Franzoni Martina, Junior Researcher G.E.O Environment
Abstract
From 11th to 22nd November 2024 the Azerbaijan’s capital will host the 29th Conference of the parties (COP) of the United Nations. The Conference is a highly complex event and presents a challenge for the international context. The choice of Azerbaijan as host country was met with perplexity: the country, despite having started a transition to renewable energy, remains strongly linked to the fossil industry and it has a history of human rights violations and political disputes. Among the main challenges that COP29 will face is to increase climate investments, both for adaptation and mitigation, with particular attention to the developing countries. Another complexity is caused by the international political situation, characterized by conflicts and economic tensions, factors that will influence the availability and the willingness of the countries to engage in ambitious climate measures. COP29 will have to mediate between contrasting interests, attempting to promote a concrete effort towards climate finance, just transition and the adoption of shared instruments in an adverse global political context.
Introduction
COP28, held in Dubai in 2023, was an edition characterized by broad international participation, but also by criticism towards the United Arab Emirates, whose economy is based on hydrocarbons. With around 65,000 accredited attendees and strong media attention, this conference was the scene of crucial discussions on the future of global environmental policies. Among the main outcomes was an agreement called the UAE Consensus, which formally recognises the urgency of moving away from fossil fuels by 2050, and the activation of the Loss and Damage Fund, created to support developing countries in coping with the impacts of climate change. However, COP28 highlighted some important shortcomings, especially on the issue of adaptation and the limited availability of financial instruments for climate initiatives in the most vulnerable countries.
Next, the most relevant successes and weaknesses of COP28 will be analyzed, focusing on how emerging issues will influence COP29. With an economy based on fossil fuels, Azerbaijan is a controversial choice as host country. The 2024 conference will need to address a few key objectives: increasing climate support, strengthening adaptation and mitigation systems, and promoting a just transition to a low-carbon economy.
The legacy of COP28
In 2023, it was the United Arab Emirates that hosted COP28 in Dubai. This edition was characterized by a large attendance, (there were in fact about 65,000 accredited participants and 25,000 spectators), but also by a strong series of criticisms directed mainly at the choice of host state. The UAE is one of the main oil-producing countries and the hydrocarbon sector is what drives the federation’s economy.
Through the conference, an agreement was reached, dubbed the UAE Consensus, in which the need to move away from fossil fuels was formally recognised. The achievement of the declaration was considered by many experts as substantial, but also belated. Furthermore, it should be specified that the agreement constitutes a declaration of intent, thus strongly subject to the political will of each country. The agreement envisages the achievement of net zero oil production by 2050, which will be achieved through a gradual shift away from the use of fossil fuels.
Together with the decrease of hydrocarbons, the agreement calls for the parties to triple the production of energy from renewable sources by 2030 and double the global annual average rate of energy efficiency improvements.
Among the main achievements of the 28th Conference of the Parties was the signing of the agreement that made the Loss and Damage Fund, considered to be the main financial instrument of climate justice, operational. The purpose of the Fund is to financially support developing countries, which are more exposed to climate change consequences. The driving idea behind the Fund is that it is the most polluting entity that will economically help the damaged countries. Furthermore, it has been decided that the World Bank will make this Fund operational. Unfortunately, the negotiations did not entirely satisfy the developing countries, as one of their desires was to decrease dependence on financing models heavily influenced by Western countries, and the mechanism thus outlined did not achieve this goal.
Undoubtedly, a surprising outcome of COP28 is the growth evident in climate diplomacy. Some 200 states came together to discuss a common problem, trying to find shared agreements. The environmental topic confirms itself as one of the issues that most succeed in bringing the different countries of the world together around one table.
Among the major gaps left over from the last edition, the most worrying one concerns adaptation to rising temperatures and the management of the negative consequences of climate change. In this regard, what experts are most concerned about are the financial instruments. Scholars are convinced that, without the financial sector, it will not be possible to win the fight against climate change. Despite the signing of the agreement on the Loss and Damage Fund, it is feared that the funding that will be allocated will not be sufficient.
Finally, at COP28, one of the most controversial topics was the introduction of the concept of ‘transitional fuels’, referring in particular to natural gas. This formulation implies that gas, although is a fossil fuel, can continue to be used as a temporary ‘bridge’ in the transition to a low-carbon future.
Many experts said that what was decided at COP28 cannot be called a milestone, as was claimed by Emirates summit chairman Sultan al Jaber, but rather a compromise to allow even oil-producing countries to join the fight against climate change.
Azerbaijan between hydrocarbons and green transition
As for the previous edition, there was much criticism of the host country at COP29. Thanks to fossil fuels, Azerbaijan has won the title of the richest state in the Caucasus. In addition to its status as a major polluter, the country has a bad reputation when it comes to respecting human rights:Azerbaijan was accused of ethnic cleansing in the Nagorno Karabakh province by the European Parliament in October 2023 and has repeatedly restricted the space for NGOs and civil society actors through a series of increasing government repressions, including the imprisonment of environmental activists, in the run-up to the conference itself.
