir region, has informed Navalny's lawyer of his removal, refusing to disclose the new place of custody. Videoconference hearings on allegations of detention conditions were halted since December 7, presumably due to an electrical failure. Navalny's imminent transfer to a "unified penitentiary confinement cell" for alleged rule violations raises concerns about his health, given the prolonged isolation and lack of adequate care. The situation underscores doubts about transparency and fairness in the Russian penal system.

(Sofia Ena)

Uganda, activists appeal against Anti-Homesexuality Act. On Monday 18 December, civil society groups in Uganda will meet with Constitutional Court judges in an attempt to overturn the world's toughest anti-LGBTQ+ law. The law, which came into force in May, provides for the death penalty and life imprisonment for certain homosexual acts and up to 20 years in prison for anyone who supports LGBT rights, including representatives of human rights organisations. The law has attracted widespread international criticism to the extent that last week the United States imposed visa restrictions on hundreds of Ugandan legislators and their families for their involvement in the enactment of the law.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

Sofia Ena and Lorenzo Franceschetti

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND FINANCE

Fed, rate cuts in 2024? For the third consecutive meeting, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at between 5.25 % and 5.50 %, at 22-year highs. The real news, however, came from the press conference following the meeting, in which Chairman Powell revealed that Board members had already discussed potential rate cuts during 2024, a revelation that turbocharged Wall Street, with the Dow Jones setting a new all-time high and the S&P 500 closing just below all-time highs. Analysis of the governors' individual positions also shows that 3 rate cuts are planned for 2024, for a 75 basis point decline. However, Powell continues to preach caution, warning that the downward trend in inflation is not guaranteed and that one should not declare victory prematurely.

Argentina, a turnaround in the economy. Javier Milei, Argentina's newly installed president, has announced the first economic measures to try to remedy the dire state of the South American country's economy. Among them are the devaluation of the peso by 50 % against the dollar (which actually goes to fix the gap between the official and "black" exchange rates), cuts in public spending, the gradual reduction of subsidies on energy and transportation, the elimination of the import authorization system, but also the doubling of the universal child allowance and a 50 % increase in the food card. The IMF's communications director welcomed the new president's turnaround, saying that "these bold initial actions aim to significantly improve public finances so as to protect the most vulnerable in society and strengthen the exchange rate regime."

Leonardo Aldeghi

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Sudan, violence spreads eastwards. The country, divided since 15 April by the civil war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary group Rapid Support Force (RSF), is currently witnessing the progressive extension of the conflict towards the outskirts of Wad Madany. Until now the city, capital of al -Jazira state, 180 kilometres south of Khartoum, had not been involved in the fighting and tens of thousands of civilians had found refuge there. According to the UN, at least 12,000 civilians were killed during these eight months of war.

Congo, fear of fraud looms over elections. Uncertainty hangs over the presidential, legislative and local elections scheduled for 20 December in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The country has been ruled since 2018 by Felix Tshisekedi, who was responsible for imposing a state of emergency in some eastern parts of the country in 2021 due to the resumption of armed attacks by the Rwandan-backed M23 movement. However, also thanks to pressure from the Catholic Church, Tshisekedi finally decided to call general elections. According to analysts, the current president will be challenged for the leadership of the country by Moïse Katumbi, governor of Katanga province, and Nobel Peace Prize-winning doctor Denis Mukwege. The prospect of widespread fraud has led the European Union to renounce sending observers, because the government has not guaranteed the availability of satellite telephones, the only tools that would allow real-time communication between the various areas of the country.

Aurelia Puliafito

NORTH AMERICA

United States of America: disorders in Latin America worry Biden. Following the increasingly concerning tensions at the border between Venezuela and Guyana, the United States has decided to conduct aerial operations in the area. The dispute revolves around the Essequibo region, rich in oil reserves, for which Venezuelan citizens voted for annexation. For this reason, the US Southern Command, aimed at supporting cooperation in Latin America, will conduct aerial operations in collaboration with the Guyanese military forces. According to the State Department, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has already spoken with Guyana's President, Irfaan Ali, to reassure him regarding the United States' continuous support for Guyana's legitimate sovereignty.

United States of America: New accusations of crimes against humanity towards Russia. The United States has accused four Russian soldiers for war crimes committed in April 2022 against an American citizen resident in the Kherson province, Ukraine. The charges laid out include kidnapping, subsequent torture, photographing the individual nude, and threatening. This marks the first instance where the American government has utilized an old law enabling them to prosecute individuals who have committed war crimes against US citizens. In an interview, the general attorney Merrick Garland described the incident as a significant step in defining the responsibilities concerning Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine, even though, at present, the two superpowers do not have an extradition agreement.

Lorenzo Graziani

LATIN AMERICA

Venezuela, negotiations with Guyana over Equisebo territory. A territory brimming with riches, including oil and natural resources, Equisebo is internationally recognized as part of Guyana but has been claimed by Venezuela for two centuries now. In early December Venezuela had held a referendum to annex the territory to the nation and received a positive response from the population. On Thursday, December 14, the presidents of the two states met to dialogue and agree on a claim to the territory that is nonviolent and follows international law. The communique following the meeting remains vague with plans, however, for a new dialogue, three months from now in Brazil, where Maduro, Irfaan Ali and a commission of foreign ministers and technicians will work to find a solution.

(Serena Basso)

Chile, another attempt to change the constitution. For years, the reform of the constitution has been at the center of Chilean politics, and on December 17, Chileans were called to vote on the new text for the second time. The center-left aimed to replace the one introduced by Pinochet over forty years ago, considered conservative despite various amendments. The 2019 protests, initially sparked by the cost of living, expanded social discontent towards the entire Chilean system. In 2022, a progressive and feminist proposal by the young president Gabriel Boric was rejected with 62% of votes against, deemed overly identity-focused and ambitious. The rejected 2022 Constitution defined Chile as a "plurinational state" to address the issues of Mapuche populations, but the new text makes no mention of indigenous peoples and simplifies the expulsion of migrants, especially Venezuelans. Pinochet's Constitution is likely to remain in effect, highlighting deep Chilean political polarization and the country's difficulty in definitively overcoming the provisions of the dictatorship era.

(Alessia Boni)

Peru, former President Alberto Fujimori released from prison. This was the decision of the Constitutional Tribunal in Lima on December 4. Two days later, Fujimori left his cell in Barbadillo prison. In poor health, the 85-year-old former Peruvian head of state was serving a 25-year prison sentence for crimes against humanity. In particular, he was held responsible for two massacres in the country. During the years of his rule, from 1990 to 2000, Peru experienced a period of dictatorship, with several restrictions on freedoms for citizens. For this reason, his release from prison was not well received, and in the days following the court's decision several demonstrations of popular dissent were held in Lima. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights also expressed opposition to Fujimori's release, since a pardon could not have been applied to a conviction such as his.

(Alessandro Dowlatshahi)

Alessandro Dowlatshahi, Serena Basso and Alessia Boni

ASIA AND THE FAR EAST

Hong Kong, sham trial against Jimmy Lai kicks off. On Monday 18 December the final trial for Jimmy Lai will begin and is expected to last three months. In 2020, Lai, a Hong Kong pro-democracy activist and founder of the Apple Daily, was arrested for supporting the opposition movement with his newspaper and for participating in the large popular demonstrations in 2019. For over three years, Lai has been detained in solitary confinement for 23 hours a day and is only allowed 50 minutes in the open air. Moreover, contrary to Hong Kong judicial custom, he has been denied the right to bail and prevented from choosing his own lawyer. Sarah Brooks, Amnesty International's Deputy Regional Director for China, criticised the Hong Kong authorities, calling the case an 'attack on press freedom and freedom of expression' and called for the immediate and unconditional release of Jimmy Lai.

(Lorenzo Franceschetti)

China, deflation worsens. Chinese consumer prices fell 0.5 % year-on-year in November, marking the steepest decline in three years, as the world's second-largest economy grapples with worsening deflation. Consumer prices fell more than the 0.2% expected in a Bloomberg survey of economists and exceeded October's 0.2% decline. By contrast, producer prices, influenced by the cost of raw materials, fell 3%. The deflationary trend comes on top of a number of economic pressures facing the country's policymakers, including the liquidity crisis in the real estate sector, weak trade data, and a slowdown in the recovery after three years of zero Covid policies and border closures, with consumer demand struggling to fully recover in 2023.

(Leonardo Adelghi)

WESTERN EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

EU, agreement found on digital platforms and anti-money laundering authority. On 13 December, the European Parliament announced that the Council and the Parliament had reached a political agreement on new rules that aim to improve the employment conditions of those working for digital platforms. There are approximately 40 million employees in the sector in Europe (a large proportion of whom are precarious workers); this agreement represents the first regulatory framework for these workers. At the same time, the EU Council and Parliament reached a further agreement to create the European Anti-Money Laundering Authority. This will be responsible for supervising the enforcement of the rules aimed at combating money laundering.