Moreover, the hydrocarbon sector is closely linked to the political life of the country. Suffice it to say that the head of SOCAR, the state oil company, answers directly to the Azerbaijani president, who holds the power to appoint and dismiss members of the governing bodies of the company. Since the 1990s, there have been numerous allegations of corruption in connection with investments in the oil sector; some investors have claimed that they had to pay sums of money to the family of former president Heydar Aliyev to obtain rights to deals in the sector.
The classification of natural gas as transitional fuel was particularly appreciated by Baku. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many European states have redirected their demand for gas to Azerbaijan and by 2027 the country intends to further increase exports. In addition, energy trade has enabled the establishment of favorable relations not only with Italy, but also with several Eastern European countries; the European Commission itself has described the country as a reliable partner. The ties with the West were then fundamental when the COP29 presidency was assigned.
In light of the fact that the reorientation of global energy demand towards renewable sources could cause negative consequences for the country’s economy, Azerbaijan has been leading an energy transition towards renewables in recent years, especially by investing in solar and wind energy. The national strategy indicates a desire to reach 24% of total electricity production through renewables in 2026.
Although Baku’s initial green turn can be seen, on the other hand, total expenditure in this area is still low, and the government is still fully committed to the hydrocarbon sector, defining renewables and fossil fuels as two complementary areas.
More generally, holding the presidency of such important conferences that bring together a large number of state parties is not easy. Azerbaijan’s historical neutrality and its position in the Non-Aligned Countries Movement could help Baku mediate between different interests, including those of developing countries, fossil fuel-producing states and major powers.
COP29 perspectives
The improvement and identification of instruments for adaptation and mitigation, with a focus on climate finance will certainly be the main theme of the conference in November 2024. Considering this macro-objective, it is possible to identify a number of key fields on which parties will have to dialogue in order to find common solutions.
Climate finance: As mentioned above, without the contribution of finance, the fight against climate change cannot be won. The financial agreement concluded during COP28, which envisages the investment of 100 billion dollars per year by developed countries towards developing countries, appears entirely symbolic. A new quantified collective target in the trillions is needed. On the public side, subsidies and solidarity taxes will be discussed; on the other hand, there is also a need to attract private individuals into this mission. Unfortunately, the financial issue is one of the most difficult, the parties have difficulty reaching a consensus on how much should be invested and who should do it.
Loss and Damage Fund: this is a related topic to climate finance and specifically concerns the direction the funds should take. In general, investments should be directed towards mitigating the impacts of climate change, adaptation, and supporting countries in managing loss and damage. In this process, Western countries are pushing for China and India (considered developing countries but with much higher incomes than the other states in the group) to contribute to the fund. The two states have repeatedly declined the request. In order to ensure the fund’s operability, it will be absolutely necessary to settle this dispute.
Adaptation and Mitigation: In this respect, there is a need to improve planning and implementation. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) is an international commitment to strengthen climate change adaptation actions, as set out in the Paris Agreement. Countries are encouraged to review and enhance their adaptation strategies in National Contributions (NDCs) to make them consistent with this new goal. Discussions will focus both on finding the necessary resources to support initiatives in the most vulnerable areas and on creating tools and indicators to assess progress. This will allow efforts to be measured more precisely and adaptation to be integrated into national planning instruments.
Just Transition: is a cross-cutting issue that is gaining in importance. This term refers to the fact that the green transition must be conducted in a fair, inclusive and sustainable manner for all segments of society. From a socio-economic point of view, the energy transition could have negative consequences for some segments of the world’s population, especially those related to the hydrocarbon sector. Through this approach, it is therefore possible to adopt proactive policies that mitigate the socio-economic impacts of the transition and through this mitigation, increase the rate of acceptability by the population of climate policies.
Conclusion
COP29 represents a crucial test case for international climate diplomacy, which faces new and pressing challenges in a turbulent geopolitical context. The choice of Azerbaijan as the host country underlines the tensions and contradictions associated with the global energy transition: a country that still remains strongly linked to hydrocarbons, but with the ambition to position itself as a reliable partner for the European Union and promoter of renewable energies, will lead a conference destined to influence international climate policy.
The effectiveness of COP29 will depend on the ability of participating countries to overcome divisions and challenge their own limitations, especially with regard to climate finance and the issue of adaptation. Expectations are high, but political conditions - including conflicts, economic tensions - further complicate reaching ambitious and binding agreements. A successful COP29 will require realistic compromises and a shared commitment based on a sense of global responsibility and the need for a ‘just transition’ involving all parties, including fossil fuel producing countries.
Ultimately, COP29 could mark an important step or a setback for the path to climate sustainability, depending on the collective will to take concrete measures and overcome traditional political and economic imbalances. The legacy of the conference will depend not only on formal commitments, but also on the ability to initiate real change towards a more equitable and sustainable energy future for all.
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