(Bianca Franzini)

Poland, Donald Tusk elected new prime minister. Donald Tusk, former president of the European Council, was elected prime minister by the Polish parliament with 248 votes in favour and 201 against. The incumbent prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, lost a vote of confidence on Monday, 11 December. The new election ends eight years of rule by the nationalist Law and Justice (Pis) party, which has been criticised for using the state media as a propaganda tool, for threatening the independence of the judiciary and for increasing prejudice against minorities. Tusk promised to mend relations between Poland and the European Union and to obtain the funds intended for the country that were withheld due to concerns about the rule of law. Tusk also stated that Poland would support Ukraine more, be a trusted ally of the United States and a more involved member of NATO.

(Bianca Franzini)

EU, green light to negotiations with Ukraine, Moldova, and Bosnia. As the European Council continues in Brussels, significant decisions have already been made. EU leaders have decided to grant Ukraine and Moldova the opening of accession negotiations and have also bestowed candidate status upon Georgia. President Charles Michel specified that the EU will commence negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina "once the necessary level of compliance with accession criteria is achieved" and has called on the Commission to report by March in anticipation of this decision. The determination to proceed was reached despite initial opposition from Orban, subsequently overcome by the choice not to use the veto but instead opt for constructive abstention.

(Sofia Ena)

Italy-Albania, suspension of the ratification of migrant agreement with Italy amid constitutional review. The ratification of the migrant agreement between Italy and Albania has been temporarily halted pending a ruling from the Albanian Constitutional Court on its legitimacy. This decision follows two appeals lodged by the opposition, members of the Democratic Party of Albania, center-right in orientation and opposed to Socialist Prime Minister Edi Rama. The Constitutional Court has announced that it will review the appeals asserting that the agreement violates the Albanian constitution and international norms. The Albanian parliament was supposed to initiate the ratification process last Thursday, but the procedure has been suspended until the Court issues its verdict, expected on January 18. If the Court sides with the opposition, the agreement could face a substantial blockage.

(Sofia Ena)

France, chamber rejects Macron's new immigration bill: The French government announced its intention to crack down on undocumented migrants, facing a political crisis following the rejection of its key immigration bill in the National Assembly. The opposition surprisingly voted against the legislation without debate, generating a political crisis and representing a defeat for President Emmanuel Macron. Following a crisis meeting, Macron decided to keep the bill's offer and send it back to a parliamentary committee. The president denounced the opposition's 'cynicism' and reiterated the need for an immigration law. The bill initially proposed by Macron was criticised by both the extreme right and the extreme left, generating heated debate on the issue. The legislation will now be examined by a joint parliamentary committee in an attempt to reach a compromise text. The decision to reject the initial legislation highlighted the complexity of government control amidst social and political tensions.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Bianca Franzini, Sofia Ena and Francesca Pasqualino

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND RUSSIA

Slovakia, thousands protest against Prime Minister Fico's proposed penal code reform. In recent days, thousands of Slovak citizens have taken to the streets in major cities across the country to protest against the penal code reform proposed by the new Prime Minister, Robert Fico. The government aims to abolish the office of the special prosecutor, responsible for investigating serious crimes such as fraud and organized crime, and transfer these responsibilities to regional offices. The proposal also includes a reduction in penalties for corruption. The President of Slovakia, Zuzana Caputova, and the European Commission have expressed concerns about the potential impact of this reform on the rule of law in the country. While the legislation is yet to be approved, the likelihood of its enactment is high, given that the governing coalition holds a majority in Parliament.

(Alessandro Alloro)

Serbia and Bulgaria, gas pipeline inaugurated to reduce dependency on Russian gas. On Sunday, December 10, a 170 km gas pipeline was inaugurated between Bulgaria and Serbia, allowing Serbia to import up to 400 million cubic meters of natural gas annually from Azerbaijan. The opening ceremony was attended by the Serbian, Bulgarian, and Azerbaijani presidents, and the project is seen as a move to diversify Serbia's energy supplies and ensure access to new gas sources, thereby reducing dependence on Russia. Serbia signed a long-term contract to import Russian gas last year, drawing critical attention from the European Union as it seeks to decrease its energy reliance on Russia.

(Alessandro Alloro)

Russia, offering $300 billion as a contribution to climate fund: Russia is considering using its frozen gold reserves to finance the Climate Damage Fund, providing assistance to developing countries. In an apparent effort to avoid the West's seizure of its frozen reserves, Russia's climate envoy told the COP28 summit that this move could help narrow the gap between developed and developing countries in addressing the climate crisis. However, it is unlikely to be agreed, as the West has already frozen over USD 300 billion of Russian international reserves in response to the offensive in Ukraine. Kiev hopes that the proceeds can contribute to the reconstruction of the country, but legal issues and future complications could make their use difficult. The Russian climate representative announced this possible initiative at the main stage of COP28 in Dubai.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Georgia celebrates gaining EU candidate status: The EU's historic decision on Thursday sparked celebrations in the streets of Tbilisi, with the government building lit up in EU colours. Although Georgia celebrates obtaining candidate status, Russia interprets this move as an attempt at provocation. On Friday in Kutaisi, the parliamentary assembly opened with the EU anthem, while Tbilisi was invaded by jubilant citizens with Georgian and European flags. Prime Minister Gharibashvili congratulated the Georgian people on this 'historic victory'. The EU, sending an 'important message to Russia', emphasised the symbolism of this decision, although the full path will take time. The Kremlin's irritated response considers the move 'absolutely politicised', fearing a destabilisation of the EU.

(Francesca Pasqualino)

Francesca Pasqualino and Alessandro Alloro

MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)

Saudi Arabia, signing of a "multi-sectoral" collaboration plan with Italy. Italian Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi met in Riyadh with his Saudi counterpart Abdulaziz bin Saud to discuss strengthening bilateral relations in the field of security and the fight against organized crime. This meeting resulted in the signing of a collaboration plan in various sectors including, in addition to those already mentioned, environmental, IT and infrastructural security, drug control and the fight against irregular migration. Minister Piantedosi stated that Saudi Arabia is "a partner of absolute importance", on which Italy can count to achieve "greater security in the Mediterranean area". Italy and Saudi Arabia maintain strong relations in the field of defense and security, although these issues are less known to the general public, starting from the foundation of the kingdom of al-Saud, with the formation and donation of the first nucleus of the Saudi air force by the Italian side and with the participation of both countries in a task force operating in the fight against the Islamic State starting from 2015.

(Sara Oldani)

Israel, between mistakes and horrors: the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is becoming increasingly critical. The Israeli army has also started operations in the southern part of the Palestinian enclave. While the death toll on both sides continues to rise, with considerable civilian casualties on the Palestinian side, incidents and unclear incidents are beginning to occur more frequently. The Israeli Defence Force has admitted to having mistakenly killed three hostages, France laments the murder of one of its own diplomats, and even the Jerusalem Patriarchate condemns the Israeli attack on a Catholic parish in Gaza in which two worshippers lost their lives. In the meantime, fears are growing about a possible Israeli offensive in South Lebanon. Should Israel and Hezbollah clash at the height of their war potential, the region would risk falling into a spiral of violence that would be difficult to stop.

(Michele Magistretti)

Michele Magistretti and Sara Oldani

TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Germany, 27 people charged with high treason. 27 people linked to the Reichsbürger movement - arrested in December 2022 as part of an anti-terrorist operation - were officially charged with conspiracy and preparation of subversive and terrorist acts aimed at overthrowing the country's established order. The defendants, including a former member of parliament belonging to the far-right AfD party and Prince Heinrich XIII, a descendant of an ancient noble family, will face separate hearings in courts in Frankfurt, Stuttgart and Munich. The alleged plan was that Prince Heinrich XIII would become the new head of state, while a system of 286 armed cells would impose the authority of the coup plotters on the rest of the country. According to the theory of the Reichsbürger, modern Germany is not a sovereign state but a trading society created by international potentates, which must be got rid of in order to regain its sovereignty and reconstitute a great German Reich.

Hong Kong, hunt for five pro-democracy movement activists. Hong Kong police have offered a reward of one million Hong Kong dollars for information leading to the arrest of five pro-democracy activists who fled abroad: Johnny Fok, Tony Choi, Simon Cheng, Hui Wing-ting and Joey Siu. The latter are accused of violating the national security law introduced in 2020 under pressure from Beijing. The passing of the law was followed by numerous protests throughout the Chinese autonomous province, which led to hundreds of arrests. Simon Cheng, a former British consulate employee who had already been arrested during a trip to mainland China in 2019, was granted refugee status in the UK. According to leaks from the Hong Kong security organs, the other four had found shelter in the US. Both Washington and London criticised the decision on the reward.

Davide Shahhosseini

Framing The World is a project conceived and created by the collaboration between members of the team of Mondo Internazionale associates.

Alessandro Alloro: Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Alessandro Dowlatshahi: Latin America

Alessandra Tamponi: Asia and the Far East

Aurelia Puliafito: Sub-Saharan Africa

Bianca Franzini: Western Europe and the European Union

Davide Shahhosseini: Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Lorenzini: Middle East and North Africa, Terrorism and International Security

Francesco Oppia: Asia and Far East

Francesca Pasqualino: Western Europe and the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia

Giulio Cofini: Sub-Saharan Africa

Leonardo Aldeghi: Economics and International Finance

Lorenzo Franceschetti: Human Rights

Lorenzo Graziani: North America

Ludovica Costantini: Latin America

Michele Magistretti: Middle-East and North Africa

Sara Oldani: Middle-East and North-Africa

Serena Basso: Latin America